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a next level Quinnen Williams is just what the doc ordered


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29 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Top 50 means there's a guy on every team better than him - and a 2nd guy on 18 teams better than him...

IMO, that's not really that good.  

 

It’s all defensive linemen, including edge rushers (who compose the majority of the list), and he’s on the high end of the double team scale. Based on the other list he’s fourth in win rate among defensive tackles. Of course edge rushers are going to have higher win rates than defensive tackles but your “guy on every team better” comment isn’t apples to apples at all.

I don’t think he’s elite. Perhaps that’s your definition of not that good - it’s not my definition of not that good.

And your initial comment was that his win rate is very low. For his position, it’s absolutely not. Just own that you misread the graph.

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Quinnen is going to shine when he is lining up next to an actual edge rusher. That or the edge rusher lining up next to Quinnen is going to shine. He is a good player, and we need re-sign players of Quinnen's caliber if we ever expect to build a winning team. Constantly looking for the next big thing is going to get us what we keep getting. 

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5 minutes ago, tfine said:

21 million? Vita Vea got 4 years 73 million…42 guaranteed. Which is really 11 per year minus the incentives. No way Quinnen gets a bigger contract than that.

$21M per is what Leonard Williams and DeForest Buckner make, and there is zero reason for QW's agent to accept a dime less than that.  Just because QW wasn't drafted by Douglas nor produces like a top DT doesn't mean he and his agent aren't going to demand DT money that pays him like a top 4 DT.  He was still a # 3 overall pick and he has no real incentive to give the Jets a hometown discount.  

That's why I'm against even beginning to negotiate with QW this offseason.  Make him prove he is a top 5 pass-rushing DT in this league next year before handing him an enormous new contract.  Because whether he signs a new deal this offseason or next, it's going to be a massive payday regardless.

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1 hour ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

That his win rate is the fifth highest in the league? 4th highest when you remove aliens. 

Per this chart QW is also comparable/wins more often than Jonathan Allen who had 9 sacks. 

An extremely distant 5th.  Is it not concerning to you that he's much, much closer to Ed Oliver and Tershawn Wharton than he is Chris Jones or Javon Hargrave?

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1 hour ago, derp said:

I guess what’s important in that graph is those are the top 50 players in the league in win rate. So put another way he’s on the low end of the top 50 win rate guys (still pretty good company) and despite getting doubled a lot.

He is what he is. Good to very good player, not Aaron Donald. If he wants to come back he can get re-signed to a reasonable deal. If he wants to be the highest paid DT in the league let someone else do it.

He doesn't have to get # 1 DT money for his deal to be unreasonable.  The top 5 DT salaries are as follows:

  1. Donald:  $22.5M per
  2. Leonard Williams / DeForest Buckner:  $21M per
  3. Chris Jones:  $20M per
  4. Jonathan Allen:  $18M per
  5. Kenny Clark:  $17.5M per

And he has zero incentive to accept a dime less than Leo or Buckner.  The lowest we could probably get him to sign for is for Chris Jones money.   

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11 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Can’t speak for anyone else, but I don’t want to pay him Leonard Williams money even if he takes the “next step” next season, whatever it looks like.  

Let his 2nd contract be taken on by someone else.  

I can see the headlines now:

"Quinnen Williams signs with _____________ for _______ in free agency."

I can hear Jets fans now:

"FIRE JD!" Can't keep homegrown talent at a good price!"

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1 minute ago, CanadaSteve said:

I can see the headlines now:

"Quinnen Williams signs with _____________ for _______ in free agency."

I can hear Jets fans now:

"FIRE JD!" Can't keep homegrown talent at a good price!"

If Douglas really wants to, he could franchise QW in 2024 and 2025.  He could also look to trade him at any time.  As we know, he doesn't tend to lose out in trades. 

There's absolutely no reason to rush to do this, and given that QW would probably sign a market-setting DT deal in free agency (or close to it), I highly doubt anybody would be complaining that JD let him go.  

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7 hours ago, rangerous said:

the team seems to play better with quincy out there as opposed to davis.  williams is all over the place and has enough speed and talent to cover people coming over the middle.  his only real issue besides inexperience is height but there have been quite a few sub 6' linebackers.

Quinen's brother Quincy is the short LB. Quinen is the 6'3'' lazy DT who doesn't

make plays. There were 13 D lineman taken in his draft class at least 11 have played

better than him. Never produced like the third player in the draft, I'm not sure if

his play level equaled a good third round player.  Christian Barmore the 6th pick

in the second round immensely outplayed him. We lose by drafting over rated , over

hyped players like Quinen Williams, Jamal Adams and softy Becton

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I continue to believe that good teams should pick solid DTs like this in the last half of the first round, play them through their 5 year option, if not FT, and then let them walk.   Taking Quinnen at 3 on a bad team to begin with was just stupid.  

The redraft pick there was Josh Allen, Brian Burns or even Devin White.   Even a reach for Jonah Williams if he could be a 10 year tackle.   Not Quinnen.  

Leonard Williams just in part got Gettleman fired.   The WFT does not have a QB to pay (neither do the Giants).   Kenny Clark money is probably closer to reasonable. 

But at this point I would count on Quinnen being here another 2 years, with a third if JD cannot find a replacement in the 2nd or 3rd round before then.  

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I continue to believe that good teams should pick solid DTs like this in the last half of the first round, play them through their 5 year option, if not FT, and then let them walk.   Taking Quinnen at 3 on a bad team to begin with was just stupid.  
The redraft pick there was Josh Allen, Brian Burns or even Devin White.   Even a reach for Jonah Williams if he could be a 10 year tackle.   Not Quinnen.  
Leonard Williams just in part got Gettleman fired.   The WFT does not have a QB to pay (neither do the Giants).   Kenny Clark money is probably closer to reasonable. 
But at this point I would count on Quinnen being here another 2 years, with a third if JD cannot find a replacement in the 2nd or 3rd round before then.  


This. You never give a DT a big second contract unless they are truly playing at a level that is on a HoF trajectory. More often than not the player will not live up to the big contract. These are big guys with a shorter NFL career span and more prone to injury. Add to that the difference in game day impact between a guy like Q and guys like Foley is really negligible. Grab DT’s late and often and rotate them. The only time to “invest” in a DT is when it’s a final piece to a stout D on a competitive team (see TB for example)


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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He doesn't have to get # 1 DT money for his deal to be unreasonable.  The top 5 DT salaries are as follows:

  1. Donald:  $22.5M per
  2. Leonard Williams / DeForest Buckner:  $21M per
  3. Chris Jones:  $20M per
  4. Jonathan Allen:  $18M per
  5. Kenny Clark:  $17.5M per

And he has zero incentive to accept a dime less than Leo or Buckner.  The lowest we could probably get him to sign for is for Chris Jones money.   

I oversimplified but it’s very likely his contract is going to be difficult to justify with solid peripherals but a true breakout happening in what’s effectively a contract year at the earliest.

That list is a neat example of why teams who hit on elite elite guys do so well - Donald is so damn good it’s crazy how little the gap is between him and some of the others on this list. The in between guys like Williams are just tough.

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10 minutes ago, derp said:

I oversimplified but it’s very likely his contract is going to be difficult to justify with solid peripherals but a true breakout happening in what’s effectively a contract year at the earliest.

That list is a neat example of why teams who hit on elite elite guys do so well - Donald is so damn good it’s crazy how little the gap is between him and some of the others on this list. The in between guys like Williams are just tough.

Yeah, Donald is really a bargain at his price.  He's easily the most valuable non-QB in the league, yet he makes less than TJ Watt, DeAndre Hopkins, Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack, Trent Williams and David Bakhtiari. 

15 QB's make more than Donald, too, and several don't really deserve it (particularly Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, and perhaps Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr).  

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Ive been a QW skeptic since the day he arrived, and other than a few games here and there I continue to be a skeptic.

PFF gave him a 64.4 overall grade (40 out of 127 DTS) this year, which is well under his previous year value.

Was it injury?  Was it scheme fit?  Was it lack of interest?  What I saw was a player that wasnt particularly good at pass rushing when he was playing disciplined football, who got a few coverage sacks that boosted his number early in the year.  Then he switched to being a more aggressive pass rusher, and got one or two big sacks but then his run D took a nose dive and really hurt the team (he is responsible for many of those huge gaping holes in run D this year as he was frequently caught out of position).  Most of his big games this year were when he was going up against backup players, which is concerning.

He is Leonard Williams part 2.  Good but not great.  Tons of athletic talent.  Not good enough to really be the guy you were hoping for.

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3 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Quinnen is going to shine when he is lining up next to an actual edge rusher. That or the edge rusher lining up next to Quinnen is going to shine. He is a good player, and we need re-sign players of Quinnen's caliber if we ever expect to build a winning team. Constantly looking for the next big thing is going to get us what we keep getting. 

Every player doesn’t need to be all pro.   I 100% agree that he is the kind of player you need to keep.  

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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

$21M per is what Leonard Williams and DeForest Buckner make, and there is zero reason for QW's agent to accept a dime less than that.  Just because QW wasn't drafted by Douglas nor produces like a top DT doesn't mean he and his agent aren't going to demand DT money that pays him like a top 4 DT.  He was still a # 3 overall pick and he has no real incentive to give the Jets a hometown discount.  

That's why I'm against even beginning to negotiate with QW this offseason.  Make him prove he is a top 5 pass-rushing DT in this league next year before handing him an enormous new contract.  Because whether he signs a new deal this offseason or next, it's going to be a massive payday regardless.

Franchise tag. 

Make him earn it three years in row. 

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1 hour ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Every player doesn’t need to be all pro.   I 100% agree that he is the kind of player you need to keep.  

It's easy to say this.  But how much are you willing to pay him?

Dave Gettleman got fired in large part because he paid Leonard Williams $21M per to have limited impact on the field.  

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9 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Franchise tag. 

Make him earn it three years in row. 

Yep.  Currently, the franchise tag value for a DT is $16.9M.  If we tag him a 2nd time, that escalates to $20.3M.  $18.6M per over those 2 years would be a good price. 

And there would be nothing he could do except demand a trade.  Given Douglas' ability to "win trades", I'd be OK with that.    

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Quinnen’s franchise year is Zach’s fourth year.  Let him play hard while Zach is cheap.  When Zach needs to be paid, Quinnen could go play for a team that is not paying a QB.   If Quinnen is that good, like Vita Vea, when Zach needs to be paid, then you find a way to pay him.  

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10 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

There is 0 need to even think about paying Quinnen long term for another 2 years.  You let him play next year under his current contract and if he plays well, exercise his 5th year option.

The 5th year option has to be exercised by May of this year.  They can't wait until after the 2022 season to decide on it.  

Since that 5th year option only will cost $13.6M, its a no-brainer that Douglas will exercise it.

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17 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Can’t speak for anyone else, but I don’t want to pay him Leonard Williams money even if he takes the “next step” next season, whatever it looks like.  

Let his 2nd contract be taken on by someone else.  

You won’t be paying him anything.

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