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a next level Quinnen Williams is just what the doc ordered


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On 1/10/2022 at 2:31 AM, 92ShaunEllis92 said:

His numbers are comparable to felloow ‘19 draftee DT Jeffrey Simmons who is considered a game wrecker for the #1 seeded Titans. 
 

If either Carl Lawson can return to be what the organization hoped for when originally signed as a FA OR the ‘22 draft yields a pass rushing edge that OLines can’t ignore, Quentin Williams will have an All-Pro year in 2022.

Book it. 

Simmons would eat Quinnen for breakfast lol.

Cant even compare the two.

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On 1/10/2022 at 12:55 PM, FidelioJet said:

Top 50 means there's a guy on every team better than him - and a 2nd guy on 18 teams better than him...

IMO, that's not really that good.  

 

I don’t see from that graph of the top 50 that he is at the bottom of the top 50, but rather closer to the top.  How do you see that he is at the bottom?

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5 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

I don’t see from that graph of the top 50 that he is at the bottom of the top 50, but rather closer to the top.  How do you see that he is at the bottom?

There are two data points in the chart. Bottom (left to relight) is double teams.  He’s near the top of that (far right) the left side (up and down) he’s near the bottom (down) of the chart.  
 

in other words, he gets doubled a lot but also isn’t get much penetration. 

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

There are two data points in the chart. Bottom (left to relight) is double teams.  He’s near the top of that (far right) the left side (up and down) he’s near the bottom (down) of the chart.  
 

in other words, he gets doubled a lot but also isn’t get much penetration. 

Yeah ... he doesn't do well against the double teams. Good player ... not a dominant player.

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On 1/10/2022 at 2:12 PM, tfine said:

 


21 million? Vita Vea got 4 years 73 million…42 guaranteed. Which is really 11 per year minus the incentives. No way Quinnen gets a bigger contract than that.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

That’s not what guaranteed means. It doesn’t mean that’s how much he’s guaranteed to get paid with the payments stretched over 4 years. Without looking it up, in his case, it likely means that’s how much he’s guaranteed to get over the first 2 years (maybe some is guaranteed in y3 but just round off to the nearest 1 year). The balance is paid in the latter 2 years, but those 2 latter years aren’t guaranteed.

Look at it this way:

1st 2 years = fully guaranteed = 2 years $42MM guaranteed ($21MM per)

2nd 2 years = not guaranteed = 2 years  $31MM not-guaranteed ($15.5MM per)

More likely it’s not this clean, and he has about half his y3 money guaranteed (or guaranteed for injury at least), but if he was somehow cut after 2 seasons that’d still end up as above: $21MM for 2 years of service to the Bucs.

Also “guaranteed” is itself vague, as it doesn’t say whether it’s fully guaranteed at signing; or whether it’s partly as a second wave of guarantees that kicks in if he’s still on the roster on the 5th day of the 2023 season or something (still likely to occur); or whether a certain amount of the guarantees are for injury only (e.g. $8MM of his y3 compensation guaranteed against injury, like if he goes on IR in December or something the Bucs can’t just walk away from it). 

Anyway it’s not that $11MM/year is guaranteed & payable over 4 years with the rest (another $7MM/year) as performance incentives he has to reach each season.

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46 minutes ago, Barton said:

Solid player but he said this last year too.

If you notice, he doesnt use his hands that well. Rarely beats the block off the snap and gets to the QB. More of a bull rush/rip move player.

I’m not trying to act like I’m a football scout. But keeping it simple at age 23 last year he had 7 sacks. This year he has 6. I understand there is no to DL play than sacks however he seems to be a good player that someone (based on the economics of the sport) will pay him like he’s a really good player. 

I would kick the can….let him play out his 4th year next year and see what happens. If he’s solid again but not great, let him play on his 5th year option. 

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1 minute ago, KINGDIRK said:

I’m not trying to act like I’m a football scout. But keeping it simple at age 23 last year he had 7 sacks. This year he has 6. I understand there is no to DL play than sacks however he seems to be a good player that someone (based on the economics of the sport) will pay him like he’s a really good player. 

I would kick the can….let him play out his 4th year next year and see what happens. If he’s solid again but not great, let him play on his 5th year option. 

I agree completely ... kick the can .. Franchise him if he surprises.

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58 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Yeah ... he doesn't do well against the double teams. Good player ... not a dominant player.

I’m going to take an opposite position I ordinarily would here, because it just rubs me the wrong way when players conveniently wait until after the last game - in his case literally 2 days after the last game - to boast about what he’s gonna do next year, as he’s about to enter months of vacation.

That said…

Is $18MM/yr really still the type of money reserved only for dominant players? Will it be in 2024 when the first year of that extension kicks in, under a salary cap ceiling in the $225MM range? 

If he was an objectively bad or mediocre player, the hell with extending him (especially at this point). If he has the potential to be a difference maker with one - never mind two - legit edge rushers on the field with him (C.Lawson + a top 5-10 pick), either by getting freed up himself or by drawing attention to free up at least one of them, he might be worth extending early anyway. But it also depends on what he’s demanding.

Does he already think he’s earned a $22MM/yr extension, or would he take $18MM/yr to get it done upwards of 2 years earlier? It makes a difference if his rate is just 30% or whether it’s a solid 60% more than JFM’s. If the former, I’d wait; if the latter, it’s probably worth the risk. He’s going to be on the team for 2 more years anyway, while the team decidedly isn’t having cap issues, and that’d be the timeframe in which his most of his extension guarantees expire anyway. Unless there’s serious doubt as to exercising his 5th year option, it seems like more of a risk than it is in reality. 

The money’s not necessarily better spent putting it towards 4+ more of others’ $3-5MM/yr castoffs, which is what Douglas has been doing with it so far in keeping/signing the likes of GVR, Feeney, Rankins, J.Davis, Joyner, and Lewis (before he retired in Aug) = ~$30MM just signed on for in the last spring alone. With the 2021 draft in the rearview mirror, and another draft of 4 top 40 picks coming up (on top of whatever pans out from rounds 3 and later), they should need fewer such stopgap/depth players anyway.

It’s not that he’s objectively worth superstar $ already. But the timing’s right where, depending on what he’d take to get it done early, the Jets could take this shot without badly shooting themselves in the foot. 

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Who do you think Douglas is going to pay? Who do you want him to pay?

Leonard Williams got 21. Jamal got 17.5 Darnold is getting almost 19 on the option.

Lawson got 15. Franklin-Myers 13.75. Davis 12.5. Fant and McGovern 9.

You draft a quarterback so you don't have to pay a quarterback. That's the only way you can plan on paying for anything else. Look at what's available in free agency. Davante Adams excepted, who do you think is getting the big contract they haven't given out yet?

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’m going to take an opposite position I ordinarily would here, because it just rubs me the wrong way when players conveniently wait until after the last game - in his case literally 2 days after the last game - to boast about what he’s gonna do next year, as he’s about to enter months of vacation.

That said…

Is $18MM/yr really still the type of money reserved only for dominant players? Will it be in 2024 when the first year of that extension kicks in, under a salary cap ceiling in the $225MM range? 

If he was an objectively bad or mediocre player, the hell with extending him (especially at this point). If he has the potential to be a difference maker with one - never mind two - legit edge rushers on the field with him (C.Lawson + a top 5-10 pick), either by getting freed up himself or by drawing attention to free up at least one of them, he might be worth extending early anyway. But it also depends on what he’s demanding.

Does he already think he’s earned a $22MM/yr extension, or would he take $18MM/yr to get it done upwards of 2 years earlier? It makes a difference if his rate is just 30% or whether it’s a solid 60% more than JFM’s. If the former, I’d wait; if the latter, it’s probably worth the risk. He’s going to be on the team for 2 more years anyway, while the team decidedly isn’t having cap issues, and that’d be the timeframe in which his most of his extension guarantees expire anyway. Unless there’s serious doubt as to exercising his 5th year option, it seems like more of a risk than it is in reality. 

The money’s not necessarily better spent putting it towards 4+ more of others’ $3-5MM/yr castoffs, which is what Douglas has been doing with it so far in keeping/signing the likes of GVR, Feeney, Rankins, J.Davis, Joyner, and Lewis (before he retired in Aug) = ~$30MM just signed on for in the last spring alone. With the 2021 draft in the rearview mirror, and another draft of 4 top 40 picks coming up (on top of whatever pans out from rounds 3 and later), they should need fewer such stopgap/depth players anyway.

It’s not that he’s objectively worth superstar $ already. But the timing’s right where, depending on what he’d take to get it done early, the Jets could take this shot without badly shooting themselves in the foot. 

 

He's not accepting $18M per.  That's # 4/5 DT money.  His agent would deservedly get fired for accepting that kind of deal.

He'll want Leo money and that should be out of the question at this time.  Make him earn that next year.  

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10 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

There are two data points in the chart. Bottom (left to relight) is double teams.  He’s near the top of that (far right) the left side (up and down) he’s near the bottom (down) of the chart.  
 

in other words, he gets doubled a lot but also isn’t get much penetration. 

Youre looking at the chart comparing him to all positions.   When you look at the chart comparing him to other defensive tackles he is near the top in win rate despite the high double team rate.   If you want to compare him to other positions to bolster your argument thats your prerogative but you can t replace him at defensive tackle with those guys.   Comparing apples to apples he is one of the best.

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9 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Youre looking at the chart comparing him to all positions.   When you look at the chart comparing him to other defensive tackles he is near the top in win rate despite the high double team rate.   If you want to compare him to other positions to bolster your argument thats your prerogative but you can t replace him at defensive tackle with those guys.   Comparing apples to apples he is one of the best.

I think my thinking is comparing him to other $20mm a year guys.  How impactful is he compared to them?  Isn’t that ultimately the exercise here?

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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think my thinking is comparing him to other $20mm a year guys.  How impactful is he compared to them?  Isn’t that ultimately the exercise here?

I agree with this - the way the NFL is headed, the only defensive players that deserve that kind of money have to be dominant. It doesn't really matter the position. It can be Micah Parsons, Chris Jones, or Jalen Ramsey. But right now, Quinnen is on that CJ Mosley track - good not great. And I don't care to sign those defensive players.

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2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I think my thinking is comparing him to other $20mm a year guys.  How impactful is he compared to them?  Isn’t that ultimately the exercise here?

No it isnt.  
You want to compare him to a 20 million dollar a year guy who cant do the entire job of a defensive tackle. News Flash-Its not just rush the passer.   If you want to compare him to 20 million dollar a year defensive tackles , he isnt Aaron Donald. But besides Donald and maybe a few others, he is one of the better players at his position.  

If youre going to compare him to all other guys who have more sacks, why not compare him to Jamal Adams?  Hes impactful and he is getting that kind of money. But Adams cant play  defensive tackle and has a hard time playing his own position when he isnt rushing.  For that matter, put Joey Bosa at defensive tackle and see how long he lasts.  You cant replace him with either one.  

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10 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

No it isnt.  
You want to compare him to a 20 million dollar a year guy who cant do the entire job of a defensive tackle. News Flash-Its not just rush the passer.   If you want to compare him to 20 million dollar a year defensive tackles , he isnt Aaron Donald. But besides Donald and maybe a few others, he is one of the better players at his position.  

If youre going to compare him to all other guys who have more sacks, why not compare him to Jamal Adams?  Hes impactful and he is getting that kind of money. But Adams cant play  defensive tackle and has a hard time playing his own position when he isnt rushing.  For that matter, put Joey Bosa at defensive tackle and see how long he lasts.  You cant replace him with either one.  

Well, I didn't want to give Jamal Adams $20mm a year either.  

I get what you're saying, I do and you're not wrong -  But I don't see him a strong run defender either.  

If we lost QW I doubt the defense would have much of a short fall at all.  I'm not talking about Sacks - I'm talking about being a disruptive player - I just don't see that enough from QW to warrant such a large % of the cap.

Just an opinion...

 

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Well, I didn't want to give Jamal Adams $20mm a year either.  

I get what you're saying, I do and you're not wrong -  But I don't see him a strong run defender either.  

If we lost QW I doubt the defense would have much of a short fall at all.  I'm not talking about Sacks - I'm talking about being a disruptive player - I just don't see that enough from QW to warrant such a large % of the cap.

Just an opinion...

 

If he wasnt disruptive why do you think he  was so often double teamed?

The best defensive lines have multiple disruptive players.  Look at the Rams- Donald isnt the only guy on that line.  Other teams are forced to make hard decisions on who to block.  When Williams plays with Lawson and who ever edge rusher the Jets presumably draft, I think you will see him unleashed.

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25 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

If he wasnt disruptive why do you think he  was so often double teamed?

The best defensive lines have multiple disruptive players.  Look at the Rams- Donald isnt the only guy on that line.  Other teams are forced to make hard decisions on who to block.  When Williams plays with Lawson and who ever edge rusher the Jets presumably draft, I think you will see him unleashed.

I get it, I honestly do but I've heard this song before.

We have a first round DT we drafted, he looks pedestrian - we draft another first round DT - and we hear, now watch - he can't be doubled anymore  -  look out!

and it's more of the same.

Honestly, I get what you're saying - I really do.  But been there, done that.  I'm just not going to buy it until I see it.  I certainly hope you're right.

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On 1/10/2022 at 8:34 AM, Dunnie said:

I dunno ... he is not a donald or a suh but hes good. I agree with not paying him ... if he dominates and is a game wrecker next year .. franchise him.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk
 

I think he still has his 5th year option too. So next year then 5th year option after that either re sign, franchise tag, or let walk 

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Meh or worse teams that don’t have a QB or other stars to pay that want to be competitive or just decent will pay QW so they don’t get embarrassed by other teams running all over them.  Like the Giants and Redskins.  

QW is a good guy and decent player, but just looking at him and his play he is not in the same class as a Jeffrey Simmons, drafted much lower.  Its a joke.  

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14 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

No it isnt.  
You want to compare him to a 20 million dollar a year guy who cant do the entire job of a defensive tackle. News Flash-Its not just rush the passer.   If you want to compare him to 20 million dollar a year defensive tackles , he isnt Aaron Donald. But besides Donald and maybe a few others, he is one of the better players at his position.  

If youre going to compare him to all other guys who have more sacks, why not compare him to Jamal Adams?  Hes impactful and he is getting that kind of money. But Adams cant play  defensive tackle and has a hard time playing his own position when he isnt rushing.  For that matter, put Joey Bosa at defensive tackle and see how long he lasts.  You cant replace him with either one.  

 

If we can get QW to stay at Jamal Adams money ($17.5M per) or a little more than that, I'm cool with it.

If we have to pay him Leo money ($21M per) to get him to stay, no thanks.

The latter is much more likely to be the reality.  So the comparisons to $20M per year players will continue to be valid.  

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2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

If he wasnt disruptive why do you think he  was so often double teamed?

The best defensive lines have multiple disruptive players.  Look at the Rams- Donald isnt the only guy on that line.  Other teams are forced to make hard decisions on who to block.  When Williams plays with Lawson and who ever edge rusher the Jets presumably draft, I think you will see him unleashed.

I look forward to seeing QW with other capable EDGE rushers.  But the conversation has morphed into whether NOW is the right time to pay him.  Since his cost would be high whether we pay him now or next year, I'd prefer that he prove he can be dominant next year before paying him.  Would you agree with that?

EDIT:  Didn't see your above post confirming you would.  Disregard, lol.

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10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I look forward to seeing QW with other capable EDGE rushers.  But the conversation has morphed into whether NOW is the right time to pay him.  Since his cost would be high whether we pay him now or next year, I'd prefer that he prove he can be dominant next year before paying him.  Would you agree with that?

EDIT:  Didn't see your above post confirming you would.  Disregard, lol.

I’m not carrying his jock.   I think he is an ascending player that will prove he deserves to be paid over the next 2 seasons.   But if he doesn’t Im not looking to over pay him.   He has next 2 years to prove he deserves long term security, and if theJets aren’t sure they have the Franchise tag designation to give them another year to figure it out.  

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