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You are the Jets GM: First Round question


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All else equal, is your round 1 philosophy to take:

1. Dominant, NFL ready player at Less Premium Position?

2022 example:  Center Linderbaum or LB Dean

OR

2. High Upside but riskier player at More Premium Position?

2022 example:  Edge Karlaftis or WR J Williams

 

There is obviously risk in any pick but you get the gist.

 

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16 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All else equal, is your round 1 philosophy to take:

1. Dominant, NFL ready player at Less Premium Position?

2022 example:  Center Linderbaum or LB Dean

OR

2. High Upside but riskier player at More Premium Position?

2022 example:  Edge Karlaftis or WR J Williams

There is obviously risk in any pick but you get the gist.

I think I'm choosing option #1.  I'm too afraid of reaching for a guy and then having him bust.  I feel like that's how we end up with those games where we say "the Jets are completely outclassed talent-wise going into this game".  We have to get to the point where that type of thing stops happening.

I'd be just fine trading down a couple of times too (for the same reason) btw.

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6 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I know, brutal..  important variable but let’s assume for now all have same chance at staying healthy 

Fair enough...

I think it's a good question...I think the degrees matter - in other words, how much of a gap between the guarantee and the potential - with that being said...

I would say #2 - and I say this because I think having explosive playmakers at the premium positions are the reason you win games - difference makers.

So a guaranteed dominant ILB vs. a potentially dominant Edge or WR - I roll the dice on the potential Edge or WR...

 

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I'd much rather we get NFL caliber players at more positions than some good players and some busts. Let's level up the roster then look for the "unicorns" once we can actually field a respectable team.

E.g. I keep hearing we shouldn't draft a LB high. But if there's a guy that we can draft at 10 who can do for our D what Micah Parsons did for Dallas, I want him! "Premium" position be damned.

 

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18 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think I'm choosing option #1.  I'm too afraid of reaching for a guy and then having him bust.  I feel like that's how we end up with those games where we say "the Jets are completely outclassed talent-wise going into this game".  We have to get to the point where that type of thing stops happening.

I'd be just fine trading down a couple of times too (for the same reason) btw.

Yep, that’s exactly my point.  We cannot swing and miss or wait 3 years for a guy to develop.

Barring a trade down, I expect us to land 1 of either Linderbaum or Dean, the type of player who would be near top of their position group in  any draft class.  

Linderbaum would solidify the OLine and add some nastiness that seems sorely needed.

Dean would go a long way to improving the run defense and shutting down the RB and TE passing game, all 3 we are bottom of the barrel at.  You do this, you automatically improve the pass rush.

So one pick at least has to have a realistic (even high) probability of becoming a dominant player Year 1-2 and immediately solidifying an entire unit that otherwise would be as strong as it’s weakest link (see GVR first half of the year).

The other might be the high upside type at a premium position like a Williams or even Ojabo who wouldn’t necessarily be at the top of any draft class.  A true home run threat or QB nightmare.

 

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6 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

I'm not passing on Jameson Williams at pick 4 but that's just me.

I can take Linderbaum or Dean if I really believe in the player at pick 10. One of them would likely still be there. 

It's an offensive league, I want more offense on this team. 

Kinda small no? I know nothing else about him but that. Haha 

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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Fair enough...

I think it's a good question...I think the degrees matter - in other words, how much of a gap between the guarantee and the potential - with that being said...

I would say #2 - and I say this because I think having explosive playmakers at the premium positions are the reason you win games - difference makers.

So a guaranteed dominant ILB vs. a potentially dominant Edge or WR - I roll the dice on the potential Edge or WR...

 

Can that WR catch with his hands, is he a good to great route runner, is he quick, does he high point a ball, catch the contested catch, etc.? If his skill sets are of a body catcher, a straight line speed WR etc. than he is too risky. 

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32 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All else equal, is your round 1 philosophy to take:

1. Dominant, NFL ready player at Less Premium Position?

2022 example:  Center Linderbaum or LB Dean

OR

2. High Upside but riskier player at More Premium Position?

2022 example:  Edge Karlaftis or WR J Williams

 

There is obviously risk in any pick but you get the gist.

 

Option 1 as long as it’s not a safety!

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i don't see douglas investing a top 10 pick in a safety or center.  or cornerback.  watching the jets the past month, the biggest takeaways are the obvious one.  jets need wrs.  jets need pass rushers.  jets need OL healthy.  jets need either becton or another OT.  jets need 2 interior OL.  but with 2 picks in the 2nd the jets can address C or OG.

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Premium positions with premium picks. That’s where you kinda need to swing for the fences a little bit. You think about an Edge who gives you decent production, say something like 8 or 9 sacks a year. Those aren’t star level numbers, but that’s still much more valuable than if you take a center or LB who also winds up in the, “solid starter,” camp. For the lesser position to work out, you really need to be certain you found a superstar. And if the draft has proven anything over its history it’s that there are no sure things. So you go for the dynamic Edge, WR, LT, and, of course, QB, up top, because even if you just get starting level production out of those players, it’s much more valuable than the same level of production from lesser valued positions. 

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11 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Kinda small no? I know nothing else about him but that. Haha 

I'm not a college football expert by any means either haha. I just think he's explosive. He's listed at 6'2 190 pounds but who knows if that's legit. We'll see how he measures at the combine. 

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

Premium positions with premium picks. That’s where you kinda need to swing for the fences a little bit. You think about an Edge who gives you decent production, say something like 8 or 9 sacks a year. Those aren’t star level numbers, but that’s still much more valuable than if you take a center or LB who also winds up in the, “solid starter,” camp. For the lesser position to work out, you really need to be certain you found a superstar. And if the draft has proven anything over its history it’s that there are no sure things. So you go for the dynamic Edge, WR, LT, and, of course, QB, up top, because even if you just get starting level production out of those players, it’s much more valuable than the same level of production from lesser valued positions. 

yes.  because it's easier to fill the lesser positions with lower picks and FA, and b/c the consequences of not having decent or good production out of premium positions is worse than having a great center or safety and crap at premium positions.  

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5 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

I'm not a college football expert by any means either haha. I just think he's explosive. He's listed at 6'2 190 pounds but who knows if that's legit. We'll see how he measures at the combine. 

I found this…

 
 
Jameson Williams is a 6-1.5, 170-pound Wide Receiver from Saint Louis, MO.  
He may have gotten bigger since getting the Bama. Maybe even taller?
Yes, need to see his measurable at the combine for sure. 
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One thing to consider is that stopping the run and shutting down safety valves like RB and TEs in the passing game might go farther in creating a pass rush than simply adding an Edge.

And having at least 1 strong position group on the Offensive side of the ball with no weaknesses might help us more than sprinkling talent across the board but having no real strategic strengths.  And right now we have none.

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Where the Jets are picking in rd 1 they should able to find exceptional football players who love the game and are great athletes.  To me that is likely OT and then WR.  If someone wants to give us their 1 and another 1 or 2 to trade up to 10 we can do that.  
 

I don’t think those players are Karlaftis, Hamilton or Linderbaum at 4 or 10.  Look at the current top young WRs and where they were picked.   We need to use a 1 to get one. 

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49 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All else equal, is your round 1 philosophy to take:

1. Dominant, NFL ready player at Less Premium Position?

2022 example:  Center Linderbaum or LB Dean

OR

2. High Upside but riskier player at More Premium Position?

2022 example:  Edge Karlaftis or WR J Williams

 

There is obviously risk in any pick but you get the gist.

 

Nakobe Dean could make Darron Lee look like Andre the Giant.  I love Dean as a player, but his size is a concern for me, especially if you are talking about a top 15 pick.  

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54 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All else equal, is your round 1 philosophy to take:

1. Dominant, NFL ready player at Less Premium Position?

2022 example:  Center Linderbaum or LB Dean

OR

2. High Upside but riskier player at More Premium Position?

2022 example:  Edge Karlaftis or WR J Williams

There is obviously risk in any pick but you get the gist.

Personal opinion:  NO workout warriors and no reaches.  If you were not great in college games, and you did not show yourself to be one of the best prospects in games, against elite opponents, then I do not care how you do at the combine or in workouts in shorts in the summer on friendly campus fields.

Proven resume, proven personality/leadership, proven durability.    

Yes, this philosophy may have us miss on some late blooming freak, but it will also ensure we draft pro-ready, pro-competent, durable players with a proven track record of ability, which in my view is the best and fastest route to consistent competitive Jets teams.

When we get to a spot where we've not had a losing season for 5 years, then I might be more willing to entertain the workout warrior types.  Till then, sure things only, as much as is possible.  

In terms of position, I am a strict Needs-based-drafting supporter.  You draft what you need, not some amorphous "BAP" idea.  Better still when your needs, "premium positions", and a draft class all align, as I believe 2022 will at pick #4 for an elite edge prospect. 

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I think we’re all going to be pretty happy about our offseason. We have the QB spot taken care of, the OL is at a point now where we can look for depth, not starters (I’m not going for a C in the first two rounds) this is the year JD will look to load up on players at impact positions

We need a lot of help in a lot of areas, but we really need to get a WR, an ER and a TE. I think those and areas like safety and LB will be the focus.

If we have another good draft, Becton and Lawson will be back, and Zach takes a step forward we’ll be in business next year.

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I think at 4 you absolutely swing for the fences at a premium position.

At 10 I'm a little more open to drafting a rock solid stud at a less important position... I do think not missing on our first four picks is almost more important than hitting homeruns. We just need to add good starters to this team across the board.

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4 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All else equal, is your round 1 philosophy to take:

1. Dominant, NFL ready player at Less Premium Position?

2022 example:  Center Linderbaum or LB Dean

OR

2. High Upside but riskier player at More Premium Position?

2022 example:  Edge Karlaftis or WR J Williams

 

There is obviously risk in any pick but you get the gist.

 

I would argue that C is in fact a premium position for our young QB.

Having said that, I am sure that Kayvon will actually fall to us with the 4

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3 hours ago, slats said:

Premium positions with premium picks. That’s where you kinda need to swing for the fences a little bit. ...

We've swung for the fences a million times over the years, and 99% of the time it didn't work out. If I had a dollar for every "swing for the fences" pick that never panned out I could afford to buy the team from Woody Woodpecker. We are in a position to add 2 of the 10 best players in all of college football in the first round. We need 2 day-one starters in the first round.

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3 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

I think we’re all going to be pretty happy about our offseason. We have the QB spot taken care of, the OL is at a point now where we can look for depth, not starters ...

Yes, we put up 53 total yards of offense yesterday. We're all set at QB and O-line for sure...

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1 hour ago, Larz said:

First 2 picks must be for expensive and difficult to acquire positions. Center, TE, RB etc simply can’t be considered for me

I agree in principle, but disagree on TE. A real game-changer type of TE would be worth a first round pick. Think Kelce or Gronk.

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8 minutes ago, viffer said:

Yes, we put up 53 total yards of offense yesterday. We're all set at QB and O-line for sure...

😂 okay, I get what you’re saying, but let’s be honest. We ARE set at QB next year. Wilson isn’t going anywhere. You can feel either way about that, but it’s a fact.

As for the OL. Come on, be reasonable. The unit that you saw out there is not the one that played pretty well this year. You know that.

Next season we’ll have Becton back in the mix, and the rest of the starters back. Will there be some additional tweaks? Of course, there always are with every position group. We have a lot bigger issues on this team than our OL.

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