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***Official Black Monday Thread***


Doggin94it
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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Because every GM has bad picks. Literally all of them. It's aggregate success rate that separates between good and bad drafters

Exactly.  How do you mitigate the bad picks?  By finding good to great players where they are not expected. 

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16 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Exactly.  How do you mitigate the bad picks?  By finding good to great players where they are not expected. 

The Bryce hall, Bryce huff, Elijah Riley, John Franklin Myers types. 

I hope Douglas can find guys like that

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2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Because every GM has bad picks. Literally all of them. It's aggregate success rate that separates between good and bad drafters

And that number is around 50-55 percent and up.  The top tier GM's in the league consistently hit on about that number of their picks.  So far, JD is close to that.  Another good draft and he will be over it.  

Now, who knows?  that is why you need about three years to determine a draft.  Everyone is saying the entire first draft is lost, but we will have a better idea next year.  Everyone is saying this draft was great.  We will have a better idea in a couple of years.

 

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Just now, CanadaSteve said:

And that number is around 50-55 percent and up.  The top tier GM's in the league consistently hit on about that number of their picks.  So far, JD is close to that.  Another good draft and he will be over it.  

Now, who knows?  that is why you need about three years to determine a draft.  Everyone is saying the entire first draft is lost, but we will have a better idea next year.  Everyone is saying this draft was great.  We will have a better idea in a couple of years.

 

Is this data broken down somewhere? It's something I've often wondered about but haven't bothered to try and discover.

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A fun way to geek out is go into Wikipedia and pull up whatever team and go back as far as you want.  Then just scroll through year after year, looking at their drafts, FA signings, who came and went, coaches, etc.  Fascinating to see how much of GM'ing is just dumb luck or really, a great scout out there finding someone and making them pick him.

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14 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

The Bryce hall, Bryce huff, Elijah Riley, John Franklin Myers types. 

I hope Douglas can find guys like that

Really?  Seriously?  We have the worst D in the league.  None of those guys are a difference maker at all.

How about danielle hunter in the 3rd round

Adam theilin undrdafted

Stephon diggs 5th rounder

Now Carter might be one of these type of guys

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Icer said:

Lame duck Judge as HC, and no cap space I'm sure GM candidates are lining up to get in that mess

John Idzik may be looking for another chance. 

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47 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Is this data broken down somewhere? It's something I've often wondered about but haven't bothered to try and discover.

I actually ran the numbers for five years.  I did it just after Mac was fired.  I used the following criteria:

- Every draft of Mac's (2015-2019).  I took every pick by every team for those five years.  

- How many players were still on an NFL roster?

- How many players were still on the original draft team?

The top GM's were hitting anywhere between 50-60 percent. 

Mac was around 29-30 percent. 

And before you ask: I deleted the file last year when I got a new computer, and no, I don't think I want to put the time in to do it again!

 

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14 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

 

Thielin: 8 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD

Diggs: 52, 720, 4TD

Hunter: 1 start, 6 sacks, 33 tackles, 1FF. (For reference, JFM's stats this year: 6 sacks, 35 tackles, 1FF) 

None of those guys showed up in the league as "difference makers". They developed over time. But yeah, it's definitely time to say that guys like Huff, Hall, JFM, etc. aren't those guys.

I wouldn't say Huff and JFM are 'the guys,' but I think Huff will work as a situational pass rusher, and if we move JFM inside he will be more effective.  Not 'the guys,' but effective.  If we had to roll with Hall as 'the guy,' I would be okay with it, but it would be nice to have another Revis on an island. 

BUT....great examples of finding quality in lower rounds, which a GM HAS to do to be successful. 

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6 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Zimmer is nuts if he takes any coaching job,. The Vikings owe him $15,000,000 over the next two years, and this is his girlfriend.

Katarina-Elizabeth.jpg

I would trying to get fired for some time if that was my girlfriend. Oh my.

 

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2 hours ago, Bungaman said:

I would trying to get fired for some time if that was my girlfriend. Oh my.

 

This is definitely the best place for keeping up with the latest gossip. 
 

Legit hilarious: 

DB22D756-B287-4E16-9901-AF301B4174C9.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Bungaman said:

I would trying to get fired for some time if that was my girlfriend. Oh my.

 

and watch she leaves him for not having a job like every other women does.

or leaves him cause hes some coordinator and not the HC. hot girls like that care about those things.

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9 hours ago, Origen said:

A fun way to geek out is go into Wikipedia and pull up whatever team and go back as far as you want.  Then just scroll through year after year, looking at their drafts, FA signings, who came and went, coaches, etc.  Fascinating to see how much of GM'ing is just dumb luck or really, a great scout out there finding someone and making them pick him.

Pro football reference has each team’s draft history on its own page. So, you can just scroll down and pretty easily evaluate a teams draft history.

For example, here’s the steelers who have the rep of a good drafting team.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/draft.htm
 

They had terrible drafts in 2016 and 2018. Most other years they do well most of the time in the first 2 or 3 rounds, but overall they might even be below 50%, depending on what you consider “hitting” or “missing “ on a draft pick.

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17 hours ago, slimjasi said:

 

this seems like a crazy decision. If there was a power struggle, why would Ross pick Grier over Flores? Makes no sense on the surface. 
 

Dolphins fans are shocked 

Because Flores was down on the Playing/Practice Fields busting his butt while Grier was in Ross's Luxury Box doing Concubine Duty. Ross is an absentee owner who flies into Miami Saturday Afternoon and jets out Monday Morning.

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14 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Yes, seriously. Those are all good NFL players found in the low rounds or UDFA, contributing as rookies or young players. Yes, the D was awful this year. But it looked better as the season wore on, lost its key piece at the end of preseason, and was playing a ton of young kids getting a ton of experience.

I mean what the hell do you think Thielin, Hunter, and Diggs did in their first years in the league?

Thielin: 8 catches, 137 yards, 1 TD

Diggs: 52, 720, 4TD

Hunter: 1 start, 6 sacks, 33 tackles, 1FF. (For reference, JFM's stats this year: 6 sacks, 35 tackles, 1FF) 

None of those guys showed up in the league as "difference makers". They developed over time. But yeah, it's definitely time to say that guys like Huff, Hall, JFM, etc. aren't those guys.

Wtf kind of comparassion is this? JFM is getting payed 15m/year and by the time Danielle Hunter got his second contract he already had multiple 10+ sack seasons

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9 hours ago, Xtina said:

This is definitely the best place for keeping up with the latest gossip. 
 

Legit hilarious: 

DB22D756-B287-4E16-9901-AF301B4174C9.jpeg

Look at that Zimmer grin and those smiling eyes. There is no way he's not taking low dose cialis on a daily basis to keep "up" with his BBG (bad baby girl) at any given moment.

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1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said:

Look at that Zimmer grin and those smiling eyes. There is no way he's not taking low dose cialis on a daily basis to keep "up" with his BBG (bad baby girl) at any given moment.

forgot how ugly he is. there is no way she is with him for his looks.

she is done with him unless he gets another HC job. that girl dont date coordinators

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On 1/10/2022 at 10:41 AM, KRL said:

I don't like bringing up the race factor, but just wait until the "woke segment" of the
media rips into MIA for firing a black coach.  Its not going to be pretty 
 

Next time don’t like bringing it up enough so you don’t bring it up at all. If not though I don’t like to, I will be giving you  a break. 

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From a Dolphins page

 

Einstein defined insanity as the act of doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result. That is exactly what it's like to be a Miami Dolphins fan. It's complete insanity. Add Brian Flores to the graveyard of coaches since Don Shula. I'm not saying Flores was a great coach. But he certainly wasn't terrible nor did he deserve to get fired. Flores managed to lead the Dolphins to their first back-to-back winning seasons since 2000 and 2001. So what's his reward? He gets a pink slip from owner Stephen Ross.

How bad is the Dolphins franchise? They haven't qualified for the playoffs since 2016. They haven't won a playoff game since 2000. They haven't been to an AFC Championship Game since 1992. They haven't been to a Super Bowl since 1984. They haven't won a Super Bowl since 1973. You get the picture. That's a lot of droughts. If you're a Miami Dolphins fan, you have two choices. You can either continue the insanity and believe the next coach will bring the team back to glory or you can return to normality and find something better to do on Sunday afternoons.

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25 minutes ago, Bless you....Thank you said:

From a Dolphins page

 

Einstein defined insanity as the act of doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result. That is exactly what it's like to be a Miami Dolphins fan. It's complete insanity. Add Brian Flores to the graveyard of coaches since Don Shula. I'm not saying Flores was a great coach. But he certainly wasn't terrible nor did he deserve to get fired. Flores managed to lead the Dolphins to their first back-to-back winning seasons since 2000 and 2001. So what's his reward? He gets a pink slip from owner Stephen Ross.

How bad is the Dolphins franchise? They haven't qualified for the playoffs since 2016. They haven't won a playoff game since 2000. They haven't been to an AFC Championship Game since 1992. They haven't been to a Super Bowl since 1984. They haven't won a Super Bowl since 1973. You get the picture. That's a lot of droughts. If you're a Miami Dolphins fan, you have two choices. You can either continue the insanity and believe the next coach will bring the team back to glory or you can return to normality and find something better to do on Sunday afternoons.

Maybe their plan is to hire Bill O'Brien. He then pulls the strings to get Deshaun to miami. He then turns around and trades Waddle for a 2nd round pick

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