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Doggin's Offseason Plan


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6 hours ago, TheClashFan said:

Avoid drafting/signing/extending players with any kind of injury history. That crap has got to end. 

Avoid signing any player to a big free agent contract or extension who will then stop caring and playing hard.  We've seen too much of that, a la Trumaine Johnson, etc.

So, avoid Scherff, for example, no matter how good he is.

I know this is all easier said than done.

 

That's any GM's wet dream, a perfect scenario.  We are hanging on to several players that were on IR/overachiever and possibly a continuance in 2022 (Becton, + 2020 draft class, Lawson).

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On 1/10/2022 at 7:39 PM, Doggin94it said:

This is, of course, a critical thread, since what I think should happen will obviously determine the fate of the Jets for the next few years. So let's get to it.

1) Give all the money to Davante Adams. (Backup plan: If Adams won't take it from us, give slightly less than all the money to Chris Godwin)

ron swanson GIF

The last two offseasons Douglas has primarily been a bargain shopper, looking for up-and-coming players who could be had at less than top of market, rather than going after the top-tier players at positions of need. And that made sense, considering all the holes we had and the uncertainty at QB. This offseason it's time to make a very different move and bring in a true No. 1 WR. Not only would Adams (or, to a lesser extent, Godwin) be a huge help to Wilson as a dominant target who can win 50/50 balls and is open even when covered, but they'd unlock the value of Davis and Moore. Davis in particular fares much better as the complimentary target than as the primary guy drawing double coverage, and an Adams-Moore-Davis trio would be an elite WR group. Adams has said he wants to be the highest paid WR in the NFL, but given what Arizona is paying Hopkins (27.25/per) and the gap between him and the second highest paid WR (Julio at 22) that's a stretch. But I'd go as high as 24M per year with a strong guarantee to get Adams in the door. Godwin is probably looking at the Amari Cooper deal (20M/per, 5 years). Davante Adams isn't going to make it to the free agent market; my guess is he gets tagged. I'm with Connor Hughes in that Calvin Ridley makes a lot of sense if he wants to play football. Godwin was due to be a top target last year, but I think the injury changes things for everyone involved...

2) Resign Berrios, Bawden, and the Doctor. Let Foley Fatukasi walk. Morgan Moses will want to test the market; bring him back if the contract value is right, but he's not a priority, especially since the plan now has got to be to shift Becton to the right side of the OL (Fant has been just too good this year not to be the starting LT in 2022; you can move Becton back to the left side in 2023 if you can't extend Fant). Nobody else on the Jets' FA list is a priority; you can resign folks like White, Pineiro, or Joyner if their market allows it, or you can replace them with similar level players from other teams if their market somehow explodes. All very realistic

3) Sign David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, or Mike Gesicki. Njoku is actually my first choice here, as he'll probably come at a better value than Gesicki (who has a better pedigree and stats) or Schultz (will be paid top of market coming off a career year). Njoku has quietly had a very good year - only 36 receptions but he's doing the little things and his OTC valuation is roughly 7.5M per, which, for reference, is what the Raiders are paying Waller - and a skill position group of Adams, Davis, Moore, Njoku and Carter would be very hard to defend. David Njoku is the guy I keep hearing

4) Focus on D in the early rounds of the draft. You can use the second of our first round picks on an offensive lineman - based on their profiles, either Linderbaum (C) or Ekonwu (profiles as an AVT level RG who can swing to tackle in a pinch) would be perfect fits, and @football guy has heard that Ekonwu is on our radar - but our other premium picks should go edge (likely Karlaftis at 4, barring a miracle slide from Hutchinson or Thibs) and some combination of off-ball LB and S (two LBs would be fine, LB/S or S/LB fine, S/S not so much). Then load up on a big-bodied RB to complement Carter and developmental OL

In other words: beef out the offense in FA with a dominant No. 1 WR as the true priority, and plan to address the defense hard in the draft. An OL of Fant-AVT-McGovern-Ekonwu/LDT-Becton/Moses would be a perfect setup for Wilson, especially with Adams-Davis-Moore-Njoku-Berrios-Carter as his skill players. If Lawson comes back healthy and Wilson progresses, that's a true playoff-contending roster. the organization has made it abundantly clear that they will look to build the best offensive line in football. Ekonwu fits the profile of OL Douglas loves, but it's really hard to say whether that means he would take him at 4, 10, or elsewhere. What is certain: Jets will put a lot of work into these OL as they try to figure out who their top guys are. My gut is they take Neal or Ekonwu, start them at RG in year 1 with the option to move them to LT/RT assuming everyone stays healthy, and if Fant has another great season they can extend him and keep their 2022 pick at RG, move the 2022 pick to LT/RT (depending where Becton plays) and let Fant walk (likely resulting in a 2024 comp pick), or something else. If the were to sign Brandon Scherff, I still think they would consider taking a top OL and having an open competition at tackle (foolish or not). Either way, the OL will remain a priority, and given the capital the Jets have, it's very likely they use this year to "complete" the OL rebuild. 

 

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In a best case scenario Fant can be kept in 2023 for well in excess of $15mm.  For many teams, the only way they are getting a good LT will be to pay someone like Fant.   The Jets have the opportunity to get an LT or RT in the draft and lock them in for 5 years at an average salary of half that.   That seems like a good opportunity. 

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15 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

If we can't land a high-end FA WR, sure, splurge for Schultz at TE. But if we can get a top-tier WR, we don't need to get Schultz as our TE who we would hope would be our No. 3 target (after WR1 and Moore) 

I'm kind of assuming Schultz is the 3rd or 4th option no matter what because he's going to at least have Davis and Moore on the roster too.  I'm also prioritizing Berrios if I'm JD.  He's a cultural building block IMO, reward the high performers who work hard, love ball and give it their all no matter the circumstances and clearly Zach has a great rapport with him as well. I'd look to get him more involved in the offense too, he so dangerous on the sweep, end around, etc. and he's clutch.  Hope he's a Jet forever type of player. 

Which is kind of why I prefer drafting a WR high.  You can bring that player along, not have to pay a top end money and give Zach 2 young player makers at WR (Moore and a draft pick) and a TE to grow with next season and there I still think they're going to try to pull something out of Mims.  Maybe look for a speed demon field stretcher who can take advantage of Zach's arm ie; Will Fuller, Mike Williams, Mike Gallup (depending on that knee), DJ Chark, etc.   Use that "break the bank" money that was going to a #1 WR and go get some help on D.

 

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14 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

The 2021 free agent WR class was abysmal.   Throwing big FA money at that position is typically a failing proposition.  Sign a couple mid level guys for short money?  That’s fine, but I would avoid the big money guys.  

Couldn't agree more. The FA TE group is decent and would upgrade the Jets unit. That's worth the money. Might even go for two a la the Patriots last year. But the Jets will do better via the draft at WR. 

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5 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

The 2021 free agent WR class was abysmal.   Throwing big FA money at that position is typically a failing proposition.  Sign a couple mid level guys for short money?  That’s fine, but I would avoid the big money guys.  

Who was in the 2021 FA class who deserved high-end money? The only guy potentially in that tier who hit the market was Golladay (full disclosure: I'd have been gotten on that one). Davante Adams is legitimately the best WR in the NFL right now and will be in that conversation for the next few years. Godwin is a top-tier guy. Giving mid-level money to folks like Davis and Crowder is a waste right now; this WR group needs a top-dog option more than another Davis level player

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6 hours ago, JiFapono said:

I'm kind of assuming Schultz is the 3rd or 4th option no matter what because he's going to at least have Davis and Moore on the roster too.  I'm also prioritizing Berrios if I'm JD.  He's a cultural building block IMO, reward the high performers who work hard, love ball and give it their all no matter the circumstances and clearly Zach has a great rapport with him as well. I'd look to get him more involved in the offense too, he so dangerous on the sweep, end around, etc. and he's clutch.  Hope he's a Jet forever type of player. 

Which is kind of why I prefer drafting a WR high.  You can bring that player along, not have to pay a top end money and give Zach 2 young player makers at WR (Moore and a draft pick) and a TE to grow with next season and there I still think they're going to try to pull something out of Mims.  Maybe look for a speed demon field stretcher who can take advantage of Zach's arm ie; Will Fuller, Mike Williams, Mike Gallup (depending on that knee), DJ Chark, etc.   Use that "break the bank" money that was going to a #1 WR and go get some help on D.

 

To be fair, part of this is me looking at the draft and saying "I don't see a Chase/AJ Brown/Julio Jones/Adams type of receiver that I want to take in the first round and count on to be that guy." (Yes, I know Adams and Brown were 2d round picks; if the league knew they'd turn out like this they'd have gone top 10. And yes, it will always always kill me that Idzik took Jace-effing-Amaro 4 picks before Adams)

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6 hours ago, JiFapono said:

I'm kind of assuming Schultz is the 3rd or 4th option no matter what because he's going to at least have Davis and Moore on the roster too.  I'm also prioritizing Berrios if I'm JD.  He's a cultural building block IMO, reward the high performers who work hard, love ball and give it their all no matter the circumstances and clearly Zach has a great rapport with him as well. I'd look to get him more involved in the offense too, he so dangerous on the sweep, end around, etc. and he's clutch.  Hope he's a Jet forever type of player. 

Which is kind of why I prefer drafting a WR high.  You can bring that player along, not have to pay a top end money and give Zach 2 young player makers at WR (Moore and a draft pick) and a TE to grow with next season and there I still think they're going to try to pull something out of Mims.  Maybe look for a speed demon field stretcher who can take advantage of Zach's arm ie; Will Fuller, Mike Williams, Mike Gallup (depending on that knee), DJ Chark, etc.   Use that "break the bank" money that was going to a #1 WR and go get some help on D.

 

Have you heard the criticism that Schultz is a mediocre blocker? Like your plan but wonder if Njoku should be the target?

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On 1/10/2022 at 7:39 PM, Doggin94it said:

This is, of course, a critical thread, since what I think should happen will obviously determine the fate of the Jets for the next few years. So let's get to it.

1) Give all the money to Davante Adams. (Backup plan: If Adams won't take it from us, give slightly less than all the money to Chris Godwin)

ron swanson GIF

The last two offseasons Douglas has primarily been a bargain shopper, looking for up-and-coming players who could be had at less than top of market, rather than going after the top-tier players at positions of need. And that made sense, considering all the holes we had and the uncertainty at QB. This offseason it's time to make a very different move and bring in a true No. 1 WR. Not only would Adams (or, to a lesser extent, Godwin) be a huge help to Wilson as a dominant target who can win 50/50 balls and is open even when covered, but they'd unlock the value of Davis and Moore. Davis in particular fares much better as the complimentary target than as the primary guy drawing double coverage, and an Adams-Moore-Davis trio would be an elite WR group. Adams has said he wants to be the highest paid WR in the NFL, but given what Arizona is paying Hopkins (27.25/per) and the gap between him and the second highest paid WR (Julio at 22) that's a stretch. But I'd go as high as 24M per year with a strong guarantee to get Adams in the door. Godwin is probably looking at the Amari Cooper deal (20M/per, 5 years).

2) Resign Berrios, Bawden, and the Doctor. Let Foley Fatukasi walk. Morgan Moses will want to test the market; bring him back if the contract value is right, but he's not a priority, especially since the plan now has got to be to shift Becton to the right side of the OL (Fant has been just too good this year not to be the starting LT in 2022; you can move Becton back to the left side in 2023 if you can't extend Fant). Nobody else on the Jets' FA list is a priority; you can resign folks like White, Pineiro, or Joyner if their market allows it, or you can replace them with similar level players from other teams if their market somehow explodes.

3) Sign David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, or Mike Gesicki. Njoku is actually my first choice here, as he'll probably come at a better value than Gesicki (who has a better pedigree and stats) or Schultz (will be paid top of market coming off a career year). Njoku has quietly had a very good year - only 36 receptions but he's doing the little things and his OTC valuation is roughly 7.5M per, which, for reference, is what the Raiders are paying Waller - and a skill position group of Adams, Davis, Moore, Njoku and Carter would be very hard to defend.

4) Focus on D in the early rounds of the draft. You can use the second of our first round picks on an offensive lineman - based on their profiles, either Linderbaum (C) or Ekonwu (profiles as an AVT level RG who can swing to tackle in a pinch) would be perfect fits, and @football guy has heard that Ekonwu is on our radar - but our other premium picks should go edge (likely Karlaftis at 4, barring a miracle slide from Hutchinson or Thibs) and some combination of off-ball LB and S (two LBs would be fine, LB/S or S/LB fine, S/S not so much). Then load up on a big-bodied RB to complement Carter and developmental OL

In other words: beef out the offense in FA with a dominant No. 1 WR as the true priority, and plan to address the defense hard in the draft. An OL of Fant-AVT-McGovern-Ekonwu/LDT-Becton/Moses would be a perfect setup for Wilson, especially with Adams-Davis-Moore-Njoku-Berrios-Carter as his skill players. If Lawson comes back healthy and Wilson progresses, that's a true playoff-contending roster.   

1. Draft  Burks/London with pick 10 - a star on a cheap rookie deal

2. Resign Berrios (overpay him) - Resign Moses (overpay if needed) - Draft the OT from Ohio with the first 2nd. Keep Fatukasi he wont be expensive and he is solid

3. Draft Windermeyer with the second 2nd. - cheap rookie deal. 

Draft and edge at #4, and defense for rounds 3 and above

 

FIXED

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