Zach Wilson - "Different QB the 2nd Half of the Year"

[Warfish]

Quote

....He has been a different QB than he was the first half of the season.....

This is a sentiment I hear around the forum regularly, that Zach made alot of progress in the second half of the year, was a totally different QB than he was early on, etc.

So I wondered if there was anything in the actual statistical production that would help support that belief, something a bit less subjective that the "eye test" of fans.

Here are the results:

Zach Wilson Week 1-7 (327 Off. Snaps, 6 Games) -- 104 of 181 (57.46%) for 1,168 Passing Yards, 4 TD,  9 INT, 19 Sacks, 6.45 YPA, 8 Rushes for 22 Yards and 0 TD's, and 2 Fumbles.

Zach Wilson Week 12-18 (414 Off. Snaps, 7 Games) -- 109 of 202 (53.96%) for 1,166 Passing Yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 25 Sacks, 5.77 YPA, 21 Rushes for 163 Yards and 4 TD's and 3 Fumbles.

A few positives stick out:

1. Reduced INT's over one additional game, from 9 (1.5/game) to 2 (0.3/game).  A big meaningful improvement here.

2. Increased rushing over one additional game, from 2.75/carry to 7.76/carry.  That big run late in the year certainly helps here, given the small sample size.

However, I'm sort of surprised how his actual passing production actually declined in the 2nd half:

 1. Completion % dropped from 57.5% to 54.0%.

2. Passing Yards/Game dropped from 194.7/game down to 166.6/game.

3. Sacks taken increased from 3.2/game to 3.6/game.

Now, I expect the argument in defense of these numbers to be injuries.  That despite lower per-game production, he was in fact actually playing much better but production was reduced because of diminished O-line play, better decision making and fewer snaps available from his better WR's.  

A look at some reputable O-line ranking site would be a good way to explore the weaker O-line later in the year idea.  

One might also argue we played better Defenses in the second half.  That would just take a review of each opponents Defensive Rankings if that interests you, with Miami, Tampa and Buffalo late it could certainly be true.

And one could, if they wished, look at each skill player, and how many snaps they played from weeks 1-7 and how many they played from weeks 12-18 to at least get a general idea of skill player availability to Zach during each period.

Out of my own curiosity on this one I tested Moore, arguably our best and most explosive WR this season:

Moore played 199 snaps in Weeks 1-7,  was targeted 26 times (5.2/game), made 9 catches (35%) for 79 yards (15.8 YPG)

Moore played 110 snaps in Weeks 12-13, missing Weeks 14-18, was targeted 20 times (10/game), made 10 catches (50%) for 123 yards (61.5 YPG).

Moore played 167 snaps in Weeks 8-11 without Wilson, was targeted 31 times (7.75/game), made 24 catches (77%) for 336 yards (84.0 YPG).

I know we have many Fans who think stats and analysis of them is meaningless or of very limited value. 

So they can feel free to ignore this information or provide their own analysis of it if they wish, no worries.  And some truly do believe the "eye test" is the only test that matters. 

I can respect that, but I think production, and analysis of it, has value and is of interest.  

Enjoy.

[UntouchableCrew]

I mean, the biggest change in the second half is that he protected the ball. "Not throwing picks" was clearly his number one priority which is not only why his INTs went down but largely a big factor in why his YPA went down and sacks went up. Not making the critical mistake was a priority, the coaching staff clearly wanted him to take what was there and play within the system.

I'd still argue he played better in the second half -- three of his five best games were in the second half and even if his passing stats didn't go up the offense under him looked much more competent.

I don't think it's the night and day improvement some fans claim, but as someone who was basically writing him off I think he showed enough down the stretch to make you think maybe, just maybe he can right the ship.

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I mean, the biggest change in the second half is that he protected the ball. "Not throwing picks" was clearly his number one priority which is not only why his INTs went down but largely a big factor in why his YPA went down and sacks went up. Not making the critical mistake was a priority, the coaching staff clearly wanted him to take what was there and play within the system.

I think this is accurate, in terms of coaching priorities, I agree.

[RedBeardedSavage]

I respect the effort.

But it was the Bucs game.

None of us expected that to happen and I think that offered the most encouragement. That's a good defense, we were down more than a few starters on offense and Wilson played really well. 

[Barry McCockinner]

Limiting the INT's is nice progress but stats aside, it looked like he was just operating the offense much more smoothly weeks 16 & 17. He was checking in/out of things at the LOS and appeared to be more "on schedule" with his reads and releasing. The ball placement was clearly improved too - especially in the Bucs game. This is a very small sample size and it didn't look that way week 18 to me.

He needs to have a great off-season and show us a lot more week 16/17 Zach than the rest of the season Zach.

[Hex]

If you remove the stats from the Bills game how much does that change his stats?

[Origen]

He needs to rent a big house wherever he can get all the guys with contracts to agree to go to and just run routes all winter somewhere on a field. 

[HighPitch]

So the resident wet towel worked on yet another “how can i ruin peoples day and argue with them to death” post. Nice sleuthing comrade....

In the second half of the season he showed great improvement by his decision making. That translated into a ridiculously low amount of ints and some great runs when needed. Your stats conveniently fails to disclose the rushing tds and the several clutch 3rd down conversions he made. Im sure it was an oversight🙈

This year made me rethink my value in stats vs the eye test. There were two late games where zach did a great job but i was shocked when i read his digits. It was hard explaining to posters that didnt watch these games why zach was good.

So the eye test is a big deal especially on a team with no weapons

[ZachEY]

7 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I respect the effort.

But it was the Bucs game.

None of us expected that to happen and I think that offered the most encouragement. That's a good defense, we were down more than a few starters on offense and Wilson played really well. 

Yes - We're not talking about 2 equal halves.  So, while I respect Warfish's efforts as well, he's not comparing the data set of the emotions of the fans.  It's just about limiting the INTs, which, I think was also largely a function of putting a leash on him.  Great QBs threw INTs over this time - Wilson's highest passing total was 234 yards and he had only 2 games with over 7 yards per attempt.

What some are calling reason for optimism that Zach Wilson is improving and the future is bright, I'd call reason enough to think that there's still a chance he might not bust.

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

So the resident wet towel worked on yet another “how can i ruin peoples day and argue with them to death” post.

Sorry you feel that way.

I have no plan to argue anything, the stats are the stats.   Good catch on the rushing TD's I did miss that, and it has been added.

I present them to allow others to state their analysis and opinions.

[Peace Frog]

2 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

So the resident wet towel worked on yet another “how can i ruin peoples day and argue with them to death” post. Nice sleuthing comrade....

In the second half of the season he showed great improvement by his decision making. That translated into a ridiculously low amount of ints and some great runs when needed. Your stats conveniently fails to disclose the rushing tds and the several clutch 3rd down conversions he made. Im sure it was an oversight🙈

This year made me rethink my value in stats vs the eye test. There were two late games where zach did a great job but i was shocked when i read his digits. It was hard explaining to posters that didnt watch these games why zach was good.

So the eye test is a big deal especially on a team with no weapons

Ouch.

[Grandy]

Good post with a lot of research. Definitely an insightful and enjoyable read. 

One thing is that I think you should add rushing touchdowns as they're very important to his overall production. You already listed his fumbles too so I think it fits within the overall post.  

[Averagejetsfan1421]

I wonder what his completion percentage would’ve been accounting for all the catchable dropped balls that our receivers didn’t help him with, 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Grandy said:

Good post with a lot of research. Definitely an insightful and enjoyable read. 

One thing is that I think you should add rushing touchdowns as they're very important to his overall production. You already listed his fumbles too so I think it fits within the overall post.  

Yep, High Pitch rightfully called that miss out.  I've added it in, it was an impressive 4 in the 2nd half to 0 in that first half.

[Peace Frog]

14 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Limiting the INT's is nice progress but stats aside, it looked like he was just operating the offense much more smoothly weeks 16 & 17. He was checking in/out of things at the LOS and appeared to be more "on schedule" with his reads and releasing. The ball placement was clearly improved too - especially in the Bucs game. This is a very small sample size and it didn't look that way week 18 to me.

He needs to have a great off-season and show us a lot more week 16/17 Zach than the rest of the season Zach.

I think this is a very fair take.

Running the offense and looking the part matter more to me than non-contextual stats on a page.

Let's figure in drops and throw aways and the numbers will look much better.  

He stopped dirting balls and stopped missing wide open guys 5 yards in front of him.  Nothing to write home about but it that was my biggest issue with him early on--I couldn't figure out why he was doing that.  But he figured it out.  

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Averagejetsfan1421 said:

I wonder what his completion percentage would’ve been accounting for all the catchable dropped balls that our receivers didn’t help him with, 

That's a good question as well.  I didn't have access to a good source for total drops/game, and even that is made harder by the fact that Zach played a partial game in that first half (so we'd have to split drops while he was in vs. drops after the injury).

Some stats are indeed hard to find in a relatively easily presentable way, but drop analysis would be useful as well.  

[CanadaSteve]

18 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

He needs to have a great off-season and show us a lot more week 16/17 Zach than the rest of the season Zach.

If he doesn't, whispers of Geno Smith will begin to creep in.  Geno Smith ALWAYS looked great week 15/16.  Then the next season started and he was well below average between weeks 1-14.

[JetsFanatic]

He appeared much more comfortable running the offense in the latter portion of the season.  Other than the Buffalo game (due to weather and lack of support), he was much better at extending drives with third down completions.  No interceptions in his last five games and he also used his physical ability much more to his advantage.

 

 

[Averagejetsfan1421]

Just now, Warfish said:

That's a good question as well.  I didn't have access to a good source for total drops/game, and even that is made harder by the fact that Zach played a partial game in that first half (so we'd have to split drops while he was in vs. drops after the injury).

Some stats are in deed hard to find in a relatively easily presentable way, but drop analysis would be useful as well.  

I know I can personally remember 5 drops and 2 or 3 turned into interceptions so that would add a little to the completion percentage and drop the interceptions down, I’d like to see what the kid could do with 2 viable weapons on offense and more then 1 second to throw the ball 

 

thanks for putting that together 

[ScarletKnight89]

The ball protection was the biggest change along with the fact that he wasn't being as aggressive as he was earlier in the season. Hell, the play he got hurt on he threw a bomb into the end zone that set the Jets up on the 1 yard line due to PI on the Patriots.

Next year I want to see more of a split. I want him to protect the ball, use his check downs, but not be afraid to air it out. 

I don't want to complain about injuries but I do think that played some part in his lack of aggressiveness. He lost both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis after the Eagles game. 

Lots of games for Zach this year turned into a tale of two halves. Tennessee he played really well in the second half, the Eagles, and Dolphins games he played really well in the first half. 

He needs to start putting together complete games. 

[Averagejetsfan1421]

4 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I think this is a very fair take.

Running the offense and looking the part matter more to me than non-contextual stats on a page.

Let's figure in drops and throw aways and the numbers will look much better.  

He stopped dirting balls and stopped missing wide open guys 5 yards in front of him.  Nothing to write home about but it that was my biggest issue with him early on--I couldn't figure out why he was doing that.  But he figured it out.  

I feel like part of him darting them or over throwing them high was his inability to see over the monsters on the line, seems like he is super accurate outside the pocket as most quarterbacks not named Brady are 

[BallinPB]

Just now, CanadaSteve said:

If he doesn't, whispers of Geno Smith will begin to creep in.  Geno Smith ALWAYS looked great week 15/16.  Then the next season started and he was well below average between weeks 1-14.

The last month of Sam Darnolds rookie season was easily top 10 QB in the league. 

I don't get excited about a few games.  Show me over the course of the entire season.  I'm not encouraged by a good game or two from Zach Wilson.  Only thing that will encourage me is seeing it next year starting from the beginning of the season.  

[Averagejetsfan1421]

Also not having chemistry with a starting line up will defiantly hinder his production , he needs more continuity with his playmakers 

[Origen]

3 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

The ball protection was the biggest change along with the fact that he wasn't being as aggressive as he was earlier in the season. Hell, the play he got hurt on he threw a bomb into the end zone that set the Jets up on the 1 yard line due to PI on the Patriots.

Next year I want to see more of a split. I want him to protect the ball, use his check downs, but not be afraid to air it out. 

I don't want to complain about injuries but I do think that played some part in his lack of aggressiveness. He lost both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis after the Eagles game. 

If Corey Davis figures out where the stickum is and catches some of those early drops perhaps Zach doesn't bug out as much and yip out for half the year?  If he could have gotten confidence early things could have gone much better, but they didn't and he didn't, so it didn't.  Def need to address WR and TE next year.

[ZachEY]

27 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Limiting the INT's is nice progress

I may be alone here, and maybe I'm wrong, but if you don't score TDs, or at least move the ball effectively, I don't care that you don't throw INTs.  You're not effective.  Brett Favre turned the ball over a ton, but he was also highly effective.  Obviously we want to limit the turnovers, but "he didn't turn the ball over" isn't that laudable when he largely didn't do much of anything.

That's why the Manning comparison re: turnovers was always so cartoonish.  Yes, Manning threw a lot of INTs his rookie year.  He also threw 17 more TDs and 1400 more yards than Wilson.  There's about a 50 yard difference in YPG as well.

[undertow]

The biggest change IMO was just the game slowing down and how comfortable he looked on the field compared to his first 6 games...not turning the ball over is a bit overrated like 5 of them were dropped and he was clearly being protected so we will learn more next year when the offense is opened up.   I certainly feel better about his future tho the first 6 games were a dumpster fire. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

12 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

What some are calling reason for optimism that Zach Wilson is improving and the future is bright, I'd call reason enough to think that there's still a chance he might not bust.

The most carefully crafted endorsement of a quarterback ever. 

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I respect the effort.

But it was the Bucs game.

None of us expected that to happen and I think that offered the most encouragement. That's a good defense, we were down more than a few starters on offense and Wilson played really well. 

OMG!! It’s the Rose Bowl all over again! Wont get fooled again  I tell you. I’ll show myself out. 

[Hal N of Provo]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yep, High Pitch rightfully called that miss out.  I've added it in, it was an impressive 4 in the 2nd half to 0 in that first half.

Good posts.  The stats tell lots and it’s easy to see why some think it’s the road to another bust. 

I saw the season as classic progress -  improvement in one area slipping in another.  Frustration for many even though great things are happening.  

I think he can still become a top QB but there is work to go.  Good game manager for a stretch would be a good sign if they don’t want to loosen the leash until they see it.  When he’s comfortable and seeing it all then the playmaker will come back out.   

His coachability might be his best trait.  The progress and pains are definitely part of a measured approach to progress.  
 

 

[Augustiniak]

First half he had davis, moore and crowder.  The past 2 games there was crap at wr.  Also completion % declined b/c wilson was throwing the ball away more.

[Warfish]

Just now, Augustiniak said:

First half he had davis, moore and crowder.  The past 2 games there was crap at wr.  Also completion % declined b/c wilson was throwing the ball away more.

Psst, be careful calling Berrios "crap", he is very popular here. 

[Hex]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Psst, be careful calling Berrios "crap", he is very popular here. 

@BornJetsFan1983 has no issue with that

[Hal N of Provo]

3 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I may be alone here, and maybe I'm wrong, but if you don't score TDs, or at least move the ball effectively, I don't care that you don't throw INTs.  You're not effective.  Brett Favre turned the ball over a ton, but he was also highly effective.  Obviously we want to limit the turnovers, but "he didn't turn the ball over" isn't that laudable when he largely didn't do much of anything.

That's why the Manning comparison re: turnovers was always so cartoonish.  Yes, Manning threw a lot of INTs his rookie year.  He also threw 17 more TDs and 1400 more yards than Wilson.  There's about a 50 yard difference in YPG as well.

I think coaches are working on things and playing the long game.

Zach’s at his best throwing down field.  There are stats that show he’s already near the top of the NFL on deep accuracy. 
 

They still see Aaron Rodgers type play as the goal in the long run.  Pre injury they tried to get it all at once.  They went to a “learn this and we will add to it” approach after the injury and it’s working.   

[Warfish]

Just now, Hal N of Provo said:

There are stats that show he’s already near the top of the NFL on deep accuracy.

Do you have a link to that source, I'd like to take a look at that data.

[Scott Dierking]

The Wilson family is currently in process of requesting a restraining order in protection from Warfish. 😀