Zach Wilson - "Different QB the 2nd Half of the Year"

[Darnold's Forehead]

I'm a simple Zach-hater.  I see a thread criticizing Zach in the slightest, I upvote.

Glad he protected the ball.  We've been plagued by turnover machines at the QB position since Chad left (Favre, Sanchez, Geno, Darnold).

Fixed his inaccuracy issue a bit.  Hope it never comes back.  Handling the pocket, getting the ball out quick and not running backwards like a headless chicken need to be focused on this offseason.  

Hell, if we can have a young QB throwing 0.3 ints a game it can really help this team build, regardless if he doesn't throw for 30 tds.  More TDs and more yards will come with better WEAPONZ and a better DEFENSE.

[ZachEY]

15 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I think coaches are working on things and playing the long game.

Zach’s at his best throwing down field.  There are stats that show he’s already near the top of the NFL on deep accuracy. 
 

They still see Aaron Rodgers type play as the goal in the long run.  Pre injury they tried to get it all at once.  They went to a “learn this and we will add to it” approach after the injury and it’s working.   

And, we're assuming "this" is just not throwing picks?  I don't think we have the luxury of the pace you're describing.  But, we'll see what a full offseason brings.  If he's not showing, by sometime next year, a meaningful step forward, I think you have to give serious consideration to replacing him.

[HawkeyeJet]

In my opinion l, without fact checking it, the rise in sacks and lower completion % likely is more a result of thinking avoid interceptions at all costs more than anything to do with injuries.  More throw away and more eating a sack instead of forcing something when he’s unsure.

[slimjasi]

At this point, I think the Wilson discussions have become largely repetitive and have run their course from an actual content perspective. The critics generally win the day - It's clear that his passing production has to be a lot better in the future. At the same time, as the season progressed, Wilson drastically improved his biggest weakness from earlier in the year (turnovers) and had some promising moments down the stretch.

Wilson has to work on his accuracy and has to stop running backwards as much as he does. I'm a big believer that more yards will come with better weapons (and hopefully) less injuries. Hopefully, Douglas will get this guy at least one more LEGIT WR and some actual NFL-caliber TEs, along with improved depth on the OL. The time for mulligans should be ending soon. 

I am fascinated to see what he looks like week 1 of 2022. Can't wait. 

[bostonmajet]

I think he had more poise (except maybe bills) and more comfort with the O. While he has been limited all year with a lack of Weapons not having Moore really hurt. Then he lost Berrios. Then after not having him for several games he lost Crowder. This could be why his numbers are off. For the Bills game we were running bottom of the barrel on most of the OL - I am glad he survived that attack. I hope he continues to improve.

I feel he grew more and answered a lot more questions than Darnold did his first year, but that could be wishful thinking as I have blocked those years out of my memory. Obviously, he has a much stronger arm. Hopefully, JD got it right and the CS has handled his rookie year correctly - getting a QB is one of the biggest hurdles.

Hopefully he will be even more comfort with the O and have more Poise. Fixing the OL - getting back injured players, draft, FA and adding Targets, getting back Moore, FA/signing Berrios, Draft should help him a lot.

Now to fix the D - that may take much more work .

[HighPitch]

51 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Sorry you feel that way.

I have no plan to argue anything, the stats are the stats.   Good catch on the rushing TD's I did miss that, and it has been added.

I present them to allow others to state their analysis and opinions.

Relax francis im busting em

[HighPitch]

52 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Ouch.

Lol pot, im kettle nice to meet u

[Peace Frog]

Just now, HighPitch said:

Lol pot, im kettle nice to meet u

Was agreeing with you. 

[BroadwayRay]

There were too many variables to draw any meaningful conclusions from a flat comparison of Wilson’s pre-knee-injury and post-injury stats, the biggest being the way the receiving corps was ravaged by injuries in the second half. 

Wilson did play better in the second half, there is no doubt, but the bottom line is that he was still a bad QB even with the improvement. Maybe it’s a gradual learning curve for him and we’ll see dramatic improvement next year. Or, maybe he doesn’t have the mental skills it takes to be an NFL QB and he will never be good.  Impossible to know right now. I’ll withhold judgment for about eight to 10 months. 

[DetroitRed]

9 tds to 2 picks to close the year.  Improvement.  That’s all. 
 

You can go back forth for the next 8 months, and you still don’t know how he will turn out. Sorry, you don’t know jack. So let the team support him properly and let it play out 

[jetstream23]

5 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

9 tds to 2 picks to close the year.  Improvement.  That’s all. 
 

You can go back forth for the next 8 months, and you still don’t know how he will turn out. Sorry, you don’t know jack. So let the team support him properly and let it play out 

But, but his completion % went down by like 3.5%  ?

Here's the thing.  An unfortunate but necessary consequence of throwing fewer INTs was that Zach was going to throw more balls out of bounds when his WRs inevitably failed to get open.  Early in the year he tried to play hero ball and complete passes that weren't there.  I'd rather see him scramble out of the pocket and throw the ball away than force a pass that becomes an INT.  The inability of our WRs at times to win their routes contributes to this.

I think with a general improvement in the offense like adding a TE (we have none), getting guys healthy so that the GVRs and Feeney's aren't playing, and not going into several games with Berrios as WR1 we'll see fewer instances where Zach is forced to throw the ball away.

 

[FidelioJet]

I don't care about the INT's, I don't care about TD's, I don't care about yardage,  I don't care about the talent, I don't care about drop balls, I don't care about the OL, I don't care about the stats.  None of that sh*t matters this year for Zach.

I watch NFL football and have been for a very long time, played football from 6 years old to 22 year olds.

Zach was most clearly and obviously a better QB in the second half of the year.  I find it absurd on a Jet forum that this conversation needs to be had.  Sometimes I wonder if some of you don't actually watch the games or simply don't know what you're watching.

He's playing within a system and the evolution of him playing in that system was clear and inarguable.

His best statistical game was Tenn....and anyone paying attention knows he played better than that many times in the second half of the season.

It was about his comfort level - the way he looked in the pocket, the accuracy of his ball, his footwork, his decision making, his field vision, his timing, etc.. - were all clearly and obviously better.  

I challenge my friend @Warfishto go back to week 1, 2, 3 and 4 (his best statistical game) - watch those games - and then go watch week 13, 15, 16 and 17 and tell me you don't see the massive improvement.  

It's night and day - two completely different players...

[Hal N of Provo]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Do you have a link to that source, I'd like to take a look at that data.

I saw it on Twitter.   I can’t find it.  It wasn’t blow you out of a chair “best QB ever,” stuff.   Something like on passes over 35 yards, 8th best accuracy and 7th on adjusted accuracy or something like that.  It was before the season ended and I can’t find any stats tracked that way on Google.  It was a screengrab from an advanced stats company.  
 

I had given up on the JN Zach wars at the time, or I’d have posted it lol.  

1 hour ago, ZachEY said:

And, we're assuming "this" is just not throwing picks?  I don't think we have the luxury of the pace you're describing.  But, we'll see what a full offseason brings.  If he's not showing, by sometime next year, a meaningful step forward, I think you have to give serious consideration to replacing him.

I think there is progress many ways and next year will be better, but I expect some ups and downs.  
 

Put another way, if the Zach from now played this schedule again I think the team wins a few more games.  This season was an investment. 
 

I’m guessing they are in the playoff hunt next year, but the team was garbage with all 2nd and 3rd stringers.  It’s going to be like BYU not Alabama - a few key injuries can  change the season outlook.  

[Grandy]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Do you have a link to that source, I'd like to take a look at that data.

Source is Sharp Football Analysis. Saw this chart before last weeks game. Might be flawed but it is the 2nd time I've seen a chart like that with similar results. 

[thshadow]

2 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I think he can still become a top QB but there is work to go.  Good game manager for a stretch would be a good sign if they don’t want to loosen the leash until they see it.  When he’s comfortable and seeing it all then the playmaker will come back out.   

His coachability might be his best trait.  The progress and pains are definitely part of a measured approach to progress.  

I think both parts of this are very accurate.  The 2nd half he seemed to be executing the offense as called - which didn't seem to involve many shot plays.  It's not exactly game manager, but it seems like only short and intermediate.  Whether that's the way it will always be, or just that's the way it is now, we'll see.

And WRT coachability - no deep plays is probably the direct opposite of his instincts.  So the fact that he could run a controlled offense is a very good sign IMO.

And of course the truth / obviously correct thing is that we have no idea of whether he'll be a great QB or not.  He'll need to take a big leap from year 1 to year 2 (and probably another one from year 2 to year 3).    Which is not crazy to hope for, it happens a lot - but we'll just have to see...

[Origen]

I wanted him to not look like Mackey Sasser at the end of the season and he didn't, he looked nothing like that, so that's a win for me.

[68JET11]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

However, I'm sort of surprised how his actual passing production actually declined in the 2nd half:

 1. Completion % dropped from 57.5% to 54.0%.

2. Passing Yards/Game dropped from 194.7/game down to 166.6/game.

3. Sacks taken increased from 3.2/game to 3.6/game.

I attribute that to lack of WR that were healthy, and could actually get open, and Sacks because the line was also an injured mess. (Not pointed in your direction my comment), but If you can't see the difference between 1st half Zach and 2nd half Zach then I'm not sure what people are watching. You can see the lose of cobwebs in the 2nd half.  Was he perfect, hell no, but if he can correct that stupid run backwards at the site of a rush, then I believe he will turn the corner. He did not have deer in the headlights look he had in the first half of the season.

[Fantasy Island]

3 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I respect the effort.

But it was the Bucs game.

None of us expected that to happen and I think that offered the most encouragement. That's a good defense, we were down more than a few starters on offense and Wilson played really well. 

And then last Sunday where the team had just 53 yds of offense.  That’s an all time franchise low.

Wilson stinks.  He might get better if Beck can work with him some more.

[Big_Slick]

The only thing that counts is how ZW plays in '22.

Actual NFL games, not OTA's, not pre-season practices or games.

Zach had better come out looking like a potential FQB. No more designing the offense to limit his mistakes.

He was drafted #2 OA because of his 'reported' generational arm talent and his ability to make fantastic off schedule plays. Give him a chance and let Zach prove he's good.

Stop hiding him.

[HawkeyeJet]

I love a good statistical based thread.  In a dream world, I'd so some sort of sports analytics for a living, except I know nothing about stats or analyzing those.  This thread did get me looking at a few things though.  I look at Pro Football References advanced stats a lot.  They often tell quite a different story then regular stats.  I don't think they necessarily are better or more useful than traditional stats, but interesting none the less.  I know what they mean in the sense of how the numbers are calculated etc, but don't necessarily know what, if anything it shows about a player.  

That said, I compared Wilson's season as a whole to that of Mac Jones, who I think without question had the best rookie year, and most people would feel good about his future if he were a Jet.  Traditional Stats is a a no contest, not even a debate.  Advanced stats show a bit of a different story.  I am legitimately throwing this here not to prop up Wilson or anything, I don't even know if these stats do that.  I just find it interesting and this is a rare thread with people respecting other people and presenting data

EDIT:  Sorry, the formatting didn't paste over very well, but Ithink you can still read it.

Jones:

		Air Yards
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2021	23	NWE	QB	10	17	17	352	521	3801	4161	8.0	2027	5.8	3.9	1774	5.0

		Accuracy
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	Throw Away	Spikes	Drops	Drop%	BadTh	Bad%	OnTgt	OnTgt%
2021	23	NWE	QB	10	17	17	352	521	3801	9	12	1	16	3.1%	90	17.7%	387	76.2%

		Pressure
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Sk	PktTime	Bltz	Hrry	Hits	Prss	Prss%	Scrm	Yds/Scr
2021	23	NWE	QB	10	17	17	352	521	3801	28	2.4	181	29	47	104	18.4%	15	7.1

 

Wilson:

		Air Yards
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2021	22	NYJ	QB	2	13	13	213	383	2334	2900	7.6	1245	5.8	3.3	1089	5.1

							Accuracy
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	ThAwy	Spikes	Drops	Drop%	BadTh	Bad%	OnTgt	OnTgt%
2021	22	NYJ	QB	2	13	13	213	383	2334	3	15	1	21	5.7%	82	22.3%	245	66.8%

Games		Pressure
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Sk	PktTime	Bltz	Hrry	Hits	Prss	Prss%	Scrm	Yds/Scr
2021	22	NYJ	QB	2	13	13	213	383	2334	44	2.2	116	60	24	128	28.8%	17	10.5

[tfine]

I attribute that to lack of WR that were healthy, and could actually get open, and Sacks because the line was also an injured mess. (Not pointed in your direction my comment), but If you can't see the difference between 1st half Zach and 2nd half Zach then I'm not sure what people are watching. You can see the lose of cobwebs in the 2nd half.  Was he perfect, hell no, but if he can correct that stupid run backwards at the site of a rush, then I believe he will turn the corner. He did not have deer in the headlights look he had in the first half of the season.

Don’t forget the dropped passes.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[tfine]

And then last Sunday where the team had just 53 yds of offense.  That’s an all time franchise low.
Wilson stinks.  He might get better if Beck can work with him some more.

Who was he going to throw to?


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Beerfish]

The thing that doomed pretty well all of our last great hope qbs was bad turnovers.   The second half of the season was a really good start, he has to build on it.  He also needs more reliable help.

[Snell41]

When averaging 167 yards a game, .71 TD’s a game, and a 54% completion rate signifies a “different QB” and you’re actually referring to improvement……. ????


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[LSJF]

16 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

When averaging 167 yards a game, .71 TD’s a game, and a 54% completion rate signifies a “different QB” and you’re actually referring to improvement……. ????


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

STATZ improves with WEAPONZ, separation and route running equal STATZ , STATZ happen with players…. Fantasy football, lol…. Now if he has those STATZ with players who don’t drop passes or get tackled where they stand , then yeh we have a problem… so STATZ will come, he clearly was more comfortable as the season went on, even with the half a line in front of him… STATZ will happen with players like Moore turning an 8 yard pass to a 20 yard gain, the running game was improving… he threw seeds where in the middle of the year he dirted short passes……STATZ baby…

[Warfish]

32 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

In a dream world, I'd so some sort of sports analytics for a living....

You and me both , brother.

[Aussie Jet]

Douglas could help him out by signing a pass-catching tight end in free agency and drafting a potential stud wide receiver with Seattle's pick, if the draft board falls the right way. The tight end position has been a failure for the Jets for 10+ years.

[RedBeardedSavage]

48 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

And then last Sunday where the team had just 53 yds of offense.  That’s an all time franchise low.

Wilson stinks.  He might get better if Beck can work with him some more.

Play counts and circumstances count.

I think Darnold throws multiple interceptions in that game. Seems looks Trevor and Fields would've too. 

[Hael]

Hmm those advanced stats aren't flattering, you can find them here: 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

His on target % is the worst in the NFL despite the drops.  That's particularly bad b/c its not like he's in an offense that throws a lot of deep balls like Seattle or TB.   

Other data set:

 

The PFF overall rating is bad as well, as are the number of turnover worthy plays vs what you might expect.. see here (top left is bad, bottom right is good):

https://twitter.com/Ihartitz/status/1480599957627363344/photo/1

 

[JohnnyLV]

As one of the resident homers I will say this:

1. Zach's starting point I believe was lower than expected. He clearly had trouble with the speed of regular season football and college football. 

2. Zach was clearly shell shocked and nervous out there mid-season. 

3. The offensive scheme, playcalling and personnel they used especially early for Zach was not ideal. It put him in worse situations not better.

4. Zach did play the hardest set of pass defenses of any QB in the NFL.

BUT by the end of the year over the last 4 games or so the game slowed down, his confidence rose up and as a result every element of his game improved. But still there was little to show for it.

Mid-season I thought Zach was very likely going to be a bust, now I am more 50/50. 

Darnold had a better first year and statistically was very good the end of that first year but he was in my view largely the same QB game 16 as Game 1

Wilson was much worse. But he is a much better QB after game 17 than he was game 1.  So there is reason to be optimistic. I will also say that Zach's skills and athleticism is much higher than Darnold's.

One final question:

Do you feel the Jets "lifted Zach up?" 

[Dunnie]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

This is a sentiment I hear around the forum regularly, that Zach made alot of progress in the second half of the year, was a totally different QB than he was early on, etc.

So I wondered if there was anything in the actual statistical production that would help support that belief, something a bit less subjective that the "eye test" of fans.

Here are the results:

Zach Wilson Week 1-7 (327 Off. Snaps, 6 Games) -- 104 of 181 (57.46%) for 1,168 Passing Yards, 4 TD,  9 INT, 19 Sacks, 6.45 YPA, 8 Rushes for 22 Yards and 0 TD's, and 2 Fumbles.

Zach Wilson Week 12-18 (414 Off. Snaps, 7 Games) -- 109 of 202 (53.96%) for 1,166 Passing Yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 25 Sacks, 5.77 YPA, 21 Rushes for 163 Yards and 4 TD's and 3 Fumbles.

A few positives stick out:

1. Reduced INT's over one additional game, from 9 (1.5/game) to 2 (0.3/game).  A big meaningful improvement here.

2. Increased rushing over one additional game, from 2.75/carry to 7.76/carry.  That big run late in the year certainly helps here, given the small sample size.

However, I'm sort of surprised how his actual passing production actually declined in the 2nd half:

 1. Completion % dropped from 57.5% to 54.0%.

2. Passing Yards/Game dropped from 194.7/game down to 166.6/game.

3. Sacks taken increased from 3.2/game to 3.6/game.

Now, I expect the argument in defense of these numbers to be injuries.  That despite lower per-game production, he was in fact actually playing much better but production was reduced because of diminished O-line play, better decision making and fewer snaps available from his better WR's.  

A look at some reputable O-line ranking site would be a good way to explore the weaker O-line later in the year idea.  

One might also argue we played better Defenses in the second half.  That would just take a review of each opponents Defensive Rankings if that interests you, with Miami, Tampa and Buffalo late it could certainly be true.

And one could, if they wished, look at each skill player, and how many snaps they played from weeks 1-7 and how many they played from weeks 12-18 to at least get a general idea of skill player availability to Zach during each period.

Out of my own curiosity on this one I tested Moore, arguably our best and most explosive WR this season:

Moore played 199 snaps in Weeks 1-7,  was targeted 26 times (5.2/game), made 9 catches (35%) for 79 yards (15.8 YPG)

Moore played 110 snaps in Weeks 12-13, missing Weeks 14-18, was targeted 20 times (10/game), made 10 catches (50%) for 123 yards (61.5 YPG).

Moore played 167 snaps in Weeks 8-11 without Wilson, was targeted 31 times (7.75/game), made 24 catches (77%) for 336 yards (84.0 YPG).

I know we have many Fans who think stats and analysis of them is meaningless or of very limited value. 

So they can feel free to ignore this information or provide their own analysis of it if they wish, no worries.  And some truly do believe the "eye test" is the only test that matters. 

I can respect that, but I think production, and analysis of it, has value and is of interest.  

Enjoy.

Nice writeup .. I am not surprised the numbers went down .. he got reigned in ... now he needs to learn how to get more production using his unique talents.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Dunnie

[HawkeyeJet]

I think I found his stat set I like the least. Woof.

Under Center:

43/94 3td 4 picks 53 passer rating

[RoadFan]

3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

In my opinion l, without fact checking it, the rise in sacks and lower completion % likely is more a result of thinking avoid interceptions at all costs more than anything to do with injuries.  More throw away and more eating a sack instead of forcing something when he’s unsure.

This.  Part of the completion percentage has to be ZW throwing it away.  A lot.

That is a good thing.  Jets have had QBs ala Mark, Geno, and Sam that were still throwing bone-headed picks in year 3.

And thanks for putting that together @Warfish

[jeremy2020]

Different, yes. Better.. sure. Inspiring, no.

The Jets had 53 total net yards -- the lowest single-game total in New York's 62-year history. They traded turnovers for even less effectiveness. He's gonna have to move the ball and avoid turnovers next season. 

[Hal N of Provo]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I love a good statistical based thread.  In a dream world, I'd so some sort of sports analytics for a living, except I know nothing about stats or analyzing those.  This thread did get me looking at a few things though.  I look at Pro Football References advanced stats a lot.  They often tell quite a different story then regular stats.  I don't think they necessarily are better or more useful than traditional stats, but interesting none the less.  I know what they mean in the sense of how the numbers are calculated etc, but don't necessarily know what, if anything it shows about a player.  

That said, I compared Wilson's season as a whole to that of Mac Jones, who I think without question had the best rookie year, and most people would feel good about his future if he were a Jet.  Traditional Stats is a a no contest, not even a debate.  Advanced stats show a bit of a different story.  I am legitimately throwing this here not to prop up Wilson or anything, I don't even know if these stats do that.  I just find it interesting and this is a rare thread with people respecting other people and presenting data

EDIT:  Sorry, the formatting didn't paste over very well, but Ithink you can still read it.

Jones:

		Air Yards
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2021	23	NWE	QB	10	17	17	352	521	3801	4161	8.0	2027	5.8	3.9	1774	5.0

		Accuracy
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	Throw Away	Spikes	Drops	Drop%	BadTh	Bad%	OnTgt	OnTgt%
2021	23	NWE	QB	10	17	17	352	521	3801	9	12	1	16	3.1%	90	17.7%	387	76.2%

		Pressure
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Sk	PktTime	Bltz	Hrry	Hits	Prss	Prss%	Scrm	Yds/Scr
2021	23	NWE	QB	10	17	17	352	521	3801	28	2.4	181	29	47	104	18.4%	15	7.1

 

Wilson:

		Air Yards
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2021	22	NYJ	QB	2	13	13	213	383	2334	2900	7.6	1245	5.8	3.3	1089	5.1

							Accuracy
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Bats	ThAwy	Spikes	Drops	Drop%	BadTh	Bad%	OnTgt	OnTgt%
2021	22	NYJ	QB	2	13	13	213	383	2334	3	15	1	21	5.7%	82	22.3%	245	66.8%

Games		Pressure
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	Sk	PktTime	Bltz	Hrry	Hits	Prss	Prss%	Scrm	Yds/Scr
2021	22	NYJ	QB	2	13	13	213	383	2334	44	2.2	116	60	24	128	28.8%	17	10.5

I’ve started using my phone to take screen shots.   I can’t get anything to format lol