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"Poor Throw %" and how it relates to Zach Wilson vs. the rest of the league


Jetsfan80
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18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Much has been made of Wilson's weapons, or lack thereof, when analyzing his improved play over Weeks 12-18 compared to Weeks 1-7.  So, piggybacking off of @Warfish's thread, I felt this deserved one of its own.  

Here's a fairly good metric that isolates out the WR aspect of the equation:  Poor throws and poor throw %.

According to pro-football-reference, Wilson had 87 total "Poor Throws" on the season on 383 attempts, or 23.8 % of his throws:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/gamelog/2021/advanced/

In Weeks 1-7, he had 46 bad throws on 181 attempts, or 25.4 %.

In Weeks 12-18, he had 41 bad throws on 202 attempts, or 20.3 %.

So he did improve in this category.  But where do those numbers compare to the rest of the league?  Unfortunately, the site doesn't provide the rankings, so I had to look up all the QB's in the league with 6+ starts this season to find this information.  These are the rankings:

  1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 %
  2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 %
  3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 %
  4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 %
  5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 %
  6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 %
  7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 %
  8. Derek Carr:  15.5 %
  9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 %
  10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 %
  11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 %
  12. Jared Goff:  16.5 %
  13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 %
  14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 %
  15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 %
  16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 %
  17. Josh Allen:  17.4 %
  18. Davis Mills:  17.4 %
  19. Mac Jones:  17.7 %
  20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 %
  21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 %
  22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 %
  23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 %
  24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 %
  25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 %
  26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 %
  27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 %
  28. Tom Brady:  19.0 %
  29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 %
  30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %
  31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 %
  32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 %
  33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 %
  34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %
  35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 %
  36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 %
  37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 %

 

Certainly, some will look at the above list and notice some pretty bad QB's towards the top of the list, and some better ones towards the bottom.  Obviously, this metric is influenced by how risk-averse a QB is.  The more risks a QB takes, the higher % of "poor throws" there will be.  Some really good QB's tend to take a lot of risks.  

But does that argument help or hurt Wilson?  After all, he was instructed to take less chances in the 2nd half of his rookie season, and his INT's went down.  But his poor throw % from Weeks 12-18, if extrapolated to a full season, still would have ranked him near the bottom of the league.  

 

Mad Men Not Great Bob GIF

Bad throws also include throwing the ball away while you running for your life. Did you added under pressure throws as part of your equation?

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3 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So this will be the daily drill going forward with the “Tell Me You Think Zach Wilson Sucks Without Saying Zach Wilson Sucks” thread. 

Couched in the “I felt this Zach Wilson sucks thread deserved it’s own Zach Wilson sucks thread because it would get buried in the other Zach Wilson sucks threads”.  

Cannot wait for next September. 

So, are you saying Zach Wilson sucks?

 

Tell Me More Jeff Goldblum GIF by National Geographic Channel

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23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Much has been made of Wilson's weapons, or lack thereof, when analyzing his improved play over Weeks 12-18 compared to Weeks 1-7.  So, piggybacking off of @Warfish's thread, I felt this deserved one of its own.  

Here's a fairly good metric that isolates out the WR aspect of the equation:  Poor throws and poor throw %.

According to pro-football-reference, Wilson had 87 total "Poor Throws" on the season on 383 attempts, or 23.8 % of his throws:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/gamelog/2021/advanced/

In Weeks 1-7, he had 46 bad throws on 181 attempts, or 25.4 %.

In Weeks 12-18, he had 41 bad throws on 202 attempts, or 20.3 %.

So he did improve in this category.  But where do those numbers compare to the rest of the league?  Unfortunately, the site doesn't provide the rankings, so I had to look up all the QB's in the league with 6+ starts this season to find this information.  These are the rankings:

  1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 %
  2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 %
  3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 %
  4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 %
  5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 %
  6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 %
  7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 %
  8. Derek Carr:  15.5 %
  9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 %
  10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 %
  11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 %
  12. Jared Goff:  16.5 %
  13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 %
  14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 %
  15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 %
  16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 %
  17. Josh Allen:  17.4 %
  18. Davis Mills:  17.4 %
  19. Mac Jones:  17.7 %
  20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 %
  21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 %
  22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 %
  23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 %
  24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 %
  25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 %
  26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 %
  27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 %
  28. Tom Brady:  19.0 %
  29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 %
  30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %
  31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 %
  32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 %
  33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 %
  34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %
  35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 %
  36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 %
  37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 %

 

Certainly, some will look at the above list and notice some pretty bad QB's towards the top of the list, and some better ones towards the bottom.  Obviously, this metric is influenced by how risk-averse a QB is.  The more risks a QB takes, the higher % of "poor throws" there will be.  Some really good QB's tend to take a lot of risks.  

But does that argument help or hurt Wilson?  After all, he was instructed to take less chances in the 2nd half of his rookie season, and his INT's went down.  But his poor throw % from Weeks 12-18, if extrapolated to a full season, still would have ranked him near the bottom of the league.  

 

Mad Men Not Great Bob GIF

I mean im not sure the point of all this. People that dont like ZW will continue to feel that way. People that do like ZW will continue to feel that way. No one is flipping the other side. He's going to be the QB here for at least the next 2 years. So... posts like this are about as useful as an as*hole on an elbow

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18 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I know you can't just start omitting games but I do wonder where Zach shakes out if you remove the 4 INT game against the Pat's and the Bills game to end the season.

I think the Pats would change a bit, but I don't think this last game would affect his poor throw %. Didn't seem like that was his issue on Sunday. 

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27 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I know you can't just start omitting games but I do wonder where Zach shakes out if you remove the 4 INT game against the Pat's and the Bills game to end the season.

Why omit those?  These are about bad throws (I.E. isolating Wilson's play), not weapons or a lack thereof.  

But fine, let's say we did remove those games.  That drops his # of bad throws to 79 out of 353 total throws, or 22.4 %.  I.E. it doesn't change much for his season-long #'s.  

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4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

That actually sounds like it would be an incredibly useful and more ergonomic thing to have.

"He gave him the old e.coli in the corner!" would be a real Hockey call.  Or, "He crammed his colon into the craw" something along those lines uttered by Doc Emrick.

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25 minutes ago, docdhc said:

Any stat where Tom Brady and Aaron  Rodgers are much worse than Jalen Hurts, Taylor Heineke, Tua, and Jacoby Brissett doesn't seem very relevant to me.

I addressed this in the post.  Brady and Rodgers take more risks, which increases their poor throw %.  

No metric is perfect, but it does seem like you want to be somewhere in that 16-19 % "sweet spot" to be happy about your performance, unless of course you're a total boss like Joe Burrow, that is.  @RoadFan.   

Any lower than 16 %, generally, and you're not taking enough risks or shots downfield.  Any higher than that and you're missing far too many of the easy throws. 

Given that Wilson took a lot let risks in Weeks 12-18, its a bit alarming to see his poor throw % exceeding 20 % in that span.  

I think we can all agree that the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields is NOT the kind of company we want Wilson to be in, no?  

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32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Much has been made of Wilson's weapons, or lack thereof, when analyzing his improved play over Weeks 12-18 compared to Weeks 1-7.  So, piggybacking off of @Warfish's thread, I felt this deserved one of its own.  

Here's a fairly good metric that isolates out the WR aspect of the equation:  Poor throws and poor throw %.

According to pro-football-reference, Wilson had 87 total "Poor Throws" on the season on 383 attempts, or 23.8 % of his throws:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/gamelog/2021/advanced/

In Weeks 1-7, he had 46 bad throws on 181 attempts, or 25.4 %.

In Weeks 12-18, he had 41 bad throws on 202 attempts, or 20.3 %.

So he did improve in this category.  But where do those numbers compare to the rest of the league?  Unfortunately, the site doesn't provide the rankings, so I had to look up all the QB's in the league with 6+ starts this season to find this information.  These are the rankings:

  1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 %
  2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 %
  3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 %
  4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 %
  5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 %
  6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 %
  7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 %
  8. Derek Carr:  15.5 %
  9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 %
  10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 %
  11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 %
  12. Jared Goff:  16.5 %
  13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 %
  14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 %
  15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 %
  16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 %
  17. Josh Allen:  17.4 %
  18. Davis Mills:  17.4 %
  19. Mac Jones:  17.7 %
  20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 %
  21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 %
  22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 %
  23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 %
  24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 %
  25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 %
  26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 %
  27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 %
  28. Tom Brady:  19.0 %
  29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 %
  30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %
  31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 %
  32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 %
  33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 %
  34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %
  35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 %
  36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 %
  37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 %

 

Certainly, some will look at the above list and notice some pretty bad QB's towards the top of the list, and some better ones towards the bottom.  Obviously, this metric is influenced by how risk-averse a QB is.  The more risks a QB takes, the higher % of "poor throws" there will be.  Some really good QB's tend to take a lot of risks.  

But does that argument help or hurt Wilson?  After all, he was instructed to take less chances in the 2nd half of his rookie season, and his INT's went down.  But his poor throw % from Weeks 12-18, if extrapolated to a full season, still would have ranked him near the bottom of the league.  

 

Mad Men Not Great Bob GIF

First, you're calculating the percentages wrong. Poor Throw % excludes spikes and throwaways, so (working backwards from the numbers there) its 41 against only 190 attempts, or 21.5% from weeks 12-18. But that also means that all the percentages you calculated for other QBs & Zach Weeks 1-7 are also wrong, so ... go do that work again so we can get a better sense of the comparison?

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17 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So this will be the daily drill going forward with the “Tell Me You Think Zach Wilson Sucks Without Saying Zach Wilson Sucks” thread. 

Couched in the “I felt this Zach Wilson sucks thread deserved it’s own Zach Wilson sucks thread because it would get buried in the other Zach Wilson sucks threads”.  

Cannot wait for next September. 

Zach Wilson does suck, but he has a high ceiling.  🏙🌠✈️🚀🛸🚁

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3 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Never change bud. 

It took you 72 hours after the season ended to find some crap stats to pad your hatred of Zach. 

48 hours longer than I expected. 

Debate the point, not the poster.  I'm curious as to the mental gymnastics you choose to employ to make you feel better about this.  

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4 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

First, you're calculating the percentages wrong. Poor Throw % excludes spikes and throwaways, so (working backwards from the numbers there) its 41 against only 190 attempts, or 21.5% from weeks 12-18. But that also means that all the percentages you calculated for other QBs & Zach Weeks 1-7 are also wrong, so ... go do that work again so we can get a better sense of the comparison?

I'm not going through 37 other QB's to isolate their play Weeks 1-7 and 12-18.  I'll maybe do that for the other rookies but its senseless to do so for all of them. 

We all agree Wilson played better in Weeks 12-18, and that this improvement was encouraging out of our rookie QB.  So even when isolating his Week 12-18 performance to make him look better, he still ranked 30th among season-long stats, which featured a more stable list of veteran QB's whose poor throw % probably didn't change a whole lot from the first half of the season to the 2nd.  

This was an attempt to make Wilson look good and it still didn't work for him.  Sorry to be the bearer of bad news on this one.  

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31 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

What's the point here?

That Zach Wilson had a rough rookie year but was substantially better in the second half than the first half of the season?

Agreed!

I do appreciate the work here though - thank you!

 

The point is he was better in the 2nd half than the first but that he still didn't meet the standards to have that play be deemed "good" from a league-wide perspective.  It was also an attempt to show how Wilson's play looked when isolating out the "weppinz" variable that gets brought up in every Wilson thread attempting to evaluate his play.

But if you're happy with Wilson's bad throw % being about 30th best in the league from Weeks 12-18 then I'm happy, Fido.  

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27 minutes ago, Bronx said:

Bad throws also include throwing the ball away while you running for your life. Did you added under pressure throws as part of your equation?

I didn't create the metric.  Pro-Footbal-Reference did.  Take it up with them.  I assume that every QB in the league throws balls away under pressure, and I also have to assume those throws don't count as "poor throws".  I assume they mean that a throw was inaccurate to an intended receiver.  

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I addressed this in the post.  Brady and Rodgers take more risks, which increases their poor throw %.  

No metric is perfect, but it does seem like you want to be somewhere in that 16-19 % "sweet spot" to be happy about your performance, unless of course you're a total boss like Joe Burrow, that is.  @RoadFan.   

Any lower than 16 %, generally, and you're not taking enough risks or shots downfield.  Any higher than that and you're missing far too many of the easy throws. 

Given that Wilson took a lot let risks in Weeks 12-18, its a bit alarming to see his poor throw % exceeding 20 % in that span.  

I think we can all agree that the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields is NOT the kind of company we want Wilson to be in, no?  

I appreciate your posting this, I enjoyed reading it.  My conclusion, though,  would still be that any stat that has the obvious best QBs in the league way behind some terrible ones fails to be a "good metric" for any meaningful conclusions.

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21 minutes ago, The Engineer said:

I mean im not sure the point of all this. People that dont like ZW will continue to feel that way. People that do like ZW will continue to feel that way. No one is flipping the other side. He's going to be the QB here for at least the next 2 years. So... posts like this are about as useful as an as*hole on an elbow

Cool, so let's just not talk about Zach Wilson the rest of the offseason, then?

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19 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

That actually sounds like it would be an incredibly useful and more ergonomic thing to have.

Yeah then you need a second pair of undies on your elbow. No thank you, ma'am. 

edit: though upon further consideration, it would provide some justification for not knowing one's ass from one's elbow. I'd have a valid reply/excuse when Mrs. Sperm expresses her periodic assessment of my knowledge.

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Just now, docdhc said:

I appreciate your posting this, I enjoyed reading it.  My conclusion, though,  would still be that any stat that has the obvious best QBs in the league way behind some terrible ones fails to be a "good metric" for any meaningful conclusions.

Well, every other metric I've seen says Wilson played bad, also, so are we to conclude that he's secretly good based on this then? 

Instead of people complaining about what I presented, it would be helpful for folks to put in the leg work on their end and counter the point with #'s of their own.  People suggesting any metric is "useless" without providing adequate proof as to WHY its useless, or countering it with metrics of their own, doesn't advance the conversation a whole lot.  

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30 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So this will be the daily drill going forward with the “Tell Me You Think Zach Wilson Sucks Without Saying Zach Wilson Sucks” thread. 

Couched in the “I felt this Zach Wilson sucks thread deserved it’s own Zach Wilson sucks thread because it would get buried in the other Zach Wilson sucks threads”.  

Cannot wait for next September. 

Yeah, that's exactly what's going to happen, with the sole purpose of making you upset.  It'll be fun for me.  

You should have thought about this when you threw your insulting Sam Darnold victory lap in Week 3.  

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32 minutes ago, docdhc said:

Any stat where Tom Brady and Aaron  Rodgers are much worse than Jalen Hurts, Taylor Heineke, Tua, and Jacoby Brissett doesn't seem very relevant to me.

How many "post of the week" am I allowed to to give on a particular day?

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28 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So this will be the daily drill going forward with the “Tell Me You Think Zach Wilson Sucks Without Saying Zach Wilson Sucks” thread. 

Couched in the “I felt this Zach Wilson sucks thread deserved it’s own Zach Wilson sucks thread because it would get buried in the other Zach Wilson sucks threads”.  

Cannot wait for next September. 

No one makes you read them, champ. 

And yes, I would expect to see at least one Zach centric thread/discussion every day from now until long after Zach finishes his career with the Jets.  Same as we had (and have) for previous QB's.  They're kinda important, so folks like to talk about them alot.

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Not sure what a “poor throw” percentage is, or what constitutes a “poor throw”, but I love how Zach is on the list three times and that Sam Darnold has a better “poor throw” percentage than Mahomes or Tom Brady. That tells you all you need to know about these “analytics” LOL


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