"Poor Throw %" and how it relates to Zach Wilson vs. the rest of the league

[UntouchableCrew]

18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Interesting you bring up Garoppolo, since he plays in basically the same highly risk-averse system Wilson plays in.

Meaning this doesn’t make the point you think it does.

Being risk averse and avoiding poor throws aren't the same thing and such a claim isn't at all backed up by this chart.

Joe Burrow slings it all the time. He's not risk averse but he's #1 on this list.

Tyrod Taylor is one of the most conservative game managers on this list and he's at the bottom.

Aaron Rodgers is surgical, he rarely ever puts the ball at risk and he's 20.

[Smashmouth]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

On top of this, you have the crappy wrs and all the injuries.  It’s not as if wilson was waiting for Stefan diggs and Keenan allen to get open.  

I would give you this comparison if Zach was hitting on the short throws but he didn't. Even a percentage of his short completions were off the mark causing the RB/WR to adjust to catch the ball taking them out of their rhythm

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Eyes lie.  Stats really don’t when used correctly.  

You can use football stats anyway you think they’re being used correctly but they have to be used in context.  Football isn’t not a one man sport.  Every pass, reception run etc required more than one player

‘And if you’re going to say that they’re more accurrate than the eye test you’d have to watch every QB in every game he played to prove that.  I’m guessing no one can say that and you wouldnt

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Well this is pretty much something we already know but a 3% Improvement is hard to call an improvement in this category.

Well, it's 5%...(25% first half - 20% second half)

and if he improved another 5% from that he would be 7 in the league.  5% is kinda a huge deal if you take this chart for anything.

[oatmeal]

Zach had a rough rookie year.

 Big deal! 
 

Regardless he showed growth as the season progressed with nothing really around him and he can make throws not many QBs in this league can make. 

 

Stop crying the kid will be a fine

[Spoot-Face]

Actual footage of @Jetsfan80 and @Warfish compiling stats for their Zach Wilson threads:

[oatmeal]

4 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

I would give you this comparison if Zach was hitting on the short throws but he didn't. Even a percentage of his short completions were off the mark causing the RB/WR to adjust to catch the ball taking them out of their rhythm

So let’s ignore how he fixed this issue down the stretch though… 

[JTJet]

23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

When have I ever attacked you instead of the points?

I do attack Fido and Peace Frog though.  I’ll give you that.  

I'm not saying you attacked me. Just a generalization. 

[FidelioJet]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Much has been made of Wilson's weapons, or lack thereof, when analyzing his improved play over Weeks 12-18 compared to Weeks 1-7.  So, piggybacking off of @Warfish's thread, I felt this deserved one of its own.  

Here's a fairly good metric that isolates out the WR aspect of the equation:  Poor throws and poor throw %.

According to pro-football-reference, Wilson had 87 total "Poor Throws" on the season on 383 attempts, or 23.8 % of his throws:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/gamelog/2021/advanced/

In Weeks 1-7, he had 46 bad throws on 181 attempts, or 25.4 %.

In Weeks 12-18, he had 41 bad throws on 202 attempts, or 20.3 %.

So he did improve in this category.  But where do those numbers compare to the rest of the league?  Unfortunately, the site doesn't provide the rankings, so I had to look up all the QB's in the league with 6+ starts this season to find this information.  These are the rankings:

1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 %
2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 %
3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 %
4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 %
5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 %
6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 %
7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 %
8. Derek Carr:  15.5 %
9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 %
10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 %
11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 %
12. Jared Goff:  16.5 %
13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 %
14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 %
15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 %
16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 %
17. Josh Allen:  17.4 %
18. Davis Mills:  17.4 %
19. Mac Jones:  17.7 %
20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 %
21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 %
22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 %
23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 %
24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 %
25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 %
26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 %
27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 %
28. Tom Brady:  19.0 %
29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 %
30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %
31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 %
32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 %
33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 %
34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %
35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 %
36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 %
37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 %

 

Certainly, some will look at the above list and notice some pretty bad QB's towards the top of the list, and some better ones towards the bottom.  Obviously, this metric is influenced by how risk-averse a QB is.  The more risks a QB takes, the higher % of "poor throws" there will be.  Some really good QB's tend to take a lot of risks.  

But does that argument help or hurt Wilson?  After all, he was instructed to take less chances in the 2nd half of his rookie season, and his INT's went down.  But his poor throw % from Weeks 12-18, if extrapolated to a full season, still would have ranked him near the bottom of the league.  

 

Do you know the definition of "Poor Throw" - did they give you that?

Curious if they included bad decisions or was it just inaccurate or thrown into coverage etc...

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

No one makes you read them, champ. 

And yes, I would expect to see at least one Zach centric thread/discussion every day from now until long after Zach finishes his career with the Jets.  Same as we had (and have) for previous QB's.  They're kinda important, so folks like to talk about them alot.

By the way, I like this stuff now.

What the heck else are we going to discuss for the next few months?  Might not agree with them, but we're all here for fun and like talking Jets.

[Pac]

I've just completed a comprehensive analysis of 80's posts and have deduced:

- 80 is wrong 94.8% of the time

- 80 is embarrassingly wrong 86.4% of the time

- 80 is a putz 100% of the time

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, Pac said:

I've just completed a comprehensive analysis of 80's post and have deduced:

- 80 is wrong 94.8% of the time

- 80 is embarrassingly wrong 86.4% of the time

- 80 is a putz 100% of the time

Is that actual or adjusted? 

[DetroitRed]

Bad throws, good throws and so-so throws.  Seems really reliable to me

[bla bla bla]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Why omit those?  These are about bad throws (I.E. isolating Wilson's play), not weapons or a lack thereof.  

But fine, let's say we did remove those games.  That drops his # of bad throws to 79 out of 353 total throws, or 22.4 %.  I.E. it doesn't change much for his season-long #'s.  

My thought of isolating those games was maybe Zach was forcing throws in both those but based on your numbers that didn't change much.

[Integrity28]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

4 better throws of his 202, in the second half, would put him with Rodgers...

Point is, as bad as so many y'all said he was - slight improvements will sky rocket him up this chart.

 

 

lol “chart”

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

First, you're calculating the percentages wrong. Poor Throw % excludes spikes and throwaways, so (working backwards from the numbers there) its 41 against only 190 attempts, or 21.5% from weeks 12-18. But that also means that all the percentages you calculated for other QBs & Zach Weeks 1-7 are also wrong, so ... go do that work again so we can get a better sense of the comparison?

hahaha math

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Debate the point, not the poster.  I'm curious as to the mental gymnastics you choose to employ to make you feel better about this.  

posts gobbledygook stats and thesis statement.

accuses others of mental gymnastics.

 

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

lol “chart”

hahaha math

posts gobbledygook stats and thesis statement.

accuses others of mental gymnastics.

 

You just don’t like anything do you?

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Why omit those?  These are about bad throws (I.E. isolating Wilson's play), not weapons or a lack thereof.  

But fine, let's say we did remove those games.  That drops his # of bad throws to 79 out of 353 total throws, or 22.4 %.  I.E. it doesn't change much for his season-long #'s.  

In my book ANY QB who has Tom Brady and a Top 3 Defense beat playing with pure garbage at the skill positions for 59 minutes 45 seconds deserves to get a look see the following year, No?

Sanchez, Geno Smith, Darnold...lose that game 45 zip....as does Pre Injury Wilson...the Kid has made definite strides.

[Jetfuel66]

3 hours ago, Bronx said:

Bad throws also include throwing the ball away while you running for your life. Did you added under pressure throws as part of your equation?

Excellent point!

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Pac said:

I've just completed a comprehensive analysis of 80's post and have deduced:

- 80 is wrong 94.8% of the time

- 80 is embarrassingly wrong 86.4% of the time

- 80 is a putz 100% of the time

But does it pass the eye test?

[jetstream23]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

• Tom Brady:  19.0 %
• Lamar Jackson:  19.7 %
• Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %
• Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 %

Meh, I'm not sure I can read anything into this?  Once he got his bearings he was throwing balls as poorly as Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence?

Can we really glean anything from that other than he was roughly in the company of another rookie and the greatest QB in NFL history?

 

[Peace Frog]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Meh, I'm not sure I can read anything into this?  Once he got his bearings he was throwing balls as poorly as Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence?

Can we really glean anything from that other than he was roughly in the company of another rookie and the greatest QB in NFL history?

 

Just pile it onto the mountain of evidence. 

[Hal N of Provo]

Here is an equation leading to advanced analytics :

+ 

= 

[jetstream23]

I just don't think we know enough yet about any of these rookies.

If I had to guess I'd suggest that Mac Jones isn't quite as good as he has looked and Justin Fields, Wilson, Lawrence might not be as bad as they've looked.  I mean, are we thinking that Zach, Trevor and Fields are all going to continue throwing more INTs than TDs each season as they all did in 2021?  I don't.

I don't know if we should give Zach a ton of credit for 5 straight games without an INT if the Jets are losing most of those games.  I also don't think we should give him a ton of blame for a higher incompletion % if he's forced to throw balls out of bounds when guys aren't open and he's being coached not to throw risky passes.

Stats can tell whatever story you want them to but the fact is that we just need to see more games from all these guys.  I mean, why does Zach Wilson have more yards per completion than Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, etc.?  Does that even mean anything?  What about a correlation between the success of these QBs and the number of times they were sacked.  Zach was sacked 44 times,  Trevor and Fields 30+ times each, Mac Jones 28 times.

No clue whether Zach will take the second year leap and show he's on a path to being a potential FQB or if he'll just level out and be an adequate guy that the Jets look to replace as they did with Darnold.  If I had to guess we'll know after the first 8 games next season.  If the INTs stay low but he begins to lead more scoring drives and can really leverage guys like Elijah Moore and Corey Davis then maybe we have something.  Until then... no clue.

 

[slimjasi]

26 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Meh, I'm not sure I can read anything into this?  Once he got his bearings he was throwing balls as poorly as Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence?

Can we really glean anything from that other than he was roughly in the company of another rookie and the greatest QB in NFL history?

 

Right. I think we may be starting to jump the shark with some of these subjective advanced stats. 

One basic problem with this one is that over half of the QBs on this list are bunched between 17% and 24% - that's not much of a range. One immediate question that would come to mind would be - is there a statistically significant difference between, for example, 19% (Tom Brady) and 20.3% ( Zach Wilson between weeks 12-18)? A difference of 1.3% doesn't seem very large. What about between 20.3% (Zach Wilson between weeks 12-18) and 19.7% (Lamar Jackson)? What about between 19% (Tom Brady) and 19.7% (Lamar Jackson)? 

The small margins combined with the lack of objective standard for what constitutes a "poor throw" make me skeptical. 

It's an interesting idea though. 

[Spoot-Face]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

You just don’t like anything do you?

Just bananas and pooping

[jetstream23]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Right. I think we may be starting to jump the shark with some of these subjective advanced stats. 

Bro, I think you're on to something here!  This might just be our newest and most innovative way of assessing quarterbacks....

Subjective Advanced Statistics

[Jean74]

Well just give him a chance Zach Wilson. As really need to build the team around the kid. Hopefully he will be there for years to come.

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

You just don’t like anything do you?

I don’t like dumb things.

That said, I can see how you’d get the impression I don’t like anything at all based on only seeing how I reply to people here. 

[Integrity28]

12 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Just bananas and pooping

The correlation between a good banana and a good poopie cannot be ignored.

[Hal N of Provo]

5 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Bro, I think you're on to something here!  This might just be our newest and most innovative way of assessing quarterbacks....

Subjective Advanced Statistics

I think the word quantitative belongs in there somewhere 

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I think the word quantitative belongs in there somewhere 

Idk, "SAS" has a nice ring to it

[Spoot-Face]

12 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Bro, I think you're on to something here!  This might just be our newest and most innovative way of assessing quarterbacks....

Subjective Advanced Statistics

We can call it being "SASSY"

[Spoot-Face]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Idk, "SAS" has a nice ring to it

 

Just now, Spoot-Face said:

We can call it being "SASSY"

[Darnold's Forehead]

This thread is pathetic and anyone who posted an opinionated response without backing up said opinion with facts should be embarrassed.  This place is so partisan regarding Zach and certain players out of college every year that it makes me sick.

Zach had a TERRIBLE year.  Anyone trying to argue this because of weapinz or being a rookie is delusional.  However, he improved.  He should get one more year.  If he proves that improvement was a fluke (aka Darnold) and it’s time to move on or bench him.

[jetstream23]

20 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I think the word quantitative belongs in there somewhere 

No doubt.  But that will be included in my own proprietary tool similar to how Football Outsiders has DVOA.

You can subscribe to my new Quantitative Algorithmic Data Opinions Tool (QADOT) for $1.99 per month.  It's already crunching away on numbers right now on a super computer.  I'll give you a sneak peak at some early results...

 

Quote

Adjusted Opinionated Yards Per Carry by RBs (NFL History Since 1967)

..

11.  Michael Carter, New York Jets - 6.71

12. Walter Payton, Chicago Bears - 6.69

.

..

We've got some Michael Carter junkies around here who will eat that sh!t up!

 

You'll have to subscribe to see the rest. ?