"Poor Throw %" and how it relates to Zach Wilson vs. the rest of the league

[Hal N of Provo]

4 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

This thread is pathetic and anyone who posted an opinionated response without backing up said opinion with facts should be embarrassed.  This place is so partisan regarding Zach and certain players out of college every year that it makes me sick.

Zach had a TERRIBLE year.  Anyone trying to argue this because of weapinz or being a rookie is delusional.  However, he improved.  He should get one more year.  If he proves that improvement was a fluke (aka Darnold) and it’s time to move on or bench him.

“You should be ashamed for posting opinions without facts - makes me SICK!,”

<proceeds to post opinions without facts>
 

Strong work!

 

[Greenseed4]

Remember those two games when Bryce Young played Georgia… 

In the first game he had his top weapons and went: 26/44 (.59), 421 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT  
Jameson Williams: 7 rec., 184 yds, 2 TDs. 
John Metchie: 6 rec., 97 yds, 1 TDs

In the championship game he didn’t have Metchie and lost JW early in the 2nd QTR (12:34 remaining); he finished: 35/57 (.61), 369 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT  

10/15 before losing JW (.66)   
25/42 after losing JW (.59)
 

WEAPONZ  MATTER

[jetstream23]

2 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Remember those two games when Bryce Young played Georgia… 

In the first game he had his top weapons and went: 26/44 (.59), 421 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT  
Jameson Williams: 7 rec., 184 yds, 2 TDs. 
John Metchie: 6 rec., 97 yds, 1 TDs

In the championship game he didn’t have Metchie and lost JW early in the 2nd QTR (12:34 remaining); he finished: 35/57 (.61), 369 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT  

10/15 before losing JW (.66)   
25/42 after losing JW (.59)
 

WEAPONZ  MATTER

 

Stop confusing people with facts.  Wilson should have beat Buffalo.  It doesn't matter if you're missing your LT1, LT2, OG2, C1, WR1, WR2, WR3, most of your TEs, your right arm and your left nut!  Winners win man!!!

 

[Greenseed4]

Another benefit:  an elbow-anus could be casually held out of a car window for really gassy commutes. 
 

[Spoot-Face]

30 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

No doubt.  But that will be included in my own proprietary tool similar to how Football Outsiders has DVOA.

You can subscribe to my new Quantitative Algorithmic Data Opinions Tool (QADOT) for $1.99 per month.  It's already crunching away on numbers right now on a super computer.  I'll give you a sneak peak at some early results...

 

We've got some Michael Carter junkies around here who will eat that sh!t up!

 

You'll have to subscribe to see the rest. ?

 

 

nice

[Wit]

10 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Another benefit:  an elbow-anus could be casually held out of a car window for really gassy commutes. 
 

[jetswinbaby!]

So you have presented a stat that proves absolutely nothing...

 

 

[Spoot-Face]

14 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Another benefit:  an elbow-anus could be casually held out of a car window for really gassy commutes. 
 

And yet, I feel that people still wouldn't want to carpool with @Integrity28 if that were a thing.

[Jetsfan80]

Below, I've added Intended Air Yards per Attempt into the equation (their NFL rank in the category is in perentheses), to see if some of the passers with higher "Poor throw %" seemingly tend to take more risks.

Poor Throw %

1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 % -- 8.1 Intended Air Yards/Attempt (# 11)
2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 % -- 7.5 (# 22)
3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 % -- 9.0 (# 4)
4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 % -- 8.0 (# 13)
5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 % -- 7.1 (# 28)
6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 % -- 7.6 (# 18)
7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 % -- 7.7 (# 16)
8. Derek Carr:  15.5 % -- 8.1 (# 10)
9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 % -- 7.5 (# 23)
10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 % -- 7.0 (# 29)
11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 % -- 7.6 (# 20)
12. Jared Goff:  16.5 % -- 6.4 (# 31)
13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 % -- N/A
14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 % -- 8.0 (# 14)
15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 % -- 8.2 (# 8 )
16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 % -- N/A
17. Josh Allen:  17.4 % -- 8.2 (# 7)
18. Davis Mills:  17.4 % -- 7.2 (# 26)
19. Mac Jones:  17.7 % -- 8.0 (# 12)
20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 % -- 7.7 (# 17)
21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 % -- 6.7 (# 30)
22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 % -- 7.2 (# 27)
23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 % -- 7.3 (# 25)
24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 % -- 8.5 (# 6)
25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 % -- 9.9 (# 1)
26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 % -- 7.3 (# 24)
27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 % -- 7.6 (# 19)
28. Tom Brady:  19.0 % -- 8.1 (# 9)
29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 % -- 9.3 (# 3)
30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %  -- 6.6 (would rank # 31) 
31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 % -- 7.9 (# 15)
32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 % -- 8.6 (# 5)
33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 % -- N/A
34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %  -- 9.8 (# 2)
35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 % -- N/A
36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 % -- 7.6 (# 21)
37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 % -- 8.7 (would rank # 5)

 

As you can see, Garoppolo, Tannehill, Tua, Heinicke, Goff, and Davis Mills, who all ranked # 20 or lower in IAY/attempt but were in the top 20 in best "Poor Throw %", seemingly had their Poor throw % inflated based on conservative throwing.  

More surprising, of course, is the placement of Rodgers and Mahomes despite being relatively conservative.  

Pertaining to Wilson, he had an enormous drop in IAY/attempt from Week 1-7 to Week 12-18.  He ranked near the top in the NFL in Air Yard attempts per throw.  He dropped towards the bottom of the league in air yards per throw in Weeks 12-18.  Thus, he ended up finishing outside of the top 20 overall in IAY/attempt.  

His fellow rookies Fields, Lawrence, and Mac Jones all pushed the ball downfield more during their rookie seasons, each finishing within the top 15 in that category.  Davis Mills was a lot more conservative but at the same time, is poor throw % fell more in line with the league average.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Meh, I'm not sure I can read anything into this?  Once he got his bearings he was throwing balls as poorly as Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence?

Can we really glean anything from that other than he was roughly in the company of another rookie and the greatest QB in NFL history?

 

Brady ranked 9th in the NFL in Intended Air Yards per Attempt.  Lamar Jackson was 3rd.  Lawrence was 15th.  Wilson was 21st, and in Weeks 12-18, he was near the bottom of the NFL.

Thus, we can glean from this that Brady and Jackson were far more aggressive than Wilson yet still threw for a better "poor ball %". 

Lawrence was a bit more aggressive overall, and a good bit more aggressive in Weeks 12-18 when compared to Wilson.  In that span, Lawrence's IAY/attempt was 7.7, and his poor throw % was 15.4 %.  Wilson's IAY/attempt was 6.6, with a bad throw % of 20.3.  Lawrence's IAY/attempt when extrapolated to a full year would be middle of the pack.  Wilson's would be at or near the bottom of the league.  

[BurntDice]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Brady ranked 9th in the NFL in Intended Air Yards per Attempt.  Lamar Jackson was 3rd.  Lawrence was 15th.  Wilson was 21st, and in Weeks 12-18, he was near the bottom of the NFL.

Thus, we can glean from this that Brady and Jackson were far more aggressive than Wilson yet still threw for a better "poor ball %". 

Lawrence was a bit more aggressive overall, and much more aggressive in Weeks 12-18 when compared to Wilson.  In that span, Lawrence's IAY/attempt was 7.7, and his poor throw % was 15.4 %.  Wilson's IAY/attempt was 6.6, with a bad throw % of 20.3.

Who was he supposed to throw it deep to? Dj Montgomery and Jeff smith? 

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

No, I just want to make you do more work, 80.

I folded in IAY/attempt into the data above.  I also did a comparison between Lawrence and Wilson using only the Week 12-18 numbers of each.

I'll be interested to get your thoughts when adding those in.  

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Being risk averse and avoiding poor throws aren't the same thing and such a claim isn't at all backed up by this chart.

Joe Burrow slings it all the time. He's not risk averse but he's #1 on this list.

Tyrod Taylor is one of the most conservative game managers on this list and he's at the bottom.

Aaron Rodgers is surgical, he rarely ever puts the ball at risk and he's 20.

Right because Joe Burrow is awesome and Tyrod Taylor sucks.  I'm not sure what you're trying to prove with these 2 QB's.  

Rodgers is the interesting one, because is IAY/attempt wasn't great, and his Poor Ball % was middle of the pack.  Same with Mahomes.  We know Mahomes didn't have a great year, but did Rodgers not have as great a year as we thought, or can we just throw out all the data as useless based on his #'s?  He did just have a 37/4 TD:INT ratio season, so at first glance, it's silly to even suggest his season wasn't that great.

[Smashmouth]

4 hours ago, oatmeal said:

So let’s ignore how he fixed this issue down the stretch though… 

not sure what you're watching

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, oatmeal said:

So let’s ignore how he fixed this issue down the stretch though… 

Improvement is not the same as "fixing".  

But yes, his improvement was indeed encouraging.  Especially the Bucs game.

[Smashmouth]

4 hours ago, Pac said:

I've just completed a comprehensive analysis of 80's post and have deduced:

- 80 is wrong 94.8% of the time

- 80 is embarrassingly wrong 86.4% of the time

- 80 is a putz 100% of the time

Leave 80 alone !

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

This is a pile of subjective bull sh*t.  Who comes up with this?  It means nothing.  Who decides what a poor throw is?  

[Darnold's Forehead]

1 hour ago, Hal N of Provo said:

“You should be ashamed for posting opinions without facts - makes me SICK!,”

<proceeds to post opinions without facts>
 

Strong work!

 

If you think Zach being overall bad this year is an opinion then no one can help you at this point.

Unlike some Zach extremists around here I am willing to acknowledge positives and negatives but the net this year has been negative.

Sorry (lol)

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

Who was he supposed to throw it deep to? Dj Montgomery and Jeff smith? 

I'm not saying its bad that he didn't throw deep.  I'm saying its bad that he was ultra-conservative (by league standards) AND was still pretty inaccurate.  If you're going to be one of the more conservative QB's in the league over a 7-game period, you would hope he'd have cut down on the bad throws.  He did, but not by a whole lot.  So he was something like # 31 in the league in intended air yards per attempt, AND was about # 30 in the league in accurate throws.  That seems....bad. 

Jimmy Garoppolo was # 22 in intended air yards per attempt, which is really conservative and boring.  But he was also top 5 at avoiding "poor throws", based on this metric.  So at least you know what you're getting out of Jimmy G; a pretty good game manager.  

With Wilson, he went from going balls the wall with deep throws the first half of his season AND being wildly inaccurate to being super conservative (based on coaching adjustments) and still really inaccurate.  And since the stat is intended to "cancel out" the WEPPINZ variable, you can't really blame all of that on his supporting cast.  

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

This is a pile of subjective bull sh*t.  Who comes up with this?  It means nothing.  Who decides what a poor throw is?  

Per Pro-Football-Reference:

• Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort
• On-Target Throws*: By QBs - throws that would have hit the intended receiving target

 

Obviously not a perfect metric by any means and it undoubtedly has subjective error.  But you would have to assume this error impacts every QB pretty equally. 

A metric like this isn't exactly going to be biased against Zach Wilson and has no reason to be.  With enough sample size, which each of these QB's provided, a lot of that subjective error gets washed out.

[Out of Bounce]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Eyes lie.  Stats really don’t when used correctly.  

Using numbers doesn't do away with perspective.  

• Biases/values influence how specific phenomena are chosen over others to quantify.
• Biases/values influence how ambiguous phenomena are broken down into discrete units.
• Biases/values influence how the numbers are interpreted. The data never speaks for itself.

I don't see why people arbitrarily choose either "stats" or the "eye test." There's a place for both quantitative and qualitative analysis depending on the question.

[BurntDice]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm not saying its bad that he didn't throw deep.  I'm saying its bad that he was ultra-conservative (by league standards) AND was still pretty inaccurate.  If you're going to be one of the more conservative QB's in the league over a 7-game period, you would hope he'd have cut down on the bad throws.  He did, but not by a whole lot.  So he was something like # 31 in the league in intended air yards per attempt, AND was about # 30 in the league in accurate throws.  That seems....bad. 

Jimmy Garoppolo was # 22 in intended air yards per attempt, which is really conservative and boring.  But he was also top 5 at avoiding "poor throws", based on this metric.  So at least you know what you're getting out of Jimmy G; a pretty good game manager.  

With Wilson, he went from going balls the wall with deep throws the first half of his season AND being wildly inaccurate to being super conservative (based on coaching adjustments) and still really inaccurate.  And since the stat is intended to "cancel out" the WEPPINZ variable, you can't really blame all of that on his supporting cast.  

There’s also variables to things. Guys like jimmy g have much better wrs and TEs to cover up his mistakes. They get open at a better rate and catch more inaccurate balls. Does this poor throw % count poor throws that were caught? If so guys like kittle and deebo are much more likely to catch those types of throws. If they are caught do they not count as poor throws?

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Per Pro-Football-Reference:

• Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort
• On-Target Throws*: By QBs - throws that would have hit the intended receiving target

 

Obviously not a perfect metric by any means and it undoubtedly has subjective error.  But you would have to assume this error impacts every QB pretty equally. 

A metric like this isn't exactly going to be biased against Zach Wilson and has no reason to be.  With enough sample size, which each of these QB's provided, a lot of that subjective error gets washed out.

I put as much stock in this as PFF grades for linemen.  None. Some of the best QBs in football are at the bottom of the list and there are a bunch of JAGs at the top.  I prefer that Wilson is grouped with the QBs in the bottom half than the top.  It's just a pile of statistical crap and I'm not trying to be a Wilson apologist.  Yes, Wilson had accuracy issues this season, but he also had poor talent and a ton of drops.  

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

There’s also variables to things. Guys like jimmy g have much better wrs and TEs to cover up his mistakes. They get open at a better rate and catch more inaccurate balls. Does this poor throw % count poor throws that were caught? If so guys like kittle and deebo are much more likely to catch those types of throws. If they are caught do they not count as poor throws?

As long as the QB puts the ball in a place for the receiver to catch, it doesn't matter WHO is catching it or whether they catch it or not.  That's why the metric could be helpful.  It's a metric to help account for bad receivers and isolates the QB's performance.

Now obviously it doesn't account for receivers running wrong routes or doing the wrong thing, which can impact a poor throw.  Or the OL allowing quick pressure that helps cause the bad throw.  But that stuff gets washed out a bit with sample size.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I put as much stock in this as PFF grades for linemen.  None. Some of the best QBs in football are at the bottom of the list and there are a bunch of JAGs at the top.  I prefer that Wilson is grouped with the QBs in the bottom half than the top.  It's just a pile of statistical crap and I'm not trying to be a Wilson apologist.  Yes, Wilson had accuracy issues this season, but he also had poor talent and a ton of drops.  

I accounted for this a bit.  See below:

 

51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Below, I've added Intended Air Yards per Attempt into the equation (their NFL rank in the category is in perentheses), to see if some of the passers with higher "Poor throw %" seemingly tend to take more risks.

Poor Throw %

1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 % -- 8.1 Intended Air Yards/Attempt (# 11)
2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 % -- 7.5 (# 22)
3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 % -- 9.0 (# 4)
4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 % -- 8.0 (# 13)
5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 % -- 7.1 (# 28)
6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 % -- 7.6 (# 18)
7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 % -- 7.7 (# 16)
8. Derek Carr:  15.5 % -- 8.1 (# 10)
9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 % -- 7.5 (# 23)
10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 % -- 7.0 (# 29)
11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 % -- 7.6 (# 20)
12. Jared Goff:  16.5 % -- 6.4 (# 31)
13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 % -- N/A
14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 % -- 8.0 (# 14)
15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 % -- 8.2 (# 8 )
16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 % -- N/A
17. Josh Allen:  17.4 % -- 8.2 (# 7)
18. Davis Mills:  17.4 % -- 7.2 (# 26)
19. Mac Jones:  17.7 % -- 8.0 (# 12)
20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 % -- 7.7 (# 17)
21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 % -- 6.7 (# 30)
22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 % -- 7.2 (# 27)
23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 % -- 7.3 (# 25)
24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 % -- 8.5 (# 6)
25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 % -- 9.9 (# 1)
26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 % -- 7.3 (# 24)
27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 % -- 7.6 (# 19)
28. Tom Brady:  19.0 % -- 8.1 (# 9)
29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 % -- 9.3 (# 3)
30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %  -- 6.6 (would rank # 31) 
31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 % -- 7.9 (# 15)
32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 % -- 8.6 (# 5)
33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 % -- N/A
34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %  -- 9.8 (# 2)
35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 % -- N/A
36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 % -- 7.6 (# 21)
37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 % -- 8.7 (would rank # 5)

 

As you can see, Garoppolo, Tannehill, Tua, Heinicke, Goff, and Davis Mills, who all ranked # 20 or lower in IAY/attempt but were in the top 20 in best "Poor Throw %", seemingly had their Poor throw % inflated based on conservative throwing.  

More surprising, of course, is the placement of Rodgers and Mahomes despite being relatively conservative.  

Pertaining to Wilson, he had an enormous drop in IAY/attempt from Week 1-7 to Week 12-18.  He ranked near the top in the NFL in Air Yard attempts per throw.  He dropped towards the bottom of the league in air yards per throw in Weeks 12-18.  Thus, he ended up finishing outside of the top 20 overall in IAY/attempt.  

His fellow rookies Fields, Lawrence, and Mac Jones all pushed the ball downfield more during their rookie seasons, each finishing within the top 15 in that category.  Davis Mills was a lot more conservative but at the same time, is poor throw % fell more in line with the league average.

 

42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Brady ranked 9th in the NFL in Intended Air Yards per Attempt.  Lamar Jackson was 3rd.  Lawrence was 15th.  Wilson was 21st, and in Weeks 12-18, he was near the bottom of the NFL.

Thus, we can glean from this that Brady and Jackson were far more aggressive than Wilson yet still threw for a better "poor ball %". 

Lawrence was a bit more aggressive overall, and a good bit more aggressive in Weeks 12-18 when compared to Wilson.  In that span, Lawrence's IAY/attempt was 7.7, and his poor throw % was 15.4 %.  Wilson's IAY/attempt was 6.6, with a bad throw % of 20.3.  Lawrence's IAY/attempt when extrapolated to a full year would be middle of the pack.  Wilson's would be at or near the bottom of the league.  

 

[HighPitch]

Can someone else with perhaps too much free time on their hands  do some research and find even more stats that suggest that zach stinks?

cherry pick away fellas

The more the merrier. They are so uplifting

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Darnold&#x27;s Forehead said:

This thread is pathetic and anyone who posted an opinionated response without backing up said opinion with facts should be embarrassed.  This place is so partisan regarding Zach and certain players out of college every year that it makes me sick.

Zach had a TERRIBLE year.  Anyone trying to argue this because of weapinz or being a rookie is delusional.  However, he improved.  He should get one more year.  If he proves that improvement was a fluke (aka Darnold) and it’s time to move on or bench him.

Where are all the facts backing up these opinions?

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Can someone else with perhaps too much free time on their hands  do some research and find even more stats that suggest that zach stinks?

cherry pick away fellas

The more the merrier. They are so uplifting

If you want polyanna takes, go to Jets twitter.

If bad news is too much reality for you, there are other threads for that with good news only.  

Or, perhaps you can create a thread of your very own complete with reasons for optimism?

Threads like these are going to exist whether you like it or not.  Wilson can do something about it by making significant strides in year 2.  In the meantime you can do something about it by ignoring them or providing content of your own.  

[Peace Frog]

1 minute ago, HighPitch said:

Can someone else with perhaps too much free time on their hands  do some research and find even more stats that suggest that zach stinks?

cherry pick away fellas

The more the merrier. They are so uplifting

The amount of time these dudes are wasting trying to convince folks to change there mind is truly splendiferous. 

[Hal N of Provo]

31 minutes ago, Darnold&#x27;s Forehead said:

If you think Zach being overall bad this year is an opinion then no one can help you at this point.

Unlike some Zach extremists around here I am willing to acknowledge positives and negatives but the net this year has been negative.

Sorry (lol)

Your opinions are facts.  Interesting 

[Dunnie]

15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Much has been made of Wilson's weapons, or lack thereof, when analyzing his improved play over Weeks 12-18 compared to Weeks 1-7.  So, piggybacking off of @Warfish's thread, I felt this deserved one of its own.  

Here's a fairly good metric that isolates out the WR aspect of the equation:  Poor throws and poor throw %.

According to pro-football-reference, Wilson had 87 total "Poor Throws" on the season on 383 attempts, or 23.8 % of his throws:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/gamelog/2021/advanced/

In Weeks 1-7, he had 46 bad throws on 181 attempts, or 25.4 %.

In Weeks 12-18, he had 41 bad throws on 202 attempts, or 20.3 %.

So he did improve in this category.  But where do those numbers compare to the rest of the league?  Unfortunately, the site doesn't provide the rankings, so I had to look up all the QB's in the league with 6+ starts this season to find this information.  These are the rankings:

NOTE:  I also folded in "Intended Air Yards/Attempt" to the data below to see if we can determine which QB's tend to take more risks than others.

1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 % -- 8.1 Intended Air Yards/Attempt (# 11)
2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 % -- 7.5 (# 22)
3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 % -- 9.0 (# 4)
4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 % -- 8.0 (# 13)
5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 % -- 7.1 (# 28)
6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 % -- 7.6 (# 18)
7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 % -- 7.7 (# 16)
8. Derek Carr:  15.5 % -- 8.1 (# 10)
9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 % -- 7.5 (# 23)
10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 % -- 7.0 (# 29)
11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 % -- 7.6 (# 20)
12. Jared Goff:  16.5 % -- 6.4 (# 31)
13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 % -- N/A
14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 % -- 8.0 (# 14)
15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 % -- 8.2 (# 8 )
16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 % -- N/A
17. Josh Allen:  17.4 % -- 8.2 (# 7)
18. Davis Mills:  17.4 % -- 7.2 (# 26)
19. Mac Jones:  17.7 % -- 8.0 (# 12)
20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 % -- 7.7 (# 17)
21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 % -- 6.7 (# 30)
22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 % -- 7.2 (# 27)
23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 % -- 7.3 (# 25)
24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 % -- 8.5 (# 6)
25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 % -- 9.9 (# 1)
26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 % -- 7.3 (# 24)
27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 % -- 7.6 (# 19)
28. Tom Brady:  19.0 % -- 8.1 (# 9)
29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 % -- 9.3 (# 3)
30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %  -- 6.6 (would rank # 31) 
31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 % -- 7.9 (# 15)
32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 % -- 8.6 (# 5)
33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 % -- N/A
34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %  -- 9.8 (# 2)
35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 % -- N/A
36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 % -- 7.6 (# 21)
37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 % -- 8.7 (would rank # 5)

 

Certainly, some will look at the above list and notice some pretty bad QB's towards the top of the list, and some better ones towards the bottom.  Obviously, this metric is influenced by how risk-averse a QB is.  The more risks a QB takes, the higher % of "poor throws" there will be.  Some really good QB's tend to take a lot of risks.  

But does that argument help or hurt Wilson?  After all, he was instructed to take less chances in the 2nd half of his rookie season, and his INT's went down.  But his poor throw % from Weeks 12-18, if extrapolated to a full season, still would have ranked him near the bottom of the league.  

 

so he was the best rookie (not named mac jones) this year. thanks for this. Plus I can appreciate how closely ranked to Tom Brady, Pat Maholmes and Aaron Rodgers he is.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Dunnie

[Scott Dierking]

9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Below, I've added Intended Air Yards per Attempt into the equation (their NFL rank in the category is in perentheses), to see if some of the passers with higher "Poor throw %" seemingly tend to take more risks.

Poor Throw %

1. Joe Burrow:  10.7 % -- 8.1 Intended Air Yards/Attempt (# 11)
2. Jimmy Garoppolo:  12.9 % -- 7.5 (# 22)
3. Jalen Hurts:  14.0 % -- 9.0 (# 4)
4. Kyler Murray:  14.1 % -- 8.0 (# 13)
5. Matt Ryan:  14.5 % -- 7.1 (# 28)
6. Justin Herbert:  14.6 % -- 7.6 (# 18)
7. Dak Prescott:  14.7 % -- 7.7 (# 16)
8. Derek Carr:  15.5 % -- 8.1 (# 10)
9. Ryan Tannehill:  15.9 % -- 7.5 (# 23)
10. Tua Tagovailoa:  16.3 % -- 7.0 (# 29)
11. Taylor Heinicke:  16.4 % -- 7.6 (# 20)
12. Jared Goff:  16.5 % -- 6.4 (# 31)
13. Jacoby Brissett:  16.5 % -- N/A
14. Teddy Bridgewater:  16.7 % -- 8.0 (# 14)
15. Kirk Cousins:  17.1 % -- 8.2 (# 8 )
16. Andy Dalton:  17.2 % -- N/A
17. Josh Allen:  17.4 % -- 8.2 (# 7)
18. Davis Mills:  17.4 % -- 7.2 (# 26)
19. Mac Jones:  17.7 % -- 8.0 (# 12)
20. Aaron Rodgers:  18.2 % -- 7.7 (# 17)
21. Ben Roethlisberger:  18.4 % -- 6.7 (# 30)
22. Daniel Jones:  18.4 % -- 7.2 (# 27)
23. Sam Darnold:  18.5 % -- 7.3 (# 25)
24. Matthew Stafford:  18.6 % -- 8.5 (# 6)
25. Russell Wilson:  18.6 % -- 9.9 (# 1)
26. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 % -- 7.3 (# 24)
27. Carson Wentz:  18.8 % -- 7.6 (# 19)
28. Tom Brady:  19.0 % -- 8.1 (# 9)
29. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 % -- 9.3 (# 3)
30. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %  -- 6.6 (would rank # 31) 
31. Trevor Lawrence:  20.5 % -- 7.9 (# 15)
32. Baker Mayfield:  20.9 % -- 8.6 (# 5)
33. Jameis Winston:  21.7 % -- N/A
34. Justin Fields:  21.9 %  -- 9.8 (# 2)
35. Tyrod Taylor:  22.1 % -- N/A
36. Zach Wilson (overall):  23.8 % -- 7.6 (# 21)
37. Zach Wilson (Weeks 1-7 only):  25.4 % -- 8.7 (would rank # 5)

 

As you can see, Garoppolo, Tannehill, Tua, Heinicke, Goff, and Davis Mills, who all ranked # 20 or lower in IAY/attempt but were in the top 20 in best "Poor Throw %", seemingly had their Poor throw % inflated based on conservative throwing.  

More surprising, of course, is the placement of Rodgers and Mahomes despite being relatively conservative.  

Pertaining to Wilson, he had an enormous drop in IAY/attempt from Week 1-7 to Week 12-18.  He ranked near the top in the NFL in Air Yard attempts per throw.  He dropped towards the bottom of the league in air yards per throw in Weeks 12-18.  Thus, he ended up finishing outside of the top 20 overall in IAY/attempt.  

His fellow rookies Fields, Lawrence, and Mac Jones all pushed the ball downfield more during their rookie seasons, each finishing within the top 15 in that category.  Davis Mills was a lot more conservative but at the same time, is poor throw % fell more in line with the league average.

See now this is something that I can glom onto to make a decisive opinion on stats related to quarterbacks.

 14 teams made the playoffs. Of that top 14 qb's on this list 8 of their teams made the playoffs.

It is almost a coin flip to make the playoffs and be rated high in this stat.

Conclusion- we have been focusing on the wrong position. Now do punters.

 

[Scott Dierking]

14 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Eyes lie.  Stats really don’t when used correctly.  

I just made up this little ditty for you (well sort of)

Stats are simple and stats are straight.
Stats are lazy and stats are late.
Stats all come with points of view.
Stats don't do what I want them to.
Stats just twist the truth around.
Stats are living turned inside out.

[Biggs]

Why not look at productivity?

Zach Wilson Yards per catch is about middle of the pack at 11.   All that means is when he actually completes a pass he's moving the team 11 yards down the field which is right about average for an NFL QB to move the team down the field on a completion.  However when you get to attempts he drops down to the bottom with Trevor Lawrence at 6.1 yards per attempt.  That means on every pass attempt he is one of the least productive QB's in the league.  Interestingly Jimmy Garapollo is the second most efficient QB in Y/A right behind Joe Borrow.   The top group includes the usual suspects other than Garapollo. R. Wilson, Stafford, Rodgers and Murray.  With Carr, Cousins, Jackson and Herbert rounding out the top 10.  The top 15 include Brady, Mahomes, Jones, Prescott and Hurst.  Surprisingly Allen is pretty pedestrian at 23rd because he's actual completion percentage dropped significantly from last year and is in the bottom 3rd of the league this year.  

If you go back to the Jets SB season, 1968.   Namath completed 49.2% of his passes.  His Yards per attempt was 8.3.   Horrible completion percentage but even by today's standard he was efficient throwing the ball because on his throws he was moving the team down the field at a high rate even by today's standards where guys are completing 65 to 70% of their passes.  The reason is his completions averaged 16.8 yards per completion.   Yea he threw a ton of bad passes.  He also threw a ton of great passes. 

Zach didn't complete a lot of passes and he was rather pedestrian in his good throws.  None of that means he's going to be a terrible or great QB at some point.  It's obvious he has talent, he wasn't ready to start and he was either under coached or over coached to compensate at different points of the season. 

[Gastineau Lives]

11 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Remember those two games when Bryce Young played Georgia… 

In the first game he had his top weapons and went: 26/44 (.59), 421 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT  
Jameson Williams: 7 rec., 184 yds, 2 TDs. 
John Metchie: 6 rec., 97 yds, 1 TDs

In the championship game he didn’t have Metchie and lost JW early in the 2nd QTR (12:34 remaining); he finished: 35/57 (.61), 369 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT  

10/15 before losing JW (.66)   
25/42 after losing JW (.59)
 

WEAPONZ  MATTER

My question is when do weapons start to matter.

Surround the qb with third fourth and seventh string NFL guys 

Surround the qb with very division 2 guys

Juco?

High schoolers?

Jv high schoolers 

Junior high schoolers?

At SOME point it makes a difference no?