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"Poor Throw %" and how it relates to Zach Wilson vs. the rest of the league


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1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

My question is when do weapons start to matter.

Surround the qb with third fourth and seventh string NFL guys 

Surround the qb with very division 2 guys

Juco?

High schoolers?

Jv high schoolers 

Junior high schoolers?

At SOME point it makes a difference no?

Of course it makes a difference and @AFJF gave us the best response to people who are full of ish and pretend it doesn't. If you were about to bet on a team and found out a bunch of their starters were a late scratch, would you still bet them? IE: You're about to put a large bet the Bengals -4.5 vs Raiders and find out Chase, Higgins & Boyd are out w/covid, are you still betting the Bengals?

OF COURSE YOU AREN'T.

 

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Stats are useful evaluative tools, but they should never supplant what you see. I personally cannot wait to see the QB Zach Wilson becomes. Aside from not being 6'4" he checks every box you want for a QB. Physically, he has a quick release, strong arm; and is athletic as hell.  Is there any QB other than Lamar Jackson who is as difficult to lay a hand on? He's smart, works hard, stays out of trouble, thirsts for knowledge and has a burning desire to be great. Comparing his first half to his second half it does seem that the Coaching staff had it right when the blamed his short pass accuracy problems on timing and footwork. Frankly, it is a testament to his willingness to put in the work and learn that he actually fixed his accuracy issue during the season. 

Now, the Jets just need to support him by finishing their creation of a dominant O line and getting him a true #1 WR. I expect JD to spend a first round pick on O line this year and a first or second in upcoming drafts until the line is completed. I would also love to see the Jets make Allen Robinson an offer he cannot refuse. The guy can go anywhere and I'm sure he wants to win. Saleh needs to convince him that he can win with the Jets.

Finally, I would love it if the Jets asked Chad Pennington to work with Zach for one week on his ball fakes. Chad was a master at it. 

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18 hours ago, The Engineer said:

about as useful as an as*hole on an elbow

One of the funniest things I’ve ever read on a forum. I laughed out loud on my flight, people looked at me, and then I spent the next 5 minutes thinking about it anatomically and in terms of usefulness. Thanks for making my flight better!

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Even post injury Zach Wilson was making poor throws and was not a good QB.  

I don’t think it is worth debating whether how good Zach is going to be.   He needs to play much, much better next year.   Much of that will depend on how much support he gets. 

If the Zach and the offense as a whole does not look much better next year, the Jets will be thinking long and hard about whether JD gets another shot to build it. 

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Taking the entire season into account, Zach Wilson was bad.

Splitting the season into pre and post injury, he was marginally better after his return.  The biggest improvement was cutting back on INTs, but perhaps the game plans and playcalling were much more conservative.

It also seemed to me that, after his return, his short range throws were really bad at first, but then got much better the last 3-4 games.  Of course, the more you cut up anyone's stats, the more "small sample bias" comes into play.

Will he be better next year? I have no idea....I'd guess that his ability to read defenses and make good, quick decisions will be the decisive factor, rather than what any "accuracy" stats claim.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

My question is when do weapons start to matter.

Surround the qb with third fourth and seventh string NFL guys 

Surround the qb with very division 2 guys

Juco?

High schoolers?

Jv high schoolers 

Junior high schoolers?

At SOME point it makes a difference no?

Probably elementary school, when the players run sh*t routes, can’t get separation, and drop balls left-and-right.  You know, like the Jets’ B-squad. 

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12 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If you want polyanna takes, go to Jets twitter.

If bad news is too much reality for you, there are other threads for that with good news only.  

Or, perhaps you can create a thread of your very own complete with reasons for optimism?

Threads like these are going to exist whether you like it or not.  Wilson can do something about it by making significant strides in year 2.  In the meantime you can do something about it by ignoring them or providing content of your own.  

I just voiced my opinion like you just have. You think zach is a bust, thats fine. Im not going to dig for stats to prove what i believe in order to convince you because my hedges need to be cut and my wife wants some anal play

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Lets turn this around.

New headline: ZACH WILSON POOR THROW % SIMILAR TO (THE GOAT) TOM BRADY AND MAHOMES!!!!!WOW!!!

  1. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 % -- 7.3 (# 24)
  2. Carson Wentz:  18.8 % -- 7.6 (# 19)
  3. Tom Brady:  19.0 % -- 8.1 (# 9)
  4. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 % -- 9.3 (# 3)
  5. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %  -- 6.6 (would rank # 31) 
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My two cents on the subject (which is probably not worth even that)

For those that beleive that Zach improved from the first half ot the season.  I agree.  Notwithstanding the last game in Buffalo, Zach looked more competent, avoided major mistakes and just looked more comfortable in the offense.

For those that were disappointed with Zach's rookie year, I agree.  I was reallly hoping that with the second pick we would draft someone who, after one season, you just know, he is the guy. 

He is so polarizing among the fan base, because his play this season gives ammunition from both sides of the argument.  I am not calling him a bust, but I am not calling him a good NFL QB either. 

Once again, we enter an offseason where we still don't know what we have in our QB.  I sure hope he proves he is the guy next season, but I am not there yet.  He needs to take a major step in 2022.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Lith said:

He is so polarizing among the fan base, because his play this season gives ammunition from both sides of the argument.  I am not calling him a bust, but I am not calling him a good NFL QB either. 

Once again, we enter an offseason where we still don't know what we have in our QB.  I sure hope he proves he is the guy next season, but I am not there yet.  He needs to take a major step in 2022.

 

 

 

I think this is perfectly said. 

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18 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

I found another fun chart/stat/whatever the f you want to call it:

Shows which QBs have the most support around them. Zach, obviously, low on the support list. 

 

What's interesting to me about this is that while Wilson is unsurprisingly low on this list, I'd bet if you asked people where they thought he'd be ranked, he's actually much higher than what I'd imagine they'd guess.

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22 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

I just voiced my opinion like you just have. You think zach is a bust, thats fine. Im not going to dig for stats to prove what i believe in order to convince you because my hedges need to be cut and my wife wants some anal play

Is that a metaphor for manscaping? Or do your bushes truly need pruning? 

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14 minutes ago, Lith said:

He is so polarizing among the fan base, because his play this season gives ammunition from both sides of the argument.  I am not calling him a bust, but I am not calling him a good NFL QB either. 

Agreed, but I think most of the "bust" side are already labelling him a bust and ready to move on (or didn't want to draft him in the first place and have not nor will not change their opinion), but I think most of the the Pro-Zach side is not calling him a "good NFL QB" yet.  

I think the Pro-Zach side realizes he was awful to start and not really very good (other than in very limited circumstances) but see a path to him BECOMING a good NFL QB.  

That's the difference between the factions IMHO.

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3 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

My question is when do weapons start to matter.

Surround the qb with third fourth and seventh string NFL guys 

Surround the qb with very division 2 guys

Juco?

High schoolers?

Jv high schoolers 

Junior high schoolers?

At SOME point it makes a difference no?

 

It makes a difference, certainly.  And I adjust my expectations for a QB accordingly.  No one was asking for 300-yard games with the likes of Jeff Smith out there.  But you can still ask for competence out of your QB even with little quality at his fingertips. 

It can't be leaned on as a crutch.  Sam Darnold didn't have quality weapons for 3 years here.  It didn't mean he was secretly good.  He was handed a great situation in Carolina and failed miserably.  Geno Smith had similarly bad weppinz here.  Didn't make him a future stud.  Mark Sanchez was handed tremendous personnel in 2009-10, but was still a terrible QB even in those years.

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3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Of course it makes a difference and @AFJF gave us the best response to people who are full of ish and pretend it doesn't. If you were about to bet on a team and found out a bunch of their starters were a late scratch, would you still bet them? IE: You're about to put a large bet the Bengals -4.5 vs Raiders and find out Chase, Higgins & Boyd are out w/covid, are you still betting the Bengals?

OF COURSE YOU AREN'T.

Yes, of course you're right about that.  But I'm still expecting Joe Burrow to have a fairly solid day anyways.  I'm not expecting a 300+ yard, 3 TD day.  But I'm also not expecting him to throw for 105 yards and then have to try to tell myself I should be thrilled about that if I'm a Bengals fan.  

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13 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Agreed, but I think most of the "bust" side are already labelling him a bust and ready to move on (or didn't want to draft him in the first place and have not nor will not change their opinion), but I think most of the the Pro-Zach side is not calling him a "good NFL QB" yet.  

I think the Pro-Zach side realizes he was awful to start and not really very good (other than in very limited circumstances) but see a path to him BECOMING a good NFL QB.  

That's the difference between the factions IMHO.

I see it in both sides of the argument.  Not going to get into a debate about or call out individual posters (don't want to have to ban myself). 

Most posters have reasonable takes on both sides of the argument -- but there are exceptions. On both sides, imo.

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41 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Lets turn this around.

New headline: ZACH WILSON POOR THROW % SIMILAR TO (THE GOAT) TOM BRADY AND MAHOMES!!!!!WOW!!!

  1. Pat Mahomes:  18.8 % -- 7.3 (# 24)
  2. Carson Wentz:  18.8 % -- 7.6 (# 19)
  3. Tom Brady:  19.0 % -- 8.1 (# 9)
  4. Lamar Jackson:  19.7 % -- 9.3 (# 3)
  5. Zach Wilson (Weeks 12-18 only):  20.3 %  -- 6.6 (would rank # 31) 

You missed the part you just quoted above where Brady was top 10 in the NFL in deep ball attempts on a per throw basis.  Wilson ended up outside of the top 20, and in Weeks 12-18, he was near the bottom of the league in that category.

Mahomes did suck for much of this year, and it was weird.  Time will tell if that was an anomaly for him or not.

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3 minutes ago, Lith said:

I see it in both sides of the argument.  Not going to get into a debate about or call out individual posters (don't want to have to ban myself). 

Most posters have reasonable takes on both sides of the argument -- but there are exceptions. On both sides, imo.

That's fair but I think one side is being slightly more reasonable than the other.  All good though.  

Btw, congrats again on the NCAA Championship!

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7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes, of course you're right about that.  But I'm still expecting Joe Burrow to have a fairly solid day anyways.  I'm not expecting a 300+ yard, 3 TD day.  But I'm also not expecting him to throw for 105 yards and then have to try to tell myself I should be thrilled about that if I'm a Bengals fan.  

Joe Burrow looked great as a rookie and still had a handful of ~200 yard games. That's not the point though. The point is simply that weapons obviously have an impact on QB performance. A lot of people on here literally mock the idea that weapons matter. They do.

 

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5 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

That's fair but I think one side is being slightly more reasonable than the other.  All good though.  

Btw, congrats again on the NCAA Championship!

Thanks.  I have not come down off the high from the Championship yet.  Still trying to figure out what game I want to go to back on campus next season.  Been too long since I have been in Athens.

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4 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

I just made up this little ditty for you (well sort of)

Stats are simple and stats are straight.
Stats are lazy and stats are late.
Stats all come with points of view.
Stats don't do what I want them to.
Stats just twist the truth around.
Stats are living turned inside out.

 

I can't imagine living in a world where stats are dismissed simply because they can be manipulated.  Without stats, we don't have clean drinking water and a much improved quality of life compared to our ancestors.  

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21 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Joe Burrow looked great as a rookie and still had a handful of ~200 yard games. That's not the point though. The point is simply that weapons obviously have an impact on QB performance. A lot of people on here literally mock the idea that weapons matter. They do.

 

Joe Burrow also was recruited and went to Ohio State and then transferred to LSU--two of the top programs in all of NCAA football.

Like Mac Jones, he was much more "pro ready" coming out of college.

Zach went to BYU and played much lesser competition (whihc has been repeated and admitted to ad nauseum).  Everyone recognized he had a learning curve, much steeper than guys from the Big 10 or the SEC.

It's what the FO projected what they THOUGHT he could become with a bit of seasoning.  They likely saw a higher upside than Fields because even though Fields was an OSU guy, with the choice, they STILL took Zach.

 

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5 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Joe Burrow also was recruited and went to Ohio State and then transferred to LSU--two of the top programs in all of NCAA football.

Like Mac Jones, he was much more "pro ready" coming out of college.

Zach went to BYU and played much lesser competition (whihc has been repeated and admitted to ad nauseum).  Everyone recognized he had a learning curve, much steeper than guys from the Big 10 or the SEC.

It's what the FO projected what they THOUGHT he could become with a bit of seasoning.  They likely saw a higher upside than Fields because even though Fields was an OSU guy, with the choice, they STILL took Zach.

 

So you're saying weapons matter?

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31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I can't imagine living in a world where stats are dismissed simply because they can be manipulated.  Without stats, we don't have clean drinking water and a much improved quality of life compared to our ancestors.  

Wow, so the posting stats that reiterates Wilson didn't have a good rookie season (definitely not in terms of his numbers) - a sentiment with which 99% already agree anyhow - is saving our very lives! A rookie QBs' stats over about a dozen games are preventing my family from drinking poison!

Thanks on behalf of all of us in society. :) 

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Joe Burrow looked great as a rookie and still had a handful of ~200 yard games. That's not the point though. The point is simply that weapons obviously have an impact on QB performance. A lot of people on here literally mock the idea that weapons matter. They do.

 

Fair.  I’m not one of those who mock the idea, but I’ve seen enough bad QBs with bad Weppinz for this franchise to know young QBs aren’t secretly good purely because their Weppinz are bad. 

Meanwhile, unlike Jets QBs that came before him, Wilson really did have an NFL caliber of weaponry earlier in his rookie season.  

It didn’t last but for about half his games this season Wilson had a better supporting cast and coaching than Darnold or Geno ever had.

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51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Fair.  I’m not one of those who mock the idea, but I’ve seen enough bad QBs with bad Weppinz for this franchise to know young QBs aren’t secretly good purely because their Weppinz are bad. 

Meanwhile, unlike Jets QBs that came before him, Wilson really did have an NFL caliber of weaponry earlier in his rookie season.  

It didn’t last but for about half his games this season Wilson had a better supporting cast and coaching than Darnold or Geno ever had.

Fair. I do think QB development is enhanced by having good weapons and blocking though.

 

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22 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

So this will be the daily drill going forward with the “Tell Me You Think Zach Wilson Sucks Without Saying Zach Wilson Sucks” thread. 

Couched in the “I felt this Zach Wilson sucks thread deserved it’s own Zach Wilson sucks thread because it would get buried in the other Zach Wilson sucks threads”.  

Cannot wait for next September. 

Okay. Time to start a new Adams thread.

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4 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Fair. I do think QB development is enhanced by having good weapons and blocking though.

 

And I would never disagree with that.  A terrific supporting cast and coaching staff can help take an average or good QB and make him look elite or a notch below elite.  Just look at Alex Smith in KC under Reid and co.

But then you remember that Andy Reid also dumped Alex Smith even after he'd just had a career year, and realize that even the best circumstances can only take a QB so far.  

And in addition, the above doesn't really apply to BAD quarterbacks.  No amount of coaching and weppinz can fix suck.  It can only really assist a QB who is already at least decent.  Bad QB's with great coaches and receivers still find new and creative ways to turn the ball over, take a bunch of sacks, and/or miss wide open receivers.

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4 hours ago, Dcat said:

Okay. Time to start a new Adams thread.

Adams is so bad and hurt so often it's almost boring to talk about him at this point.  Only maybe 2-3 posters on all of JN still think Adams can still end up being a HOF or high impact Safety.  

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Yes.  He sucks.  

Well he's also top 3 in passes dropped, so not only did he throw a lot of poor throws (Which is a stat I don't understand due to it's crazy spread of good players across the chart), but his receivers made him look even worse.

Looks like it's a mix of both lack of talent as well as him sucking.

I personally think that as a rookie it's difficult to learn how to change your gameplay going into the NFL when you don't have much help around you. Sure, a good NFL QB is going to prove they're good even if they don't have weapons, but when they're trying to learn the gameplay and how to do things. When they have talent around them to help bail them out when they make those inevitable mistakes, it helps teach them what to do differently. But if a badly thrown pass and a good pass that was dropped look the same, there's no positive feedback loop, and thus the QB can't improve as quickly.

Yes, there are counterexamples, but those are to the extreme. Wilson threw a lot of poor throws, but that was expected of him. He was the rookie and most of the pass-catchers were not.

So upon full evaluation, it seems like both Wilson and his pass-catchers sucked, and it just snowballed. Hopefully next year there will be better receivers and Wilson will also be much improved. 

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9 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Agreed, but I think most of the "bust" side are already labelling him a bust and ready to move on (or didn't want to draft him in the first place and have not nor will not change their opinion), but I think most of the the Pro-Zach side is not calling him a "good NFL QB" yet.  

I think the Pro-Zach side realizes he was awful to start and not really very good (other than in very limited circumstances) but see a path to him BECOMING a good NFL QB.  

That's the difference between the factions IMHO.

I wanted to trade down before the draft and still think that was the right way to build a winner.

I have stated that ZW had a terrible rookie year, so far below what was to be expected from the #2 OA. Yes he's a rookie, but he looked lost and like he didn't belong on the field.

But - I have never said that ZW is a bust. My position is that next year Zach better come out hot and show us something. I don't want to see the 'hide Zach offense" designed to minimize INT's and bad plays. If Zach sucks next year then it's time to start looking to replace him.

The decision was made and Zach is our guy. I truly hope he turns into a 10 year FQB for the Jets.

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