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"Poor Throw %" and how it relates to Zach Wilson vs. the rest of the league


Jetsfan80
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I addressed this in the post.  Brady and Rodgers take more risks, which increases their poor throw %.  
No metric is perfect, but it does seem like you want to be somewhere in that 16-19 % "sweet spot" to be happy about your performance, unless of course you're a total boss like Joe Burrow, that is.  [mention=7961]RoadFan[/mention].   
Any lower than 16 %, generally, and you're not taking enough risks or shots downfield.  Any higher than that and you're missing far too many of the easy throws. 
Given that Wilson took a lot let risks in Weeks 12-18, its a bit alarming to see his poor throw % exceeding 20 % in that span.  
I think we can all agree that the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields is NOT the kind of company we want Wilson to be in, no?  


This seems like data analysts creating stats so they can keep working. I don’t see how this is a helpful tool for evaluation. It’s fun to analyze all this stuff, but might not have the relevance some place on it.


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The best proof that wilson improved is with the eye test, not these random stats.


I agree. Statistically he wasn’t good, but I did like what I saw from a raw talent perspective. I don’t expect every rookie QB to shine when thrust into the starting lineup year one. Not sure when that expectation started to become a thing? I get the rookie salary thing and all, but I still believe that at least one year on the sidelines is best for development of any rookie QB.




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I just don't think we know enough yet about any of these rookies.
If I had to guess I'd suggest that Mac Jones isn't quite as good as he has looked and Justin Fields, Wilson, Lawrence might not be as bad as they've looked.  I mean, are we thinking that Zach, Trevor and Fields are all going to continue throwing more INTs than TDs each season as they all did in 2021?  I don't.
I don't know if we should give Zach a ton of credit for 5 straight games without an INT if the Jets are losing most of those games.  I also don't think we should give him a ton of blame for a higher incompletion % if he's forced to throw balls out of bounds when guys aren't open and he's being coached not to throw risky passes.
Stats can tell whatever story you want them to but the fact is that we just need to see more games from all these guys.  I mean, why does Zach Wilson have more yards per completion than Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, etc.?  Does that even mean anything?  What about a correlation between the success of these QBs and the number of times they were sacked.  Zach was sacked 44 times,  Trevor and Fields 30+ times each, Mac Jones 28 times.
No clue whether Zach will take the second year leap and show he's on a path to being a potential FQB or if he'll just level out and be an adequate guy that the Jets look to replace as they did with Darnold.  If I had to guess we'll know after the first 8 games next season.  If the INTs stay low but he begins to lead more scoring drives and can really leverage guys like Elijah Moore and Corey Davis then maybe we have something.  Until then... no clue.
 


I miss the days when all you needed to know about a QB’s stats were total yards, TDs, INT and Wins!


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6 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

Normal traditional stats show Zach sucks. Weird obscure stats show Zach sucks. All because Zach does in fact suck.

 

I'm not sure these are weird, obscure stats but whatever.

Zach Wilson had an NFL-high 12.7% of his passes dropped in 2021, via PFF.

At least the Jets led the league in something!

 

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1 hour ago, BloodGreen said:

 


This seems like data analysts creating stats so they can keep working. I don’t see how this is a helpful tool for evaluation. It’s fun to analyze all this stuff, but might not have the relevance some place on it.

Ok.  Well when standard stats are brought up people just make the “Weppinz” excuse.  This is an attempt to cut through that a bit.

But sure, numbers are dumb and stuff.

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14 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I'm not sure these are weird, obscure stats but whatever.

Zach Wilson had an NFL-high 12.7% of his passes dropped in 2021, via PFF.

At least the Jets led the league in something!

 

@BloodGreen is this stat useless?  Curious how consistent you’ll be on this topic.

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5 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Couldn’t find the “Poor Catch %” thread so just leaving this here…


 

 

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:


 

 

16 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I'm not sure these are weird, obscure stats but whatever.

Zach Wilson had an NFL-high 12.7% of his passes dropped in 2021, via PFF.

At least the Jets led the league in something!

 


The receivers were bad AND Zach was also bad.  Alert the presses.

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5 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Couldn’t find the “Poor Catch %” thread so just leaving this here…


 

Wouldn’t listen to these guys. Same dudes that tried litigating the case for Darnold during his first two seasons. 

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48 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I'm not sure these are weird, obscure stats but whatever.

Zach Wilson had an NFL-high 12.7% of his passes dropped in 2021, via PFF.

At least the Jets led the league in something!

 

The issue with ignoring drops is that many of these drops would have resulted in first downs, moved the chains and provided an opportunity for more positive plays and scoring drives. 

Instead they resulted mostly in 3 and outs. 

Haters going to hate. 

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Just now, Peace Frog said:

The issue with ignoring drops is that many of these drops would have resulted in first downs, moved the chains and provided an opportunity for more positive plays and scoring drives. 

Instead they resulted mostly in 3 and outs. 

Haters going to hate. 


Wilson killed plenty of drives this season on his own thanks to poor throws and decisions.  Those get casually ignored though because Weppinz.

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6 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

The issue with ignoring drops is that many of these drops would have resulted in first downs, moved the chains and provided an opportunity for more positive plays and scoring drives. 

Instead they resulted mostly in 3 and outs. 

Haters going to hate. 

 

Just sitting here eating popcorn and watching Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and CJ Uzomah run all over my TV screen catching passes. lol

 

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7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:


Wilson killed plenty of drives this season on his own thanks to poor throws and decisions.  Those get casually ignored though because Weppinz.

I don't think they're being ignored.  In fact, we have a whole thread (or eight of them) on this subject.  In fact, we're in one of them right now. lol

As you said, some bad rookie QB play with teammates who were playing pretty bad as well.

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5 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I don't think they're being ignored.  In fact, we have a whole thread (or eight of them) on this subject.  In fact, we're in one of them right now. lol

As you said, some bad rookie QB play with teammates who were playing pretty bad as well.


We have the threads, yes, but roughly 60 % of the posters in those threads dismiss it because numbers are gay.  (Except for the numbers that say Wilson is secretly good, of course.)

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6 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

Just sitting here eating popcorn and watching Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and CJ Uzomah run all over my TV screen catching passes. lol

 

So Black, DJ Montgomery, Jeff and Vyncynt Smyth aren’t doing it for you? 

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6 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I don't think they're being ignored.  In fact, we have a whole thread (or eight of them) on this subject.  In fact, we're in one of them right now. lol

As you said, some bad rookie QB play with teammates who were playing pretty bad as well.

I don’t think anyone is saying Zach wasn’t generally bad, just that he seemed to progress as the season and his reps increased even as his Oline and weaponz decreased. 

The fact he hung with the SB champs till the end is COMPLETELY nullified by the crap situation he was dealt against one of the best team in the league in their building as they were shooting for a second division title. 
 

Clown show. 

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20 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

So Black, DJ Montgomery, Jeff and Vyncynt Smyth aren’t doing it for you? 

GIF by Chord Overstreet
 

I feel like I’ve been trying to get behind our WR group for three years now, giving them the benefit of the doubt. This is the first year I really started to like what we have with Moore and Davis (both hurt of course). 

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6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Couldn’t find the “Poor Catch %” thread so just leaving this here…


 

So many brutal drops this year. 
 

On some huge plays down the field. 
 

More good receivers and new tight ends, please 

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[mention=28690]BloodGreen[/mention] is this stat useless?  Curious how consistent you’ll be on this topic.



I don’t necessarily think any stat is useless. All data can be used for something, I am just careful how I apply data. I think people get so wrapped up in data analysis, and ignore what they are actually seeing. What Major League Baseball has become is a perfect example of that. So I guess the answer is that it is not useful in this case, because I already knew the Jets dropped a ton of passes last season by watching the games. Whether it is worst in the league or 3rd from last is irrelevant in that it still sucks, and needs to be fixed. Now using that data to measure improvement going forward would be a nice application.


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