How many years we giving ZW to prove himself?

[TuscanyTile2]

Josh Allen didn't really flourish until his 3rd season but I feel like you generally know if a guy is going to be a star by year 2. 

Patrick Mahomes:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MahoPa00.htm

Lamar Jackson:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackLa00.htm

 

Justin Herbert:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HerbJu00.htm

 

Josh Allen:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm#all_passing

[section314]

2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Josh Allen didn't really flourish until his 3rd season but I feel like you generally know if a guy is going to be a star by year 2. 

Patrick Mahomes:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MahoPa00.htm

Lamar Jackson:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackLa00.htm

 

Justin Herbert:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HerbJu00.htm

 

Josh Allen:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm#all_passing

Allen's rookie numbers across the board, except yards passing, are almost identical to Zach's. Not that it means anything going forward, just very interesting.

[rtnelson]

It was a tough start.  The kid wasn't as ready as most of us thought and in the end when it looked like he could be putting things together the rest of the team was getting decimated by injury.

I think we'll know sometime before the half way point next year if he's going to be great.  We'll know by the end of the year if he's going to be good.  If we don't know by the end of the year either of those things it's probably not going to work out with him but barring a complete meltdown we'll probably still see another year unless everything around him is ready to seriously compete and we're just a QB away from actually competing for a SB.  But come on... what are the odds of that?

[Warfish]

Zach will get an absolute minimum of three full seasons here to "prove what he is".

I don't see any situation, outside complete ineptitude well beyond what we saw this year, where he would be benched or dumped sooner that that three year time period.

At the end of that period, Saleh will have finished year 3, JD will have finished year 5.

If we're still in as bad a place as we are now, record and competitive-wise, at that point, I would expect all three to be gone at that point in time.

[Lurker89]

 

2 with a viable replacement in the works if he ***** the bed next year.

[HessStation]

Three

[slats]

I plan to give him the rest of the offseason, at least. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

So absurd that Mahommes first season he plays, he throws 50 TDs. 
We’d all die and go to heaven. 

[Icer]

At least three years unless we land the top pick and their is a prospect out there like Kyler Murray

[Jet Nut]

50 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Josh Allen didn't really flourish until his 3rd season but I feel like you generally know if a guy is going to be a star by year 2. 

Patrick Mahomes:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MahoPa00.htm

Lamar Jackson:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackLa00.htm

 

Justin Herbert:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HerbJu00.htm

 

Josh Allen:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm#all_passing

All have one thing in common.  Either they were on playoff caliber teams or with playoff teams.  Not one with a totally gutted rebuild team.   But you should have a clue as to what you have after year two.

[Bungaman]

Three. I expect to see improvement in Zack along with the rest of the team. 

That being said, all those other QB's landed on teams that in general had better quality rosters - and it matters to have a decent defense if the offense is atrocious, and visa versa. Imbalance does not help a young QB. Everyone plays better when they don't have to worry about compensating for other less talented or underperforming teammates. 

[FidelioJet]

Assuming he's showing progress,  he'll get two more season to prove he can be a legit FQB.  -

If he shows little to no progress that timeline with shrink, but he'll get the benefit of the doubt for the next two seasons.

[KRL]

The success of CIN this year has put the entire organization on notice.  They 
had a rookie HC and a rookie QB and went 4-11-1 in 2020 and in everyone's
second year they went 10-7 and won their division.  Wilson, Saleh and Douglas
have no excuse, I don't expect us to win the AFC East but we should be challenging
for a WC spot next year  

[CanadaSteve]

I think he will get next year, and a few more 'weaponz' to prove himself.  IF there is not a significant swing upwards, he will be replaced in year three.

This is why I think we are moving down in the draft with one of our picks to arm ourselves with multiple 1st round picks:  So we can maneover, if need be, to position ourselves for another QB.  You have to have a QB in this league, or it doesn't work.  So, until you find one, you keep drafting them until you do.  Arizona was smart and dumped theirs after one season.  Worked out with their replacement.  Buffalo was smart to give Josh Allen a third season because they saw a BIG upward trend in pass attempts, yardage, completion percentage, and TD's, and a decrease in INT.'s.  IF we don't see a big upswing from Zach in year two, he shouldn't get a year three.  Just my opnion.  

[CanadaSteve]

1 minute ago, KRL said:

The success of CIN this year has put the entire organization on notice.  They 
had a rookie HC and a rookie QB and went 4-11-1 in 2020 and in everyone's
second year they went 10-7 and won their division.  Wilson, Saleh and Douglas
have no excuse, I don't expect us to win the AFC East but we should be challenging
for a WC spot next year  

Yup.  And if Zach doesn't progress, I think he's gone, and JD will get one final draft.  Get a good QB, or be gone.  It truly sucks that EVERYTHING about this league has become one player, and when you have to pay that player, you can't keep a team around him.  QB's should be outside the salary cap if they are going to put such emphasis on the one position. 

[jetstream23]

12 minutes ago, section314 said:

Allen's rookie numbers across the board, except yards passing, are almost identical to Zach's. Not that it means anything going forward, just very interesting.

I feel like you'll have a really good sense for who a QB is after he's played 2 seasons (assuming he played most of the games in each year and didn't miss significant time).

We'll be able to say whether the Zach traffic light is flashing red (bust), yellow (mediocre starter), or green (potential Top 10 NFL QB) by the end of next year, maybe even halfway thru next year.

I believe a QB's biggest growth should take place from Year 1 to Year 2, that would be where we could see the biggest jump.

Sam Darnold got a third season here and what it did was mostly confirm what we were seeing in Year 2.  We kind of knew who Sam was after two years.  The challenge with Sam IMO was that he gives you those 2 or 3 amazing throws per game that some coaches are absolutely infatuated with, and it's enough that they convince themselves they can beat all the other bad habits and shortcomings out of him.  Sam played under two different coaches across 3 seasons here with a mix of different players, but nothing really solved his biggest issue... inconsistency and being mistake prone.  This is the one thing that has given me some confidence that Zach might take the next step, he seemed to be learning by the final two months of the season how to limit his mistakes yet still move the ball fairly effectively.  Again, a second offseason with this system and the hopeful addition of another dimension to the Jets offense (either a respectable TE threat or an available/non-injured deep threat like Elijah Moore) might help Zach make that jump.  But it's really up to him.

[Sonny Werblin]

Quote

How many years we giving ZW to prove himself?

There's not some line in the sand of bright line benchmark in the timeline for developing a QB. There is only one question you need to ask and answer when he is still developing--- "Is he getting better?"

[Peace Frog]

15  

After next year we’ll be asking how soon do we extend him. 

[jetstream23]

9 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

So absurd that Mahommes first season he plays, he throws 50 TDs. 
We’d all die and go to heaven. 

 

Who needed a guy like Mahomes when there was a dawg still available on the Draft board staring Macc in the face?

 

[UntouchableCrew]

Three, unless he bombs next season really badly.

[Grandy]

3 years is the normal amount, but based on how he does next year will determine that. If he sucks bad, then I think they might pull the plug based on draft position without a 3rd try. If he's average to good, then he definitely gets the 3rd year and likely more. If he's amazing, then he's obviously here for a longgg time. 

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

All have one thing in common.  Either we’re on playoff caliber teams or with playoff teams.  Not one with a totally gutted rebuild team

Nuance is unacceptable.

[Grandy]

3 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I feel like you'll have a really good sense for who a QB is after he's played 2 seasons (assuming he played most of the games in each year and didn't miss significant time).

We'll be able to say whether the Zach traffic light is flashing red (bust), yellow (mediocre starter), or green (potential Top 10 NFL QB) by the end of next year, maybe even halfway thru next year.

I believe a QB's biggest growth should take place from Year 1 to Year 2, that would be where we could see the biggest jump.

Sam Darnold got a third season here and what it did was mostly confirm what we were seeing in Year 2.  We kind of knew who Sam was after two years.  The challenge with Sam IMO was that he gives you those 2 or 3 amazing throws per game that some coaches are absolutely infatuated with, and it's enough that they convince themselves they can beat all the other bad habits and shortcomings out of him.  Sam played under two different coaches across 3 seasons here with a mix of different players, but nothing really solved his biggest issue... inconsistency and being mistake prone.  This is the one thing that has given me some confidence that Zach might take the next step, he seemed to be learning by the final two months of the season how to limit his mistakes yet still move the ball fairly effectively.  Again, a second offseason with this system and the hopeful addition of another dimension to the Jets offense (either a respectable TE threat or an available/non-injured deep threat like Elijah Moore) might help Zach make that jump.  But it's really up to him.

I do think a lot have forgotten that the big jump is usually season 1 to 2 because of Josh Allen, but it is usually true. 

It's very likely that we'll know who he is, and where he is trending by the end of next season. Especially if he's out there for all 17 (and maybe more) games. 

[Origen]

28 minutes ago, section314 said:

Allen's rookie numbers across the board, except yards passing, are almost identical to Zach's. Not that it means anything going forward, just very interesting.

Yeah, and he was as bad at hitting the easy pass as ZW too.  I thought he was the biggest but of them all, BUT, he worked hard and the coaches built an offense around him that he could run and succeed in.  Now we learn if Zach has the will to win and will work on his craft, and if the coaches are able to fine-tune the O to fit his skills better for how the game actually plays.  Fingers crossed!

[section314]

8 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I feel like you'll have a really good sense for who a QB is after he's played 2 seasons (assuming he played most of the games in each year and didn't miss significant time).

We'll be able to say whether the Zach traffic light is flashing red (bust), yellow (mediocre starter), or green (potential Top 10 NFL QB) by the end of next year, maybe even halfway thru next year.

I believe a QB's biggest growth should take place from Year 1 to Year 2, that would be where we could see the biggest jump.

Sam Darnold got a third season here and what it did was mostly confirm what we were seeing in Year 2.  We kind of knew who Sam was after two years.  The challenge with Sam IMO was that he gives you those 2 or 3 amazing throws per game that some coaches are absolutely infatuated with, and it's enough that they convince themselves they can beat all the other bad habits and shortcomings out of him.  Sam played under two different coaches across 3 seasons here with a mix of different players,sue... inconsistency and being mistak but nothing really solved his biggest ise prone.  This is the one thing that has given me some confidence that Zach might take the next step, he seemed to be learning by the final two months of the season how to limit his mistakes yet still move the ball fairly effectively.  Again, a second offseason with this system and the hopeful addition of another dimension to the Jets offense (either a respectable TE threat or an available/non-injured deep threat like Elijah Moore) might help Zach make that jump.  But it's really up to him.

Great point. Gives me the same hope.

[Peace Frog]

4 minutes ago, Origen said:

Yeah, and he was as bad at hitting the easy pass as ZW too.  I thought he was the biggest but of them all, BUT, he worked hard and the coaches built an offense around him that he could run and succeed in.  Now we learn if Zach has the will to win and will work on his craft, and if the coaches are able to fine-tune the O to fit his skills better for how the game actually plays.  Fingers crossed!

Getting Stefon Diggs was a huge turning point. 

Weaponz. 

[jetstream23]

38 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Josh Allen didn't really flourish until his 3rd season but I feel like you generally know if a guy is going to be a star by year 2. 

Well, let's not forget some things that may have helped Allen make that jump from Year 2 to Year 3...

 

A single WR being targeted 166 times as Diggs was during the 2020 season is pretty amazing.  When you throw more than 10 passes in a game to a single player that can seem like a lot.  When you AVERAGE more than 10 passes per game to a single player over the whole season it might just give a hint as to what changed on that offense.

[section314]

I always harken back to the Bill Walsh litmus test....25 games as a starter. Bill always said that's enough time to see if a guy has the goods to keep getting better, or if you are just wasting your time. 

[jetstream23]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Getting Stefon Diggs was a huge turning point. 

Weaponz. 

It's like ...

[Larz]

It’s actually not our decision 

[Peace Frog]

3 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Well, let's not forget some things that may have helped Allen make that jump from Year 2 to Year 3...

 

A single WR being targeted 166 times as Diggs was during the 2020 season is pretty amazing.  When you throw more than 10 passes in a game to a single player that can seem like a lot.  When you AVERAGE more than 10 passes per game to a single player over the whole season it might just give a hint as to what changed on that offense.

I invented this. 

[Peace Frog]

4 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Well, let's not forget some things that may have helped Allen make that jump from Year 2 to Year 3...

 

A single WR being targeted 166 times as Diggs was during the 2020 season is pretty amazing.  When you throw more than 10 passes in a game to a single player that can seem like a lot.  When you AVERAGE more than 10 passes per game to a single player over the whole season it might just give a hint as to what changed on that offense.

That was supposed to be our Corey Davis, if you recall Zach was targeting him almost to a fault with all his drops and his relative lack of separation. 
 

Diggs is ALWAYS wide open and hardly ever drops the ball!

[nj meadowlands]

My take is, 12 more games until you can start truly evaluating.  If he has not developed rapidly by that point, you start contingency planning / seriously consider pulling off the band-aid.

[jetstream23]

We saw what Stefon Diggs did for Allen and what the addition of Deandre Hopkins did for Kyler Murray.  It won't happen but finding a way to add a stud, experienced WR like a Davante Adams is precisely what can help a young QB make a big leap.  Most people consider the Jets biggest weapon on offense to be Elijah Moore... a rookie who has played a total of 11 NFL games.  That's not the same thing as adding a crafty, talented, veteran WR who walks onto a team already having had a couple of 100 catch seasons.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

Zack's time will be up once Douglas is fired.