Garrett Wilson or Treylon Burks

[Doggin94it]

On 1/15/2022 at 5:23 PM, derp said:

We saw a team that ran a lot of 12 personnel early in the season despite having…less than optimal talent at the tight end position. But Davis-Crowder-Moore-Berrios at WR.

Some order of edge/other defender (or OL I guess) in R1 followed by a day two that includes McBride, defender/OL, and Ruckert might let them play the style they actually want to play. Obviously depends on FA and who they can land. But I don’t know if they actually want to be in three wide a bunch.

I do think the big issue is what is the role Davis plays over the next couple years because he disappointed.

The big boring issue, which I think is why we all want receivers, is they don’t have many guys who can beat man coverage. It’s pretty much Moore right now. And frankly that’s been an issue for a while.

Davis is actually pretty good when he's not the main focus of the D. He's not going to beat double teams or even true no. 1 CBs, but he can do real damage against other defenders. That's why his breakout for Tennessee lagged AJ Brown's. It's also why I've been perseverating on the idea that the Jets need to throw a ton of money at a true no. 1 WR type this offseason. The ripple effects of a move like that would be just incalculable

[DoomProphet]

8 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

That's what I like to hear. This WR group seems forced to me - by which I mean teams will be talking themselves into who's the best in the group but none of them would even have been in the conversation last year. We'd have been discussing them in the Toney/Bateman/Moore range. 

That's not a slight - all those guys looked good this year, obviously moore looks great - but these are bottom of round 1, early round two type guys we shouldn't be considering in the top 10.

Great points.

[win4ever]

I still don't pick any of them in the first, but if I had to pick (lets say we drop down to pick 20), I would go Wilson.  I like Burks upside much more, and I think he's a perfect fit in the system.  However, Wilson is safer bet to be consistently open, and I love good route runners.  

[DoomProphet]

Just now, win4ever said:

I still don't pick any of them in the first, but if I had to pick (lets say we drop down to pick 20), I would go Wilson.  I like Burks upside much more, and I think he's a perfect fit in the system.  However, Wilson is safer bet to be consistently open, and I love good route runners.  

Well put.

[Sonny Werblin]

I cannot see JD using a first round pick on a WR. It is a position with it's fair share of players who don't pan out and you he really needs to hit on the first round picks. I see him using a 2d or third round pick on a WR who fits the system, like Wan'Dale Robinson. 

[Stark]

On 1/14/2022 at 8:29 PM, docdhc said:

Both look explosive. Guess I’d rather have the big guy all things being equal. I would trust jets to know who fits the system better

 like the size and speed combo... it looks like Burks is faster than Wilson. IF we are trying to add the "Deebo" role this guy looks like it also similar to AJ Brown I like the size and speed seems sure handed

Wilson looks like slower version but Burks just has a little extra gear. I don't know that we take a WR at 10 and I don't know that I take either of them at 10 but if I had to I think I'd lean Burks off of height/speed and the role we could use him in. 

I think JD needs to get a WR in FA anyhow. 

[DoomProphet]

1 hour ago, Stark said:

 like the size and speed combo... it looks like Burks is faster than Wilson. IF we are trying to add the "Deebo" role this guy looks like it also similar to AJ Brown I like the size and speed seems sure handed

Wilson looks like slower version but Burks just has a little extra gear. I don't know that we take a WR at 10 and I don't know that I take either of them at 10 but if I had to I think I'd lean Burks off of height/speed and the role we could use him in. 

I think JD needs to get a WR in FA anyhow. 

I heard reports that they expect Burks to run a 4.2 in the combine. If that's the case that's Randy Moss territory. The 91 yard TD really showcases his speed.

[Stark]

17 minutes ago, DoomProphet said:

I heard reports that they expect Burks to run a 4.2 in the combine. If that's the case that's Randy Moss territory. The 91 yard TD really showcases his speed.

right now he's my "get this dude the ball" WR that we don't have and haven't had. If he hits low 4.3's even that's gonna be crazy.

I would be happy to have him. but every time I say I want a guy we don't get them and they go light it up somewhere else. 

[section314]

23 minutes ago, Stark said:

right now he's my "get this dude the ball" WR that we don't have and haven't had. If he hits low 4.3's even that's gonna be crazy.

I would be happy to have him. but every time I say I want a guy we don't get them and they go light it up somewhere else. 

I've been on his train too. Would you take him at #4? If he puts up numbers like this, and has a great combine, the way this draft looks, he might not be there at 4.

[Stark]

8 minutes ago, section314 said:

I've been on his train too. Would you take him at #4? If he puts up numbers like this, and has a great combine, the way this draft looks, he might not be there at 4.

I don't know. I do want this kind of WR just not sure where id take him... 10.... maybe depending on what JD does in FA..... 4 can't say that right now. 

I can talk myself into most anything but Burks at 4, no.... trade 4 and fall back maybe. 

I think there are too many possible scenarios and options for JD to make any type of call like that right now and even if, I still have a hard time at 4. think id pass.

[win4ever]

I love Burks, but there is a reason why guys like Brown/Metcalf fell to the 2nd, because route running is highly valued.  Now if Burks shows agility, then he'll go in the first for sure, but there is no way we should pick him with the 4th pick.  I think top 10 picks have to be surefire studs if they are a receiver.  Someone like Julio/Cooper/AJ Green etc, guys that can get picked and immediately be WR1 on a bad team.  

I love him in the draft, and agree with the Deebo comparisons, but we just can't take the risk in the top 10.  Go down to the 20 range? Sure.

[#27TheDominator]

6 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I love Burks, but there is a reason why guys like Brown/Metcalf fell to the 2nd, because route running is highly valued.  Now if Burks shows agility, then he'll go in the first for sure, but there is no way we should pick him with the 4th pick.  I think top 10 picks have to be surefire studs if they are a receiver.  Someone like Julio/Cooper/AJ Green etc, guys that can get picked and immediately be WR1 on a bad team.  

I love him in the draft, and agree with the Deebo comparisons, but we just can't take the risk in the top 10.  Go down to the 20 range? Sure.

How do you show agility? This is an honest question.  Is it the drills?  I remember Boykin was a big fast dude that had to show agility.  He ran a crazy good cone time, especially for such a big fast dude.  I got sucked into picking him for the Ravens in the mock.  In the end, he has been meh at best.  I picture DeCosta and Ozzie saying why did we listen to that guy? 

[section314]

13 minutes ago, Stark said:

I don't know. I do want this kind of WR just not sure where id take him... 10.... maybe depending on what JD does in FA..... 4 can't say that right now. 

I can talk myself into most anything but Burks at 4, no.... trade 4 and fall back maybe. 

I think there are too many possible scenarios and options for JD to make any type of call like that right now and even if, I still have a hard time at 4. think id pass.

Good post. It's all so theoretical at this stage. So much will happen, and boards change, between now and the draft. Just hope at least one of the QB's lights it up. 

[win4ever]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

How do you show agility? This is an honest question.  Is it the drills?  I remember Boykin was a big fast dude that had to show agility.  He ran a crazy good cone time, especially for such a big fast dude.  I got sucked into picking him for the Ravens in the mock.  In the end, he has been meh at best.  I picture DeCosta and Ozzie saying why did we listen to that guy? 

I think it's a combination of things, where it's not strictly the agility in the drills.  

For example, Metcalf dropped because he had bad agility in the drills, and then ran basically 3 routes in college, which kinda backed up the agility drills.  Fortunately for him, his size/speed mismatch on those 3 routes are so great, that it doesn't really matter that he's mediocre on those routes.  On tape in college, he dominated those three routes, but folks were worried those three wouldn't be enough to translate over.  

With say Elijah Moore, given his size, the agility score has to be much higher and it's backed up by the tape.  His ability to cut without losing much momentum is clearly evident in tape and drills.  

A guy like Boykin didn't make sense with his numbers, because the tape didn't match his drills.  Forget agility, it didn't even match his speed.  I saw him get run down from behind on numerous plays, there's no way he ran a 4.42 on the field.  He wasn't really all that agile either, but his drills were insane.  In that case, the tape didn't back up the agility in the drills.  

A guy like Deebo has mid level agility, but he's physical like a running back and his tape showed him to be a bully with the ball.  I didn't think he was going to be this good, like a running back, but you can clearly see the YAC ability once he makes a catch.  

With Burks, he shows more agility than Metcalf on tape, but not the bully level of Deebo, and nowhere near Moore.  However, I haven't gotten the All-22 yet to see some of the routes that he ran. 

To answer the question, it's tape + drills to show agility.  If he can make cuts without losing much speed (usually smaller guys like Moore/Waddle etc) while showing the long speed with his size/speed, then he's a freak.  I haven't seen elite level agility on tape, but that offense relied a ton of RPOs, where you see receivers not sure if they should run or block at times.  I think he's below Deebo in terms of agility but better than Metcalf.  However, I think Metcalf was better at the size/speed aspect.  

It was hard to scout because of the year off, but a guy like Chase demonstrates the freakiness of having good (not great) size, with great agility with the Bengals.  He makes those cuts without losing much speed, but has the size to match up with corners, and the speed to threaten safeties.  

I think the offense that we run, relies on manipulating the intermediate areas, but we need guys that can threaten with agility.  Moore is perfect out of the slot because of his agility, and Berrios thrived because of his agility as well.  Burks would be better if he shows agility, because of his size, but I think they value agility over size.  It's still why I have Wilson as WR1 because his route running and agility is probably the best in class, and that assures him to be open more than pure size/speed guys.  

OK, now I'm not even sure if I answered it, feel like I just rambled.  

[derp]

35 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

How do you show agility? This is an honest question.  Is it the drills?  I remember Boykin was a big fast dude that had to show agility.  He ran a crazy good cone time, especially for such a big fast dude.  I got sucked into picking him for the Ravens in the mock.  In the end, he has been meh at best.  I picture DeCosta and Ozzie saying why did we listen to that guy? 

Mims is another who had better than expected agility for his size. 

[Bruce Harper]

1 hour ago, DoomProphet said:

I heard reports that they expect Burks to run a 4.2 in the combine. If that's the case that's Randy Moss territory. The 91 yard TD really showcases his speed.

He looks fast for his size but nowhere near 4.2 on tape.

[Bruce Harper]

I like both of these guys but 10 may be a bit high for each of them, with all our other needs.  Maybe if we trade down?

[derp]

2 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

He looks fast for his size but nowhere near 4.2 on tape.

To be fair no football player runs 4.2 flat. He has little bursts where you can tell he’s really fast - I think not just for his size but fast period. It’s always hard to tell with the bigger guys though.

[Chrebetfan80]

On 1/14/2022 at 9:23 PM, derp said:

Burks is a really fun prospect. His usage reminds me of the kinds of stuff the Jets do with their wide receivers, so I think he could do that day one, but I don’t know how much traditional WR stuff he’s good at. He physically reminds me of the elite WR’s who came out a while ago and I think he can do most stuff you need a receiver to do but needs development. Not sure how that trajectory works for the Jets.

The other thing is the league’s elite wide receivers don’t fit that big physically dominant mold any more. I don’t know how much of that is the new rule enforcement allows for more technician type receivers to get open more easily or just that the big receivers haven’t come out.

Wilson looks really technically proficient and has quick feet. I think he has an easier time making a day one impact doing traditional wide receiver stuff. He reminds me of a lot of the guys who are on the really high end of production in the league right now - it’s just a little hard to get a read on him because Ohio State has had so many good wide receivers he hasn’t really had to be a go-to guy which analytics wise tends to help, though there are exceptions on the really good WR teams.

We all know how i feel on this.  Wilson is at the top of this WR class as far as im concerned based on exactly what you alluded to.  He does everything you need a WR to do right now to be successful in the nfl.  He did have some drops this year, which he'll have to sure up, but he's a dynamic route runner and has a great feel for space which will help him immediately coming into the league.  Get him in an offense that allows him to use his talents and he's going to be very productive right away. 

Burks has a chance to do some nice things initially, ill be interested to see what his route running looks like in the predraft process.  A lot of these guys start to work with personalized coaches to prepare for all the workouts so i want to know who he starts working with and how he progresses.  That will tell me alot about where he can get to as a player in terms of route running. 

[Chrebetfan80]

30 minutes ago, derp said:

To be fair no football player runs 4.2 flat. He has little bursts where you can tell he’s really fast - I think not just for his size but fast period. It’s always hard to tell with the bigger guys though.

Ive said this in another thread but people that are apart of his training team are hinting at a 40 in the 4.2s at the combine.  We'll see, i dont think its going to happen but who knows. 

[derp]

40 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Ive said this in another thread but people that are apart of his training team are hinting at a 40 in the 4.2s at the combine.  We'll see, i dont think its going to happen but who knows. 

Even though be looks like he accelerates well I’d guess at his size he’s probably a bit of a build up guy. I’d be curious where he maxes out at speed wise but even sub 4.4 at 230 would be pretty impressive.

It is kind of funny though - his risk/reward as a prospect gets worse the faster he runs. The team that drafts him is better off if he runs a 4.55 due to bad form and slips to the second round. He’s still a dude who can run away from guys regardless.

[nycdan]

Kiper just called London his clear #1.  But after watching his tape, I see a guy who doesn't get separation and just wins contested catches.  Great but not sure how that will play at the next level.  Burks, on the other hand, does all that, but also clearly has another gear.  If I had to put my money down right now, that would be my pick.

And IMO, if you accept that he's a top-15 pick, then you don't debate if #10 is too high.  If he can do in the NFL what he did on that tape, he's worth the pick.

[Stark]

11 hours ago, nycdan said:

Kiper just called London his clear #1.  But after watching his tape, I see a guy who doesn't get separation and just wins contested catches.  Great but not sure how that will play at the next level.  Burks, on the other hand, does all that, but also clearly has another gear.  If I had to put my money down right now, that would be my pick.

And IMO, if you accept that he's a top-15 pick, then you don't debate if #10 is too high.  If he can do in the NFL what he did on that tape, he's worth the pick.

Agree

 

i like London too but Burks would have to be the guy especially at 10, if that’s what JETS do

[sec101row23]

Wilson is going to jump close to 40” in the vertical.  You don’t see him high pointing a lot balls in college because he gets so much separation, but in the NFL he won’t have the luxury of having that much space and I think his vertical game could become more of a factor for him.   I’m not saying he’s going to be living above the rim but he has some more potential than he’s shown.  

[derp]

6 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Wilson is going to jump close to 40” in the vertical.  You don’t see him high pointing a lot balls in college because he gets so much separation, but in the NFL he won’t have the luxury of having that much space and I think his vertical game could become more of a factor for him.   I’m not saying he’s going to be living above the rim but he has some more potential than he’s shown.  

Yeah he doesn’t do it often but it’s pretty clear he can get up. That sideline catch in the playoff game was wild, there are a couple other instances. I’m very curious what he runs. Think it basically only matters for draft positioning which is a weird point to have come around to, but here we are.

[sec101row23]