Zach Wilson incompletions highlights

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Not hating our receivers to prop up Wilson, calling our receivers for what they are.  

Agree to disagree, I think our WR's are better than Wilson Defenders make out.  Same for our O-line.  

Davis certainly had more drops than normal, no question.  

Moore, not known for drops in college far as I know, had early issues.

And Ty Johnson is a drop machine at RB (and not a great RB, so not sure why he's stuck around tbqh, or why he gets his number called on passing downs).

Still, I saw plenty of passes behind , short or over our receivers all season long, some caught, some not. 

In my view, Zach had serious issues with his accuracy at times in 2021 and it's a meaningful reason as to why his completion percentage is so low. 

He need to improve if we're to do better, and I hope he will.  And our WR had more drops than I'd prefer, and I think they need to improve and they will.  Davis will hopefully return to norm, Moore should be over his own rookie yips, and we will (I hope) have a shiny new #1 WR from pick #10 to help out along with a resigned Berrios.

Future should be bright.

[Peace Frog]

49 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

True, but I also think you have to consider when they make the drops. The ones in third down just see so much worse than a first or second down drop. Probably just my perspective watching the game hoping we could sustain drives. 

I said it earlier but considering how many times we ran on 1st and 2nd down, those drops inevitably led to three and outs and no opportunity for more plays and scoring drives. 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

A quick googling found this:

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Listing of individual "leaders" in dropped pass players.

Our worst was ranked 16th, a RB (Johnson), with 5.  

Davis does not appear on the list (surprisingly).  Nor does Moore.

This is the same source (NBC Sports), but team dropped passes.

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

The Jets are listed 5th, not 1st.

I find it interesting that the difference between being 5th and being 20th is only 5 drops, over 17 games.  Or one drop per three games. 

Hardly make or break for a QB throwing it 30-40 times a game at that level of variance.

 

 

Can you break the list down further for third down drops?  Not all drops are equal.  A drop on first down still allows a team to recover.

It "felt" like a majority of our drops came on the crutIal down, but it could just be my PTSD playing tricks on my memory. 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

Some of those were brutal, no doubt, but this isnt that uncommon, drops happen, tips happen, you see it all the time.  That said, if you did a video of the amount of balls Zach dirted or just egregiously missed it would be painful to watch.  So these videos are fun but biased and never really prove the narrative it's trying to prove. 

Do the Jets need to upgrade their weaponz?  Yes. Absolutely.  Were the weaponz the reason Zach Wilson was awful at times?  No.  Absolutely not.  Just as many egregious misses as there were drops and the other side of this coin is, we saw how the offense ticked when Zach was on the sidelines.

To me, that's encouraging because I do think we saw some growth from Zach to finish the season and if that growth continues, his weaponz really only need a few pieces instead of an overhaul.  IMO, all this offense really needs is an upgrade at TE, IOL, WR in that order and it could as strong as it's been since I dont know when.

I'm proud of you.  

[doitny]

how about all the throws that were drops that are not recorded as such.

i was just checking out the NO game where Ty Johnson had 3 drops and they only charged him with 2. 

am i the only one who thought that was a 3 drop game?

[Warfish]

25 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

 

Can you break the list down further for third down drops?  Not all drops are equal.  A drop on first down still allows a team to recover.

It "felt" like a majority of our drops came on the crutIal down, but it could just be my PTSD playing tricks on my memory. 

I cannot, no.  If you are aware of a source that does, I'd love to see it.  I'm honestly not aware of a source that provides that level of breakdown on "pass drops by team by player by down".

[Peace Frog]

I cannot believe Ty Johnson only had 5 drops. It felt like he had 5 drops in one game alone. I think 3 on one drive. 

[Peace Frog]

32 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

 

Can you break the list down further for third down drops?  Not all drops are equal.  A drop on first down still allows a team to recover.

It "felt" like a majority of our drops came on the crutIal down, but it could just be my PTSD playing tricks on my memory. 

No you’re right. We ran on first and second to a fault early on and that’s when Zach was struggling but also resulted in killer drops on third down. 

[FidelioJet]

2 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Some of those were brutal, no doubt, but this isnt that uncommon, drops happen, tips happen, you see it all the time.  That said, if you did a video of the amount of balls Zach dirted or just egregiously missed it would be painful to watch.  So these videos are fun but biased and never really prove the narrative it's trying to prove. 

Do the Jets need to upgrade their weaponz?  Yes. Absolutely.  Were the weaponz the reason Zach Wilson was awful at times?  No.  Absolutely not.  Just as many egregious misses as there were drops and the other side of this coin is, we saw how the offense ticked when Zach was on the sidelines.

To me, that's encouraging because I do think we saw some growth from Zach to finish the season and if that growth continues, his weaponz really only need a few pieces instead of an overhaul.  IMO, all this offense really needs is an upgrade at TE, IOL, WR in that order and it could as strong as it's been since I dont know when.

What's gonna happen around here if everyone starts being reasonable...

 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

31 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I cannot, no.  If you are aware of a source that does, I'd love to see it.  I'm honestly not aware of a source that provides that level of breakdown on "pass drops by team by player by down".

Another stat that may show a clearer picture on how drops affect teams differently would be a percentage of drops per pass attempt.

 

Yes, Herbert had 8 more drops, but he had 672 pass attempts to Wilson's 383. 

4.9% drops for Herbert to 6.535% for Wilson.

 

 

* we may have to go to team attempts if you were counting total drops from all the Jet quarterbacks. 

674 to 603 then. 

 

** edit- I'm not a math whiz so feel free to correct my numbers if they're off. 

[FidelioJet]

16 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Another stat that may show a clearer picture on how drops affect teams differently would be a percentage of drops per pass attempt.

 

Yes, Herbert had 8 more drops, but he had 672 pass attempts to Wilson's 383. 

4.9% drops for Herbert to 6.535% for Wilson.

 

 

* we may have to go to team attempts if you were counting total drops from all the Jet quarterbacks. 

674 to 603 then. 

 

** edit- I'm not a math whiz so feel free to correct my numbers if they're off. 

This was originally posted by @cat999but...

According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson had 12.7% of his catchable passes dropped, which was the highest rate in the NFL among 35 qualified quarterbacks.

Not only did Wilson rank No. 1 in the category, but he was in his own stratosphere:

1. Zach Wilson, 12.7%
2. Jacoby Brissett, 9.6%
3. Sam Darnold, 9.3%
4. Trevor Lawrence, 9.3%
5. Baker Mayfield, 9.0%
6. Matthew Stafford, 8.0%
7. Justin Herbert, 7.9%
8. Ben Roethlisberger, 7.8%
9. Justin Fields, 7.6%
10. Daniel Jones, 7.6%

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This was originally posted by @cat999but...

According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson had 12.7% of his catchable passes dropped, which was the highest rate in the NFL among 35 qualified quarterbacks.

Not only did Wilson rank No. 1 in the category, but he was in his own stratosphere:

1. Zach Wilson, 12.7%
2. Jacoby Brissett, 9.6%
3. Sam Darnold, 9.3%
4. Trevor Lawrence, 9.3%
5. Baker Mayfield, 9.0%
6. Matthew Stafford, 8.0%
7. Justin Herbert, 7.9%
8. Ben Roethlisberger, 7.8%
9. Justin Fields, 7.6%
10. Daniel Jones, 7.6%

Does PFF also provide what % of his total passes were, by their evaluation, catchable?

[Bleedin Green]

13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Does PFF also provide what % of his total passes were, by their evaluation, catchable?

You see, Wilson having a low number of catchable passes is now apparently a defense.

[cat999]

31 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Does PFF also provide what % of his total passes were, by their evaluation, catchable?

Good question.  I don't know as I am not a PFF subscriber.  I got this info directly from the Narnia article.  Perhaps someone else has a subscription and can answer that, but I would assume the same criteria was used across all QB's so Wilson having the highest % was really eye opening for me.

[Snook]

16 hours ago, doitny said:

actually Zack was 3rd in drop % at 6.8 only Fields and Darnold had a worst one.

Brady was 17th at 4.5%

Rodgers was best at 2.5%

2021 NFL Advanced Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

• Drops: Receiving drops - receptions missed on balls given a reasonable (non-Odell Beckham-level) effort
   
• Quoted from site ?

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, maury77 said:

You could make one of these videos for every single QB in the league. Are we going to present a dropped interceptions video too?

You could, but Wilson’s “poor throws” video would be the longest.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Does PFF also provide what % of his total passes were, by their evaluation, catchable?

I covered that in my “Poor Throw %” thread that was universally mocked.

 

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, cat999 said:

Good question.  I don't know as I am not a PFF subscriber.  I got this info directly from the Narnia article.  Perhaps someone else has a subscription and can answer that, but I would assume the same criteria was used across all QB's so Wilson having the highest % was really eye opening for me.

Aye, I'm not either.

I can't evaluate stat A ("% of catchable balls dropped") without stat B ("total catchable balls").  They're sorta tied together at the hip.

If a QB has 100 catchable balls out of 100 throws, and his WR's drop 5, his catchable ball drop rate is only 5%.  Great WR's never drop anything!!

If a QB has only 10 catchable balls out of 100 throws, and his WR's drop 1, his catchable ball drop rate is 10%!  Ugh, horrible WR's ruining this QB!!

You can see the math kinda requires you to know both sides to make head and tails out of either stat.

TLDR:  Wilson's % of catchable balls dropped could be higher than anyone else because he threw less catchable balls than anyone else.  Or it could be the WR's.  Or somewhere in between.

 

[Jet Nut]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Agree to disagree, I think our WR's are better than Wilson Defenders make out.  Same for our O-line.  

Davis certainly had more drops than normal, no question.  

Moore, not known for drops in college far as I know, had early issues.

And Ty Johnson is a drop machine at RB (and not a great RB, so not sure why he's stuck around tbqh, or why he gets his number called on passing downs).

Still, I saw plenty of passes behind , short or over our receivers all season long, some caught, some not. 

In my view, Zach had serious issues with his accuracy at times in 2021 and it's a meaningful reason as to why his completion percentage is so low. 

He need to improve if we're to do better, and I hope he will.  And our WR had more drops than I'd prefer, and I think they need to improve and they will.  Davis will hopefully return to norm, Moore should be over his own rookie yips, and we will (I hope) have a shiny new #1 WR from pick #10 to help out along with a resigned Berrios.

Future should be bright.

Yeah, all who don’t agree with the WR nonsense, who understand their limitations are Wilson defenders.

While you go on and on blaming the rookie for the WRs

 

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Yeah, all who don’t agree with the WR nonsense, who understand their limitations are Wilson defenders.

While you go on and on blaming the rookie for the WRs

If that is your take, you're entitled to it.  

[Jet Nut]

Just now, Warfish said:

If that is your take, you're entitled to it.  

I think you don’t realize what you wrote

[FidelioJet]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Aye, I'm not either.

I can't evaluate stat A ("% of catchable balls dropped") without stat B ("total catchable balls").  They're sorta tied together at the hip.

If a QB has 100 catchable balls out of 100 throws, and his WR's drop 5, his catchable ball drop rate is only 5%.  Great WR's never drop anything!!

If a QB has only 10 catchable balls out of 100 throws, and his WR's drop 1, his catchable ball drop rate is 10%!  Ugh, horrible WR's ruining this QB!!

You can see the math kinda requires you to know both sides to make head and tails out of either stat.

TLDR:  Wilson's % of catchable balls dropped could be higher than anyone else because he threw less catchable balls than anyone else.  Or it could be the WR's.  Or somewhere in between.

 

Why?

If a ball is catchable it should be caught.  Nothing particularly tricky about that language.

If the point you're trying to get at is Wilson is bad too - Yes, we all know what you think....

It doesn't change the fact that Zach Wilson had the largest % of catchable passes dropped.  There is no other data point necessary to understand that.

 

If you're trying to get to some other numbers to understand how many total catchable balls - while I don't have PFF 

We know he had: 213 completions on 383 attempts.  So at a minimum he had 213 catchable balls - because, well,  they were caught.

 

 

[Peace Frog]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Why?

If a ball is catchable it should be caught.  Nothing particularly tricky about that language.

If the point you're trying to get at is Wilson is bad too - Yes, we all know what you think....

It doesn't change the fact that Zach Wilson had the largest % of catchable passes dropped.  There is no other data point necessary to understand that.

 

We know he had: 213 completions on 383 attempts.  So at a minimum he had 213 catchable balls - because, well,  they were caught.

 

 

No. Most of his receptions were on bad throws. 

Try to keep up. 

[Grandy]

Btw PFF and other metrics only count drops on what they consider to be catchable passes.

[shevys]

18 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

Unquestionably a few bad drops in there, but also some pretty bad throws shown that are a bit much to be trying to celebrate Wilson for.

Drops happen throughout the NFL and the Jets certainly weren't the worst in that regard, so unless anyone wants to go through and give the rest of the league's QBs extra credit for their drops too, let's not pretend like that does anything to change what actually happened.  Guys like Allen and Herbert actually had it worse, but seemed to somehow manage.

Pretty sure you’re missing the point of the thread. 

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Btw PFF and other metrics only count drops on what they consider to be catchable passes.

Of course.

And every QB is held the same standard of that that means.

[Peace Frog]

4 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Btw PFF and other metrics only count drops on what they consider to be catchable passes.

Even if they are clearly “bad” catchable passes?

Lol

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I think you don’t realize what you wrote

If you say so.  

25 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Why?

As noted, because the two stats have direct interaction with each other mathematically.

Quote

If a ball is catchable it should be caught.  Nothing particularly tricky about that language.

Agreed.  Although I guarantee you you and I would disagree on what is or isn't "catchable".

Quote

If the point you're trying to get at is Wilson is bad too - Yes, we all know what you think....

My point is that one stat needs the other for a full evaluation and understanding of their meaning.  

Quote

It doesn't change the fact that Zach Wilson had the largest % of catchable passes dropped.

It does not, nor did I claim it did.

Quote

  There is no other data point necessary to understand that.

As was clearly shown in the example, mathematically there is.  

I find it very interesting how aggressive you seem to be in actively NOT wanting to know ZW's % and gross total of catchable throws.  

Quote

If you're trying to get to some other numbers to understand how many total catchable balls

That's exactly what I asked, but sadly no one seems to have it.  

[FidelioJet]

19 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If you say so.  

As noted, because the two stats have direct interaction with each other mathematically.

Agreed.  Although I guarantee you you and I would disagree on what is or isn't "catchable".

My point is that one stat needs the other for a full evaluation and understanding of their meaning.  

It does not, nor did I claim it did.

As was clearly shown in the example, mathematically there is.  

I find it very interesting how aggressive you seem to be in actively NOT wanting to know ZW's % and gross total of catchable throws.  

That's exactly what I asked, but sadly no one seems to have it.  

Look, I'm not a big fan of this advanced stats stuff anyway - but since we're doing this.

I don't care what you think is catchable or what I think is catchable - in this scenario it's what PFF thinks is catchable - and they hold all QB's to that same standard.

So again, Zach Wilson had the largest % of "Catchable" passes dropped.  As per PFF data - that is an undeniable fact.

Not agressively trying to stop anything.  I don't have PFF....

But I did give you a pretty solid number to help you get there.. 

He had 213 completions in 383 attempts 55.6% completion....so at a minimum he had 213 catchable passes...at a minimum he had 55.6% catchable pass %

[Peace Frog]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Look, I'm not a big fan of this advanced stats stuff anyway - but since we're doing this.

I don't care what you think is catchable or what I think is catchable - in this scenario it's what PFF thinks is catchable - and they hold all QB's to that same standard.

So again, Zach Wilson had the largest % of "Catchable" passes dropped.  As per PFF data - that is an undeniable fact.

Not agressively trying to stop anything.  I don't have PFF....

Btu I did give you a pretty solid number to help you get there.. 

He had 213 completions in 383 attempts 55.6% completion....so at a minimum he had 213 catchable passes...at a minimum he had 55.6% catchable pass %

Even his throw aways were inaccurate. 

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Even his throw aways were inaccurate. 

I think where we're going here is...

Many of the throws made by Zach Willson - where his receivers caught the ball were not actually catchable. 

 

[Peace Frog]

34 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think where we're going here is...

Many of the throws made by Zach Willson - where his receivers caught the ball were not actually catchable. 

 

He doesn’t throw a tight spiral. But some of his spirals are TOO spirally. 

[Jetsfan80]

36 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

He doesn’t throw a tight spiral. But some of his spirals are TOO spirally. 

You were pretty snarky towards the Darnold “haters”, too.  How did that work out for ya?

[Bleedin Green]

My favorite part of this thread has turned to dependence on supposed "fact" incorrectly thrown around for completely subjective evaluations that by are absolutely no measure fact.

It really just encompasses the historical evaluation of Jets QBs so well.  After all, we all know how accurately that same exact argument really defined the careers of juggernauts like Sanchez, Smith, and Darnold just before this.

[Jet Nut]