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Chicken Littles.


FidelioJet
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2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

They are not random. Are you the arbiter of what qualifies as a bad rookie season? All of those guys were panned as busts and went on to have pretty good careers. 

And won 8 Super Bowls between them. Let's see the "outlier" get to one. 

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4 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

MODS: DISCLAIMER: The following comment is meant as satire.  Its intentions are to elicit as sense of light-heartedness into the dialogue to further camaraderie.  Viewer discretion IS advised.

For the same reason anybody hates America:

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69 Communist Memes That Will Have You Red From Laughter

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55 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

WTF?

So, he's good but because he doesn't win from the pocket he isn't THAT good?  So what if he needs smoke and mirror gadget plays.  Is there a superior way to win now in the NFL I haven't heard about.  Last time I checked, they haven't divided the stats between "wins" and "superior" wins.  

And so even though he is a top ten QB in the league, better than we have had since Joe Namath, you need proof of a Super Bowl to prove his wins outside of the pocket using smoke and mirrors will be....equal?

I just don't understand.  I like Al Davis' motto of "just win baby!" far more than "lets win ideologically, or else its not as fun."

Winning fron the pocket is and always will be the "superior" way to win, as you put it. Pocket passers are the guys who win superbowls.

Put it this way. The bills run their offense the way they do, same thing with the Ravens, because they know their QB is not capable of winning from the pocket consistently. So they create a system that limits his weakness (throwing from the pocket 40 times a game) and play to his strenghts (athleticism, ability to throw on the move etc). To a lesser extent, the Chiefs do this with Mahomes.

Problem with this gadget style offense is, it usually gets exposed in the postseason.

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47 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Yeah...I don't completely see it that way.  

You can't build a winning team in one season.  You just can't.  There is no farm system to grow your talent.  The NFL is a cruel, fickle bitch.  You learn on the job or you don't play.  Period. In the past, you looked for the one Peyton Manning in a see of Ryan Leafs.  Well, that doesn't work anymore.  Teams who try it who get lucky are the few compared to the many who want a QB to come in and be a saviour compared to growing as a professional.  

I think we're roughly aligned. The thing I laud the Bills for and think the Jets should copy is that you draft a gifted player and then you provide that player with the support they need. Allen needed a lot of support to develop into the player he is now and go read the Bills GM talk about it.. he targeted a particular type of player that was going to help Allen (big catch radius, creates separation) using advanced analytics to work with Allen ball placement issues. Having guys like that let Allen have a better chance compared to other receivers who may be faster, bigger or better route runners. 

I don't think Zach Wilson coming into the league was as big of a lottery ticket as Allen was, but I think the type of support Allen got in his 1st year was superior to what Wilson got.. It feels a lot like the Jets just operated on very philosophy you mention. They picked the most talented prospect and sat back and hoped he'd turn into a manning tossing him in there with garbage everywhere. 

The issue I have is that the people on here who 'assume' that a bad season is really just an indicator of future success. Peyton manning having a poor first year is not an indicator that Wilson is good. Yes, there is the possibility that Wilson turns it around, but as you mention...

there's a entire ocean of Ryan Leafs who didn't and people are focused on occasional pearl someone found in that ocean as evidence that Zach Wilson is a pearl and should be fitted for his jacket. 

It's much more likely he's not and that the organization should be doing everything they can to polish him to make him look like one because it's extremely unlikely he just is.. they didn't do that and now it may be too late. Regardless, the mountains of historical evidence show it's much more likely he gets tossed back into the ocean as trash after a rookie season like this one no matter how much we hope otherwise. 

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On 1/16/2022 at 1:17 AM, jeremy2020 said:

The point being.. it's been done once. This idea that QB having really, really bad seasons is reason to think they won't be bad.. is silly. Allen's improvement is not a repeatable thing.. we know that because he's the only example. 

That being said, as I and others have argued, the Jets did a piss poor job giving Wilson a chance given the realities of skills, abilities, experience and the situation of the team and they need to rectify that this offseason so they don't end up repeating "Darnold Year 3"

Just like Steve Young.  Sucked in Tampa and never got any better anywhere else.  Right?

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Wilson is elusive, with a quick release and a strong arm.  He’s smart, spends time at his craft, and is getting better at reading defenses by the week.  
 
He will be the FQB and some fans will always be haters lol 

couldn’t agree more - before the season we all recognized that this would be a tough year for rookie qb on a building from the bottom team - all we asked for was improvement week to week and after coming back from injury that’s exactly what we saw - better footwork - better decision making -better results period - all without two top receivers etc - to write this kid off at this point is ludicrous to the max and proves just how ignorant too many fans are - also no qb sucked rookie year and then got real good ala allen? really? without working hard at it how about peyton manning for one? sheesh


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I didn't think Allen looked like a bust his first year. He was totally intiguing. Those runs he made were amazing. He was incredibly fun to watch that first year, and being such an unbelievable athletic, you knew his ceiling was very high even back then. 

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On 1/16/2022 at 6:59 AM, Ray Ryan said:

Zach Wilson reminds me a lot of Kellen Clemens and JP Losman “oh my God look at his throws!”

 

Give me a break, the kid is mediocre at best

 

I’ll play, which part of Kellen Clemens game reminds you of Zach Wilson? I don’t think I remember him doing 1 athletic thing 

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4 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

It's much more likely he's not and that the organization should be doing everything they can to polish him to make him look like one because it's extremely unlikely he just is.. they didn't do that and now it may be too late. Regardless, the mountains of historical evidence show it's much more likely he gets tossed back into the ocean as trash after a rookie season like this one no matter how much we hope otherwise. 

Here's the problem with this logic.

You can say that about EVERY QB to EVER be drafted.  There are like 10 true FQB in the entire league.  Are the odds long of Wilson being a FQB - strictly from a data perspective - sure.

You can say that about anyone.

What if Zach sat his first two years? Would you say - only one QB ever became a FQB after sitting for two years?

What if Zach sat his entire first year? Would you say - only one QB in the past 20 years that became a FQB is currently a FQB?

What if Wilson sucks his first two year? Would you say - only one QB sucked his first two years?

We have NO IDEA what Wilson would have looked liked if he sat his rookie year (Mahomes), or two years (Rodgers)....I suspect a heck of a lot better than he did this year.  

Point is they are ALL outliers in their own right.  Each of them got there a different way and each of them came into different situations...

So it's easy to point to any situation and say - "You see, it doesn't happen that often" You would be correct in stating that - but you can say that about just about any situation where someone became a FQB.

Note: There are MANY examples of FQB that struggled their first year, they've been listed here ad nauseam...

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13 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

There are MANY examples of FQB that struggled their first year, they've been listed here ad nauseam...

Would you agree the chance that Zach will not become a Franchise QB is higher now, after a full season where he was the worst producing starting QB in the NFL, than it was the day he was drafted?

Would you also agree that there are far more example of QB's who played poorly in year 1 that never became franchise QB's, than there are of franchise QB's who played poorly in their year 1.

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23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Would you agree the chance that Zach will not become a Franchise QB is higher now, after a full season where he was the worst producing starting QB in the NFL, than it was the day he was drafted?

Would you also agree that there are far more example of QB's who played poorly in year 1 that never became franchise QB's, than there are of franchise QB's who played poorly in their year 1.

I would think his chances are better now that I saw his growth in the second half of the year. Once I recognized how raw he was to be an NFL QB - and saw how quickly he adapted and evolved - I am far more bullish on him than I was to start the season.

Yes, of course there are a tremendous amount of examples of QB's who played poorly and never became a FQB.  There are also plenty of QB's that sat their first year and never became a FQB, or QB's that didn't play their first two years and  never became a FQB.  There are also guys that looked good their rookie year and never really amounted to anything.  Sure, if he came out and lit things up, that would have been great - but that's not what happened...

But...not all QB's are built the same - not all of the guys that failed have Zach's natural skill set - that has to be taken into account.

I learned a few things from his rookie year - none of which answers the question for me.  

I learn:

  • He was more raw than I thought - Has a long way to go
  • He needs to focus and not get into his own head (this was actually the biggest worry for me) is he mentally strong enough to handle the long term pressure of an NFL QB?  HUGE question for me
  • He is capable of growth - capable of learning quickly, adapting to his mistakes and growing from them (that is the biggest positive I took away from him this year)

With all of that said, statistically speaking, you are correct.  There is far less of his chance succeeding than failing.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Here's the problem with this logic.

You can say that about EVERY QB to EVER be drafted.  There are like 10 true FQB in the entire league.  Are the odds long of Wilson being a FQB - strictly from a data perspective - sure.

You can say that about anyone.

What if Zach sat his first two years? Would you say - only one QB ever became a FQB after sitting for two years?

What if Zach sat his entire first year? Would you say - only one QB in the past 20 years that became a FQB is currently a FQB?

What if Wilson sucks his first two year? Would you say - only one QB sucked his first two years?

We have NO IDEA what Wilson would have looked liked if he sat his rookie year (Mahomes), or two years (Rodgers)....I suspect a heck of a lot better than he did this year.  

Point is they are ALL outliers in their own right.  Each of them got there a different way and each of them came into different situations...

So it's easy to point to any situation and say - "You see, it doesn't happen that often" You would be correct in stating that - but you can say that about just about any situation where someone became a FQB.

Note: There are MANY examples of FQB that struggled their first year, they've been listed here ad nauseam...

I recognize that and have stated that many times on here. My issue with your ilk that act like those QBs who had bad rookie seasons and went on to be great aren't a minority. While, yes you can pick and choose out any "Blond haired QBs under 6'1" type of data is true.. 

You're making one silly error.. QB ranking and highly relevant and present a lot of data to even out anomalies. My point is and has been, based on his rookie season.. it is much more likely he's a bust than a franchise QB. 

As I've consistently said, you want to hope he is and look for slightest signs that's true.. knock yourself out. Just stop pretending it's likely because Steve Young had bad stats in a partial season.. like 30 years ago. Just because someone won the lottery doesn't make it LIKELY you will. 

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The thread is about hope....
About not being afraid to be optimistic...Not being afraid to once again be disappointed.
It's okay to root for your QB to succeed even if he eventually doesn't.  The opportunity for success is out there - so don't be a scared!
This thread is not targeted to everyone - just the fans that are actively rooting against their QB because they're scared of getting their hearts broken again.


No one is rooting against Zach. Everyone would love Zach to prove us wrong. It’s just that most fans are smart enough to recognize sh*t when they see it, and we recognize that Zach is sh*t. Some people can look at a turd and know it’s a turd. Some might have to smell it to be sure. Others like you apparently need to roll around in it and rub it all over you and eat it before you realize it’s sh*t.


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14 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

 


No one is rooting against Zach. Everyone would love Zach to prove us wrong. It’s just that most fans are smart enough to recognize sh*t when they see it, and we recognize that Zach is sh*t. Some people can look at a turd and know it’s a turd. Some might have to smell it to be sure. Others like you apparently need to roll around in it and rub it all over you and eat it before you realize it’s sh*t.


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I guess you must like the taste then, since you keep coming back for more.

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12 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

I recognize that and have stated that many times on here. My issue with your ilk that act like those QBs who had bad rookie seasons and went on to be great aren't a minority. 

You're making one silly error.. QB ranking and highly relevant and present a lot of data to even out anomalies. My point is and has been, based on his rookie season.. it is much more likely he's a bust than a franchise QB. 

As I've consistently said, you want to hope he is and look for slightest signs that's true.. knock yourself out. Just stop pretending it's likely because Steve Young had bad stats in a partial season.. like 30 years ago. Just because someone won the lottery doesn't make it LIKELY you will. 

I do get it and I have stated very often - that statistically failure is the most likely outcome.

But it's also statistically awful before you even step onto an NFL Football field.  

My point is really saying - because he had a bad first year - he's going to fail BECAUSE so few have done it.  My point is that's just not a great argument - because they're all outliers in the way they got there.

  1. You want to tell me Zach is statistically likely to fail - I won't argue that.
  2. You want to tell me Zach is likely to fail solely because the majority of current FQB didn't have rough first years- that's where I have a problem.

After that its how we view the kid and that is a very different argument - as all QB's are different with different talens and skill-sets - I'm happy to have that debate too (as I'm sure we disagree there too :-))

 

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I guess you must like the taste then, since you keep coming back for more.


I mean… if that’s what you gathered from what I wrote I guess reading comprehension is not for everyone. 🤷🏼‍♂️

Oh, we’re you trying to make a snarky joke? Yeah, I guess comedy isn’t for everyone either. Best of luck to you.


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On 1/18/2022 at 8:36 AM, Snell41 said:

 


No one is rooting against Zach. Everyone would love Zach to prove us wrong. It’s just that most fans are smart enough to recognize sh*t when they see it, and we recognize that Zach is sh*t. Some people can look at a turd and know it’s a turd. Some might have to smell it to be sure. Others like you apparently need to roll around in it and rub it all over you and eat it before you realize it’s sh*t.


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TV QB evaluator ^^^

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On 1/18/2022 at 7:36 AM, Snell41 said:

 


No one is rooting against Zach. Everyone would love Zach to prove us wrong. It’s just that most fans are smart enough to recognize sh*t when they see it, and we recognize that Zach is sh*t. Some people can look at a turd and know it’s a turd. Some might have to smell it to be sure. Others like you apparently need to roll around in it and rub it all over you and eat it before you realize it’s sh*t.


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You made up your mind way too early.  It’s silly you can’t acknowledge his potential, even if you don’t think he’ll get there.

The kid has proven he has elite tools and it’s all on learning to process the game.   He’s improved so much, it’s crazy to give up like you have.  

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