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Texans “open” to trading pick 3


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25 minutes ago, varjet said:

Pittburgh needs to give the Jets 950 points to move up to 4 in exchange for 20.   

Their 2022 2 is worth 380.  Assume that is what their 2023 1 is worth.  Add the 2022 3 too and call it a day. 

Or they just stay at 20 and take Pickett there.

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14 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I could absolutely see Jax take Neal (to protect TL).  But wouldn't Hutch and Thib (in whatever order) be picked at #2 and #3?  What's the dream scenario in that case?  Aren't those the 3 that are expected to be off the board when we pick?

A QB going top three. 

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

A QB going top three. 

I don't see that happening but how does Neal going to Jax affect that?  Is the idea that Detroit or Houston would've taken Neal but, if he's off the board, they'll take a QB?  

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23 minutes ago, Origen said:

So the kid with huge expectations lived up to them and is expected to go top 2 at most and you think he's not worth it because he hasn't lived up to expectations enough?

I wouldn’t draft him. 

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3 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

The fall off from Thibs and Hutch to the kid from Purdue is not sooo big that I would want to give up any other draft picks to get one of them over the other.  
 

Yes it is. Karlaftis is way overhyped. 
 

in last years draft thib and hutch would have gone around pick 15 and karlaftis would have gone in the 2nd 

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16 minutes ago, slats said:

A QB going top three. 

I think so too. Howell is very similar to Baker mayfield coming out and he went #1. 

Pickett looks like Derek Carr 2.0

Willis is similar to Trey Lance 

Corral is a less talented Zach Wilson 

a team is bound to fall in love with one of them. 

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37 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think this is a pipe dream.  I don't think a QB is going to be taken very high in this draft.  I can't imagine a team trading up this high for what we're told is a mediocre class.  As for the Giants, they're probably sticking with Daniel Jones for at least 1 more year.   If he doesn't work out, they'll figure it out next year.  I think the only way they're moving on from DJ is if they can get Deshaun Jackson or Russel Wilson (someone like that).

i think because this is a mediocre class someone will move up. 

if your Denver sitting at 9 with Carolina at 6th needing someone you might want to get the best QB. there is probably a huge drop off after Pickett and Coral.

you might be right about the Giants but can you trust a new GM and HC not to start over. 

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7 minutes ago, doitny said:

i think because this is a mediocre class someone will move up. 

if your Denver sitting at 9 with Carolina at 6th needing someone you might want to get the best QB. there is probably a huge drop off after Pickett and Coral.

you might be right about the Giants but can you trust a new GM and HC not to start over. 

I don't think GMs are going to outwit themselves.  I would imagine they know Pickett and Coral aren't going to be taken early.

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't think GMs are going to outwit themselves.  I would imagine they know Pickett and Coral aren't going to be taken early.

You overestimate gms. Look at trubiski and Danny dimes. Both were way over drafted 

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2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I don’t know yet to be honest. Oregon guy seems like a flake and the Purdue edge didn’t have great production.

 Neal from Alabama is safe, but how many more linemen can you take? 

it’s cliche but a trade out from 4 right now looks like the best move.

I don’t think there’s evidence anyone is coming up.  I hear you on Thibs, but if he’s there, I don’t think there’s another option.  The always injured corner?

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10 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I don’t think there’s evidence anyone is coming up.  I hear you on Thibs, but if he’s there, I don’t think there’s another option.  The always injured corner?

There’s always an option if you look hard enough or if you’re ok with zagging against draft groupthink.

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The market price to trade up is pretty low since no top QBs in the mix. So I’m guessing the Jets would stand pat if anything trade down but not going to get a big package. But the Jets need bodies at a lot of positions. 

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44 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Dream scenario.  PHI's new GM decides he needs a new QB.  Trades up to #4 to get ahead of the Giants.

With three 1st round picks, they could arguably put two of them together to move up.

#15 and #19 seem just about right.  That leaves us with #10, #15 and #19, which feels like the sweet spot of this draft.

You want pass rush?  Ojabo or Karlaftis should reach #10.  If not, Jemaine Johnson will be there.  You want a WR? Wilson or Burks?  One of them should be available at #15.  You want Dean or Lloyd, #19 should get one.

Then you come back around in round 2 to get your TE and OL.

So many variations that result in 5 premium picks.  

 

Make it so!

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5 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

If Hutchinson or Thibs is there at pick 3 would it be worth trading up for? What would the compensation look like trading up one spot in the draft?

Let’s give them pick 4 for pick 3 and Woody even up.  We’ll throw in Chris as well. 

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42 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

There’s always an option if you look hard enough or if you’re ok with zagging against draft groupthink.

Sure, but what does that look like in 2022, short of trading down for below market?

I don't think you can keep investing in the OL this high.  Do we take a safety after the Jamal Adams debacle?  Maybe you take the other corner, and at 10, the WR with the blown out knee?

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42 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Sure, but what does that look like in 2022, short of trading down for below market?

I don't think you can keep investing in the OL this high.  Do we take a safety after the Jamal Adams debacle?  Maybe you take the other corner, and at 10, the WR with the blown out knee?

I think a bit of an outside the box but not outside the realm of possibility at 4 is Leal from A&M.  He will absolutely destroy the combine.  Eye Popping stuff for 290.  He is probably best suited as a 4-3 DT but similar to JFM can kick outside.  His production was so-so however and some question his motor. 

That said, I could see the Jets talking themselves into that.  Him, JFM, QW and Lawson with Huff as another body, that could be a pretty nasty pass rush if Leal panned out.

I wouldn’t do it.  Nor do I think Leal is a safe pick any team let alone us, but he’s got the athletic ability that is rare.

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54 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Sure, but what does that look like in 2022, short of trading down for below market?

I don't think you can keep investing in the OL this high.  Do we take a safety after the Jamal Adams debacle?  Maybe you take the other corner, and at 10, the WR with the blown out knee?

I think the 2022 version of going against the grain is de-prioritizing positional value.  Two of the best players in terms of overall grade are a Center and a Safety. 

And just to respond to your point... Jamal Adams wasn't a debacle for us.  He was a debacle for SEA.  He was a good player for us who was worth far more than his salary while he was here, and netted us a massive profit on his way out.  Sure, Mahomes or TJ Watt would have been wonderful, but on the flip side, we could be HOU, paying Watson and getting nothing back for him.  All said, not so awful.

Having said that, the past should not dictate the future.  Hamilton might be another Derwin James (sans injury).  This year, where there is really no sure thing in the premium positions, it might make as much sense to take the 'sure thing' at Safety versus the higher-risk CB or Edge.  Or maybe we do overdraft the Center later on.  I'm not saying I'm in favor of it, but I'm not nearly as opposed to it as I might have been in a different year.

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7 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

No one in this draft is worth trading up from 4 to 3.

This is a silly statement. There are 3 prospects so far that have separated themselves above the rest- Thib., Hutch and Neal. The Jets could potentially have interest in all 3. And 3 of those guys would very likely be gone by pick 4 if some trade does not happen for a QB in the top 3- which it won't b/c there aren't any great QBs this year.

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2 hours ago, ZachEY said:

Sure, but what does that look like in 2022, short of trading down for below market?

I don't think you can keep investing in the OL this high.  Do we take a safety after the Jamal Adams debacle?  Maybe you take the other corner, and at 10, the WR with the blown out knee?

You can just take Burks or Wilson at 10.

No torn knee ligaments, please 

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

Dream scenario.  PHI's new GM decides he needs a new QB.  Trades up to #4 to get ahead of the Giants.

With three 1st round picks, they could arguably put two of them together to move up.

#15 and #19 seem just about right.  That leaves us with #10, #15 and #19, which feels like the sweet spot of this draft.

You want pass rush?  Ojabo or Karlaftis should reach #10.  If not, Jemaine Johnson will be there.  You want a WR? Wilson or Burks?  One of them should be available at #15.  You want Dean or Lloyd, #19 should get one.

Then you come back around in round 2 to get your TE and OL.

So many variations that result in 5 premium picks.  

 

LOL Philly will get a QB at 15 if they want one. I predict ONE maybe TWO QBs go top 15. I just don't see a lot of these guys getting drafted early this year. I don't think the Giants will do it with their premium picks I don't think Atl. or Denver will do it. Maybe Washington at 11. And I don't think Philly will do it. They have Hurts and they were a playoff team. 

I could see Pitt at 20 and Det at 27 taking QBs. 

And nobody is trading up into the top 10 for QBs. or top 5. 

 Best bet for trading down is if you are letting a team draft a great WR, O-lineman, Pass Rusher or somehow they love Hamilton and he is still on the board at 10. And frankly, I don't want to trade down in that case- I want to take the lineman or Edge or WR. 

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32 minutes ago, PepPep said:

LOL Philly will get a QB at 15 if they want one. I predict ONE maybe TWO QBs go top 15. I just don't see a lot of these guys getting drafted early this year. I don't think the Giants will do it with their premium picks I don't think Atl. or Denver will do it. Maybe Washington at 11. And I don't think Philly will do it. They have Hurts and they were a playoff team. 

I could see Pitt at 20 and Det at 27 taking QBs. 

And nobody is trading up into the top 10 for QBs. or top 5. 

 Best bet for trading down is if you are letting a team draft a great WR, O-lineman, Pass Rusher or somehow they love Hamilton and he is still on the board at 10. And frankly, I don't want to trade down in that case- I want to take the lineman or Edge or WR. 

They'll get a QB at 15, but they probably won't get Willis (insert another name if you prefer).  If that's who they want, they probably need to go up ahead of ATL at 8 and maybe NYG at 7.  Not saying they want him that badly.  Not saying anyone does.  But there's a lot of stuff happening between now and the draft and there is a chance that one, maybe two of the QBs will become top-10 worthy, despite the fact that they wouldn't have sniffed the top-15 last year.

Still, I would bet against anyone wanting to trade up to #4 for any reason unless one of the two Edges drops, in which case I'd just as soon take them.

Oh...and last.  It was a 'dream' scenario.  

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14 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I think a bit of an outside the box but not outside the realm of possibility at 4 is Leal from A&M.  He will absolutely destroy the combine.  Eye Popping stuff for 290.  He is probably best suited as a 4-3 DT but similar to JFM can kick outside.  His production was so-so however and some question his motor. 

That said, I could see the Jets talking themselves into that.  Him, JFM, QW and Lawson with Huff as another body, that could be a pretty nasty pass rush if Leal panned out.

I wouldn’t do it.  Nor do I think Leal is a safe pick any team let alone us, but he’s got the athletic ability that is rare.

Had not heard of him.  But, at 4, do you want a guy playing a different position?  Sounds like a longshot to actually happen.

14 hours ago, nycdan said:

I think the 2022 version of going against the grain is de-prioritizing positional value.  Two of the best players in terms of overall grade are a Center and a Safety. 

And just to respond to your point... Jamal Adams wasn't a debacle for us.  He was a debacle for SEA.  He was a good player for us who was worth far more than his salary while he was here, and netted us a massive profit on his way out.  Sure, Mahomes or TJ Watt would have been wonderful, but on the flip side, we could be HOU, paying Watson and getting nothing back for him.  All said, not so awful.

Having said that, the past should not dictate the future.  Hamilton might be another Derwin James (sans injury).  This year, where there is really no sure thing in the premium positions, it might make as much sense to take the 'sure thing' at Safety versus the higher-risk CB or Edge.  Or maybe we do overdraft the Center later on.  I'm not saying I'm in favor of it, but I'm not nearly as opposed to it as I might have been in a different year.

I am definitely... definitely... opposed to de-prioritizing positional value.  If you added a top tier safety, and a top tier center to last years team, I still see them as a 4-13 team.  I did a run-down of the playoff teams this year, and the highest drafted safety in the playoffs was in the 2nd round, and I don't even think was on their original team.  Honestly, a GM's job is to find quality safety play on day 3 of the draft - top 10 is a cop-out, and means you need to muster a pass rush or a corner where you're much less likely to find one.

Adams was a debacle for the Seahawks, but our QB room was Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, and Christian Hackenberg, and we took a wildly overrated safety who didn't cause turnovers.  That the Seahawks were dumber doesn't change how bad a draft pick he was.  And sure, Houston's screwed now, but not one single team passed on Watson for fear of him showing his penis around.  Nothing Houston could do about that, and they'll still probably, at some point, get a major draft haul, or, if it weren't for the relationship, reap the benefits of his non-penis related skills.

I think I'd rather take my chances on the CB.  Maybe you go w/ Booth instead, than a safety.  If safety is a problem, we can just convert a corner.  Seems to work for plenty of teams, and even us a bit this year.

13 hours ago, slimjasi said:

You can just take Burks or Wilson at 10.

No torn knee ligaments, please 

No problem.

Seems more people are comfortable w/ options at 10 than 4, which is interesting as the rumors (which, whatever, who knows) are speculating about staying at 4 and trading out of 10.  Maybe more partners at 10, which can help make up for a reach, or a slightly less exciting pick at 4.

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15 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I think a bit of an outside the box but not outside the realm of possibility at 4 is Leal from A&M.  He will absolutely destroy the combine.  Eye Popping stuff for 290.  He is probably best suited as a 4-3 DT but similar to JFM can kick outside.  His production was so-so however and some question his motor. 

That said, I could see the Jets talking themselves into that.  Him, JFM, QW and Lawson with Huff as another body, that could be a pretty nasty pass rush if Leal panned out.

I wouldn’t do it.  Nor do I think Leal is a safe pick any team let alone us, but he’s got the athletic ability that is rare.

I"m starting to think Ekwonu from NC State is in the discussion too.

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19 hours ago, ZachEY said:

I'm curious what your best, and 2nd best case scenario, for the Jets in this draft is.

Personally, I think Ojabo and Walker have more upside than Thibs, I think Hutchinson is the best, but not as good as Chase Young or the Bosa brothers.

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1 minute ago, Claymation said:

Personally, I think Ojabo and Walker have more upside than Thibs, I think Hutchinson is the best, but not as good as Chase Young or the Bosa brothers.

It's not even set in stone Thibs is going top 3 people are just going off mocks...I could see QB late risers and rushers moving ahead of Thibs...I think Hutchinson is the only player in the draft that will definitely be gone at 4.

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23 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Seems more people are comfortable w/ options at 10 than 4, which is interesting as the rumors (which, whatever, who knows) are speculating about staying at 4 and trading out of 10.  Maybe more partners at 10, which can help make up for a reach, or a slightly less exciting pick at 4.

Right, there's also just so much smoke this time of year - hard to know what is real. 

It's worth noting that the Jets have had very few leaks since Douglas arrived. The media has generally been clueless about what the Jets are thinking/doing since then. (e.g. they didn't get an inkling of the Sam Darnold trade until it was filed with the league office.)

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