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I'm warming up to Hamilton. Did someone say he might move to LB?


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12 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I've said in other threads, not striking out with our first four picks is arguably more important than trying to hit homeruns.

+1

But I also think we'd be fools not to ALSO consider Zach Wilson and his vital importance to our future.

As bad as our Defense was, improving it will not win a title.  Offense is king is the NFL.

And Offense is driven by the QB.

IMO we must continue to build around Zach, and for any future replacement for Zach if he can't cut it.

Sadly, we have too many priorities of need. Some of which, we can only hope, are successfully answered via Free Agency for once.  JD's track record on FA's is mostly poop so far.

 

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52 minutes ago, Alka said:

The problem with what you're saying is the following:

1. The Jets signed Davis, the linebacker in the offseason to bolster the defense, and by all indications, he underperformed.

2. The Jets were extremely fortunate to get Quincy Williams, who was let go by the Jags, but as good as he was, I see him right now as a rotational backup player, not a #1 starter.

3. The Jets planted safeties/cornerbacks from college into the linebacker role this past season, and my personal opinion is that it did not work. (so far)

4. The Jets were just awful against the run this year, being around 31st or dead last in run defense.

5. The Jets were counting on Blake Cashman to be a starter at linebacker this past year, but he continued to get injured, and going forward, I don't see him making the team next season.

Linebacker is a desperate need IMHO, and if the Jets can get a solid starter from the 10th, 35th or 38th spot, I just don't see how they could pass it up.

First off - in general, there is absolutely ZERO chance Hamilton is moved to LB or SS.  His single best trait is his insane range and putting him near the LOS would take that away.  Now part of why he is such as good prospect is that he has the size to play in the box on occasion and help in run support but if he is drafted in the top 10 it is to erase the middle of the field.  Playing him at SS would also be the exact situation where Hamilton becomes a "non-premium" position player.

To your point about the defense overall, especially our run defense, was bad not only due to terrible LB and DL play but once we lost Joyner and Maye  we didnt have any talent to play centerfield which caused both safeties to play deeper and hurt the run defense. 

What a team would be expecting to take Hamilton at pick 4 is for him to erase the entire deep middle of the field as Earl Thomas did in this exact defense. That allows the team to play all sorts of defensive combinations if there is a SS like Joyner who can play the slot, blitz and tackle without the constant risk of throwing over the top of the defense.  If you think Hamilton can play at Earl Thomas' level for the next 6-7 years then its reasonable to consider him at 4.

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4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

+1

But I also think we'd be fools not to ALSO consider Zach Wilson and his vital importance to our future.

As bad as our Defense was, improving it will not win a title.  Offense is king is the NFL.

And Offense is driven by the QB.

IMO we must continue to build around Zach, and for any future replacement for Zach is he can't cut it.

Sadly, we have too many priorities of need. Some of which, we can only hope, are successfully answered via Free Agency for once.  JD's track record on FA's is mostly poop so far.

 

I agree. Of our first four picks I would definitely envision spending two on offense and two on defense.

I think you want to walk away from the 2nd round with an EDGE, IOL, WR/TE and another defensive piece.

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Don't overthink it. Assuming there isn't a trade down scenario, keep it simple and take the best available pass rusher at 4. Maybe we get lucky and Thib./Hutch. falls to us, maybe we 'reach' and Karlaftis or Ojabo is the pick. I think any one of those is fine. I'll let JD decide on the talent and Saleh decide on the best fit. They all project to be very good NFL Pros. 

At 10, again, barring a trade, which I can't possibly predict, you take O-line. Ekwonu is my top target at 10. For all intensive purposes he is a Guard in the NFL and should still be available at 10. These guys are always ranked as one of the top linemen and fall because of positional value. The Jets can plug a major hole immediately and take one step closer to completing the O-line rebuild. Ekwonu next to Becton on the right side is the stuff of nightmares for D-lines.  

Rd. 2 a I am taking a TE. Best available TE and my hope is that McBride is still on the board. If not, there are a number of other guys that can be immediate impact players- especially catching the ball. I'm still high on Wydermyer and feel like he can be be an elite playmaker at the position while improving his blocking ability. My guess is that at least one, if not both, will be on the board at 2a. 

The rest of the draft can go a number of ways. We all know our positional needs. It will depend on FA and who is available. 

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Because I believe in positional value.

Now if your argument is that this player is guaranteed to be a 100% sure fire pro bowler who never gets hurt and all the other guys will stink then sure make the pick.

A good not great olineman, Wr, TE, pass rusher, CB, maybe even RB are more important than a good not great safety or lb.

I would say there's room for nuance here.

How much better will this LB be than a pass rusher that can be found in the 2nd round? 

If the best pass rusher at 4 has has second round grade or a G/C that has a late first round grade - or a LB on a team that is in desperate need of LB's has a top 5 pick grade..

I just wonder where that line is that talent overtakes position value.

I'm all for position value and agree - but there is a point where talent/potential surpasses that.  Just where is that line is the question.

 

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If JD is grading players correctly, there is a position value component.  A "great" pass rusher should be valued greater than a "great" safety.  But, even after that value adjustment, it would not be surprising if a player like Hamilton, or Ekwonu, is graded higher than a player like Karlaftis.  

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

This reminds me of 2020 and "there will be #1 WR prospects available for us in the 2nd".

We got Mims.

Oh, he's generational, eh?

It's hard to see taking a chance on a Safety being worthy of pick #4.  

Going Safety, again, in the top 10, while top-tier edge prospects are on the Board would feel very Jetsy to me.

Hey Warfish, so a lot there:

Mims at the time was considered a first round value. Sometimes that doesnt work out but at the time it seemed legit. Also giving him another chance to prove himself after what had to be considered a real drastic season with food poisoning and Covid.

Understand that I am not calling Hamilton generational but others who are professional with research and data to back it are. 

If you could get the career of Ed Reed at #4 would you do it? I think I might

I wouldnt take Hamilton if Thibs and Hutch were on the board but if they are not there it would have to be a consideration, no?

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JD in 2020 drafted players based on their metrics and potential to be very good NFL players.   His 2020 draft is a disaster because those players are not great at football, and they don’t like playing football.  Saleh has intimated as much.

In 2021 JD drafted players that love playing ball and that are smart and have good character.  It shows. 

JD is not going to draft players with physical potential who are not good football players, but with his first two picks he is also not going to draft good football players who don’t have the physical potential to be good NFL players. 

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46 minutes ago, BCJet said:

First off - in general, there is absolutely ZERO chance Hamilton is moved to LB or SS.  His single best trait is his insane range and putting him near the LOS would take that away.  Now part of why he is such as good prospect is that he has the size to play in the box on occasion and help in run support but if he is drafted in the top 10 it is to erase the middle of the field.  Playing him at SS would also be the exact situation where Hamilton becomes a "non-premium" position player.

To your point about the defense overall, especially our run defense, was bad not only due to terrible LB and DL play but once we lost Joyner and Maye  we didnt have any talent to play centerfield which caused both safeties to play deeper and hurt the run defense. 

What a team would be expecting to take Hamilton at pick 4 is for him to erase the entire deep middle of the field as Earl Thomas did in this exact defense. That allows the team to play all sorts of defensive combinations if there is a SS like Joyner who can play the slot, blitz and tackle without the constant risk of throwing over the top of the defense.  If you think Hamilton can play at Earl Thomas' level for the next 6-7 years then its reasonable to consider him at 4.

This is a sound take. I agree, in a vacuum, you could take Hamilton at 4, but that position has to compete with OL, WR, LB, all arguably more important positions. I just can't see taking this guy, on our team, at 4. 

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15 minutes ago, Copernicus said:

Hey Warfish, so a lot there:

Mims at the time was considered a first round value. Sometimes that doesnt work out but at the time it seemed legit. Also giving him another chance to prove himself after what had to be considered a real drastic season with food poisoning and Covid.

Understand that I am not calling Hamilton generational but others who are professional with research and data to back it are. 

If you could get the career of Ed Reed at #4 would you do it? I think I might

I wouldnt take Hamilton if Thibs and Hutch were on the board but if they are not there it would have to be a consideration, no?

Mims is just a good, recent, example of "1st round talent will be available in the 2nd" rarely actually works out that way.  Especially for us.

He's highly regarded, but I cannot find any source as yet that says he is projected to be the best ever at the position.  That was the part I was questioning.

Ed Reed would be great.  Anything less, not so much, especially for this team at this moment in time.  A "just good" safety would be almost worthless to us overall.  He'd have to be Ed Reed to justify the investment, and it's hard seeing that.

Personally, I would not even consider a Safety at #4 or #10.  I am all in on preferring additional investment in the Offense, with a grudging acceptance that an Edge us likely one of the two picks.  But I prefer we focus on Offense, because that is how teams win in the NFL in 2021.  

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2 hours ago, Alka said:

The Jets need a transformational player at #4 for the pick to be worth it.  If Hamilton is not that player, then I agree he should not be the pick.  I just don't know enough about him to comment either way.  

The transformational picks seem to be the 2 edge rushers and Evan Neal, the tackle.  

Who is good enough to be the 4th overall pick, and whomever it is, that player needs to be one that tends not to get injured a lot.  Is Stingley that guy?  I have my doubts.  Another tackle or guard?  Karlaftis?  I just don't know.

Yup! As has been said by many on this board, there's a lot of time left from now until the draft (I think Fields was expected to go #2 overall as the second best QB at this time last year, and he went 11th, 4th QB drafted?)

If two QBs shoot up the board, we may not be drafting at 4.

 

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I’m a big ND fan and he is a really really really good football player. An immediate plug and play impact starter. If we hadn’t done what we did with Jamal, I’d probably be pounding the table for him. 

Wherever he goes, he’ll be an all pro player. If it’s the Jets, so be it.

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Mims is just a good, recent, example of "1st round talent will be available in the 2nd" rarely actually works out that way.  Especially for us.

He's highly regarded, but I cannot find any source as yet that says he is projected to be the best ever at the position.  That was the part I was questioning.

Ed Reed would be great.  Anything less, not so much, especially for this team at this moment in time.  A "just good" safety would be almost worthless to us overall.  He'd have to be Ed Reed to justify the investment, and it's hard seeing that.

Personally, I would not even consider a Safety at #4 or #10.  I am all in on preferring additional investment in the Offense, with a grudging acceptance that an Edge us likely one of the two picks.  But I prefer we focus on Offense, because that is how teams win in the NFL in 2021.  

You are not wrong. How many years have our 2nd round picks failed? I am holding on to hope that Joe Douglas's 2nd round draft choice with HC he chose worked out for us in Elijah Moore (at least for now it looks promising)

This is the link I was referring to: https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft/hot-take-tuesday-kyle-hamilton-is-the-best-safety-prospect-ever coming from Sports Illustrated its not exactly a no name reference

Take it for what its worth, but there are no "Thibs/Hutch are the greatest edge rushers ever" that I've come across

I would not be against/upset with going offense at #4 and #10 either

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3 hours ago, JiFapono said:

It's very early, the season isnt even over yet so there stands a lot to change between now and the draft.  I could see Kenny Pickett shooting up draft boards, if Matt Corral injury checks out, him too, so it's very hard to predict how the next 3 months play out especially before Free Agency starts.  That said, IMO there are at least 5 players worthy of the 4th overall pick as it stands today that all play premium positions that I would absolutely prioritize over safety: Thibs, Hutch, Neal, (maybe Ojabo), Ekwono and/or Andrew Booth/Derek Stingley - all top 10, all premium, all maximize value of the pick.

You also have to remember; they have 2 picks in the top of the 2nd.  Guys like Lewis Cine and Jaquan Brisker could be had, and I dont see them a huge fall off from Hamilton.

 

 

Ojabo and Hutchinson both scare the piss out of me. When you tell me that the 2 EDGE on one team are elite Top 10 picks it makes me wonder if they are just elevating each other and both are really 2nd round guys.

I get that you prioritize CB over S, but I am not so sure Saleh and JD feel the same. Safety has always been a huge focus in Seattle and let's face it when you consider salary and draft picks Seattle invested WAY more in Adams than we would in Hamilton. I dont see us taking 1st round corners ever but expect us to take a safety at some point.

This is not my opinion, just thoughts on what I think the Jets FO will think.

In terms of the OL for third year in a row situation, our OL is much more unsettled than people think. Fant has 1 year left. Moses likely leaves. LDT leaves or goes back for more doctor work. Becton is a gigantic ????? if we pass on Ekwono or Neal this draft our OL could be much worse next year and decimated the year after.

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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

It's not Adams.  It's positional value.  Safety is not worth pick #4.

Looking at ESPN's 2022 Draft Class ranking, I see plenty of options for us at #4 and #10.

Ranked Player
NAME POS HT WT SCHOOL GRADEin.gif DRAFTED BY PK(OVR) OVR RANKin.gif
Aidan Hutchinson news_icon.gif DE   0 Michigan 94     1
Kayvon Thibodeauxnews_icon.gif DE   0 Oregon 94     2
Evan Nealnews_icon.gif OT   0 Alabama 94     3
Derek Stingley Jr.news_icon.gif CB 6'1" 195 LSU 94     4
Kyle Hamiltonnews_icon.gif S   0 Notre Dame 94     5
Jameson Williamsnews_icon.gif WR   0 Alabama 94     6
DeMarvin Lealnews_icon.gif DE   0 Texas A&M 93     7
Nakobe Deannews_icon.gif ILB   0 Georgia 93     8
Garrett Wilsonnews_icon.gif WR   0 Ohio State 92     9
Charles Crossnews_icon.gif OT 6'5" 310 Mississippi State 92     10
David Ojabonews_icon.gif OLB 6'5" 250 Michigan 92     11
Drake Londonnews_icon.gif WR   0 USC 92     12
Tyler Linderbaumnews_icon.gif C 6'3" 290 Iowa 91     13
Travon Walkernews_icon.gif DE   0 Georgia 91     14
Ahmad Gardnernews_icon.gif CB 6'2" 188 Cincinnati 91     15
Kenny Pickett news_icon.gif QB   0 Pittsburgh 90     16
Matt Corralnews_icon.gif QB   0 Ole Miss 90     17
Devin Lloydnews_icon.gif ILB   0 Utah 90     18
George Karlaftisnews_icon.gif DE   0 Purdue 90     19
Roger McCreary news_icon.gif CB   0 Auburn 90     20
Ikem Ekwonunews_icon.gif OG 6'4" 320 NC State 90     21
Chris Olave news_icon.gif WR   0 Ohio State 90     22
Andrew Booth Jr.news_icon.gif CB   0 Clemson 90     23
Jahan Dotson news_icon.gif WR   0 Penn State 90     24
Kaiir Elamnews_icon.gif CB   0 Florida 90     25
Jordan Davis news_icon.gif DT   0 Georgia 90     26
Malik Willisnews_icon.gif QB   0 Liberty 89     27
Trevor Penningnews_icon.gif OT   0 Northern Iowa 89     28
Treylon Burksnews_icon.gif WR 6'3" 225 Arkansas 89     29
Trey McBride news_icon.gif TE   0 Colorado State 89     30
Cameron Thomasnews_icon.gif DE   0 San Diego State 88     31
Nicholas Petit-Frerenews_icon.gif OT   0 Ohio State 88     32

 

It's not just positional value. Look through this thread and see how many posts mention Jamal Adams as a reason not to take Hamilton. Also positional value doesn't mean anything if Hamilton turns out to be great. 

Assuming Neal, Thibs & Hutch are gone, who are you taking at 4 from the above list?

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10 minutes ago, Larz said:

Edge, OT

anything else is over thinking it

Ok so your ready to take karaftis over hamilton. Hamilton might be the best football player in this draft and a top 15 in any other draft year. . Karaftis might be a second rounder in any other draft.

 

So blindly taking edge due to need you might wind up with another JAG while Hamilton plays in the pro bowl and gets rookie of the year consideration. Not sure why this is sound logic.......

It seems to me that many posters here would be happier with an average edge vs an excellent safety.idk

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7 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I swear to all of you right now that if we draft a safety at 4 I will write two very snarky posts about the absurdity of that and then move the **** on with my life. Don't test me on this I promise you.

calm down tiger

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Reminder; a playoff team signed a safety off the street to start in a playoff game last weekend. There is no scarcity at the S position. You can get a decent safety free agent without destroying your cap. There is no breakdown of Hamilton that puts him in the class of Reed, Taylor, Polamalu nor Lott. Taking a safety over WR, TE, edge, corner or OL is DUMB.  And sadly completely typical for this franchise.

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Again, this board needs to stop obsessing with draft position.

Its a weird draft........almost cursed to be picking at 4 and 10. 

12 and 20 would be easier and far less dramatic.

Bottom line is we need 4 good starters with our 4 first picks. We cant blow this..... 

I am just suggesting that Hamilton, WR and edge Jermaine from FSU might work out better than  Ojabu/Karlaftis, WR and ::insert 2a pick::  for our first 3 picks.

In the end who cares when we took a certain player as long as they contribute big time

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1 hour ago, bgivs21 said:

Look through this thread and see how many posts mention Jamal Adams as a reason not to take Hamilton.

Sorry, was speaking for myself only.

Quote

 Also positional value doesn't mean anything if Hamilton turns out to be great.

Sort of a meaningless point, positional value doesn't mean anything if whomever we pick turns out to be great.  Unless it;s a Kicker or Punter or something, lol.

Quote

Assuming Neal, Thibs & Hutch are gone, who are you taking at 4 from the above list?

Don't know, far too early for me to start setting opinions in stone. That list will change before draft day.

I'd like alot more Offense (as everyone knows, I think offense, not Defense, is the key to a return to a fun competitive team). 

And I think that as much as I doubt Wilson's future, we need to do everything possible to support him and enable him to succeed.

As such, I want elite-talent at WR.  I want more and better O-linemen.  I want a TE that actually serves the role modern high-end TE's serve, lol.  I even want a 2nd RB to pair with Carter.

So looking at that list, if Edge is gone by pick #4, I would go with Evan Neal OT Alabama (presumes Moses does not resigned, which I don't think he will).  I would consider Garrett Wilson and/or Jameson Williams at #4 as well, and at #10 if they're there.

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If we take Hamilton I will throw a TV through a glass table--and this has nothing to do with "Prez".

S is not a position to spend prime draft capital and it is NOT the position to hand out a big money contract 4 years from now.

We draft this guy, regardless of how good he is, he's going to walk.

We have all the new FAs this year on 3-4 year contracts plus last years draft class to take care of.

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