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I'm warming up to Hamilton. Did someone say he might move to LB?


HighPitch
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2 hours ago, HighPitch said:

You dont know what youre talking about.

jets biggest weakness is inability to tackle. This kid takes the right angle and tackles
 

another jet problems is no turnovers. This kid will cause turnovers. Turnovers help wins.

 

seriously what are you going to say if your overrated pass rusher stinks and this kid excels? 
 

theres a better chance that hamilton becomes a great player than ojabu/karaftis

I loved hearing this sh*t about Jamal too.  Good times.

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Positional value is all well and good, but individual player evaluations and projections should be the driving factor in determining who to pick (IMHO).

Although the actual process is far more nuanced than this, I think it captures both sides of the discussion (positional value vs talent).

Let's assume a binary situation for #4 - Karlaftis or Hamilton. And all comparisons below are purely hypothetical to support the discussion - I'm not claiming any of these guys are going to be any of their comparatives.

If the evaluations are that Karlaftis is the next JJ Watt and Hamilton is the next Ed Reed, in my view you take Karlaftis - top Edge  player trumps top Safety. Nice and easy to start with.

If the evaluations are that Karlaftis' ceiling is the next JJ Watt but his floor is the next Vernon Gholston, and Hamilton's ceiling is the next Ed Reed but his floor is the next Calvin Pryor, again in my view you take Karlaftis - top Edge player trumps top Safety, and both have the same "OMG what were they thinking" bust potential.

Now let's make it a bit trickier. Karlaftis is the next Calvin Pace / Bryan Thomas, Hamilton is the next Ed Reed. Pace and Thomas were both good / OK players, long term starters, but neither were considered great, like Reed was at his position. Great safety vs. good / OK Edge? Harder to pick - personally I'd rather have the great player (but I understand that other opinions are available and equally as valid). And that is in the context of me seeing Edge as our #1 need to upgrade this offseason.

I could post many more floor / ceiling options here but I don't think that would further the discussion. And of course - all this comes down to projection and guesswork, no one knows in advance how these guys will actually play out.

 

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9 hours ago, greenwave81 said:

If Hamilton is a ‘generational talent’ why is he going 4 th to us?  Do others not see his ‘generational talent’ too?

here’s an idea…if he’s all that, ‘ generational talent’ and all, then obtain a ‘generational talents’ worth of DPs and trade back. 

The time to take a generational talent S at 4 overall is when you some semblance of a pass rush, WRs and a stout OL already. 

The article writer does state that he believes Hamilton should be considered at the #1 overall pick.

If he truly is everything that the article claims, you take him - or rather you STEAL him - at 4 and don't look back.

But I have a hard time reading the article and not thinking "I've heard all this before ... every year". A generational unicorn with no-one to compare him against ... hmmm. Maybe. Maybe not. Glad it's not my job to decide. :D  

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16 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Ojabo and Hutchinson both scare the piss out of me. When you tell me that the 2 EDGE on one team are elite Top 10 picks it makes me wonder if they are just elevating each other and both are really 2nd round guys.

I get that you prioritize CB over S, but I am not so sure Saleh and JD feel the same. Safety has always been a huge focus in Seattle and let's face it when you consider salary and draft picks Seattle invested WAY more in Adams than we would in Hamilton. I dont see us taking 1st round corners ever but expect us to take a safety at some point.

This is not my opinion, just thoughts on what I think the Jets FO will think.

In terms of the OL for third year in a row situation, our OL is much more unsettled than people think. Fant has 1 year left. Moses likely leaves. LDT leaves or goes back for more doctor work. Becton is a gigantic ????? if we pass on Ekwono or Neal this draft our OL could be much worse next year and decimated the year after.

I can understand that worry but I dont really see anyone mocking Ojabo top 10.  That was my hot take based on how he tests.  The point I was trying to make is after the top 4 are off the board, I think everyone is in the reach category so why not reach for a premium position freak-a-zoid. 

Personally, I think this is all for nothing because I dont see the coaching staff prioritizing the secondary that high for either position.  That said, I dont think the Seattle references are relevant.  Saleh wasnt even on the coaching staff when they took Earl Thomas 14th overall (fyi, he had 8 INT's his last year in college, Hamilton did have 8 in his career).  He arrived the following season (as defensive quality control) and what did they do in the draft?  OL early and 3 DB's in a row in the 5th/6th rounds.  

As much as I dont love the idea of OL early, I'm good with a T for the reasons you've stated.  It's not my preference but I could see scenarios where its the best pick.

 

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12 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

Trevor Lawrence says hi.

Hey Spoot, thanks for the response, I get it, let me start with I am far from a know it all, and initially when I read and heard content calling  Kyle Hamilton "generational" I cringed and went to a negative place in my head. Then compound it with Jamal Adams and the safety position and I was like "no FN way." When listening to people I trust like @Green Bean ,Frankie From Flatbush and Boy Green content I started warming up to the idea of it. If the hype is true about Hamilton and he is the best prospect at the position in 20 years (or ever like some suggest) and we dont take him because we think Trevor Lawrence is not  generational or in a short window example doesnt seem to be and because we got burned by Jamal Adams well that is a real short minded thing to do. I would suggest doing some additional research (if you havent already). It at the very least opened my mind to it.  Ultimately I trust Douglas and Saleh. So much to dissect 

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24 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I can understand that worry but I dont really see anyone mocking Ojabo top 10.  That was my hot take based on how he tests.  The point I was trying to make is after the top 4 are off the board, I think everyone is in the reach category so why not reach for a premium position freak-a-zoid. 

Personally, I think this is all for nothing because I dont see the coaching staff prioritizing the secondary that high for either position.  That said, I dont think the Seattle references are relevant.  Saleh wasnt even on the coaching staff when they took Earl Thomas 14th overall (fyi, he had 8 INT's his last year in college, Hamilton did have 8 in his career).  He arrived the following season (as defensive quality control) and what did they do in the draft?  OL early and 3 DB's in a row in the 5th/6th rounds.  

As much as I dont love the idea of OL early, I'm good with a T for the reasons you've stated.  It's not my preference but I could see scenarios where its the best pick.

 

if the jets go D at 4 it is most definitely a pass rusher if one is close on their board.  it's such a glaring need and they actually had some good dbs taken in last year's draft.  whether it's karlafis or ojabu or hutch, it seems likely that's where we're going at 4 assuming we don't trade back and that will be difficult this year.  my prediction is that post combine ojabu jumps into the top 5 consideration as he should test very well.

at 10 it opens up both to trading back and positional considerations.  that's probably where it gets interesting.

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Like many have already stated, unless Hamilton is Sean Taylor/Ed Reed, then there is no taking him at 4. Lest we forget that we took Zach Wilson at #2 last year. This offseason should be about trying to fill as many holes on defense via FA. There are very good offensive players in this years draft on the OL and skill positions. That should be the focus at #4 and 10. Either of those spots should be OL and WR. This offense needs to grow together and be together for the next 3-5 years.

Our problem is that the Giants will certainly draft OL in one if not both of their spots with 5 and/or 7. If that's the case, then I'd wait until 10 to grab the WR (Burks). Use our first 2nd rounder on the best TE on the board, unless he's already been picked, then grab the best LB, but all things being equal, TE then LB.

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11 hours ago, greenwave81 said:

If Hamilton is a ‘generational talent’ why is he going 4 th to us?  Do others not see his ‘generational talent’ too?

here’s an idea…if he’s all that, ‘ generational talent’ and all, then obtain a ‘generational talents’ worth of DPs and trade back. 

The time to take a generational talent S at 4 overall is when you some semblance of a pass rush, WRs and a stout OL already. 

You make a great point and I believe me I am not 100% on board with it, however there are some simulated mocks that I have used that have Hamilton going #2, #3 overall. I also see on some big boards he is in the top 4 or 5. This leads me to believe that it is not such a reach. Let's say the draft goes Hutch, Thibs, Neal, and we are sitting at #4 with no trade options. Do we take the 3d best option at Edge when there will be similar talent at #10 and in the second round? The second best Tackle when we have invested in OLINE in the last 2 drafts and our OLINE played well (when healthy) the second half of the year? Wr when presently they seem to be all bunched up talent wise with no clear top guy? Or take a player that some are saying is "generational" and universally on Big Boards in the 4-8 range? Just something to think about. 

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Youre the same guy that smugly battled me about a gimmicky air raid qb known as patrick mahomes.
how did that turn out genius?
I would pay any amount of money to see what a catastrophic failure Maholmes would have been on this team.

.... Richard Todd, Ken OBrien, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Genope, Sam Darnold ...

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15 hours ago, the Claw said:

I’m not saying that taking Hamilton is the answer, but the top end talent in this draft is about three or four guys deep. If the Jets don’t take one of those guys, they are reaching anyway. I would take the higher end talent. It’s not like the Jets were great at defending the middle of the field. Hamilton could be an awesome player for this team. 

15 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

S is not a position to spend prime draft capital and it is NOT the position to hand out a big money contract 4 years from now.

We draft this guy, regardless of how good he is, he's going to walk.

These are both such compelling arguments to me.   The one thing I'd say to Peace Frog is that, if Hamilton is really good, we could trade him the same way we traded Jamal.  Otoh, how does 2 years of Hamilton followed by trading him improve the team's chance to win a SB?  Maybe if we get the same type of package we got for Jamal  (which I'm not overly confident we'd get).  But even that would be a "push the window further down the road" type move.  Could be good btw (Dallas built up a dynasty kind of that way).  But it's thinking an awful lot of steps ahead (which is very difficult to do).  Otoh, maybe we just have to take a good player now and let the chips fall where they may.

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2 hours ago, jamesr said:

Positional value is all well and good, but individual player evaluations and projections should be the driving factor in determining who to pick (IMHO).

Although the actual process is far more nuanced than this, I think it captures both sides of the discussion (positional value vs talent).

Let's assume a binary situation for #4 - Karlaftis or Hamilton. And all comparisons below are purely hypothetical to support the discussion - I'm not claiming any of these guys are going to be any of their comparatives.

If the evaluations are that Karlaftis is the next JJ Watt and Hamilton is the next Ed Reed, in my view you take Karlaftis - top Edge  player trumps top Safety. Nice and easy to start with.

If the evaluations are that Karlaftis' ceiling is the next JJ Watt but his floor is the next Vernon Gholston, and Hamilton's ceiling is the next Ed Reed but his floor is the next Calvin Pryor, again in my view you take Karlaftis - top Edge player trumps top Safety, and both have the same "OMG what were they thinking" bust potential.

Now let's make it a bit trickier. Karlaftis is the next Calvin Pace / Bryan Thomas, Hamilton is the next Ed Reed. Pace and Thomas were both good / OK players, long term starters, but neither were considered great, like Reed was at his position. Great safety vs. good / OK Edge? Harder to pick - personally I'd rather have the great player (but I understand that other opinions are available and equally as valid). And that is in the context of me seeing Edge as our #1 need to upgrade this offseason.

I could post many more floor / ceiling options here but I don't think that would further the discussion. And of course - all this comes down to projection and guesswork, no one knows in advance how these guys will actually play out.

 

Excellent post. My sentiments also. I was very much against the (early) thought of taking Hamilton at #4. I thought the same as many: "A safety at #4? That's a luxury. Generational? Yeah heard that before" But then I dug a little deeper and I am more open minded about the thought of Hamilton ant #4 for similar reasoning in your post. I am not married to the idea of Hamilton at #4, just open minded about it (currently) 

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1 minute ago, Copernicus said:

Excellent post. My sentiments also. I was very much against the (early) thought of taking Hamilton at #4. I thought the same as many: "A safety at #4? That's a luxury. Generational? Yeah heard that before" But then I dug a little deeper and I am more open minded about the thought of Hamilton ant #4 for similar reasoning in your post. I am not married to the idea of Hamilton at #4, just open minded about it (currently) 

believing you're going to take a generational player at any position is a bad way to justify a selection, particularly at a non premium position.  

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13 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

believing you're going to take a generational player at any position is a bad way to justify a selection, particularly at a non premium position.  

I would agree. For argument sake, let's say the draft goes Hutch, Thibs, Neal, and we are sitting at #4 with no trade options. Do we take the 3d best option at Edge in Karlaftis when most of the draft information speculates there will be similar talent at #10 and even in the second round? Do we take the second best Tackle when we have invested first round picks in OLINE in the last 2 drafts and our OLINE played well (when healthy) the second half of the year? Wr at #4 seems really high with this group considering they seem to be all bunched up talent wise with no clear top guy? Hamilton universally is on just about every Big Boards in the 4-8 range. Things will change so much over the next several months but if we had to pick today what would you do? 

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26 minutes ago, Copernicus said:

Excellent post. My sentiments also. I was very much against the (early) thought of taking Hamilton at #4. I thought the same as many: "A safety at #4? That's a luxury. Generational? Yeah heard that before" But then I dug a little deeper and I am more open minded about the thought of Hamilton ant #4 for similar reasoning in your post. I am not married to the idea of Hamilton at #4, just open minded about it (currently) 

This is exactly it. I hated the idea earlier in the season, but as players started separating themselves I started to realize that this draft just seemed a bit different than others. No one seemed to really stand out in the high value positions and dudes who are in consideration at 4 seemed very milk-toast to me. Thibs was always going to be the top prospect and Hutch had a solid year, same with Neal but outside of them, only one player seemed to jump off the screen at me. A frickin safety. The idea makes my teeth itch, but Hamilton is way more talented than Karlaftis or Ojabo. I just think that clinging to a philosophy without considering the whole is exactly what Mac did and look where that got them. 

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20 minutes ago, Copernicus said:

I would agree. For argument sake, let's say the draft goes Hutch, Thibs, Neal, and we are sitting at #4 with no trade options. Do we take the 3d best option at Edge in Karlaftis when most of the draft information speculates there will be similar talent at #10 and even in the second round? Do we take the second best Tackle when we have invested first round picks in OLINE in the last 2 drafts and our OLINE played well (when healthy) the second half of the year? Wr at #4 seems really high with this group considering they seem to be all bunched up talent wise with no clear top guy? Hamilton universally is on just about every Big Boards in the 4-8 range. Things will change so much over the next several months but if we had to pick today what would you do? 

i think if the board is close, take the BAP pass rusher and move on.  this would be a prime example of where positional value matters.  take a guy who you think will be a pretty good pass rusher or better over a safety or guard or ILB.  the draft is often looked at in a vacuum, but in reality, you're taking players who you think will win you games.  if ojabu is a good but not great pass rusher, that's a much better draft outcome than taking a guy like hamilton who if he does not turn out to be extremely good, will have been a bad pick.  also the nfl is not like it was when revis was dominating, the value of one really good cb isn't what it was.  

when we watch jet games, what are the things that bother us most?  1) wilson sucking, 2) the OL sucking, 3) no pass rush, 4) no good wrs.  That's how I see it.  So if that's the truth, you build the OL and pass rush, get weapons and hope wilson is the real deal.

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5 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

100%. The Jets need to field a functional offense. Safety does nothing for their win total next season. 

 

I guess, but I don't see what they could do at 4 that will help them field a functional offense, unless they're able to trade down.

If Hutchinson or Thibodeaux shake loose to 4, I doubt any of us will be worrying about the offense.

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7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i think if the board is close, take the BAP pass rusher and move on.  this would be a prime example of where positional value matters.  take a guy who you think will be a pretty good pass rusher or better over a safety or guard or ILB.  the draft is often looked at in a vacuum, but in reality, you're taking players who you think will win you games.  if ojabu is a good but not great pass rusher, that's a much better draft outcome than taking a guy like hamilton who if he does not turn out to be extremely good, will have been a bad pick.  also the nfl is not like it was when revis was dominating, the value of one really good cb isn't what it was.  

when we watch jet games, what are the things that bother us most?  1) wilson sucking, 2) the OL sucking, 3) no pass rush, 4) no good wrs.  That's how I see it.  So if that's the truth, you build the OL and pass rush, get weapons and hope wilson is the real deal.

Excellent post Aug. I like this reasoning and if Karlaftis is the pick I wont be shedding tears for Hamilton believe me. Karlaftis is a unique beast with a high end motor and I love that at Purdue he was  seemingly "the only guy" on that line. Ojabu, while a super athletic freak, had the luxury of Hutchinson next to him and I at least give a little pause with choosing him at #4 (today).  I am fascinated how crazy this off season is in the sense that last year at this time at the very least we could pretty much determine that the Jets would be taking a QB. Then definitely after Darnald was traded. This year can go in any direction. Thanks for your well thought out response

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14 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i think if the board is close, take the BAP pass rusher and move on.  this would be a prime example of where positional value matters.  take a guy who you think will be a pretty good pass rusher or better over a safety or guard or ILB.  the draft is often looked at in a vacuum, but in reality, you're taking players who you think will win you games.  if ojabu is a good but not great pass rusher, that's a much better draft outcome than taking a guy like hamilton who if he does not turn out to be extremely good, will have been a bad pick.  also the nfl is not like it was when revis was dominating, the value of one really good cb isn't what it was.  

when we watch jet games, what are the things that bother us most?  1) wilson sucking, 2) the OL sucking, 3) no pass rush, 4) no good wrs.  That's how I see it.  So if that's the truth, you build the OL and pass rush, get weapons and hope wilson is the real deal.

Yes. The time that passes between the last game and the draft is where Jets fans convince themselves the team can draft the consensus “BAP”. And then we wonder why the offense looks like a clogged toilet in September. Touchdown scorers and pass rushers in round 1.

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2 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

 

I guess, but I don't see what they could do at 4 that will help them field a functional offense, unless they're able to trade down.

If Hutchinson or Thibodeaux shake loose to 4, I doubt any of us will be worrying about the offense.

The only two picks that should be considered at 4 and 10 are a pass rusher or playmaker…and maybe OT if it falls that way. Safety is absurd.

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2 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

 

I guess, but I don't see what they could do at 4 that will help them field a functional offense, unless they're able to trade down.

If Hutchinson or Thibodeaux shake loose to 4, I doubt any of us will be worrying about the offense.

I am justifying going defense helps support Zach in the sense that the defense "should" be off the field more and less playing from behind which seemed to be always with how bad our defense most times this season

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9 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I loved hearing this sh*t about Jamal too.  Good times.

Funny thing is....you were actually one of the voices saying that sh*t about Jamal.  The internet *never* forgets :)

On 4/27/2017 at 8:53 PM, Mogglez said:

F*CK. YES.

I love Adams.

 

On 4/28/2017 at 5:15 AM, Mogglez said:

Much much much more than a box safety.

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13 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Yes. The time that passes between the last game and the draft is where Jets fans convince themselves the team can draft the consensus “BAP”. And then we wonder why the offense looks like a clogged toilet in September. Touchdown scorers and pass rushers in round 1.

the concept of BAP matters most to guys like mccagnan who would rather draft a stat monger like adams to justify keeping his job by saying 'look who i drafted, adams is an all pro.'  so far douglas seems to understand positional value in the early rounds, so i'm encouraged at least in this regard.

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2 hours ago, Obrien2Toon said:

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Tbf though, I bet there have been similar comments (criticisms) made of other draft prospects who ended up being HOF'ers.  I mean, who could've ever seen TB12 turning into what he has from his blubbery draft photo.

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9 hours ago, ryu79 said:

This could be Ed Reed or Taylor... Does anyone want to live with this message board all summer if we draft a Safety at 4? 

Yikes. 

He's not, this has to stop.  He's not even Derwin James, he's not even Minkah Fitzpartick....he's not Earl Thomas.  He's a box safety that tackles well and doesnt create turnovers (look at his picks, they're tips or terribly thrown balls).  No sacks, no forced fumbles.  He's a tackling machince, very little value in that at #4 overall. 

In comparison: Taylor had 12 picks in his career, 5 his senior season (12 his career), he had 114 tackles in 1 season.  Hamilton has 138 tackles and 8 picks in his career.  Ed Reed had 21 career INT's and 4 TD's.  Earl Thomas has as many tackles and more picks in 2 seasons, than Hamilton has in 3.   

These comparisons have to stop.  It's ridiculous at this point.

 

 

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Just so that we are clear: This thread seems to have shifted from me "warming up" to Hamilton to me now defending the pick.

 

Thats not where I 'm at. I have WARMED UP. I would not go ballistic if we snagged him like I would have last month.

 

Ultimately my personal choice is : EDGE, WR, OT, TE

 

But the worst worst worst worst pick would be the often injured stingley!

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