Mel Kipers Full Mock Draft 1.0

[derp]

12 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Don't take it personally. I don't keep close track of which 75% of the website thinks we should draft a center #10 (if not #4). There are a lot of posters here.

Yeah I remember the edge thing, and a couple months back I didn't think he'd go for it (in the very next draft after forking over notable contracts for C.Lawson and then JFM), but now I'm thinking he might, if for no other reason than he sees JFM didn't have the stellar pass-rushing season he looked like he was about to have, and after 1 year the guarantees expire anyway.

Also yes edge-edge does have an inherent mess, in that we'd be burning twin top-10 picks that will necessarily mean at least one of them is on the bench instead of starting, and that's a bit much for any team - particularly one with as many needs as this one has - when it's already got two edges/ends under contract at $13-14MM apiece (whatever it is), even if both are cuttable a year later.

But there are other high-dollar positions that are available other than edge. Question is which is easier for a GM to swallow: reaching a few slots based on prospect ranking, or reaching in terms of prospect value? I think the former...unless he's a bust lol.

No worries, I don’t take it personally. You and I are both rather verbose posters so when there’s a mixup it can really take the back and forth - which I generally enjoy, thus why I engage - off the rails.

I think you hit the nail on the head with the Lawson-JFM issue with adding on the edge. Conceptually I think they want Lawson-JFM-designated pass rusher so even though there’s a “backup”, because JFM kicks inside so much the third end plays a ton of snaps doing something important (rushing the passer) and is functionally a very high value role. That’s something they could use short term - and also long-term as Lawson has only two years left plus who knows how he comes back from injury. Very clean fit there. The second one gets messier.

I think where things get derailed for me is the other high dollar position thing. Those positions for the Jets are either filled with high capital allocation question marks already (QB, LT, DT), positions where the guys who get paid a ton get used differently than the Jets’ scheme (CB), or have crazy high bust rates early (WR). I’d get excited about a WR but it doesn’t make it a good pick - Douglas also has hit that on day 2 pretty hard so I wonder if he’s looking for that Steelers type approach.

But when I say it’s messy that’s what I’m getting at. Compound that with a weak draft class and there already being another top ten pick they’re almost forced to do something that doesn’t really make sense with a top ten pick for one reason or another.

[Coffee Is Great]

I don't want to draft a safety in the Top 10 ever again, I don't care what potential versatility they have or what they might be at LB at the next level.

[Sperm Edwards]

35 minutes ago, derp said:

No worries, I don’t take it personally. You and I are both rather verbose posters so when there’s a mixup it can really take the back and forth - which I generally enjoy, thus why I engage - off the rails.

I think you hit the nail on the head with the Lawson-JFM issue with adding on the edge. Conceptually I think they want Lawson-JFM-designated pass rusher so even though there’s a “backup”, because JFM kicks inside so much the third end plays a ton of snaps doing something important (rushing the passer) and is functionally a very high value role. That’s something they could use short term - and also long-term as Lawson has only two years left plus who knows how he comes back from injury. Very clean fit there. The second one gets messier.

I think where things get derailed for me is the other high dollar position thing. Those positions for the Jets are either filled with high capital allocation question marks already (QB, LT, DT), positions where the guys who get paid a ton get used differently than the Jets’ scheme (CB), or have crazy high bust rates early (WR). I’d get excited about a WR but it doesn’t make it a good pick - Douglas also has hit that on day 2 pretty hard so I wonder if he’s looking for that Steelers type approach.

But when I say it’s messy that’s what I’m getting at. Compound that with a weak draft class and there already being another top ten pick they’re almost forced to do something that doesn’t really make sense with a top ten pick for one reason or another.

Cool, I'm enjoying this, too. 

No doubt about WR having high early bust rates, but so do other positions that merely don't seem like it because they're not taken early very often.

• TE inside the top 30 has a worse success rate than WR; 
• [ok I won't mention center again];
• there have been some high pick guards that were major flops (two in 2013's top-10 alone);
• a year later three tackles were taken in round 1 and the worst of the bunch by a long-shot was the highest-picked one at #2 (Robinson), and there are plenty of other 1st round tackle whiffs (by skill, not for Becton's excuses);
• high pick corners are all over the place in terms of success/bust rates (is the next high pick one Jalen Ramsey or Justin Gilbert?)

I think the way the board looks today, in the absence of a good trade-down opportunity, they almost have to look to edge with one of the picks and hope the one they get isn't the next Solomon Thomas or Clelin Ferrell. Will he? I don't know. 

I think they'll really want to find their next WR starter in the draft not FA. With Davis/Moore already locked in for 2022 (before whomever they sign/re-sign in FA), while everyone hates draft whiffs, the Jets are in a good position to take a shot at WR and still have 2+ good or better WR starters even without the rookie panning out (if Davis bounces back). That's also why I think they'll go TE in FA, if they can, so they don't have to start a rookie TE while also having pressure to start a rookie WR. Or anyway, they won't ONLY look to the draft for TEs, but I don't expect to see a high pick TE unless the FA added is a real yawner.

[derp]

26 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Cool, I'm enjoying this, too. 

No doubt about WR having high early bust rates, but so do other positions that merely don't seem like it because they're not taken early very often.

• TE inside the top 30 has a worse success rate than WR; 
• [ok I won't mention center again];
• there have been some high pick guards that were major flops (two in 2013's top-10 alone);
• a year later three tackles were taken in round 1 and the worst of the bunch by a long-shot was the highest-picked one at #2 (Robinson), and there are plenty of other 1st round tackle whiffs (by skill, not for Becton's excuses);
• high pick corners are all over the place in terms of success/bust rates (is the next high pick one Jalen Ramsey or Justin Gilbert?)

I think the way the board looks today, in the absence of a good trade-down opportunity, they almost have to look to edge with one of the picks and hope the one they get isn't the next Solomon Thomas or Clelin Ferrell. Will he? I don't know. 

I think they'll really want to find their next WR starter in the draft not FA. With Davis/Moore already locked in for 2022 (before whomever they sign/re-sign in FA), while everyone hates draft whiffs, the Jets are in a good position to take a shot at WR and still have 2+ good or better WR starters even without the rookie panning out (if Davis bounces back). That's also why I think they'll go TE in FA, if they can, so they don't have to start a rookie TE while also having pressure to start a rookie WR. Or anyway, they won't ONLY look to the draft for TEs, but I don't expect to see a high pick TE unless the FA added is a real yawner.

Draft class wise this one is kind of easy in that TE-RB aren’t even in play at 10 due to talent, safety won’t be with 10 (the discussion is really 4), there’s the DL and OL issues we’ve discussed, then WR, corner, or LB. So it’s essentially do you overdo one of the lines, take a position with a high bust rate, or take a position the defense doesn’t seem to value so much.

The bust rate discussion kind of gets back to the idea that the move is linemen (on both sides of the ball) early. The big issue with the Jets’ recent history is the most important ones - and the ones you can’t have too many of - are the edge defenders and that’s what they haven’t done at all.

I have waffled on the receiver thing, which gets back to the most important part of their decision making - Zach Wilson. Very weird situation for a prospect. In an era a lot of guys have had early impacts or sat and then played well right away he showed improvement in some areas as a rookie but that also took away from his strengths. Does that progress give hope he can be a franchise QB? Because if there’s a magic button they can push to accomplish that it’s worth whatever draft, money capital they can toss at it.

Receiver I’ve had two ideas rattling around in my head after starting where you are (good situation to draft a guy). One is that in order to benefit Wilson they really need that impact day one. Two is they need specifically need guys who can win against man coverage. If they can trade a pick outside the first two rounds for Amari Cooper (Dallas is in a meh cap situation and Jones seems annoyed with him) that’s not bad. He’s overpaid but young, three years left on the deal, cuttable, Jets have cap space and keep draft capital, and I think he’s a scheme fit. The other is if Calvin Ridley checks out with his mental health and they can trade something outside the first round and extend him reasonably he’s a nice on field fit. Either would maybe open a door to add a guy to develop behind Davis via the draft.

The draft situation certainly does make sense in terms of having Davis and Moore ahead but I think with seats warming up, a potentially robust trade market, a young QB, cap space, and draft capital the trade market makes a bit more sense. Free agency I think is a disaster waiting to happen and my third favorite option by a wide margin.

I do think another area we agree is the benefit of moving down from #10 - to me if they catch a team wanting to move ahead of Washington for a QB (New Orleans? Pittsburgh?) the risk/reward for a WR oddly gets quite a bit better in the second half of the first if they weren’t to trade. It’s also possible they just take their favorite guy in the draft at pick #10, would make sense, I just suspect that’s not the plan.

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, derp said:

Wilson played like 80% of his snaps outside last year.

 

5 hours ago, derp said:

Wilson played like 80% of his snaps outside last year.

I don’t think he did.
But I’ve seen him projected as a slot receiver

[derp]

18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

 

I don’t think he did.
But I’ve seen him projected as a slot receiver

From PFF:

“Wilson's ability to generate separation is the best in the class. He’s also produced at a high level from both the slot (73.4% of his snaps in 2020) and outside (82.9% of his snaps in 2021).“

Moore was projected as a slot and ended up more productive outside in the NFL. Wilson’s best year in college was the year he played more outside. At this point not a lot of guys are a lot or outside only. Realistically both are probably capable of moving around which is what the offense seems to ask guys to do.

[Jethead]

The ability to run all the routes and separate seems like the skill set that has the most carryover to the pro game. UI get the big man thing but if you can't separate the pro corners are like a second skin. Mims problem (among many).

[FidelioJet]

56 minutes ago, derp said:

From PFF:

“Wilson's ability to generate separation is the best in the class. He’s also produced at a high level from both the slot (73.4% of his snaps in 2020) and outside (82.9% of his snaps in 2021).“

Moore was projected as a slot and ended up more productive outside in the NFL. Wilson’s best year in college was the year he played more outside. At this point not a lot of guys are a lot or outside only. Realistically both are probably capable of moving around which is what the offense seems to ask guys to do.

I'm all for taking Wilson, but then you better go and get one or probably two high quality TE's...draft one, sign one..

we'll have the smallest WR group in the league.  Need some size somewhere.

[derp]

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I'm all for taking Wilson, but then you better go and get one or probably two high quality TE's...draft one, sign one..

we'll have the smallest WR group in the league.  Need some size somewhere.

Yeah it’s kind of funny schematically there’s a chance they build to a group of guys who’d fit better playing on one of those old school dome teams. I kind of figured they’d prioritize bulk because that’s been important for SF and GB but Moore isn’t particularly thick.

I think they need multiple TE’s even if they take 6’5 Drake London.

The big thing that’s missing from the WR group is the ability to beat man coverage. Think that comes before size.

I also think they’re better off trying to acquire a veteran than draft someone. But think the priority in WR is beating man and TE needs bodies regardless.

[FidelioJet]

7 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah it’s kind of funny schematically there’s a chance they build to a group of guys who’d fit better playing on one of those old school dome teams. I kind of figured they’d prioritize bulk because that’s been important for SF and GB but Moore isn’t particularly thick.

I think they need multiple TE’s even if they take 6’5 Drake London.

The big thing that’s missing from the WR group is the ability to beat man coverage. Think that comes before size.

I also think they’re better off trying to acquire a veteran than draft someone. But think the priority in WR is beating man and TE needs bodies regardless.

Exactly.

Right now the only way guys were getting open (when Moore was out) was ML had to scheme them open.   We need guys that can win 1 on 1...

The smaller size just really shrinks the QB's room for error, but would rather a little guy open than a big guy covered.

[derp]

22 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Exactly.

Right now the only way guys were getting open (when Moore was out) was ML had to scheme them open.   We need guys that can win 1 on 1...

The smaller size just really shrinks the QB's room for error, but would rather a little guy open than a big guy covered.

Yeah, I have a tendency to think of elite WR’s as the guys who have dominant physical traits - Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones - or the bigger guys who are fast enough and have outstanding ball skills - Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green. Guys who came into the league a decade plus ago.

Look at the top of the league in receiving yards and it’s Tyreek Hill, a few tight ends, and a bunch of guys who ran 4.4 or slower at 6’2 or under.

My guess is with the new way they enforce illegal contact and holding it’s just less important to have those physical traits and more important to be a technician. And it’s also easier to do that when you’re a little shorter and can drop your weight more easily.

I’ll always love the big freak athlete but in a league that values wheels and size at WR I think the guy who runs routes and can catch in tight spaces when he needs to is where things are going. And you can usually get them a little later which is nice. 

[Peace Frog]

29 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Exactly.

Right now the only way guys were getting open (when Moore was out) was ML had to scheme them open.   We need guys that can win 1 on 1...

The smaller size just really shrinks the QB's room for error, but would rather a little guy open than a big guy covered.

While I’d be ok with London at 10, Wilson is really starting to creep up on me. 
 

London is always open because of his size but Wilson gets open with route running and the ability to high point. And the relative speed. 

[Jet Nut]

13 hours ago, derp said:

From PFF:

“Wilson's ability to generate separation is the best in the class. He’s also produced at a high level from both the slot (73.4% of his snaps in 2020) and outside (82.9% of his snaps in 2021).“

Moore was projected as a slot and ended up more productive outside in the NFL. Wilson’s best year in college was the year he played more outside. At this point not a lot of guys are a lot or outside only. Realistically both are probably capable of moving around which is what the offense seems to ask guys to do.

Thanks, thaTS a far cry from he’s never played the slot.  Or he’s best suited for the outside.