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assessing value/need


Phillyjet
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Continuing to do research on the draft, our annual super bowl.  A lot will become clearer after free agency (eg do we trade a 2nd for a vet WR?,  do we sign a lineman?) But as of now, here's what I got:

First, there is no trade-up here that is worth it.  These are not generational players... they come with asterisks.  

Looking at value/need, I see the draft falling to the Jets with the 4th pick.  Thibodeaux or Hutchinson will be there for the taking.  Pickett is going top 3,  and there will likely be at least one offensive lineman off the board.  If we want the edge, or 4-3 end, he will be there.

If both edge players are gone, however:

1) Drafting an elite tackle to replace Morgan Moses at the least, but also providing flexibility for Bechton not returning to form, or Fant departing after next year, may be next.  Don't think the WRs deserve number 4 consideration.  Saleh has already shown in his zone cover scheme that he can get away with corners later.  And you can't take Hamilton at 4.  10 maybe, but not 4.  Jets would be getting pick of tackles here.

2) Over-drafting the next end/edge:  Karlaftis will be in discussion here, but don't think he is a top 4 pick.  

At 10, assuming the Jets don't trade down (and even then need/value would be same) would think that value/need stacks as:

1) Top WR; obviously we need weapons; I don't think any are top 10 material.  The tall guys will struggle with separation, and the smaller guys are usually 20's to top 2nd round.  There is no Jamarr Chase or Julio Jones here as a complete dominant threat.  Could see a Garrett Wilson or Drake London here, but both come with some risk/reward.  

2) An edge like Karlaftis who drops, or a Jermaine Johnson who rises.  Little high for Johnson but suspect he will be a riser.

3) Kyle Hamilton; At 10, need value is much better, but again, he is a tweener... he will be solid, but you need game-changers in the top 10.  And Saleh knows how to find siimilar players later in the draft that are serviceable in his zone-heavy scheme.

4) Interior offensive line:  This could be a Linderbaum spot (particularly if we drop), but I think it's a bit high, and with McGovern improving, I think the need is greater at RG and tackle right now.   

At 35 and 39

Day 2 is where we make or break our draft this year.  Lots of value and need lining up at the top of the 2nd with impact starters, including:

1) Right tackle:  Raimann or Petit-Frere would be nice additions here, assuming we go EDGE/WR in the first;  top of the 2nd will have 10-year starters on the line for the taking

2) Mike linebacker:  Really like Chad Muma for this defense, also Christian Harris.  Don't be surprised if Nakobe Dean drops into the seconde. Mike LB makes a lot of sense at the top of the 2nd.

3) If we don't select a WR in round 1, we will by round 2, but it will be more of a crapshoot in round 2, and probably smaller guys that look more like Elijah Moore (Jahan Dotson?), allowing Davis to return on the outside with Moore and a Dotson interchangeable on the slot and outside.  Not ideal, but still better. I don't see us coming out of free agency or the draft with a clear high end WR1.  And I would not trade any of our 1's for Thomas or Ridley.  DK maybe.  Possible we move a high 2nd for one of them though, if we don't take a WR in round 1.  This option becomes greater if the Jets lose Berrios, which I think is more likely than not. 

3rd/4th Round:

Tight end and RB:  I think the need/value is better here.  Some may criticize not landing a TE until the 3rd or 4th round, but I see a deep class that is more tightly bunched here, not a Kyle Pitts separation among the class.  We also will continue our string of 4th string RBs. and then continue to round out the tweener LB/safeties for Saleh's defense.  Maybe a DT with the loss of Fatukasi in the offseason.

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9 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Continuing to do research on the draft, our annual super bowl.  A lot will become clearer after free agency (eg do we trade a 2nd for a vet WR?,  do we sign a lineman?) But as of now, here's what I got:

First, there is no trade-up here that is worth it.  These are not generational players... they come with asterisks.  

Looking at value/need, I see the draft falling to the Jets with the 4th pick.  Thibodeaux or Hutchinson will be there for the taking.  Pickett is going top 3,  and there will likely be at least one offensive lineman off the board.  If we want the edge, or 4-3 end, he will be there.

If both edge players are gone, however:

1) Drafting an elite tackle to replace Morgan Moses at the least, but also providing flexibility for Bechton not returning to form, or Fant departing after next year, may be next.  Don't think the WRs deserve number 4 consideration.  Saleh has already shown in his zone cover scheme that he can get away with corners later.  And you can't take Hamilton at 4.  10 maybe, but not 4.  Jets would be getting pick of tackles here.

2) Over-drafting the next end/edge:  Karlaftis will be in discussion here, but don't think he is a top 4 pick.  

At 10, assuming the Jets don't trade down (and even then need/value would be same) would think that value/need stacks as:

1) Top WR; obviously we need weapons; I don't think any are top 10 material.  The tall guys will struggle with separation, and the smaller guys are usually 20's to top 2nd round.  There is no Jamarr Chase or Julio Jones here as a complete dominant threat.  Could see a Garrett Wilson or Drake London here, but both come with some risk/reward.  

2) An edge like Karlaftis who drops, or a Jermaine Johnson who rises.  Little high for Johnson but suspect he will be a riser.

3) Kyle Hamilton; At 10, need value is much better, but again, he is a tweener... he will be solid, but you need game-changers in the top 10.  And Saleh knows how to find siimilar players later in the draft that are serviceable in his zone-heavy scheme.

4) Interior offensive line:  This could be a Linderbaum spot (particularly if we drop), but I think it's a bit high, and with McGovern improving, I think the need is greater at RG and tackle right now.   

At 35 and 39

Day 2 is where we make or break our draft this year.  Lots of value and need lining up at the top of the 2nd with impact starters, including:

1) Right tackle:  Raimann or Petit-Frere would be nice additions here, assuming we go EDGE/WR in the first;  top of the 2nd will have 10-year starters on the line for the taking

2) Mike linebacker:  Really like Chad Muma for this defense, also Christian Harris.  Don't be surprised if Nakobe Dean drops into the seconde. Mike LB makes a lot of sense at the top of the 2nd.

3) If we don't select a WR in round 1, we will by round 2, but it will be more of a crapshoot in round 2, and probably smaller guys that look more like Elijah Moore (Jahan Dotson?), allowing Davis to return on the outside with Moore and a Dotson interchangeable on the slot and outside.  Not ideal, but still better. I don't see us coming out of free agency or the draft with a clear high end WR1.  And I would not trade any of our 1's for Thomas or Ridley.  DK maybe.  Possible we move a high 2nd for one of them though, if we don't take a WR in round 1.  This option becomes greater if the Jets lose Berrios, which I think is more likely than not. 

3rd/4th Round:

Tight end and RB:  I think the need/value is better here.  Some may criticize not landing a TE until the 3rd or 4th round, but I see a deep class that is more tightly bunched here, not a Kyle Pitts separation among the class.  We also will continue our string of 4th string RBs. and then continue to round out the tweener LB/safeties for Saleh's defense.  Maybe a DT with the loss of Fatukasi in the offseason.

If Dean is there in the 2nd and McBride is gone, I’ll taking him. 

I love Dotson as a player but I gotta get someone over 6” to pair with Moore. Wilson at 6” is the shortest I’d like to go and I’d gladly take him. London Burks Bell Pickens if any are there in the 2nd. 

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I don't think we have to draft an elite RT honestly. If we can re-sign Moses, that'll take some pressure off drafting a T that high. We could then target a T in the 3rd round like Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan.

Kyle Hamilton at 10 is a little more intriguing. I'll be open to that. But hopefully we target a pass catcher at that spot whether at 10 or in a trade down. 

Day two I feel we're in a prime position to snag someone who'll surprisingly drop from the 1st. So we may not be targeting a position and more so talent. We sort of have back to back picks so with the latter pick we can may target a TE, LB. The Penn St and Bama LBs comes to mind. Along with the TE from Colorado St or Coastal Carolina. David Bell is a WR we can target if we don't snatch one in the 1st. 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Continuing to do research on the draft, our annual super bowl.  A lot will become clearer after free agency (eg do we trade a 2nd for a vet WR?,  do we sign a lineman?) But as of now, here's what I got:

First, there is no trade-up here that is worth it.  These are not generational players... they come with asterisks.  

Looking at value/need, I see the draft falling to the Jets with the 4th pick.  Thibodeaux or Hutchinson will be there for the taking.  Pickett is going top 3,  and there will likely be at least one offensive lineman off the board.  If we want the edge, or 4-3 end, he will be there.

If both edge players are gone, however:

1) Drafting an elite tackle to replace Morgan Moses at the least, but also providing flexibility for Bechton not returning to form, or Fant departing after next year, may be next.  Don't think the WRs deserve number 4 consideration.  Saleh has already shown in his zone cover scheme that he can get away with corners later.  And you can't take Hamilton at 4.  10 maybe, but not 4.  Jets would be getting pick of tackles here.

2) Over-drafting the next end/edge:  Karlaftis will be in discussion here, but don't think he is a top 4 pick.  

At 10, assuming the Jets don't trade down (and even then need/value would be same) would think that value/need stacks as:

1) Top WR; obviously we need weapons; I don't think any are top 10 material.  The tall guys will struggle with separation, and the smaller guys are usually 20's to top 2nd round.  There is no Jamarr Chase or Julio Jones here as a complete dominant threat.  Could see a Garrett Wilson or Drake London here, but both come with some risk/reward.  

2) An edge like Karlaftis who drops, or a Jermaine Johnson who rises.  Little high for Johnson but suspect he will be a riser.

3) Kyle Hamilton; At 10, need value is much better, but again, he is a tweener... he will be solid, but you need game-changers in the top 10.  And Saleh knows how to find siimilar players later in the draft that are serviceable in his zone-heavy scheme.

4) Interior offensive line:  This could be a Linderbaum spot (particularly if we drop), but I think it's a bit high, and with McGovern improving, I think the need is greater at RG and tackle right now.   

At 35 and 39

Day 2 is where we make or break our draft this year.  Lots of value and need lining up at the top of the 2nd with impact starters, including:

1) Right tackle:  Raimann or Petit-Frere would be nice additions here, assuming we go EDGE/WR in the first;  top of the 2nd will have 10-year starters on the line for the taking

2) Mike linebacker:  Really like Chad Muma for this defense, also Christian Harris.  Don't be surprised if Nakobe Dean drops into the seconde. Mike LB makes a lot of sense at the top of the 2nd.

3) If we don't select a WR in round 1, we will by round 2, but it will be more of a crapshoot in round 2, and probably smaller guys that look more like Elijah Moore (Jahan Dotson?), allowing Davis to return on the outside with Moore and a Dotson interchangeable on the slot and outside.  Not ideal, but still better. I don't see us coming out of free agency or the draft with a clear high end WR1.  And I would not trade any of our 1's for Thomas or Ridley.  DK maybe.  Possible we move a high 2nd for one of them though, if we don't take a WR in round 1.  This option becomes greater if the Jets lose Berrios, which I think is more likely than not. 

3rd/4th Round:

Tight end and RB:  I think the need/value is better here.  Some may criticize not landing a TE until the 3rd or 4th round, but I see a deep class that is more tightly bunched here, not a Kyle Pitts separation among the class.  We also will continue our string of 4th string RBs. and then continue to round out the tweener LB/safeties for Saleh's defense.  Maybe a DT with the loss of Fatukasi in the offseason.

Lots to ponder.

As you say, too soon to know how things will pan out. I do expect JD to make some kind of splash play in FA which will clarify the draft path. To quote Carmela Soprano (I don't know who she was quoting), "more is lost by indecision than wrong decision". It's time.

OL, Edge, WR, TE, LB will all find their way in somewhere. Building for Zach has to be the #1 priority.

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