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Hypothetical Trade With Broncos


BurntDice
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After some thought and too many mock drafts I came up with a trade that while may seem highly unlikely also makes sense in my somewhat crazy head. 
 

Trade -

Jets trade Pick 4 in 2022 draft

Denzel Mims 

 

Broncos trade 

Jerry Jeudy 

2nd Round pick (40)

2nd round pick (Rams)

1st or 2nd round pick in 2023 

 

The Jets receive a young #1 WR who has somewhat struggled with poor qb play in Denver. and will have 4 2nd round picks in this draft plus another in 2023. We need good players all over the field and with the #10 pick and all those 2nd rounders we should be able to fill a ton of holes. 
 

At 4 the broncos can take any QB they want in the draft and someone with the #7 pick. 
 

what do you guys think? 
 

Unlikely maybe, but I would like it 

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Depends how much you like Jeudy. And the gap between it being a first round pick in 2023 and a second round pick in 2023 is pretty significant.

The Broncos' second round picks are worth roughly 800 points or the 21st pick in the first round. So the future pick and Jeudy need to make up 1000 points to get to the value of pick 4.

I'm accustomed to valuing a future first round pick as half of the current year's first round pick, or 675 which values Jeudy - Mims as a late second round pick. To me, that's rich for a guy who's averaged around 50 yards per game for his career. Some value it as a mid first round pick this year or 1000 which has Jeudy = Mims which is somewhat surprising. I think the former approach is more accurate.

If it's a future second round pick that is 250 points via the half current year pick method and 420 points via the mid current round method. That either values Jeudy in the early 20's or top of the second round. I don't think there's any way that's his current value given what he's done his first two seasons in the league. 

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Live in Denver

Jeudy is misused here. This offense has suffered from Pat Shurmur + Bad QB play.

That said, I'm wondering if your trade is a bit too complicated? How about Jeudy for the 38th pick? I think that's his value now - he was misused and he's clearly got talent, but he's no longer worth a first rounder. 

All that being said, I could see them try to package Jeudy in a trade for a veteran quarterback, or they might just sign Jimmy G and roll with the pieces already in place (including Jeudy). 

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3 hours ago, derp said:

Depends how much you like Jeudy. And the gap between it being a first round pick in 2023 and a second round pick in 2023 is pretty significant.

The Broncos' second round picks are worth roughly 800 points or the 21st pick in the first round. So the future pick and Jeudy need to make up 1000 points to get to the value of pick 4.

I'm accustomed to valuing a future first round pick as half of the current year's first round pick, or 675 which values Jeudy - Mims as a late second round pick. To me, that's rich for a guy who's averaged around 50 yards per game for his career. Some value it as a mid first round pick this year or 1000 which has Jeudy = Mims which is somewhat surprising. I think the former approach is more accurate.

If it's a future second round pick that is 250 points via the half current year pick method and 420 points via the mid current round method. That either values Jeudy in the early 20's or top of the second round. I don't think there's any way that's his current value given what he's done his first two seasons in the league. 

I still value jeudy very highly. The broncos offense has been a complete train wreck. His greatest skills as a receiver are his route running and YAC ability which is exactly what this offense thrives on. I see him as a younger cheaper Ridley without the mental issues. They both have a very similar skill set. 
 

even if we are “losing” the trade value wise I’d take jeudy over any wr in this draft without a doubt. 

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3 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Live in Denver

Jeudy is misused here. This offense has suffered from Pat Shurmur + Bad QB play.

That said, I'm wondering if your trade is a bit too complicated? How about Jeudy for the 38th pick? I think that's his value now - he was misused and he's clearly got talent, but he's no longer worth a first rounder. 

All that being said, I could see them try to package Jeudy in a trade for a veteran quarterback, or they might just sign Jimmy G and roll with the pieces already in place (including Jeudy). 

I was just thinking that they would want the 4th pick to take the qb of their choosing. At 7 they might get jumped over by another team. 
 

I also don’t see a huge talent gap between the mid first rounders and  mid second rounders in this class so picking up 2 more 2nd plus a pick next year and jeudy would really make me happy. 
 

i 100% agree with jeudy being misused thus far and him in this system with hopefully Zach playing well i can see him being a top 15 wr in the league. 

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18 minutes ago, Jdub03 said:

I wouldn't be against 4 to 9 swap with Jeudy included in the package.

My only issue with that is that at pick 9 you are still in no man’s land value wise for the guys on the board. With multiple 2nd round picks you can get guys just about as good as the 1st round guys. We still have the #10 pick so can still go Lloyd/Gardner/Hamilton/ojabo or whoever else 

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27 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I still value jeudy very highly. The broncos offense has been a complete train wreck. His greatest skills as a receiver are his route running and YAC ability which is exactly what this offense thrives on. I see him as a younger cheaper Ridley without the mental issues. They both have a very similar skill set. 
 

even if we are “losing” the trade value wise I’d take jeudy over any wr in this draft without a doubt. 

I think change of scenery wise maybe moving to a better offense than Denver's could help him, but on the Jets he'd probably receive more attention - it's not like the offense is a clear upgrade from Denver's.

He's also now only cheap for two more years, still hasn't produced, is coming off a year he was banged up. Those two years of cheap rookie deal are pretty important for trade value, between that and his production his value has definitely gone down.

To be fair I also never liked Jeudy as much as he was hyped predraft, so I'm less convinced he's misused. I've always seen a guy who's a good #2 with a legit #1 across from him. Think his YAC is more flash than substance with those full stop - then start again moves. He's not strong enough to really break tackles. 

I do agree he's a good route runner. I think play strength is the big thing that to me separates him from some of the better guys in the league and limits him as a player, so maybe as he gets older he gets stronger and then improves as that evolves.

I think anybody who trades for Jeudy obviously likes him but they're also buying low and that should be baked into the cost to acquire him. Trying to think of who might be a good comparison of a first round WR trade for a change of scenery. I'm not sure there's a good one.

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40 minutes ago, derp said:

I think change of scenery wise maybe moving to a better offense than Denver's could help him, but on the Jets he'd probably receive more attention - it's not like the offense is a clear upgrade from Denver's.

He's also now only cheap for two more years, still hasn't produced, is coming off a year he was banged up. Those two years of cheap rookie deal are pretty important for trade value, between that and his production his value has definitely gone down.

To be fair I also never liked Jeudy as much as he was hyped predraft, so I'm less convinced he's misused. I've always seen a guy who's a good #2 with a legit #1 across from him. Think his YAC is more flash than substance with those full stop - then start again moves. He's not strong enough to really break tackles. 

I do agree he's a good route runner. I think play strength is the big thing that to me separates him from some of the better guys in the league and limits him as a player, so maybe as he gets older he gets stronger and then improves as that evolves.

I think anybody who trades for Jeudy obviously likes him but they're also buying low and that should be baked into the cost to acquire him. Trying to think of who might be a good comparison of a first round WR trade for a change of scenery. I'm not sure there's a good one.

I mean he had 850 yards in 2020. I’d say that’s producing. I loved jeudy coming out. I liked him more than lamb. He was just so damn exciting with breaking all those dudes ankles. I agree that if he put on another 10 lbs then he would have an easier time breaking tackles and beating press. He’s still great at beating press, but the way he does it now might be putting extra strain on his legs. 

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1 hour ago, BurntDice said:

I mean he had 850 yards in 2020. I’d say that’s producing. I loved jeudy coming out. I liked him more than lamb. He was just so damn exciting with breaking all those dudes ankles. I agree that if he put on another 10 lbs then he would have an easier time breaking tackles and beating press. He’s still great at beating press, but the way he does it now might be putting extra strain on his legs. 

Basically what this boils down to is you liked Jeudy is a prospect and you see him in a bad situation as someone with upside to become what you liked.

I was meh on him as a prospect - loved Jefferson and couldn’t get a good feel for the rest of the class (I also really liked Mims, oops, and Claypool). So I see someone who I expected to be good not great and not able to transcend a bad situation (which he’d have on the Jets) producing at a good not great level and not transcending a bad situation with the Broncos - so I don’t think he’d be any better on the Jets.

We’re both just seeing what we thought we’d see. Makes sense.

I will say being a year off an 850 yard season isn’t high second round pick worthy production in my eyes.

They'd never trade him within the division but he’d probably thrive on the Chiefs or something. I think he needs an explosive, wide open offense to give him room to operate for him to excel. The Jets offense has looked congested pretty much every year I’ve been alive except when Favre was healthy and the good Fitzpatrick stretch.

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58 minutes ago, derp said:

Basically what this boils down to is you liked Jeudy is a prospect and you see him in a bad situation as someone with upside to become what you liked.

I was meh on him as a prospect - loved Jefferson and couldn’t get a good feel for the rest of the class (I also really liked Mims, oops, and Claypool). So I see someone who I expected to be good not great and not able to transcend a bad situation (which he’d have on the Jets) producing at a good not great level and not transcending a bad situation with the Broncos - so I don’t think he’d be any better on the Jets.

We’re both just seeing what we thought we’d see. Makes sense.

I will say being a year off an 850 yard season isn’t high second round pick worthy production in my eyes.

They'd never trade him within the division but he’d probably thrive on the Chiefs or something. I think he needs an explosive, wide open offense to give him room to operate for him to excel. The Jets offense has looked congested pretty much every year I’ve been alive except when Favre was healthy and the good Fitzpatrick stretch.

I think you’re right about why we view him differently. 
 

So I see someone who I expected to be good not great and not able to transcend a bad situation (which he’d have on the Jets) producing at a good not great level and not transcending a bad situation with the Broncos - so I don’t think he’d be any better on the Jets.

This part I disagree with. It may just be the eternal optimist in me, but I view Zach next year as being a better qb than lock/teddy and lafleur as a better oc than shermur. I know the evidence isn’t quite there yet, but to me the signs are pointing in that direction. 

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11 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I think you’re right about why we view him differently. 
 

So I see someone who I expected to be good not great and not able to transcend a bad situation (which he’d have on the Jets) producing at a good not great level and not transcending a bad situation with the Broncos - so I don’t think he’d be any better on the Jets.

This part I disagree with. It may just be the eternal optimist in me, but I view Zach next year as being a better qb than lock/teddy and lafleur as a better oc than shermur. I know the evidence isn’t quite there yet, but to me the signs are pointing in that direction. 

It’s absolutely possible - too many if’s for me to give up that kind of draft capital.

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35 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Highly doubt they trade Jeudy and Mims is not worth anything as a throw-in. 

I’m not so sure about this. Apparently teams were calling at the deadline asking about a trade. If true then he has some trade value 

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Just now, BurntDice said:

I’m not so sure about this. Apparently teams were calling at the deadline asking about a trade. If true then he has some trade value 

Mims? 

Im not one of those idiots that hated him and I’m really pulling for the guy but if we could get a 4th for him and we use that pick to get Alec Pierce, I’m down. 

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36 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

Mims? 

Im not one of those idiots that hated him and I’m really pulling for the guy but if we could get a 4th for him and we use that pick to get Alec Pierce, I’m down. 

Yea it could be complete bs by the beat reporters but they were saying teams were calling and jd didn’t bite. I have no idea the value wanted by either side. I liked him a lot too coming during the draft process , but he just seems mentally checked out 

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18 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Live in Denver

Jeudy is misused here. This offense has suffered from Pat Shurmur + Bad QB play.

That said, I'm wondering if your trade is a bit too complicated? How about Jeudy for the 38th pick? I think that's his value now - he was misused and he's clearly got talent, but he's no longer worth a first rounder. 

All that being said, I could see them try to package Jeudy in a trade for a veteran quarterback, or they might just sign Jimmy G and roll with the pieces already in place (including Jeudy). 

I'd go for that.

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Not happening. The center of this trade for the Jets is Jeudy. And the Broncos WILL NOT trade him. Not when they also have to give up all that draft capital to move up in a WEAK draft class. 

Frankly, there's a great possibility the Broncos will get the QB they want at 9. 

What makes MORE sense to me is if one of the two top pass rushers falls to 4 and the Broncos trade up to take him at 4, then take their QB at 7. But that does not make sense for the Jets. They should take Thub. or Hutch. IMO they have enough picks and not enough impact players. They will fill a lot of their holes in FA. They need an impact Pass rusher who they probably won't get in FA- JMHO. 

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On 1/26/2022 at 10:50 AM, PepPep said:

Not happening. The center of this trade for the Jets is Jeudy. And the Broncos WILL NOT trade him. Not when they also have to give up all that draft capital to move up in a WEAK draft class. 

Frankly, there's a great possibility the Broncos will get the QB they want at 9. 

What makes MORE sense to me is if one of the two top pass rushers falls to 4 and the Broncos trade up to take him at 4, then take their QB at 7. But that does not make sense for the Jets. They should take Thub. or Hutch. IMO they have enough picks and not enough impact players. They will fill a lot of their holes in FA. They need an impact Pass rusher who they probably won't get in FA- JMHO. 

It’s way too early to tell. They have a new hc and no qb. If you look into the qbs this year instead of just listening to people saying they suck you may come away impressed.

Pickett is fairly polished and should be a day 1 starter. Looks like he can be on Derek carrs level. 
 

Willis has all the tools you can ask for. He carried liberty on his back this year and scored 5 tds in the bowl game. He should sit for a year to take on the nfl game. Remind you of anyone from last year who went #3?

Corral is a fun player to watch. Strong arm and pretty mobile. He was in an rpo heavy scheme so needs time to adjust or a good system fit (saints) He seems like Zach Wilson lite 

Howell has a good arm and played fairly well this year with the cards he was dealt. Has a lot of comps to baker mayfield who went #1.

 

The Falcons, Giants, and Panthers are in front of them and are qb needy. I wouldn’t be so confident that one of those teams won’t take a qb. 

 

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