How much patience should a team have with a new Head Coach?

[Big_Slick]

3 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

2-3 Years is usually fair. 

Making the Judge comparison doesnt work. The Giants were actually regressing from his first year and he was terrible with the media. 

If your team is getting worse, not better, then there is no need for patience. If Saleh wins only 4 games next year, how does everyone feel the conversation should go? 

Finally, like tons of other coaches, do we REALLY think the Bengals got to where they are because of Zak Taylor or because they have this guy playing Burrow at QB with a guy named Chase catching his balls. 

I'm a believer the roster will always be more indicitve of how many wins a teams get over the guy with the headset. 

Bottom line, 2 years you prob know what you have in the coach. The Benglas made a decision they were comfortable with him taking their 2nd year QB into the next season. It worked out. Because if the Bengals did poorly this year, he would of been fired. 

2 -3 years and you have a real good idea if the HC is worth sticking with. Some coaches are victims of circumstance, starting out with a bare roster and a GM who fails to deliver NFL level talent. They can't make chicken salad out of chicken feathers.

[slats]

3 hours ago, varjet said:

but the key to the article is “hired as a team.”    The best way for the Jets to approach their organization is to view JD and Saleh hired as a team in 2021.   They obviously draft together.  If they do a bad job this off season and next season they could be fired in January 2023.  It would be aggressive but it is possible.  But I think the 2023 season is the telling one.  

People don’t want to hear it, but that’s probably how it’s being seen internally. Joe Douglas sold them on the long view, and now his hand picked head coach is only one year in. Barring a mutiny in another lost season, they will almost certainly get 2023, too. I do expect some more urgency this offseason than we saw last year, but…

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

Saleh not sure. But if the Jets arent in the playoff hunt in December Douglas will be fired.

I don’t expect any playoff mandates. I think the bare minimum will be avoiding double digit losses. That 7-9-1 will drag them across the finish line, but 6-11 will either get them both fired, or put them both on a very hot seat in 2023. 
 
Jets have enough money and draft capital to significantly improve the roster this year. They won’t be rookie coaches anymore, and the systems will be in place. They will still likely be one of, if not the, youngest teams in the league again next season. Last year their first four picks over four rounds all wound up being starters. This year there will be seven players taken in the first four rounds. A Parcells-ism is that you can figure on one loss for every rookie starter you have on your team. It probably means another slower start, unfortunately. If Wilson plays at the level he finished last year, they should be able to parlay that into an 8 or so win season, anyway. What they need is for Wilson to take a bigger step. He managed some games down the stretch, but you don’t draft a QB at #2 to manage some games: you draft him to make big plays in big spots. 

[Matt39]

18 minutes ago, slats said:

People don’t want to hear it, but that’s probably how it’s being seen internally. Joe Douglas sold them on the long view, and now his hand picked head coach is only one year in. Barring a mutiny in another lost season, they will almost certainly get 2023, too. I do expect some more urgency this offseason than we saw last year, but…

I don’t expect any playoff mandates. I think the bare minimum will be avoiding double digit losses. That 7-9-1 will drag them across the finish line, but 6-11 will either get them both fired, or put them both on a very hot seat in 2023. 
 
Jets have enough money and draft capital to significantly improve the roster this year. They won’t be rookie coaches anymore, and the systems will be in place. They will still likely be one of, if not the, youngest teams in the league again next season. Last year their first four picks over four rounds all wound up being starters. This year there will be seven players taken in the first four rounds. A Parcells-ism is that you can figure on one loss for every rookie starter you have on your team. It probably means another slower start, unfortunately. If Wilson plays at the level he finished last year, they should be able to parlay that into an 8 or so win season, anyway. What they need is for Wilson to take a bigger step. He managed some games down the stretch, but you don’t draft a QB at #2 to manage some games: you draft him to make big plays in big spots. 

Simply put- time to start winning games.

[T0mShane]

Greatly enjoying reading these retroactive (if entirely hypocritical and embarrassing) apologies to Eric Mangini and Adam Gase, both of whom showed infinitely more promise in their first years as HC of the NYJ than Bob Saleh did.

[jetstream23]

I think the patience sometimes needs to last longer with first-time head coaches.  Some of those guys just need to take lumps for a few years.  Bill Belichick isn't the only example.  Zac Taylor isn't the only example.  Kyle Shanahan and Pete Carroll aren't the only examples.

The question is whether your organization is willing to let guys stumble and grow.  It's often uneven.  It's two steps forward, one step back.  But the Patriots benefited from Cleveland being short-sighted with BB.  The Seahawks benefited from the Jets being short-sighted with Carroll, etc.

I'd rather give a first-time HC an extra year than jettison him and watch him become the longterm solution for another team that benefited from the growing pains your team could no longer tolerate.  I'm not talking about guys who are obvious failures, who you can tell the job is too big for them, or for coaches whose teams are clearly quitting on them.  I'm talking about guys who need some time to find their way.  The argument from some people is that, "well, he hasn't turned this into a .500 team and it's been two or three years.  If we give him another season then we're delaying our reboot, our rebuild, etc."  Then so be it, delaying another year should not be a huge concern because when you do finally make the change you begin a cycle of new system installations and turning over the roster again to find pieces that will fit your next head coach.

To be clear, I'm talking specifically about first-time HC's, not retreads.  I'm okay with the Jets saying that they've seen enough of Adam Gase after 2 years when they already saw 3 years of him head coaching someplace else.  Same probably goes for a guy like Rex Ryan and now possibly Mike McCarthy.  Teams know EXACTLY who those guys are now, what their limitations are (I mean imagine coaching for decades with Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott and winning just 1 Super Bowl).  I think the 49ers and Bengals are glad they kept their losing coaches for that 3rd season.

 

[Beerfish]

In my mind it has nothing to do with simply the record or sticking with a coach no matter what or not.  There are a lot of factors and for every instance you get a Pittsburgh like you can get terrible coaches you need to move on from.

Someone tell me we should have stuck with Gase for 3 more years, just because.  I double dog dare you!

You can often tell a coach who has some brains on a rebuilding team vs just a dumbo.

 

[slats]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Greatly enjoying reading these retroactive (if entirely hypocritical and embarrassing) apologies to Eric Mangini and Adam Gase, both of whom showed infinitely more promise in their first years as HC of the NYJ than Bob Saleh did.

Both of whom dream about having Rex Ryan’s success. But they can only dream, because neither man will ever be a head coach in the NFL ever again. 

[Rangers9]

I’d say at least 3 years. But if things fall apart and the team is getting murderlized and isn’t competitive you might not give the HC any extra time. Of course if the guy says or does stupid stuff to embarrass the org you have to fire them. 

[T0mShane]

4 hours ago, slats said:

Rex Ryan’s success.

[AFJF]

I'm conflicted.  On the one hand, I think it's important to let a coach take his lumps and learn as he goes, much like a young player.

OTOH, I would have fired Adam Gase half way though his introductory press conference.

[32EBoozer]

19 hours ago, chirorob said:

Id settle for a draft like the ravens had.

HOF left tackle at #4.   HOF middle linebacker with their 2nd first rounder.

You know.  Minus the murdery stuff.

Plus, the Steelers blew both of their 6th round draft picks that year.

Yes, that was the 2nd best draft of all time. Not so worried about the two 6th round picks when you have 5 HOF players from that year. 
 

All I’m saying is that if all the stars need align for the Jets on draft day ( players available or teams willing to trade picks up or down) JD needs to be in “Zen Mode” and make all the right decisions. Difficult but Possible!