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What’s a successful top 4 pick?


Hal N of Provo
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16 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

What’s the requirement to be a good top 4 pick?  Where do you draw the line of what’s successful? 
 

Do they need to be a hall of famer? Pro-bowler? Borderline Probowler but long time starter? Top 10 player at their position? Average long time starter? 

Brick, Mangold, Revis all fit the bill.  IMO. David Harris as well. Just a quick answer….

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I think a guy who gets re-signed and provides good value their second contract would be a win.

13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Pro bowler at least part of their career.

I would look at a guy such as D'Brick.  We got him at 6 but to me he would be a worthy top 4 pick.

An even better analogy than you thought. Brick was picked 4th.

 

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Good question.

Here is a list of the last 30 picks taken #4 overall.  A pretty interesting mix of Hall of Fame type player, very good multiple brawl bowl types and others.

I’d use a Former Jet on this list as a pretty good measuring stick.  Brick’s career at #4 is a good pick.  Dewayne Robertson not so much.

2021 Kyle Pitts Falcons 1 4 4 TE Florida
2020 Andrew Thomas Giants 1 4 4 T Georgia
2019 Clelin Ferrell Raiders 1 4 4 DE Clemson
2018 Denzel Ward Browns 1 4 4 DB Ohio State
2017 Leonard Fournette Jaguars 1 4 4 RB Louisiana State
2016 Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys 1 4 4 RB Ohio State
2015 Amari Cooper Raiders 1 4 4 WR Alabama
2014 Sammy Watkins Bills 1 4 4 WR Clemson
2013 Lane Johnson Eagles 1 4 4 T Oklahoma
2012 Matt Kalil Vikings 1 4 4 T USC
2011 A.J. Green Bengals 1 4 4 WR Georgia
2010 Trent Williams Redskins 1 4 4 T Oklahoma
2009 Aaron Curry Seahawks 1 4 4 LB Wake Forest
2008 Darren McFadden Raiders 1 4 4 RB Arkansas
2007 Gaines Adams Buccaneers 1 4 4 DE Clemson
2006 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets 1 4 4 T Virginia
2005 Cedric Benson Bears 1 4 4 RB Texas
2004 Philip Rivers Giants 1 4 4 QB North Carolina State
2003 Dewayne Robertson Jets 1 4 4 DT Kentucky
2002 Mike Williams Bills 1 4 4 T Texas
2001 Justin Smith Bengals 1 4 4 DE Missouri
2000 Peter Warrick Bengals 1 4 4 WR Florida State
1999 Edgerrin James Colts 1 4 4 RB Miami (FL)
1998 Charles Woodson Raiders 1 4 4 DB Michigan
1997 Peter Boulware Ravens 1 4 4 DE Florida State
1996 Jonathan Ogden Ravens 1 4 4 T UCLA
1995 Michael Westbrook Redskins 1 4 4 WR Colorado
1994 Willie McGinest Patriots 1 4 4 DE USC
1993 Marvin Jones Jets 1 4 4 LB Florida State
1992 Desmond Howard Redskins 1 4 4 WR Michigan
1991 Mike Croel Broncos 1 4 4 LB Nebraska
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40 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

What’s the requirement to be a good top 4 pick?  Where do you draw the line of what’s successful? 
 

Do they need to be a hall of famer? Pro-bowler? Borderline Probowler but long time starter? Top 10 player at their position? Average long time starter? 

JD has someone else make the pick, that's a successful one.

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40 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Pro bowler at least part of their career.

I would look at a guy such as D'Brick.  We got him at 6 but to me he would be a worthy top 4 pick.

Brick is an Excellent example 👍

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38 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Depends on the position.
 

- DT, iOL, TE, LB and S need to be all-pros

- RB I’d put the threshold at borderline HoF

- WR, OT, Edge and CB I’d say borderline probowler

- QB top 15 starter

 

This is a good way to consider it. You are looking for an All Pro ideally but a "Successful" selection may be considered something entirely different. 

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1 hour ago, Hal N of Provo said:

What’s the requirement to be a good top 4 pick?  Where do you draw the line of what’s successful? 
 

Do they need to be a hall of famer? Pro-bowler? Borderline Probowler but long time starter? Top 10 player at their position? Average long time starter? 

All pro for a couple of years, pro bowler for maybe 5 plus years and a 10+ year long career.

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2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Good question.

Here is a list of the last 30 picks taken #4 overall.  A pretty interesting mix of Hall of Fame type player, very good multiple brawl bowl types and others.

I’d use a Former Jet on this list as a pretty good measuring stick.  Brick’s career at #4 is a good pick.  Dewayne Robertson not so much.

2021 Kyle Pitts Falcons 1 4 4 TE Florida
2020 Andrew Thomas Giants 1 4 4 T Georgia
2019 Clelin Ferrell Raiders 1 4 4 DE Clemson
2018 Denzel Ward Browns 1 4 4 DB Ohio State
2017 Leonard Fournette Jaguars 1 4 4 RB Louisiana State
2016 Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys 1 4 4 RB Ohio State
2015 Amari Cooper Raiders 1 4 4 WR Alabama
2014 Sammy Watkins Bills 1 4 4 WR Clemson
2013 Lane Johnson Eagles 1 4 4 T Oklahoma
2012 Matt Kalil Vikings 1 4 4 T USC
2011 A.J. Green Bengals 1 4 4 WR Georgia
2010 Trent Williams Redskins 1 4 4 T Oklahoma
2009 Aaron Curry Seahawks 1 4 4 LB Wake Forest
2008 Darren McFadden Raiders 1 4 4 RB Arkansas
2007 Gaines Adams Buccaneers 1 4 4 DE Clemson
2006 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets 1 4 4 T Virginia
2005 Cedric Benson Bears 1 4 4 RB Texas
2004 Philip Rivers Giants 1 4 4 QB North Carolina State
2003 Dewayne Robertson Jets 1 4 4 DT Kentucky
2002 Mike Williams Bills 1 4 4 T Texas
2001 Justin Smith Bengals 1 4 4 DE Missouri
2000 Peter Warrick Bengals 1 4 4 WR Florida State
1999 Edgerrin James Colts 1 4 4 RB Miami (FL)
1998 Charles Woodson Raiders 1 4 4 DB Michigan
1997 Peter Boulware Ravens 1 4 4 DE Florida State
1996 Jonathan Ogden Ravens 1 4 4 T UCLA
1995 Michael Westbrook Redskins 1 4 4 WR Colorado
1994 Willie McGinest Patriots 1 4 4 DE USC
1993 Marvin Jones Jets 1 4 4 LB Florida State
1992 Desmond Howard Redskins 1 4 4 WR Michigan
1991 Mike Croel Broncos 1 4 4 LB Nebraska

30 years and only 2 DBs. Yet every mock has Kyle Hamilton or Derek Stingley to the Jets. Unless you’re telling me one of these guys will be Charles Woodson, I don’t want to see this crap anymore.

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I think it all depends on whether or not you like the GM.  If you're a fan of the GM, the pick is a success if the no. 4 pick makes the roster.  If you hate him, that no. 4 pick has to be first ballot HoF or he's a bust.

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