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Offense vs. Defense: where does data tell you to invest?


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3 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

But you have to give him a freak MLB and Edge to do his thing.  

I think that’s a really good point and why things aren’t so black and white.  I’m hoping for 2 solid LBs; 1 in FA and the other in the 2nd round.

Edge is tough.  Do you reach for Karlaftis or bank on Ojabo being able to play 4-3 edge?  I just don’t see amazing options here unless someone becomes available via trade or is this year’s Hendrickson in FA.  Think we should invest a 2nd rounder here as well.  I just don’t want to reach in the first.

what’s your plan?

 

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2 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

You don’t need great defense, you need opportunistic defense. I don’t care if we give up tons of yards, not even concerned that they’re not the leader in points allowed. What I care is that we create turnovers and give our offense more opportunities and drives than our opponents. A competent QB on a team that avgs 2 more meaningful drives a game vs an opponent is huge advantage. A defense needs to create those opportunities.

Exactly.  It's the same reason some basketball teams out there like to utilize a lot of full court pressing throughout a game.  Sure, you'll give up some easy layups here and there, but when its done right, you'll also create quite a few more shot attempts for your team than your opponent. 

Defensive efficiency goes down but offensive volume goes up, and most of the time that's a worthwhile trade-off.

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On 1/24/2022 at 4:43 PM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Would you rather have:  

1. excellent offense & mediocre defense

2. avg offense & avg defense

3. excellent defense & mediocre offense

For the stats below, I’ll define average as the midpoint or median of 32 teams, excellent as the 75th percentile and mediocre as the 25th percentile.  So we strip out the margins on the distribution curve.  Tough with the salary cap to be excellent in both, which would be the optimal scenario.  Jets are also so from this that it’s not worth charting.  
 

2021 (1, 2, 3 match above)

1. 27.0 points for to 25.5 points against

2. 23.0 to 22.0 

3. 19.1 to 21.4

* The biggest positive point differential is to have an excellent offense and mediocre defense.  A mediocre offense scores less points than an excellent defense gives up

2020:

1. 28.7 to 27.9

2. 24.7 to 23.9

3. 20.9 to 22.2

2019

1. 25.4 to 26.2

2. 22.6 to 22.6

3. 19.1 to 19.4

2018

1. 26.8 to 26.4

2. 23.0 to 22.5

3. 20.2 to 20.6

2017

1. 25.4 to 23.9

2. 21.2 to 22.0

3. 18.4 to 19.7


What the hell does this mean?  

- In all 5 years, a mediocre offense does not score enough points to win even if you have an excellent defense.

- So there is an advantage to invest in Offense over Defense when looking to achieve a competitive advantage.

- However, the avg offense with an avg defense does just as well in point differential as an excellent offense with a mediocre defense.

- The slant to offense re-emerges when you look at dominant offense versus dominant defense, which I did not list here.  Assume dominant is top 3 teams, there is more upside to an offense and only so much a defense can cut points.  You see this in the comparison with the midpoint.  A dominant offense might score 7 points per game over an avg one while a dominant defense only shaves 4 points off an avg one.

Strategically this tells me the best teams are the ones with dominant offenses and a good enough defense.  If the Jets think there’s a chance getting there, they might invest their go forward capital to get there.

If they think that is not realistic, then it seems fairly neutral to invest in offense or defense to achieve either 1 or 2 above.

offense always has the advantage because they know where they are going with the ball.  the defense reacts and reaction takes time even if it's a split second.

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It's offense...offense...offense for me.

Do I want to see the Jets win or lose 14-10: 17-16; 20-17...no.  That type of team isn't going anywhere in this league that sets rules that favor the offense.

I'd much rather see them win or lose 28-27: 34-31: 45-42.    That means Jets would finally have a QB that can be around for the next 12+ years.   A franchise QB that can shred defenses and take Jets to the Supe one day.

Once you have the QB locked in for the long haul...that can put points on the board.  Then you can focus on fixing other deficiencies.  And let the QB mask over whatever remaining weaknesses may still exist.  Cause all these playoff teams have weaknesses.  But the Elite QBs are the best that can give a team a chance to advance with their arm talent and weapons.

Do we know if Zach Wilson is a franchise QB?  He certainly has the arm talent to sling with the Elites.  But right now he certainly doesn't have their type of weapons to work with. 

IMO...that's what the Jets need to most focus on and fix now.   It's beefing up the OL and more offensive playmakers for me.   

 

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Exactly.  It's the same reason some basketball teams out there like to utilize a lot of full court pressing throughout a game.  Sure, you'll give up some easy layups here and there, but when its done right, you'll also create quite a few more shot attempts for your team than your opponent. 
Defensive efficiency goes down but offensive volume goes up, and most of the time that's a worthwhile trade-off.
Yup football has officially become basketball in terms of strategy ... go for the 3pt shooters.

But

When was the last time a defensive head coach not named belichik established an offense capable of 30pts a game?



.... Richard Todd, Ken OBrien, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Genope, Sam Darnold ...






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18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Exactly.  It's the same reason some basketball teams out there like to utilize a lot of full court pressing throughout a game.  Sure, you'll give up some easy layups here and there, but when its done right, you'll also create quite a few more shot attempts for your team than your opponent. 

Defensive efficiency goes down but offensive volume goes up, and most of the time that's a worthwhile trade-off.

I hope youre talking college because I dont ever see NBA teams empoying a full court press, since the Knicks 30 years ago

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1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

Yup football has officially become basketball in terms of strategy ... go for the 3pt shooters.

But

When was the last time a defensive head coach not named belichik established an offense capable of 30pts a game?


.... Richard Todd, Ken OBrien, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Genope, Sam Darnold ...
 

Parcells?

JJ Johnson?

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18 hours ago, Snell41 said:

You don’t need great defense, you need opportunistic defense. I don’t care if we give up tons of yards, not even concerned that they’re not the leader in points allowed. What I care is that we create turnovers and give our offense more opportunities and drives than our opponents. A competent QB on a team that avgs 2 more meaningful drives a game vs an opponent is huge advantage. A defense needs to create those opportunities.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Opportunistic defense is the perfect wording. Bend but don't break defense that can get some turnovers is what I'd like to see. I don't care how many yards are given up between the 20s.

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21 hours ago, slats said:

Does anyone believe in building defense first anymore? I don’t think so. I’d still look to build a somewhat balanced team that leaned towards the offense. You need to be able to score points, but you also need to be able to disrupt the other team’s QB. The #1 objective of the defense should be to create turnovers to give your offense more chances. So I want pass rushers, and I’m going to coach the whole defense to try and strip the ball on every play. Pass rushers cost money and high draft picks, but they’re worth it. 

Agree with this.

It's pretty much common knowledge you need offense to win in today's NFL. People are overreacting to it a little bit I think -- lot of "you can't possibly hire a defensive coach" or "you'll never win a Super Bowl without a top three QB" takes out there that I don't buy but most people "get it."

Issue was just that our defense was so bad that needs to be addressed too.

But I'd be happy to invest all premium assets and money in offense and pass rushers and let the chips fall where they may with the back 7 on defense.

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3 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Opportunistic defense is the perfect wording. Bend but don't break defense that can get some turnovers is what I'd like to see. I don't care how many yards are given up between the 20s.

Right.

As these spread offenses have risen in college FB that has been the response -- it doesn't matter how many yards you give up. It matters how many turnovers you can force and getting stops in the redzone 

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21 hours ago, slats said:

Does anyone believe in building defense first anymore? I don’t think so. I’d still look to build a somewhat balanced team that leaned towards the offense. You need to be able to score points, but you also need to be able to disrupt the other team’s QB. The #1 objective of the defense should be to create turnovers to give your offense more chances. So I want pass rushers, and I’m going to coach the whole defense to try and strip the ball on every play. Pass rushers cost money and high draft picks, but they’re worth it. 

I also think it's just easier to build an offense.  I know that's hard for Jets fans to understand because we've been the worst offensive teams in the NFL for the past decade but I think hitting on D is just harder.  It's tough to understand who's going to translate and often times, you're taking players off traits and hope you can build.  While that is the case for offensive players in some case, I think for the most part, you have a pretty good feel for what you're getting on offense.  At least to the point where you should be able to know what a player can do immediately and what needs to be developed.

 

 

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On 1/24/2022 at 4:43 PM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Would you rather have:  

1. excellent offense & mediocre defense

2. avg offense & avg defense

3. excellent defense & mediocre offense

For the stats below, I’ll define average as the midpoint or median of 32 teams, excellent as the 75th percentile and mediocre as the 25th percentile.  So we strip out the margins on the distribution curve.  Tough with the salary cap to be excellent in both, which would be the optimal scenario.  Jets are also so from this that it’s not worth charting.  
 

2021 (1, 2, 3 match above)

1. 27.0 points for to 25.5 points against

2. 23.0 to 22.0 

3. 19.1 to 21.4

* The biggest positive point differential is to have an excellent offense and mediocre defense.  A mediocre offense scores less points than an excellent defense gives up

2020:

1. 28.7 to 27.9

2. 24.7 to 23.9

3. 20.9 to 22.2

2019

1. 25.4 to 26.2

2. 22.6 to 22.6

3. 19.1 to 19.4

2018

1. 26.8 to 26.4

2. 23.0 to 22.5

3. 20.2 to 20.6

2017

1. 25.4 to 23.9

2. 21.2 to 22.0

3. 18.4 to 19.7


What the hell does this mean?  

- In all 5 years, a mediocre offense does not score enough points to win even if you have an excellent defense.

- So there is an advantage to invest in Offense over Defense when looking to achieve a competitive advantage.

- However, the avg offense with an avg defense does just as well in point differential as an excellent offense with a mediocre defense.

- The slant to offense re-emerges when you look at dominant offense versus dominant defense, which I did not list here.  Assume dominant is top 3 teams, there is more upside to an offense and only so much a defense can cut points.  You see this in the comparison with the midpoint.  A dominant offense might score 7 points per game over an avg one while a dominant defense only shaves 4 points off an avg one.

Strategically this tells me the best teams are the ones with dominant offenses and a good enough defense.  If the Jets think there’s a chance getting there, they might invest their go forward capital to get there.

If they think that is not realistic, then it seems fairly neutral to invest in offense or defense to achieve either 1 or 2 above.

Why can't you have an excellent offense and an excellent defense ?

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2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Yup football has officially become basketball in terms of strategy ... go for the 3pt shooters.

But

When was the last time a defensive head coach not named belichik established an offense capable of 30pts a game?



.... Richard Todd, Ken OBrien, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez, Genope, Sam Darnold ...





 

Pete Carroll says Hello there

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To me right now the jets need a big WR, and a TE.  They can get depth on the OL drafting in round 3-6. On defense they obviously need and edge rusher and a CB. That is what I would be looking at with those 4 picks in the first two rounds.

After that go find football players cause they do need a bunch still

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16 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I've been calling to favor offense for some time but in reality, just draft good players for gods sakes and have a good plan of attacking problem areas.

Exactly.  As long as you draft a few quality players at premium positions, you're in good shape. 

For instance, the Steelers having a guy like T.J. Watt on defense frees them up to push all their chips into offense, including replacing Big Ben, this coming offseason.  And the Rams having the most dominant non-QB in the league in Aaron Donald allowed them to go "all in" on a Super Bowl this year.  

Note that I'm certainly not saying its easy to find a special player like a Watt or a Donald.  Only saying that if you find a quality EDGE guy or 2 (just look at the Bucs), you can focus your resources on offense.

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