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Good news for the “All-in on offense” crowd?


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18 minutes ago, Copernicus said:

I mentioned earlier that I am not in favor of Linderbaum at 4. Today, Im feeling that if the Jets took him at 10 I'd be ok with it, but rather if they took Linderbaum, it would be after a trade out of 10 

I see him as a pick 14-18.  I'm liking a lot of the OL in this draft, though.  I think Zion Johnson at Guard instantly makes McGovern a better Center.  And he's a 2nd RD. prospect most likely.  Even better, I like Trevor Penning at RT, he's got a lot of nasty and I don't think Becton is playing football in 3 years TBH.

 

 

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I said this a while back in another thread and I'll say it again here.  I'd be thrilled with a 7-10, 8-9 season losing games 42-35.

You can throw me in the gallows, but in my eyes and likely in the eyes of ownership, everything pre-Saleh doesn't count.

This is year 2 of the rebuild and JD will get at least through the end of 2023 to make the playoffs.  Barring just an absolute epic whiff on drafts and FAs, JD and Saleh don't hit the hot seat until 2024.

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19 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

I think you are right Sperm.  I look to see the Jets acquire 2-3 big pieces for the offense in F/A, and 'fill in' the rest with the draft.

I expect a couple of major pieces of draft capital being spent on the opposite side of the ball.

I hope so.

Add serious veteran starters: WR1, TE1, RG (should be the big 3 FA targets).

Add veteran depth for the offense: RT2, WR5/SlotWR2, QB2, 3rd down back who can pick up a blitz. Probably another guard to swap for GVR.

I’d spend a bit more on a RT2 (for obvious reasons); not where I’d look to save $3-5MM for 1 season, which doubly retains both our high 1st rounders to use elsewhere.

(Admittedly, I haven’t looked much at FA defenders yet.)

They may add another earlier pick in trading down, but that’s too hard to plan here. So trade-down draft scenarios aside:

First 2 draft rounds (ideally; I’m not the one to grade by name) Edge, WR1*, plus the two BAP among LB, CB, S, and maybe TE2. Depends which unexpected opportunity fell to us.

(The * for drafted WR1* isn’t an instead-of-a-FA note. It means this is the difference-maker position [far more than OT] where I’d double up; he can be eased into action to earn playing time since it’s not a starting-or-benched position group like OL, and I’d easily rather target making Davis expendable in ‘23 than Fant (or Becton until we see how he bounces back). If Davis rebounds - and even if he doesn’t - this WR corps goes from garbage late last year to deadly; and/or Davis could be a trade-deadline option, too, if there are no injuries and there aren’t enough passes to go around.)

Rounds 3-4: the two leftover draft positions from above, plus C/G. But again, it’s not so easy to lock into a position before the draft (let alone in early Feb before the the combine, FA, and our first 4 picks).

Extend before the draft: Fant. Perfectly adequate pass blocker, in a blocking scheme that’s slow to integrate, who won’t be a bank breaker. Don’t rock the boat here.

Maybe extend later this season or offseason: QW. No rush; it can wait until after the draft, but adding 2 edge rushers to the starting line should drop those double teams & balloon his numbers (and with that, his demands), so maybe get in before that happens. He’s not Aaron Donald II, but no one else is anyway. Also I’d hold off on McGovern until at least the summer, since I’d like them to target a C/G in round 3 - I think I read that’s where the next-best center prospect(s) should go - and want them to first see if they think they landed their 2023+ center before locking into McGovern.

***

Things change unexpectedly, but least on paper this builds a solid OL with redundancy at all 5 positions; a deadly WR corps; a good TE (maybe a good TE duo); doesn’t hang the D out to dry again; nor put 3-4 rookie starters on the offense around Wilson.

 

 

Note: if any of these become bad ideas in hindsight I’ll delete this post and any posts that quote it. #modskills

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56 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Pass rush looks deep in this draft. If Hutchinson and Thibodeau are not there at number 4 then I have no problem waiting until later, including the early 2nd round to get an edge guy.

In fact, I could see a scenario where the Jets go something like OT and WR, and then use those two early pics in Round 2 to trade back into the 1st for something like the fourth best edge rusher.

I agree mostly, I would rather they trade their 3rd and one of their 2nds to move back in the 1st round. You could be looking at Walker, Ojabo or Johnson sitting in the low 20's. And if PFF complains about it, then you know you did the right thing.

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2 hours ago, Copernicus said:

Excellent post. I cant imagine what it must be for Joe Douglas at this point. Last draft discussions were so intense and we were really/only focussing on QB. This upcoming draft is no holds bar and can go in any direction. What positions can be eliminated at #4 and #10? QB? TE? There's even a safety that can be possibly taken that high and it fills an absolute need for us. At #35 and #38 we can feel pretty confident eliminating taking a QB, and that's about it. These next few weeks are gonna be real fun to debate. 

Thank you and likewise excellent post.
In my opinion, JD is in a great spot, he has two top 10 picks, which is extremely rare for any GM, and with all the other picks he’s retained in the subsequent rounds he has considerable flexibility to manoeuvre and manipulate the draft….something he’s shown a willingness to do and a real flair for in his two drafts so far.

As you pointed out, the elimination of QB pretty much leaves him primed to go any way he likes or how the board falls, we really are in ‘best available player’ territory, especially as our biggest need(pass rush) aligns perfectly with the depth of talent early and all the way through to the early 2nd round if not beyond..….he’s in a fantastic position.

My only personal bug-bear is the insistence we keep drafting offensive linemen and IMO contemplating a T or a T we want to convert to OG is insanity at No 4 and No 10….if we traded back from 10 and gained significant future draft picks then I can see an argument for taking yet another OL but really we should be looking to the abundance of talent that will still be available in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds

I can even get on board with the Hamilton pick at S if, and it’s a big if, he truly is that much of a difference maker although I’m not sure he actually is and his injury history has to be considered. And we know how that pick will go down like a Sh!t sandwich in the peanut gallery if it were to happen …unlikely but would be tremendously entertaining 

whether Douglas sees it that way we’ll find out in due course 

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14 minutes ago, Claymation said:

I agree mostly, I would rather they trade their 3rd and one of their 2nds to move back in the 1st round. You could be looking at Walker, Ojabo or Johnson sitting in the low 20's. And if PFF complains about it, then you know you did the right thing.

With THE WORST defense in the nfl i can’t see the jets going offense 2x in round 1 after using their top 4 picks last year on offense.  One pick in round 1 will be D.  I think FA will dictate to some extent which position of OL/DE/WR is not addressed in round 1.  The interesting decision may be at 4 when the clear BAP is someone like ekongwu and then at 10 it’s one of the wrs staring them in the face but they’re reluctant to go offense twice.  Ultimately i think OL won’t be addressed until round 2.

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Building a strong OL and having a surplus of weapons doesn't mean ignoring the defense. The Jets have enough resources between FA and the draft to finish building the offense and start to fix the defense.

WR1/RG: We need to sign one. Whichever one is not addressed in FA, use one of the 1st to fill the other

TE: sign a player AND draft a player in the 2nd

WR4: sign a guy or use a 4th

RB: add a player in the 4th

Offense Complete!

Even with allocating these assets to the offense, we will still be able to sign a veteran safety and use a 1st on an edge and a 2nd/3rd on a LB/S.

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1 hour ago, usanyj said:

This was Connor Rogers… Connor Hughes was busy complaining about being in the rain at the senior bowl to get this scoop.

My b, I'm used to hard hitting content like this from Hughes, so just assumed.

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1 hour ago, hawk said:

I dont think the defense is as far away as most people think it is.  Carl Lawson alone, if he returns to form, could transform the defensive line.  

Perhaps a Marcus Williams in Free Agency to roam around in the secondary.

A second training camp for some of the young guys....

Who knows.

I don’t disagree with you that perhaps a couple of players can make a significant difference to improving our D but where I am coming from is that those players realistically need to be targeted early with the high draft picks and the big FA dollars…of course good players are found throughout the draft but the great pass rushers (generally) go very early and never reach FA for a reason.

I really hope you are right about Carl Lawson and getting him back can’t hurt but I just don’t think that you can  a) rely on him being dominant after that type of injury (some would argue he’s never been dominant, other than against Becton in TC last summer) ..and b) that Carl Lawson alone was ever going to be enough to address the need to put opposing QB’s under pressure.
I believe we needed at least another elite edge opposite him and that need remains. I just don’t see anything from JFM at all to justify any belief he’s the answer, at least not at DE, there’s some merit to the thought he could slide inside to DT and be effective but the evidence of last year is he’s not much of a factor against the run. I like Bryce Huff but purely as a rotational player. guys like Huff and JFM could be much more effective in a rotation behind Lawson and Hutchinson or Jermaine Johnson.

otherwise agree a guy like Williams helps shore up a key need, I like how Douglas approached the secondary last year adding 5 rookies in the latter rounds and FA, would love to see us do the same thing with another position in 2022 and yes those younger players should improve with another year under their belts

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I'm a big mark for building a very strong OL, but I think JD needs to grab one or two defensive players with those first 4 picks.  Certainly one needs to be an edge.

As for OL, the Jets need more young talent...a decent young OT and an IOL, even if Moses is retained.  AVT is the only good young guy (Becton cannot be counted on for anything...he might totally bust this next year).  Time to wave bye bye to the Edogas and McDermotts of the world.

However, they don't necessarily need to take an OL in the first round.  The only first round OL I hope the Jets consider is Linderbaum at 10 (assuming the Jets don't trade down), sliding McGovern to RG.  I would not reach for him at 4, though.  The OT class looks very deep, so taking one in the 2nd or 3rd round would be fine. And I won't cry if the Jets pass on Linderbaum for, say, a WR or LB.

I don't agree with the "you can't take OL in the first round three years in a row" crowd b/c JD is still trying to build a line after 5 long years of Mike Mac nearly totally ignoring it (three picks in 5 years, with a late 3rd rounder being the earliest).  And, frankly, JD may have whiffed with his 2020 OL picks.  Having said that, this draft looks strong in the last half of the first and all of the 2nd round, so JD does not have to take an OL in the first.

I'd be happy with something like Edge, WR, OL and TE with the first four picks (not necessarily in that order).  Then another OL in the 3rd or 4th round.  Maybe get a LB in there somewhere.

 

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1 hour ago, hawk said:

I dont think the defense is as far away as most people think it is.  Carl Lawson alone, if he returns to form, could transform the defensive line.  

Perhaps a Marcus Williams in Free Agency to roam around in the secondary.

A second training camp for some of the young guys....

Who knows.

The other thing with the defense -- just killed by injuries last year. When you're young and thin to begin with you can't really overcome that.

The defense is probably far away from "good" but I don't think it's that far away from respectable.

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9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

With THE WORST defense in the nfl i can’t see the jets going offense 2x in round 1 after using their top 4 picks last year on offense.  One pick in round 1 will be D.  I think FA will dictate to some extent which position of OL/DE/WR is not addressed in round 1.  The interesting decision may be at 4 when the clear BAP is someone like ekongwu and then at 10 it’s one of the wrs staring them in the face but they’re reluctant to go offense twice.  Ultimately i think OL won’t be addressed until round 2.

That's why I have them moving back into the 1st to select an edge. I think the drop off from Neal/Ekwonu/Cross to Penning is far greater than Thib/Hutch to Walker/Johnson/Ojabo. I want either Wilson or London at 10, they both have unique skillsets that the Jets sorely lack.

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1 hour ago, sirlancemehlot said:

I see him as a pick 14-18.  I'm liking a lot of the OL in this draft, though.  I think Zion Johnson at Guard instantly makes McGovern a better Center.  And he's a 2nd RD. prospect most likely.  Even better, I like Trevor Penning at RT, he's got a lot of nasty and I don't think Becton is playing football in 3 years TBH.

 

 

Jake Asman had Russell Brown on his YouTube who is in Mobile at the practices and said he wouldnt be surprised if Penning, Zion Johnson, and Mc Bride all went at the end of the first round

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27 minutes ago, freestater said:

With the exception of one of the top two edge guys falling to us at 4, I'm totally down with using the top picks on offense offense offense. If Saleh can't coach up his defense then he ain't "the guy".

Our defense was as tough as wet newspaper.  We need resources dedicated to it, either by FA or draft picks.

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I think the key player in this draft for us is Hamilton. If he's there at #4, we will positively be able to trade down. Something I think we should do. My 1st rd selections at this point would be Drake Londen and Amhed Gardner. 2nd rd, would be Trey Mcbride and Travon Walker. I think Spem is spot on about us either trading for or signing as a FA a proven wideout. Who that might be, I have no idea

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1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Drake London at 4?

Do you think he rises this high? Im more inclined to take an edge (even if Thibs and Hutch are off the board or maybe Ikey). I have seen London as high as 10 but not at high as 4. Lots to take in. 

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4 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Great, I’m all for it…….but you can help your young QB and offense a lot more by having a great (actually I’ll settle for even moderately competent) defense.

It’s all well and good having a nasty, dominant, “powerhouse” OL, with it’s 5 top 10 picks (plus Becton for depth) but if your defense is routinely giving up 8-12 minute scoring drives and your offense is only seeing the ball once or twice a half then all the offensive talent in the world isn’t going to be much good.

It’s a team game and we need a D that can hold up it’s end of the bargain. We’ll be shipping 35-50 points a game again unless there’s major focus on improving the unit this off-season. We cannot afford to ‘prioritise’ any unit over the other.

The OL improved significantly as the season wore on, with continuity and familiarity of system, plus the addition of a RG or maybe C(McGovern is better than he gets credit for)it’s fair to expect that to continue. The skill position are in more serious need of investment for sure. WR & TE urgently need an infusion of talent and we can certainly use another RB to help Carter but if we don’t seriously upgrade our pass rush and tighten up against the run then poor Zachary/Mike White/Whoever is gonna be playing catch up from the gun and having to put up 30 points just to keep it competitive.

 

 

They aren't ignoring the D, they will be getting some excellent players in FA and after the second round I think. Still could go pass rusher with the first overall pick. But, you do not help your young QB by spending marquee picks on D. It doesn't help Zach's confidence if all of his receivers are hurt and he keeps getting the ball back so he can throw to no-one. That ruins a QB. Our D is already light years better than last year when our best player comes back - Carl Lawson. If he is healthy our D is totally different from the first game. Also, we'll be signing some linebackers and corner backs. After edge, the marquee picks all need to be on offense IMO. It's way more important and fun having a prolific offense every week, even if we lose 41-38, it helps the QB immensely which is the only thing that will make the Jets compete for a Super Bowl in the future. You're not beating Mahones, Allen, Burrow without your QB reaching close to an elite level. 

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4 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Great news! Having a surplus of weapons would be welcomed. 

Yeah... And adding Ekwonu with their first overall pick.  Best player in the draft and unlike Big Ticket, Ekwonu is going to be a regular pro bowler at LT for many years.  Other than franchise QB, that is the next best thing to have. 

Big Ticket can play RT if he ever shows up, or he can vanish...

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5 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Nothing hurts a defense more than a bunch of three and outs by your offense.  A good offense has a tendency to make a defense look respectable.  I'm not saying ignore the defense but Zach and the O have to come first.

Yes, and a defense that gets to play with a lead looks much better

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I think the good news for those who are like, yo! the D was horrible, we cant ignore it is...

The offense is already, very good.  This isnt a knock on Zach but we saw it when he went down that this offense can put up a ton of yards and score.  They dropped 34 points and 510 yards of offense vs. the AFC Champions w/ a backup QB making his first ever start.  The offense doesnt need an overhaul.  It's actually very close and really can be completely fixed with just a strong FA class, they really dont have to spend picks on offense.

Literally, all they have to do is; Resign Moses, sign and/or draft a mid-round IOL, sign a veteran TE and WR and also target both in the draft where it makes sense and literally, the offense is fixed, and you barely lifted a finger. 

 

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1 minute ago, Greensleeves said:

They aren't ignoring the D, they will be getting some excellent players in FA and after the second round I think. Still could go pass rusher with the first overall pick. But, you do not help your young QB by spending marquee picks on D. It doesn't help Zach's confidence if all of his receivers are hurt and he keeps getting the ball back so he can throw to no-one. That ruins a QB. Our D is already light years better than last year when our best player comes back - Carl Lawson. If he is healthy our D is totally different from the first game. Also, we'll be signing some linebackers and corner backs. After edge, the marquee picks all need to be on offense IMO. It's way more important and fun having a prolific offense every week, even if we lose 41-38, it helps the QB immensely which is the only thing that will make the Jets compete for a Super Bowl in the future. You're not beating Mahones, Allen, Burrow without your QB reaching close to an elite level. 

first - no guarantee that JD will be able to land "excellent players" in FA.  Second, no guarantee that Carl Lawson will come back at anywhere near his peak form.

Which LBs and CBs are available in FA?  Are we the only suitors for their services?

2021 FA and draft had a lot of resources go to the offense.  In 2022 unfortunately we have to spend some resources for defense.

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10 minutes ago, J_Smith said:

Yes, and a defense that gets to play with a lead looks much better

I'm reminded of how obsessed Rex was with the ranking of his Defenses, but his Jets teams were ranked near the top defenses for a couple of years in large part because he had one of the best OLs in the league.  The O was able to eat up the clock with long drives, keeping the D off the field and fresh.  Really made the D's job way easier and made its numbers look much better than if the O couldn't move the ball.

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1 hour ago, peebag said:

Our defense was as tough as wet newspaper.  We need resources dedicated to it, either by FA or draft picks.

I agree. But the only non offense pick i want in the 1st round is a top notch edge and thats it. Other than that I want WR, OT, C, or TE in the first couple rounds

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46 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

I'm reminded of how obsessed Rex was with the ranking of his Defenses, but his Jets teams were ranked near the top defenses for a couple of years in large part because he had one of the best OLs in the league.  The O was able to eat up the clock with long drives, keeping the D off the field and fresh.  Really made the D's job way easier and made its numbers look much better than if the O couldn't move the ball.

Yes, the offense dominated the games and kept the D fresher later in games.  If saleh/douglas want to follow the 49er blueprint then someone like ekongwu will get major consideration.  Ultimately i still think the jets take OL and pass rusher in round 1 and leave wr/te to day 2.

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