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Jets high on Kyle Hamilton?


Zachtomims47
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Few thoughts on this.

1) Hamilton is a VERY different prospect from Adams.  Comparing them because they both played Safety is a bit simplistic.  First of all, Adams was 6' 0" 214 lbs. while Hamilton is 6'4" 220 lbs. and expected to be a little faster than Adams.  Adams was lauded for being a 'leader' but he was never known as a great coverage guy even at LSU.  Hamilton had more INTs, more PBUs and more FRs in less games than Adams over their respective 3-year careers.  He's just physically a bigger, faster, better player.  Adams had more tackles.  That was his game then and it's his game now.  Ironic that the Saleh started trying to convert Safeties to LB when Adams was really sort of the prototype for that.

2) I agree 100% that #4 feels too high for Hamilton, but I would actually not think #10 is, especially given that we have two picks that early.  The problem is that #10 seems like the sweet spot to draft a top WR and I think that's a bigger need.  If the Jets feel that one of the WRs available is close to the same in terms of draft grade and overall career potential, that would be the smarter pick IMO.

3) I'd have to go back and really look, but when you look at sacks versus pressures vs. 'almost but not quite' plays, I wonder if we were victimized by opposing players getting open too quickly, resulting in shorter snap-to-pass times against us.  Shoring up the defense with a substantial upgrade in the secondary might be more helpful than many here believe.  I am not, in any way, an expert on this, but I have to trust Saleh to be.  

Having said all that, what I would do doesn't mean I would automatically disparage the team for doing something different.  IF they draft Hamilton at #10, I am willing to trust that it might turn out to be a very good move for the near future.  I felt comfortable saying I was smarter about this than Idzik and Macc because they proved over time they were really bad GMs.  JD has had a bad year and a good year.  Had the Jets batted .500 in draft classes over the past 10 years, they would be a very different and far better team today. JD still gets my benefit of the doubt pending this year's draft.

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  • Re trade down from 4, who is trading up?  Does the trade down take us too far down, so we miss the players we like?
  • You can really see how Mac picked Adams and QW-those were the highest floor players.  Plenty of players were picked below them that did not work out.  Years ago the Jets drafted Gholston because he had the most upside at 6.  How did that work out?  We were better off with Jarrod Mayo.  
  • The Becton high upside pick is also not looking great, as is the Mims pick.  People think he reached at 14 for a LG, but no one is complaining about that, and the 3rd round in that draft does not look that great either-we did not miss much trading those picks.  
  • JD has to make this team much better in 2022 and make the playoffs in 2023.
  • So if he needs to take Karlaftis, or Ekwenu, or Hamilton at 4, and that makes the Jets a better team, so be it.  The question I have is whether its worth reaching for Jermain Johnson or a WR.  
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2 hours ago, varjet said:
  • Re trade down from 4, who is trading up?  Does the trade down take us too far down, so we miss the players we like?
  • You can really see how Mac picked Adams and QW-those were the highest ceiling players.  Plenty of players were picked below them that did not work out.  Years ago the Jets drafted Gholston because he had the most upside at 6.  How did that work out?  We were better off with Jarrod Mayo.  
  • The Becton high upside pick is also not looking great, as is the Mims pick.  People think he reached at 14 for a LG, but no one is complaining about that, and the 3rd round in that draft does not look that great either-we did not miss much trading those picks.  
  • JD has to make this team much better in 2022 and make the playoffs in 2023.
  • So if he needs to take Karlaftis, or Ekwenu, or Hamilton at 4, and that makes the Jets a better team, so be it.  The question I have is whether its worth reaching for Jermain Johnson or a WR.  

The idea is the strength of this draft is in its depth among the next 2-3 dozen picks, rather than it being limited to 5 blue chip prospects before a steep drop-off. Now I’m going by what others say not from my own draft class grading, so I can’t back it up with prospect names, but that seems to be said plenty.

Adams was most definitely not a highest-ceiling player. He was drafted to be a good or great player who’d be a culture changer, and MM (and perhaps Bowles) weighed the latter too heavily. The highest-ceiling player would’ve been either of the two star QBs he passed on drafting instead. For a QB-less team like the 2017 Jets, a safety is a low ceiling player. I’m pretty sure he was drafted because he was a high floor player, not a high ceiling player. 

The Becton pick - provided he starts this year, which I do expect - is actually an example of why a high value position is better. Say he was just a decent but not great LT; or if Fant didn’t come out of nowhere to become an excellent pass blocker, Becton instead becomes better than that at RT. Now go into FA and try shopping for either of those: you’re going to be dropping $16-18MM/year easy unless you’re signing someone well into his 30s or with noteworthy injury history of his own. Try shopping for a just-ok safety and it’ll not only cost half that but they’re easier to find in FA and later in the draft. 

The upside is what should make someone a top 10 (never mind top 5) pick, where even 75% of what you’d hoped is still filling an expensive, desired hole. If Douglas is too chicken**** to take a high value position there, while the team has holes at high value positions, then just trade down & pocket the extra day 1-2 pick(s), even if the return isn’t as good it is in other years.

jmo ;) 

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19 hours ago, Bugg said:

Under the PI rules as now enforced, there is never going to be another Reed or Polamalu.

You can get a decent safety in March. And you won't have to hem and haw in years 2-4 about whether he's worth a 2nd big ass contract. 

Rams are starting a safety in the Super Bowl they signed off the street after 2 years of being retired. 

Drafting a guy who may blow up to be an ILB; why not simply draft a LB? 

Would be the most Jets thing ever to pick Hamilton, and either discover he's a small ILB or merely a  decent safety. And then spend several years either looking to trade him or worse, sign him to a stupid 2nd contract. Those 2 1sr rounders have to be among and between OL, edge, WR. Outside, may be a corner or TE.  How many times will this franchise make the same draft day mistakes? 

If you have to hem and haw after year 2 if a guy is worth a big contract, he was by definition a good pick.  Also, I think they were talking about Hamilton at 10 more than 4.

People like to harp on the Adams pick.  The horror of the Adams pick was that we needed a QB and passed on two excellent QBs for him.  Still, people want to talk up the Niners, the Bengals, the Titans?  They took Solomon Thomas, John Ross and Corey Davis ahead of those guys.  We are going to call WR a "premium position" over safety to the point where Davis and Ross were better picks than a guy that net us multiple first rounders?  You discount the player because of the position, you don't close your eyes, put your hands over your ears and recite lalalalalala until the draft is over.  I also think safety is more "premium" for these guys than for Bowles where it was often just nickel LB. 

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41 minutes ago, varjet said:

Re trade down from 4, who is trading up?  Does the trade down take us too far down, so we miss the players we like?

The absolute best case scenario for a trade down would be one of QBs rising high enough that there’s a perception that either the jints or Panthers would like to take him right after the Jets’ pick. Maybe it’s the only scenario, but I wouldn’t rule it out just yet. 

41 minutes ago, varjet said:

You can really see how Mac picked Adams and QW-those were the highest ceiling players.  Plenty of players were picked below them that did not work out.  Years ago the Jets drafted Gholston because he had the most upside at 6.  How did that work out?  We were better off with Jarrod Mayo.

I really disagree here. I think Adams and QW were far more high floor guys than high ceiling guys. In Adams draft, the real (now obvious) high ceiling guys were the QBs, and in QW’s draft, (Edge) Josh Allen, Devin White, and Ed Oliver all looked to have higher ceilings at the time. To me, the picks Mac made were safe, unlikely to bust selections rather than swinging for the fences. 

41 minutes ago, varjet said:

The Becton high upside pick is also not looking great, as is the Mims pick.  People think he reached at 14 for a LG, but no one is complaining about that, and the 3rd round in that draft does not look that great either-we did not miss much trading those picks.  

Now JD did some swinging in his first draft, no doubt. Then he did a complete turn around in his second despite taking another OL and WR. When it comes to judging JD’s ability to draft, I think the fact that people can get better at something after the first time they ever do it is really a thing should come into play. Being partnered with Saleh over Gase is probably another factor. It seemed like the two men were just about 100% in step with last year’s draft, and that featured premium positions early and secondary positions late. 
 
I’m sure JD agrees with you about the task at hand, I doubt that will lead him to leave his playbook, though. The trenches and receiving help have been his priority in two years running the team, and I expect that to continue. It’s time to do something genuine at the TE (helping both in the trenches and with receptions), and after two high picks on the OL, a highly drafted Edge seems very likely - and a safety just doesn’t. Hitting on a rookie Edge is a home run, even if he’s just good. Good Edges, like Carl Lawson, make $15M/year. There are 15 Edges who average more than that a year, with the top guys up above $25M/year. Only three safeties average more than $15M/year, led by Jamal Adams. That’s why you stick to premium positions it’s premium picks. Getting a good-great QB, Edge, WR beats a good-great safety every day. 

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On 2/6/2022 at 9:36 AM, Zachtomims47 said:

Just because I enjoy chaos…

-Word has it they're high on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, projected as a top-10 pick. That might seem rich for a safety, considering it's a non-premium position, but Hamilton is viewed by some evaluators as a unicorn.

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/88833/can-new-york-jets-copy-cat-bengals-rise-robert-saleh-preaches-patience
 

On Fire Burn GIF by Us

This would be so Mac like, Idzik like, Tanny like and the list goes on.  

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5 minutes ago, slats said:

The absolute best case scenario for a trade down would be one of QBs rising high enough that there’s a perception that either the jints or Panthers would like to take him right after the Jets’ pick. Maybe it’s the only scenario, but I wouldn’t rule it out just yet. 

I really disagree here. I think Adams and QW were far more high floor guys than high ceiling guys. In Adams draft, the real (

I get the feeling that the Giants have taken themselves off the board in terms of a QB that high.  Maybe it's well-blown smoke, but Schoen and Daboll have said all the right things about Jones.  

Or was that Schoen and Flores.  I get them confused.

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On 2/6/2022 at 8:36 AM, Zachtomims47 said:

Just because I enjoy chaos…

-Word has it they're high on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, projected as a top-10 pick. That might seem rich for a safety, considering it's a non-premium position, but Hamilton is viewed by some evaluators as a unicorn.

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/88833/can-new-york-jets-copy-cat-bengals-rise-robert-saleh-preaches-patience
 

On Fire Burn GIF by Us

Everyday life as a Jets fan. Hamilton has absolutely nothing to do with your chaos! 

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The thing I dislike about these types of situations is that fan desires or lack of desire for the position lead to misguided  comments about the player.   Hamilton is a stud.  Period.  It’s quite possible he’d be the best player on the defense as a rookie.  

That doesn’t mean I want to take him and I’m fairly certain they wont(not at 4 at least) but he’s a stud and we need an influx of those.  

My little side note is that a combo Safety who can play the run and pass effectively is a much bigger part stopping modern offenses than they get credit for.

 

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22 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Yeah some of it has some miles on it. I buy a new driver every other year, 3 wood is probably 4 years old but my irons are at least 12-13 years old lol. Buying me, my son and my son-in-law all new irons this year. Got them Scotty Cameron putters for Christmas 2 years ago, mine is 3. Will never buy another putter. So good. 

I run a golf course haha I ordered myself a new iron set this year

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I think one other thing to factor in is that, even if Hamiltion is good, how long before we have to pay him big money?  I think we had Jamal 2 years before he wanted a big contract.  And probably having the highest paid S (unless it's an true great) might not be the best long-term strategy for a successful team.  But I've been back-and-forth on the idea of drafting Hamilton.  My trust is in JD.

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15 minutes ago, football guy said:

The Jets are going to be high on a lot of players this cycle, but Kyle Hamilton may end up being the Kyle Pitts of this cycle. Last year, I know for sure they were infatuated with Kyle Pitts. Whether or not it was the primary plan, there were discussions about trading down from #2 and putting themselves in position to draft Pitts had they decided to stick with Darnold. There were also discussions of putting themselves in position to have a second pick in the top 8 when they decided they would make Darnold available to other teams. So while I tend to lean towards the Jets prioritizing the lines, it would not shock me if they selected Hamilton given his "unicorn" status in a draft that lacks elite top-end talent. 

I don't think that necessarily means they will draft the player in a specific spot, but there are a few things they will prioritize: 

  1. They want players who love football 
  2. They want players who put the team first 
  3. They want players who are students of the game  
  4. They want players who play fast 
  5. They want players who play strong 

When you consider Hamilton's rare ability and factor in the enumerated (he epitomizes all of them), it's easy to see why the Jets would love Hamilton on the surface. The lone asterisk is that he does not play a premium position.

The Jets will spend plenty of time meeting to discuss how the coaching staff would use Hamilton if they were to draft him, and it will be interesting to find out whether their concepts would be enough for Douglas to pull the trigger on him. Saleh and Ulbrich are very committed to their schemes, but they've been more liberal with how they position the safeties than the scheme traditionally calls for. They will likely point to Kam Chancellor's usage in Seattle and how they tried using Marcus Maye last season as evidence of how they would use Hamilton. Initially they used Chancellor primarily as a FS/SS, frequently lining up 8+ yards from the LOS the majority of the time, then they shifted him closer to the LOS more frequently (specifically on run plays) by lining him up as an "in-the-box" SS and in the slot in order to take advantage of his tackling and playmaking ability against the run. Marcus Maye, Ashtyn Davis, and Elijah Riley were used in similar ways, albeit not as effectively. The two things that all of the above rarely did? (1) Freelance; and (2) Blitz. Some schemes allow their best DBs to roam and cover the best player on the opposite side, or strictly read the QB and expand the range of their zone, or change the play/their assignment based on their initial read of the offense. That stuff is not allowed with Saleh. 

My guess is that Saleh and the coaching staff would primarily utilize Hamilton as a coverage player (Cover 3 deep, Cover 1 robber, and man coverage) and place him near the LOS on early downs to serve as an "enforcer" in the run game- he's among the best run defenders I've ever seen at his position. Unlike some of the game's top playmakers at the safety position, the Jets would likely require Hamilton to play within the scheme (no freelancing) and his rush opportunities would be minimal. The question Joe Douglas will need to answer: is it worth investing a premium asset in a player of his ilk to play the role Saleh would have in store for him, or should they invest that resource into a premium position and search for a S in free agency or later in the draft. 

The other aspect to all of this is strategy. Douglas and Saleh are on the same page regarding the desire to continue building up the trenches and in a vacuum they absolutely prioritize the DL and OL over S. However, this deep is extremely deep at those positions and they have many picks to address them. A scenario exists where they can take Hamilton at #4 and still land prime OL/DL talents at #10/#35/#38. 

 

It's still very early but the way I understand it:

  • WR is a priority, but they will attempt to add a veteran first. If they don't, it's hard to say they will definitely take on at a specific slot- anytime during Day 1 or Day 2 would be likely. I'm not sold they are "elite veteran/1st round or bust" at WR. 
  • If Hutchinson were available at #4 he would almost positively be the pick. 
  • OL is the favorite at #4, but there are a lot of voices who will petition defense (not necessarily Saleh). 
  • DE class is so loaded that the Jets can wait until the 2nd round and still come away with a stud (possibly 2).  

I think you answered your own question here. Not a Jet.

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

The Jets are going to be high on a lot of players this cycle, but Kyle Hamilton may end up being the Kyle Pitts of this cycle. Last year, I know for sure they were infatuated with Kyle Pitts. Whether or not it was the primary plan, there were discussions about trading down from #2 and putting themselves in position to draft Pitts had they decided to stick with Darnold. There were also discussions of putting themselves in position to have a second pick in the top 8 when they decided they would make Darnold available to other teams. So while I tend to lean towards the Jets prioritizing the lines, it would not shock me if they selected Hamilton given his "unicorn" status in a draft that lacks elite top-end talent. 

I don't think that necessarily means they will draft the player in a specific spot, but there are a few things they will prioritize: 

  1. They want players who love football 
  2. They want players who put the team first 
  3. They want players who are students of the game  
  4. They want players who play fast 
  5. They want players who play strong 

When you consider Hamilton's rare ability and factor in the enumerated (he epitomizes all of them), it's easy to see why the Jets would love Hamilton on the surface. The lone asterisk is that he does not play a premium position.

The Jets will spend plenty of time meeting to discuss how the coaching staff would use Hamilton if they were to draft him, and it will be interesting to find out whether their concepts would be enough for Douglas to pull the trigger on him. Saleh and Ulbrich are very committed to their schemes, but they've been more liberal with how they position the safeties than the scheme traditionally calls for. They will likely point to Kam Chancellor's usage in Seattle and how they tried using Marcus Maye last season as evidence of how they would use Hamilton. Initially they used Chancellor primarily as a FS/SS, frequently lining up 8+ yards from the LOS the majority of the time, then they shifted him closer to the LOS more frequently (specifically on run plays) by lining him up as an "in-the-box" SS and in the slot in order to take advantage of his tackling and playmaking ability against the run. Marcus Maye, Ashtyn Davis, and Elijah Riley were used in similar ways, albeit not as effectively. The two things that all of the above rarely did? (1) Freelance; and (2) Blitz. Some schemes allow their best DBs to roam and cover the best player on the opposite side, or strictly read the QB and expand the range of their zone, or change the play/their assignment based on their initial read of the offense. That stuff is not allowed with Saleh. 

My guess is that Saleh and the coaching staff would primarily utilize Hamilton as a coverage player (Cover 3 deep, Cover 1 robber, and man coverage) and place him near the LOS on early downs to serve as an "enforcer" in the run game- he's among the best run defenders I've ever seen at his position. Unlike some of the game's top playmakers at the safety position, the Jets would likely require Hamilton to play within the scheme (no freelancing) and his rush opportunities would be minimal. The question Joe Douglas will need to answer: is it worth investing a premium asset in a player of his ilk to play the role Saleh would have in store for him, or should they invest that resource into a premium position and search for a S in free agency or later in the draft. 

The other aspect to all of this is strategy. Douglas and Saleh are on the same page regarding the desire to continue building up the trenches and in a vacuum they absolutely prioritize the DL and OL over S. However, this deep is extremely deep at those positions and they have many picks to address them. A scenario exists where they can take Hamilton at #4 and still land prime OL/DL talents at #10/#35/#38. 

 

It's still very early but the way I understand it:

  • WR is a priority, but they will attempt to add a veteran first. If they don't, it's hard to say they will definitely take on at a specific slot- anytime during Day 1 or Day 2 would be likely. I'm not sold they are "elite veteran/1st round or bust" at WR. 
  • If Hutchinson were available at #4 he would almost positively be the pick. 
  • OL is the favorite at #4, but there are a lot of voices who will petition defense (not necessarily Saleh). 
  • DE class is so loaded that the Jets can wait until the 2nd round and still come away with a stud (possibly 2).  

This was a great post!  Your insight is always appreciated.

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4 minutes ago, football guy said:

In most years I would say they are attracted, but not ready to marry. 

This year anything is possible. 

F, marry, kill (from the NYJ's perspective as best as you know it) at pick 1.04:

Hamilton

Ekwonu

Thibs

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4 hours ago, football guy said:

The Jets are going to be high on a lot of players this cycle, but Kyle Hamilton may end up being the Kyle Pitts of this cycle. Last year, I know for sure they were infatuated with Kyle Pitts. Whether or not it was the primary plan, there were discussions about trading down from #2 and putting themselves in position to draft Pitts had they decided to stick with Darnold. There were also discussions of putting themselves in position to have a second pick in the top 8 when they decided they would make Darnold available to other teams. So while I tend to lean towards the Jets prioritizing the lines, it would not shock me if they selected Hamilton given his "unicorn" status in a draft that lacks elite top-end talent. 

I don't think that necessarily means they will draft the player in a specific spot, but there are a few things they will prioritize: 

  1. They want players who love football 
  2. They want players who put the team first 
  3. They want players who are students of the game  
  4. They want players who play fast 
  5. They want players who play strong 

When you consider Hamilton's rare ability and factor in the enumerated (he epitomizes all of them), it's easy to see why the Jets would love Hamilton on the surface. The lone asterisk is that he does not play a premium position.

The Jets will spend plenty of time meeting to discuss how the coaching staff would use Hamilton if they were to draft him, and it will be interesting to find out whether their concepts would be enough for Douglas to pull the trigger on him. Saleh and Ulbrich are very committed to their schemes, but they've been more liberal with how they position the safeties than the scheme traditionally calls for. They will likely point to Kam Chancellor's usage in Seattle and how they tried using Marcus Maye last season as evidence of how they would use Hamilton. Initially they used Chancellor primarily as a FS/SS, frequently lining up 8+ yards from the LOS the majority of the time, then they shifted him closer to the LOS more frequently (specifically on run plays) by lining him up as an "in-the-box" SS and in the slot in order to take advantage of his tackling and playmaking ability against the run. Marcus Maye, Ashtyn Davis, and Elijah Riley were used in similar ways, albeit not as effectively. The two things that all of the above rarely did? (1) Freelance; and (2) Blitz. Some schemes allow their best DBs to roam and cover the best player on the opposite side, or strictly read the QB and expand the range of their zone, or change the play/their assignment based on their initial read of the offense. That stuff is not allowed with Saleh. 

My guess is that Saleh and the coaching staff would primarily utilize Hamilton as a coverage player (Cover 3 deep, Cover 1 robber, and man coverage) and place him near the LOS on early downs to serve as an "enforcer" in the run game- he's among the best run defenders I've ever seen at his position. Unlike some of the game's top playmakers at the safety position, the Jets would likely require Hamilton to play within the scheme (no freelancing) and his rush opportunities would be minimal. The question Joe Douglas will need to answer: is it worth investing a premium asset in a player of his ilk to play the role Saleh would have in store for him, or should they invest that resource into a premium position and search for a S in free agency or later in the draft. 

The other aspect to all of this is strategy. Douglas and Saleh are on the same page regarding the desire to continue building up the trenches and in a vacuum they absolutely prioritize the DL and OL over S. However, this deep is extremely deep at those positions and they have many picks to address them. A scenario exists where they can take Hamilton at #4 and still land prime OL/DL talents at #10/#35/#38. 

 

It's still very early but the way I understand it:

  • WR is a priority, but they will attempt to add a veteran first. If they don't, it's hard to say they will definitely take on at a specific slot- anytime during Day 1 or Day 2 would be likely. I'm not sold they are "elite veteran/1st round or bust" at WR. 
  • If Hutchinson were available at #4 he would almost positively be the pick. 
  • OL is the favorite at #4, but there are a lot of voices who will petition defense (not necessarily Saleh). 
  • DE class is so loaded that the Jets can wait until the 2nd round and still come away with a stud (possibly 2).  

@football guy any chance they gamble on Godwin ? He would fit this offense perfectly but the acl is scary . What about engram or njoku for te ?

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6 hours ago, football guy said:

 

  • DE class is so loaded that the Jets can wait until the 2nd round and still come away with a stud (possibly 2).  

Great info. Really appreciate it as someone who lives on a different continent. But my understanding is that there are two clear stand-outs for edge players (Hutchinson and Thibodeaux) and then you're in among the players who start to have some shortcomings (as I believe), like Karlaftis, Ojabo, etc? Am I wrong?

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1 hour ago, Cbucco19 said:

@football guy any chance they gamble on Godwin ? He would fit this offense perfectly but the acl is scary . What about engram or njoku for te ?

ACL tears aren't career killers any more. I could see the Jets offering free agent money to Godwin (Buccaneers don't have a lot of cap space right now) or Michael Gallup (could be squeezed out of Dallas by lack of cap space and the emergence of Cedrick Wilson this season). 

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