Rumor: Braxton Berrios looking for $9m year

[jetstream23]

9 hours ago, Claymation said:

But none of that happened. Actually, Berrios was a reliable WR, more so than anyone else we had. I don't think he had one drop last year. Great route runners who are quick and have excellent hands are hard to come by. The Jets had one last year, they need to retain that player. If it's 7-9 million for 3 years guaranteed for 14-18 then so be it.

Again, I like him.  My point is simply about how much we should like him.  He's a top returner, that's valuable.  He is (or should be) a solid WR4/5 on a very good offense.  I can't see Joe Douglas paying more than $7M per year for that.  JD may prove me wrong if he compounds Berrios' value the way I did (returner + being a WR4) AND is willing to pay a little more to maintain consistency for Zach Wilson and not create more turnover in the WR group.

If JD has plans to target an expensive veteran in a trade (ex. Amari Cooper) then I can't see him extending too much for Berrios after signing Corey Davis last offseason.  As was cited earlier in the thread, Andre Roberts gets about $2M per year as a primary returner and WR5.  A guy like Cole Beasley (a pretty good comp for Berrios IMO) gets about $7.5M per year I believe.  But Beasley has a bigger role on the Bills offense.  $7M ish just feels like the right number but what do I know!?!? 

 

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Corey Davis played in 7 less games than Berrios and still had more yards 

lol, you're silly, just stop it - Davis played 60 more snaps during the season, and only had 20 more total yards from scrimmage and they had the same amount of TD's and catches for 1st down. That's not even getting into the fact they are asked to do totally different things on the field.  Berrios also caught 70% of his balls, Davis caught 54%.   And that's just WR talk and not what Berrios provides on ST's.

[Rhg1084]

1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

lol, you're silly, just stop it - Davis played 60 more snaps during the season, and only had 20 more total yards from scrimmage and they had the same amount of TD's and catches for 1st down. That's not even getting into the fact they are asked to do totally different things on the field.  Berrios also caught 70% of his balls, Davis caught 54%.   And that's just WR talk and not what Berrios provides on ST's.

That’s cause all Berrios catches are 3 yards past the LOS ???

[Matt39]

3 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

That’s cause all Berrios catches are 3 yards past the LOS ???

Versatility ?

[Origen]

Hot damn I can't believe this is still getting talked about.  I guess when it comes out we'll know for sure but I'll stake my 5/$50 with 3/18(ish) guaranteed is how it will work out.  Works for both sides.  If he balls out and is worth $10-12M per that's what he gets year 4 and 5.  Or he sucks and we cut at year 2 or 3 with only a $6 or $12M hit instead of $44M

[usapaw]

I would love to keep him but, pass. He is a nice story. I might go 5 million a year for 3 years, 8 mill guaranteed, that's it. I would definitely be willing to incentivise the contract with escalators though. We have way more needs then to overpay him. 

[#90]

That is a hard pass.

I would go 14 Mill for 2 years or 21 for 3...tops

[Peace Frog]

1 hour ago, #90 said:

That is a hard pass.

I would go 14 Mill for 2 years or 21 for 3...tops

I would go $2 million for 14 years or $3 million for 21 years. 

Tops. 

Bobby Bonilla style. 

[Dunnie]

How is his comp Cole Beasley? Beasley has had over 80 catches and almost 1000 yards receiving in each of his last two seasons. Berrios puts up production like that?!!!

Child Please ... Beasley had NEVER capped 1000 and last year was closer to 700. He was close in 2020 with 900+.

Please reference yards per reception.

Then please compare the 1st three years of his career to Berrios... then come back and discuss.

Basically the same exact player ... as i stated in my original post.

[Dunnie]

That’s cause all Berrios catches are 3 yards past the LOS

Ypr similar to Beasley.. hmmmmm.

[mrcoops]

Let's just pay Berrios a million dollars for every page that this thread runs.

He'll be richer than Jeff Bezos by the time free agency rolls around.

[mrcoops]

In reality, it really depends on the role that the Jets have in mind for Berrios going forward.

If they see him as, effectively, the starter at slot AND the starting KR/PR, then $9M a year doesn't seem too out of line.

If he's primarily seen as the KR/PR, and a backup WR who plays fairly regularly, then $9M is probably more than they will want to pay.

If another team sees him as a starting slot and the Jets don't, he'll be gone.  I hope the Jets and Berrios can work out something that suits them both, because he's a valuable player no matter what his role.

[JustInFudge]

11 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

That’s cause all Berrios catches are 3 yards past the LOS ???

lol yes, they're asked to do different things as WR"s, this is very common and an astute Football fan like you should know that but ultimately, what does it matter?  20 less yards, same amount of 1st downs and TD's w/ a higher catch rate just means they gain a hell of a lot more out of Berrios than they do Davis, sadly.  Also, Berrios was 3 for 3 on picking up 4th down attempts, they didnt even pass the ball to Davis on any 4th down tries probably because he's not anywhere near as reliable as Berrios. 

 

 

[jamesr]

1 hour ago, mrcoops said:

In reality, it really depends on the role that the Jets have in mind for Berrios going forward.

If they see him as, effectively, the starter at slot AND the starting KR/PR, then $9M a year doesn't seem too out of line.

If he's primarily seen as the KR/PR, and a backup WR who plays fairly regularly, then $9M is probably more than they will want to pay.

If another team sees him as a starting slot and the Jets don't, he'll be gone.  I hope the Jets and Berrios can work out something that suits them both, because he's a valuable player no matter what his role.

Agree so much with this. If LaFleur is looking at Berrios and saying "next year we can do X, Y and Z with him that we didn't do this year" then is future value >>> his current value.

If all they expect is a role player on offense that gets about the same playing time & yardage next year, plus the ST stays consistent, then his value is lower than the speculative $9m.

There will be negotiations - Joe D is in no rush to get BB signed and has no need to pay the player's (supposed) asking price without some to and fro. In fact he probably has a vested interest in NOT paying the asking price, looking ahead to future negotiations. He has to be seen as a tough but fair negotiator.

[PepPep]

18 hours ago, DonCorleone said:

Oh yeah there is so much more you can do with 9 Million per year. Corey Davis for example, 3 years 37 Million dollars. 12 1/3 per year average. He has been an absolute beast. Never drops a ball, is always healthy and is always open.

LOL. I mean the least thing you could have done is googled their stats for a simple comparison.

Am I huge fan of the Corey Davis signing? Not really. He has been hurt and had some key drops. But injuries happen and your comparison is not really fair. 

Corey Davis, in an off year where he only played 9 games due to injury, where he struggled with consistency and catching the ball and regularly drew the opposing teams top defender still had more yards and more TDs and almost as many catches ON FEWER TARGETS as Berrios (who played all 16 games and had arguably his best season). That's insane to think about. Frankly it shows how overhyped Berrios is and how much we seem to unnecessarily hate on Davis, who can still be a very good player for this team. And its not like Davis was spoon fed the ball when he did play. Him and Zach struggled to develop chemistry early on- not nec. because of Davis may I add, but because of Zach being thrown into the fire and learning on the fly.    

Davis- Games: 9, Trgs: 59, Catches: 34, Yards: 492, TDs: 4

Berrios- Games: 16, Trgs: 65, Catches: 46, Yards 431, TDs: 2*

*I do want to give Berrios credit for x2 RUSHING TDs. 

[DonCorleone]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

LOL. I mean the least thing you could have done is googled their stats for a simple comparison.

Am I huge fan of the Corey Davis signing? Not really. He has been hurt and had some key drops. But injuries happen and your comparison is not really fair. 

Corey Davis, in an off year where he only played 9 games due to injury, where he struggled with consistency and catching the ball and regularly drew the opposing teams top defender still had more yards and more TDs and almost as many catches ON FEWER TARGETS as Berrios (who played all 16 games and had arguably his best season). That's insane to think about. Frankly it shows how overhyped Berrios is and how much we seem to unnecessarily hate on Davis, who can still be a very good player for this team. And its not like Davis was spoon fed the ball when he did play. Him and Zach struggled to develop chemistry early on- not nec. because of Davis may I add, but because of Zach being thrown into the fire and learning on the fly.    

Davis- Games: 9, Trgs: 59, Catches: 34, Yards: 492, TDs: 4

Berrios- Games: 16, Trgs: 65, Catches: 46, Yards 431, TDs: 2*

*I do want to give Berrios credit for x2 RUSHING TDs. 

LOL nothing,

I can certainly appreciate Davis' stats. Again, he was simply unreliable. He was a monster in some games and non existent in others. The Jets have paid all the wrong players. How many times did Davis break a route to try and help his young QB? I saw him week in and week out, and only a handful of times did he come back to try and help. Am I a fan of giving 9 million dollars to Berrios? Absolutely not, but the Jets MUST start to hold on to those players that are able to stay on the field, play their hearts out, are reliable and are team players. 

[JohnnyLV]

I need to nominate this thread as the second dumbest only behind the other Berrios thread.

First of all, who in the fuucck made everyone an expert on salary limits for a player? And salary limits on whether he is a #3 or #4 receiver?

Second, do any of you actually realize how contracts even work? Even if we paid Berrios $9 million per, its not like he gets a flat $9 million a year. There are signing bonuses, roster bonuses, guarantees for skill and injury, likely to be earned (LTBE) incentives, N(ot)LTBE incentives which actually don't count against the cap and even workout bonuses for many players to get them into the offseason program. If we paid Berrios say 3 years $27 million with $15 million guaranteed, the cap hit in year one would be far less than $9 million and as the contract goes on the percentage of cap that goes to Berrios gets smaller against the cap even as the payouts and base increase

Speaking of cap hit, third, $9 million is 4.3% of our cap for 2023, so even if we paid him just a flat $9 million it has very little impact at all if any on any other moves. Do people really think that Berrios and all he does is not worth 1/25 of our cap?

Fourth, I will never in my life understand why Jets fans want to kick players to the curb that we developed them for contracts they view as "unreasonable" or above some BS arbitrary limit they came up with on their couch, but in the next breadth say we should pay some free agent whatever he wants to come here? Just bizzare

Fifth, why does anyone care what we pay our players? All we should care about is that we have as many players on our team that can make meaningful contributions and if you don't think Berrios makes very meaningful contributions to this team you are just being willfully obtuse.

 

[UntouchableCrew]

7 hours ago, JiFapono said:

lol yes, they're asked to do different things as WR"s, this is very common and an astute Football fan like you should know that but ultimately, what does it matter?  20 less yards, same amount of 1st downs and TD's w/ a higher catch rate just means they gain a hell of a lot more out of Berrios than they do Davis, sadly.  Also, Berrios was 3 for 3 on picking up 4th down attempts, they didnt even pass the ball to Davis on any 4th down tries probably because he's not anywhere near as reliable as Berrios. 

 

 

This was certainly true in 2021. Wouldn't you agree that's not what we want out of the offense and our WRs going forward?

[fltflo]

Love BB, followed him from the “U” to the Pats to the Jets. Reminds me a lot of Wayne C with his toughness and fire.
Would love to for him to remain a Jet. Having said that, 9 million a year for his presently used skills on this team is a bit steep. I certainly could see his role expending next season, do to his performances this year. If that is going to be the case then a reasonable contract bump is not unworthy. If his role remains the same,then 6 a year with a 13 million guaranteed is not outrageous. Yet, if his role is to be expanded then, 7 1/2 a year with 16 guaranteed is very reasonable.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[GreenReaper]

Berrios is not just a valuable Pro Bowl caliber returner.  He's also a hungry durable football player that's productive and entering his prime. 

Why wouldn't Braxton not be given his chance to compete for the starting slot receiver position?  Fant earned his chance to compete for the LT position.  I don't see why Berrios can't do the same for the slot position.  That's what Saleh's culture is all about.  Berrios reeks of all gas and no brakes with every drop of sweat that pours from his body.   You reinforce that culture by giving players like Braxton an opportunity to compete and earn a starting job.  You want a team comprised of players encouraged to be striving to upgrade their position on the team.  And be rewarded and paid for successfully doing so.  Isn't that what Saleh and the coaching staff say to the players?  Something like..."We want to help you be successful and make some money."  And money will not kill Berrios of his passion for the game.  Besides...asking for $9 million doesn't mean he wont settle for a penny less. 

IMO the chemistry between Berrios and ZW can grow into something more then what we saw in their first year of collaboration.  I'm anxious to see more of them together.  

So for me...yea...sign him!    

[Trotter]

4 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I need to nominate this thread as the second dumbest only behind the other Berrios thread.

First of all, who in the fuucck made everyone an expert on salary limits for a player? And salary limits on whether he is a #3 or #4 receiver?

Second, do any of you actually realize how contracts even work? Even if we paid Berrios $9 million per, its not like he gets a flat $9 million a year. There are signing bonuses, roster bonuses, guarantees for skill and injury, likely to be earned (LTBE) incentives, N(ot)LTBE incentives which actually don't count against the cap and even workout bonuses for many players to get them into the offseason program. If we paid Berrios say 3 years $27 million with $15 million guaranteed, the cap hit in year one would be far less than $9 million and as the contract goes on the percentage of cap that goes to Berrios gets smaller against the cap even as the payouts and base increase

Speaking of cap hit, third, $9 million is 4.3% of our cap for 2023, so even if we paid him just a flat $9 million it has very little impact at all if any on any other moves. Do people really think that Berrios and all he does is not worth 1/25 of our cap?

Fourth, I will never in my life understand why Jets fans want to kick players to the curb that we developed them for contracts they view as "unreasonable" or above some BS arbitrary limit they came up with on their couch, but in the next breadth say we should pay some free agent whatever he wants to come here? Just bizzare

Fifth, why does anyone care what we pay our players? All we should care about is that we have as many players on our team that can make meaningful contributions and if you don't think Berrios makes very meaningful contributions to this team you are just being willfully obtuse.

 

Gotta say there is not part of this post to argue with. Well done.

[Jetscode1]

[Smashmouth]

On 2/8/2022 at 4:29 PM, jetstream23 said:

Again, I like him.  My point is simply about how much we should like him.  He's a top returner, that's valuable.  He is (or should be) a solid WR4/5 on a very good offense.  I can't see Joe Douglas paying more than $7M per year for that.  JD may prove me wrong if he compounds Berrios' value the way I did (returner + being a WR4) AND is willing to pay a little more to maintain consistency for Zach Wilson and not create more turnover in the WR group.

If JD has plans to target an expensive veteran in a trade (ex. Amari Cooper) then I can't see him extending too much for Berrios after signing Corey Davis last offseason.  As was cited earlier in the thread, Andre Roberts gets about $2M per year as a primary returner and WR5.  A guy like Cole Beasley (a pretty good comp for Berrios IMO) gets about $7.5M per year I believe.  But Beasley has a bigger role on the Bills offense.  $7M ish just feels like the right number but what do I know!?!? 

 

Andre Roberts was targeted 2 times for a whopping 1 catch. Berrios not only outdid him in the return game but he also had 46 catches and 4 total TD's also playing in the back field at times. Roberts is a one trick pony and that's why he's in the 2m per range.

[Smashmouth]

6 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

Berrios is not just a valuable Pro Bowl caliber returner.  He's also a hungry durable football player that's productive and entering his prime. 

Why wouldn't Braxton not be given his chance to compete for the starting slot receiver position?  Fant earned his chance to compete for the LT position.  I don't see why Berrios can't do the same for the slot position.  That's what Saleh's culture is all about.  Berrios reeks of all gas and no brakes with every drop of sweat that pours from his body.   You reinforce that culture by giving players like Braxton an opportunity to compete and earn a starting job.  You want a team comprised of players encouraged to be striving to upgrade their position on the team.  And be rewarded and paid for successfully doing so.  Isn't that what Saleh and the coaching staff say to the players?  Something like..."We want to help you be successful and make some money."  And money will not kill Berrios of his passion for the game.  Besides...asking for $9 million doesn't mean he wont settle for a penny less. 

IMO the chemistry between Berrios and ZW can grow into something more then what we saw in their first year of collaboration.  I'm anxious to see more of them together.  

So for me...yea...sign him!    

Berrios can play along with Moore in 4 WR sets. In 3 WR sets Moore takes the slot and Berrios can attack from the backfield thats not a bad problem to have along with him being the best returner in the NFL. He's also good injury insurance for Moore who still has to prove he can play a full NFL season.

[JohnnyLV]

18 hours ago, Trotter said:

Gotta say there is not part of this post to argue with. Well done.

Thanks. I kept reading argue as agree and I was like there is nothing he agrees with?

[Dunnie]

LOL. I mean the least thing you could have done is googled their stats for a simple comparison.
Am I huge fan of the Corey Davis signing? Not really. He has been hurt and had some key drops. But injuries happen and your comparison is not really fair. 
Corey Davis, in an off year where he only played 9 games due to injury, where he struggled with consistency and catching the ball and regularly drew the opposing teams top defender still had more yards and more TDs and almost as many catches ON FEWER TARGETS as Berrios (who played all 16 games and had arguably his best season). That's insane to think about. Frankly it shows how overhyped Berrios is and how much we seem to unnecessarily hate on Davis, who can still be a very good player for this team. And its not like Davis was spoon fed the ball when he did play. Him and Zach struggled to develop chemistry early on- not nec. because of Davis may I add, but because of Zach being thrown into the fire and learning on the fly.    
Davis- Games: 9, Trgs: 59, Catches: 34, Yards: 492, TDs: 4
Berrios- Games: 16, Trgs: 65, Catches: 46, Yards 431, TDs: 2*
*I do want to give Berrios credit for x2 RUSHING TDs. 

Different positions really . . Did davis poay in the slot at all ? ...

Doesnt really matter... no 1 characteristic for an NFL receiver .. catch the damn ball.

Davis ... failed at being clutch.

[PepPep]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

Different positions really . . Did davis poay in the slot at all ? ...

Doesnt really matter... no 1 characteristic for an NFL receiver .. catch the damn ball.

Davis ... failed at being clutch.
 

I mean, yeah, different positions. Davis drew the top CB being on the outside. You are kind of proving my point for me lol. And again, I'm not a huge fan of Davis. But even with his drops and playing 7 less games than Berrios he STILL had more yards, more TDs and nearly as many catches on less targets. I mean, clutch or not clutch, thats production and numbers don't lie. Its easy to imagine a few extra games where he is healthy and getting into a rhythm with Zach would lead to numbers that would completely eclipse that of what Berrios did this season...and STILL that wouldn't be considered Davis's ceiling or a 'great year' for him. 

Bottom line- Davis is a better, more talented WR than Berrios. There should be no argument about that. Can he stay healthy? We will see. Does he deserve to get paid more? Well, every GM has his own take on value and what they are willing to pay for. I think its a no brainer that Davis is worth more on the market than Berrios.     

[Sperm Edwards]

I want Berrios back, and the real miscalculation in value was Douglas foolishly letting it get as far as it did. It's also the case that Berrios would be a backup slot receiver / 4th WR on this team, and is demanding quadruple the money of a more talented and more productive starter (whether they move Moore inside; or they draft a slot receiver in round 1 or the top of round 2). Even with this sorry franchise, I don't figure that facepalm of injuries and nonfactor from Mims to repeat.

Berrios was also the league-leader in return average this past season, both in punt and KOs (or would have been with just 2 more punt returns). So yeah I'd like to have him back, but since I'd also like them to not shy away from any FA WRs because the WR group's cap is already sizable heading into the draft, so how much more than a WR4/SL2 is he worth to the Jets because of his special teams returns?

This gets a little nuanced (and boring) with the numbers, so slurp down a few cups of hi-test coffee before proceeding. 

Kickoffs:

The league average is burying touchbacks on about 60% of kickoffs (actually it's a hair over that). Even if he repeats next year,  figure Berrios's 30-yard KO return average is only going to come on some 40% of opponent KOs - if he's the one returning it every single time. Also 30.4 is maybe 8 yards above the league average, so the average KO benefit is 40% of 8 yards, or roughly a 3-yard additional head start following an opponent's score (or to start a half). He also returned one for a TD. Nice, but a little meh.

The meh is also because one also has to look at how those KO yards are counted. In other words, unless he's only returning KOs he catches at the goal line, it's really not even 3 yards since those return stats count negative yards (how many yards deep in the EZ he caught it). If he takes a KO a few yards deep and returns it 30 yards, that 8-yard advantage over the mean is only worth 2 yards over taking a knee - Jets ball on the 27 instead of the 25 - even though one is viewed as an excellent return and the other a gutless nothing.

Just looking at averages his 30 vs the league-average 22, one is left with the impression that our typical field position is 8 yards better. In reality it's not even half that, and is probably in the 2-3 yard range. Worth a little, but not that much, even if it repeats exactly. 

Punts:

The punt returns were more impressive -- or so it seems at first glance, right? The yards he gained personally aren't in excess of the yards the team gained, since no one returns a punt from the endzone (and shouldn't even when close to it). But fair catches aren't worth 25 yards like on KOs; they're worth 0 yards, and Berrios usually calls a fair catch. That's ultimately why he didn't qualify as the league leader, so what's that average really worth? Well if his replacement fumbles in multiple close games, it could be worth a couple wins, so that shouldn't be diminished.  

Compare him to a non-all pro returner like (briefly one-time Jet) Kalif Raymond, who is/was on his 5th team in 5 NFL seasons, and makes like nothing. Raymond averaged 11.2 yards per punt return, also without fumbling any, so Berrios was a better punt returner, right? Every punt, the #statsdontlie crew would say it's simple: Berrios put the Jets with 3.2 yards better field position than Raymond did for Detroit. Except...no. Raymond returned 21 punts, only fair-catching 15 of them. He fielded 36 punts for 236 yards (a true average of 6.6 yards per punt received). Berrios fielded 40 punts for 201 yards (an average of 5.0 yards per punt received). 

In other words, it's not like rushing yards average, because RBs can't say, "Oh man I'm going to get stuffed on this play so I'll just take a knee, so this 0-yard carry won't drop my average." But that's exactly what happens on punt returns, so that 13-yard average is only of great benefit if he's returning most of the punts the team receives, not under 40% of them as he does. And this FC rate isn't an anomaly. In 2020 Berrios only had 10 returns to his 24 fair catches. His 8.6 yards per punt return should be a number with a * next to it. In practice, the Jets gained 86 yards on the 34 punts he fielded (2.5 yards per punt received), or about half his 2021 rate.

Summary?

I love Berrios as a reserve WR because 17 games is a long season and neither of the Jets' returning starters were every-game players. I like him even more because our QB is so comfortable throwing to him and, unlike most non-starter receivers, never drops the ball. Plus who knows if a rookie is going to be slow to perform in Sept like the last 2 we drafted. On the other hand I don't figure a WR4 to be as crucial as last year, seeing how they're probably going to add 1-2 TEs who can catch a football (or get open enough to do so). 

His value as a kick returner just isn't the big deal it originally seemed on its face, and his value as a punt returner is way overblown -- his biggest net value in that regard is that he doesn't fumble, not extra field position. 

So I still want him back, but his real value to the team is closer to the $5MM max I thought it was before his new demands were leaked. With all this extra cap room maybe push that to $6MM just to do it, if keeping or losing him really came down to just that, but I wouldn't keep playing that game with each additional million. 

[JustInFudge]

13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I want Berrios back, and the real miscalculation in value was Douglas foolishly letting it get as far as it did. It's also the case that Berrios would be a backup slot receiver / 4th WR on this team, and is demanding quadruple the money of a more talented and more productive starter (whether they move Moore inside; or they draft a slot receiver in round 1 or the top of round 2). Even with this sorry franchise, I don't figure that facepalm of injuries and nonfactor from Mims to repeat.

Berrios was also the league-leader in return average this past season, both in punt and KOs (or would have been with just 2 more punt returns). So yeah I'd like to have him back, but since I'd also like them to not shy away from any FA WRs because the WR group's cap is already sizable heading into the draft, so how much more than a WR4/SL2 is he worth to the Jets because of his special teams returns?

This gets a little nuanced (and boring) with the numbers, so slurp down a few cups of hi-test coffee before proceeding. 

Kickoffs:

The league average is burying touchbacks on about 60% of kickoffs (actually it's a hair over that). Even if he repeats next year,  figure Berrios's 30-yard KO return average is only going to come on some 40% of opponent KOs - if he's the one returning it every single time. Also 30.4 is maybe 8 yards above the league average, so the average KO benefit is 40% of 8 yards, or roughly a 3-yard additional head start following an opponent's score (or to start a half). He also returned one for a TD. Nice, but a little meh.

The meh is also because one also has to look at how those KO yards are counted. In other words, unless he's only returning KOs he catches at the goal line, it's really not even 3 yards since those return stats count negative yards (how many yards deep in the EZ he caught it). If he takes a KO a few yards deep and returns it 30 yards, that 8-yard advantage over the mean is only worth 2 yards over taking a knee - Jets ball on the 27 instead of the 25 - even though one is viewed as an excellent return and the other a gutless nothing.

Just looking at averages his 30 vs the league-average 22, one is left with the impression that our typical field position is 8 yards better. In reality it's not even half that, and is probably in the 2-3 yard range. Worth a little, but not that much, even if it repeats exactly. 

Punts:

The punt returns were more impressive -- or so it seems at first glance, right? The yards he gained personally aren't in excess of the yards the team gained, since no one returns a punt from the endzone (and shouldn't even when close to it). But fair catches aren't worth 25 yards like on KOs; they're worth 0 yards, and Berrios usually calls a fair catch. That's ultimately why he didn't qualify as the league leader, so what's that average really worth? Well if his replacement fumbles in multiple close games, it could be worth a couple wins, so that shouldn't be diminished.  

Compare him to a non-all pro returner like (briefly one-time Jet) Kalif Raymond, who is/was on his 5th team in 5 NFL seasons, and makes like nothing. Raymond averaged 11.2 yards per punt return, also without fumbling any, so Berrios was a better punt returner, right? Every punt, the #statsdontlie crew would say it's simple: Berrios put the Jets with 3.2 yards better field position than Raymond did for Detroit. Except...no. Raymond returned 21 punts, only fair-catching 15 of them. He fielded 36 punts for 236 yards (a true average of 6.6 yards per punt received). Berrios fielded 40 punts for 201 yards (an average of 5.0 yards per punt received). 

In other words, it's not like rushing yards average, because RBs can't say, "Oh man I'm going to get stuffed on this play so I'll just take a knee, so this 0-yard carry won't drop my average." But that's exactly what happens on punt returns, so that 13-yard average is only of great benefit if he's returning most of the punts the team receives, not under 40% of them as he does. And this FC rate isn't an anomaly. In 2020 Berrios only had 10 returns to his 24 fair catches. His 8.6 yards per punt return should be a number with a * next to it. In practice, the Jets gained 86 yards on the 34 punts he fielded (2.5 yards per punt received), or about half his 2021 rate.

Summary?

I love Berrios as a reserve WR because 17 games is a long season and neither of the Jets' returning starters were every-game players. I like him even more because our QB is so comfortable throwing to him and, unlike most non-starter receivers, never drops the ball. Plus who knows if a rookie is going to be slow to perform in Sept like the last 2 we drafted. On the other hand I don't figure a WR4 to be as crucial as last year, seeing how they're probably going to add 1-2 TEs who can catch a football (or get open enough to do so). 

His value as a kick returner just isn't the big deal it originally seemed on its face, and his value as a punt returner is way overblown -- his biggest net value in that regard is that he doesn't fumble, not extra field position. 

So I still want him back, but his real value to the team is closer to the $5MM max I thought it was before his new demands were leaked. With all this extra cap room maybe push that to $6MM just to do it, if keeping or losing him really came down to just that, but I wouldn't keep playing that game with each additional million. 

Very interesting breakdown.  My biggest takeaway is I'm shocked the Jets forced 40 punts on the season.

[section314]

1 minute ago, JiFapono said:

Very interesting breakdown.  My biggest takeaway is I'm shocked the Jets forced 40 punts on the season.

25 were probably the Houston and Jax games.

[FidelioJet]

Berrios is fine, but not start caliber.

He needs to be schemed open - not really capable of getting beating people.  While a good player, he's not the kind of guy that should be a starter, nor should he be paid as such.  Good gadget guy, good return guy - and effective #5...but that's what he is.

Bottom line, someday the Braxton Berrios type will not be on the team.

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Berrios is fine, but not start caliber.

He needs to be schemed open - not really capable of getting beating people.  While a good player, he's not the kind of guy that should be a starter, nor should he be paid as such.  Good gadget guy, good return guy - and effective #5...but that's what he is.

Bottom line, someday the Braxton Berrios type will not be on the team.

He’s a starter. Value at the slot and gadget plays. He does get separation (6.7 3 cone) and he’s a really good returner. Moore looks like he can be good but was completely unreliable. Jets need guys who will play every game first and foremost.

[TuscanyTile2]

Check out these 10 games.  This is a $9M per year guy?  Ultimately if we're paying him that money, it's far more for being a WR than a ST guy.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BerrBr00.htm