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The last 2 SB losers…


Integrity28
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46 minutes ago, Dunnie said:
1 hour ago, doitny said:
so they get to the SB if they draft Sewell over Chase? i think not

Sorry that is not what i was saying ... i was trying to say Chase being god doens make that an axiom.

true, but keep drafting OL in rd 1 is. 

1 is ok, 

2 is not. teams paying big Money to a QB cant afford 2 big OL contracts. 

3 is the "kiss of death" ... your not paying 3 guys big money on the OL. and you used high draft capital on one position instead of spreading it around. no team has ever won with 3.

 

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26 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Bengals who faced Mike White were a very different team than the one that went on their playoff run.

The Chiefs were at home.  They had no excuse to lose to Cincy.  If they were truly the better team, they would have won that game. 

The Bengals were clearly outmatched by the Rams, but deserve an enormous amount of credit for making the run they did.  It certainly wasn't ALL luck, and they have every right to say they really were the best team in the AFC.

They were getting blown out by KC and if the Chiefs don't give away that score at the end of the first half they probably win the Super Bowl -- I think the Chiefs or Bills would have handled the Rams.

You certainly have to give the Bengals credit for finding a way to win that game at Arrowhead. The dropped 8 into coverage and confused Mahomes. But I feel very strongly the Chiefs choked and lost that game more than the Bengals won it.

Bengals were a 10-7 team. Great run but they weren't the best team in the AFC and unless they have a great offseason I'm not really expecting a dramatic leap for them next year. Far more likely that the a different team wins the AFC North than that the Bengals make another run.

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38 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

I'll add another "break" the Bengals got...that was Burrow getting hurt last year.  If Burrow doesn't get hurt they're never in a position to make the choice between Chase and Sewell.

Bengals got ALL. THE. BREAKS.

The Jets NEVER. GET. THE. BREAKS.

Bengals were 2-7-1 with Burrow last year. They went 2-4 after he got hurt. 

Looking  into the Bengals a little more and I think they may be a candidate to regress.  Steelers/Ravens and Browns all had down years and the Bengals still only went 10-7. Granted, if the Steelers don't find a QB they may just be a bad team for a while. 

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1 hour ago, doitny said:

true, but keep drafting OL in rd 1 is. 

1 is ok, 

2 is not. teams paying big Money to a QB cant afford 2 big OL contracts. 

3 is the "kiss of death" ... your not paying 3 guys big money on the OL. and you used high draft capital on one position instead of spreading it around. no team has ever won with 3.

 

I typcally agree with you on the OL over-investment stuff, but don't know if point #2 is accurate.

Look at KC:

  1. Mahomes is on a half-billion dollar contract. While his $36MM 2022 cap# isn't chump change, it'll feel like it come next year when the string of $45MM cap hit begins.
  2. Then 1 year ago they added Thuney at $16MM/yr. His next 2 seasons are effectively guaranteed (it'll be official on March 19th).
  3. And now this year, as a 25 year-old, above-average LT (with all the leverage in the world after KC's sunk a 1st round pick into him) Orlando Brown will command $20MM/yr from them if they're lucky

On top of that trio:

  1. Chris Jones is also on a $20MM/yr contract, and his cap number is skyrocketing to about $30MM this year after they kept it artificially low at $8.5MM for 2021. 
  2. Frank Clark's cap # is almost the same for his remaining 2 seasons ($27MM each), too. He'll surely get cut, unless they can miraculously find a trade partner, and can drop that to "just" ~$7MM dead cap this year & next (unless they want/can absorb it all this year). 
  3. Then Tyreek Hill is also due a major extension. This is his last contract year and his current cap # is $21MM for 2022. They could lower this year's # with an extension, but every million they pay him has to come off the cap eventually, no matter how much they delay parts of it.
  4. Mathieu is a FA this year. I don't think they'll be able to get him back unless they really want to put off more cap hits. Seems likely they'll just draft a safety. 

So it can be done, but KC's roster is as top-heavy as a roster can be. The QB had better be an actual Mahomes peer to make it work, though. 

I think if they can sign a veteran RG like Tomlinson, who'd step right in with no learning curve (or splurge a couple bucks more on someone more talented, who'll adjust fine before long), I'd rather keep our high 1st round picks. The resulting OL wouldn't be free but it's not insane money, and assuming Becton or Fant doesn't miss the season it'd be one of the better units in the league. 3 veterans averaging $10MM and two 11-15 pick rookies at about half that each = a $40MM starting OL. Plus just because they stay away from OL in the 1st round doesn't mean they therefore stay away for the rest of the draft. Most OL starters come from after round 1 anyway. 

The only way I can get behind Douglas using a top 10 pick on the OL is if they've already traded Becton before our pick, or have offers on the table at least. I'm wild-guessing right now his value at upper round 2, give or take 20 picks, so if that's what they do they can hopefully turn that into another starter in the secondary or elsewhere. But even that presumes the value at edge isn't there and no one else is interested enough in a trade-up to ante up enough.

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7 hours ago, Biggs said:

 If you have a great OL and no weapons teams can blitz without fear.  

Can they? That great OL will pick up the blitz (that's one of the many things a great OL does) allowing the QB to find the open (uncovered) man who doesn't have to be all world to catch the ball and run.

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5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Please don't misunderstand.  I have no issue with the Rams doing what they did.  All I'm saying is I get why in many peoples' eyes, the "pressure" was far more on the Rams than the Bengals to win this SB.  The Bengals will be really good for a long time with Burrow.  The Rams were in the middle of a quickly closing window.  

Got it, thanks. I agree, but you never know in the NFL. A good GM and Head Coach could keep the Rams competitive for years. That said, starting without a #1 pick the next 2 years will make it tougher. 

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6 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

I'll add another "break" the Bengals got...that was Burrow getting hurt last year.  If Burrow doesn't get hurt they're never in a position to make the choice between Chase and Sewell.

Bengals got ALL. THE. BREAKS.

The Jets NEVER. GET. THE. BREAKS.

And Burrow got hurt because the OL stunk.  He had a serious knee injury that could have altered his career.  Mahomes was running for his life in the SB last season.  Can we stop with a post mortem of every playoff game with the definitive statements of how to build the team?  After Chiefs-Bills it was all offense.  After last week it was a Cincy love fest.  If anything was learned from yesterday's game it was that defense still matters.  The defenses owned the second half of that game.  There is no one way to build a team.  

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2 hours ago, OilfieldJet said:

Got it, thanks. I agree, but you never know in the NFL. A good GM and Head Coach could keep the Rams competitive for years. That said, starting without a #1 pick the next 2 years will make it tougher. 

Aaron Donald is already contemplating retirement.  Long-term contention for a team built like this doesn't work without his presence.  

Also, LT Andrew Whitworth is 40 years old.  Good luck replacing him effectively when he hangs 'em up.

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I dont believe the Bengals or the Rams are a good model of how to build a team to get to the Super Bowl.  The bengels just got hot at the right time and the Rams got lucky that tampa was decimated by injury.

I think the Bengals will finish 3rd in their division next year and the Rams may get back to the playoffs but they wont go far.

Joe Douglas is building this team to be a top team for 10 plus straight years and win multiple Super Bowls.  Thats how you build a team for sustained success.

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5 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

I dont believe the Bengals or the Rams are a good model of how to build a team to get to the Super Bowl.  The bengels just got hot at the right time and the Rams got lucky that tampa was decimated by injury.

I think the Bengals will finish 3rd in their division next year and the Rams may get back to the playoffs but they wont go far.

Joe Douglas is building this team to be a top team for 10 plus straight years and win multiple Super Bowls.  Thats how you build a team for sustained success.

I hear you man. Those teams that just played in the Super Bowl don't know what they're doing. The Jets are using the right model.

That doesn't sound insane at all.

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22 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

Were loaded on offense, but couldn’t protect their QB. 

While Cincinatti's OL was doing Burrow no favors Burrow's inability to recognize an overload and get rid of the ball in a timely manner was totally unacceptable. Even with a good O Line Cincy's weakness has been exposed. The Rams went to school on Burrow and have shown how to defeat the latest Boy Wonder. And don't expect the League won't do the same for Josh Allen. Zach Wilson are you watching ?

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12 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I typcally agree with you on the OL over-investment stuff, but don't know if point #2 is accurate.

Look at KC:

  1. Mahomes is on a half-billion dollar contract. While his $36MM 2022 cap# isn't chump change, it'll feel like it come next year when the string of $45MM cap hit begins.
  2. Then 1 year ago they added Thuney at $16MM/yr. His next 2 seasons are effectively guaranteed (it'll be official on March 19th).
  3. And now this year, as a 25 year-old, above-average LT (with all the leverage in the world after KC's sunk a 1st round pick into him) Orlando Brown will command $20MM/yr from them if they're lucky

On top of that trio:

  1. Chris Jones is also on a $20MM/yr contract, and his cap number is skyrocketing to about $30MM this year after they kept it artificially low at $8.5MM for 2021. 
  2. Frank Clark's cap # is almost the same for his remaining 2 seasons ($27MM each), too. He'll surely get cut, unless they can miraculously find a trade partner, and can drop that to "just" ~$7MM dead cap this year & next (unless they want/can absorb it all this year). 
  3. Then Tyreek Hill is also due a major extension. This is his last contract year and his current cap # is $21MM for 2022. They could lower this year's # with an extension, but every million they pay him has to come off the cap eventually, no matter how much they delay parts of it.
  4. Mathieu is a FA this year. I don't think they'll be able to get him back unless they really want to put off more cap hits. Seems likely they'll just draft a safety. 

So it can be done, but KC's roster is as top-heavy as a roster can be. The QB had better be an actual Mahomes peer to make it work, though. 

I think if they can sign a veteran RG like Tomlinson, who'd step right in with no learning curve (or splurge a couple bucks more on someone more talented, who'll adjust fine before long), I'd rather keep our high 1st round picks. The resulting OL wouldn't be free but it's not insane money, and assuming Becton or Fant doesn't miss the season it'd be one of the better units in the league. 3 veterans averaging $10MM and two 11-15 pick rookies at about half that each = a $40MM starting OL. Plus just because they stay away from OL in the 1st round doesn't mean they therefore stay away for the rest of the draft. Most OL starters come from after round 1 anyway. 

The only way I can get behind Douglas using a top 10 pick on the OL is if they've already traded Becton before our pick, or have offers on the table at least. I'm wild-guessing right now his value at upper round 2, give or take 20 picks, so if that's what they do they can hopefully turn that into another starter in the secondary or elsewhere. But even that presumes the value at edge isn't there and no one else is interested enough in a trade-up to ante up enough.

we have to wait as see what happens. we all assume they keep both Thunney and Brown but it might be too much money. 

last year it was Thuney at 16 mil and the next guy made 5.5 mil

if they sign Brown to a even 18 mil contract that would be the most any team has spent on 2 OL last year. 

SF which has the highest paid OL in Trent Williams (23mil) follows him up with the next highest Laken Tomlison making 5.5 mil

GB Bakhtiari 23 m. next 7 mil then 1.1 mil guys...

Hou Laremy Tunsil 22 m. next 6.4 and 3.2m

Balt Ronnie Stanely 18.7 m. next 7.5 and 7 m.

NO Ryan Ramczyk 19.2 m. next 13 and 11.5 mil. there in cap hell if im not mistaking. and they have three 1st rd OL picks. my guess is 2 of them will be gone to make cap room. Ruiz drafted in 2020 is still on a friendly rookie deal. 

which brings me to my point. why draft 3 if you cant keep 3.

Minn Bryan O Niel 18.5m. next is 3.3 m

Wash Brandon Scherff 18 mil. next is 12, 10 and 10. they have 50 mil tied up in 4 players. 40 mil in 3 players. 

point im making is that teams dont pay 2 guys BIG OL money. from what people tell me here is that this OL and there are 2 i believe that could be taken at 4 are so incredible it would be a crime not to take them.

well then he better be the best of the best. and if he is in 4 years hes going to want over 20 mil a year. 

AVT had been good and if he keeps it up he could get anywhere from 16-20 mil. thats 40 mil for 2 OL. thats insane.

and what about the rest of the OL? do you think we can afford some 10 mil guys like Fant and Mcg. so we would pay around 70 mil just for the starters? and what about the backups? 

sorry but i dont see anybody good paying alot for there OLs. so if we cant pay them all its foolish to draft them all.

maybe KC proves me wrong, but thats alot of money Mahomes makes, i still think they either cut Thuney or let Brown walk. unless Mahomes restructures his contract.

 

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11 hours ago, WestCoastMole said:

While Cincinatti's OL was doing Burrow no favors Burrow's inability to recognize an overload and get rid of the ball in a timely manner was totally unacceptable. Even with a good O Line Cincy's weakness has been exposed. The Rams went to school on Burrow and have shown how to defeat the latest Boy Wonder. And don't expect the League won't do the same for Josh Allen. Zach Wilson are you watching ?

So, everyone in the league gets yourself an Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller, etc defense?

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7 hours ago, doitny said:

we have to wait as see what happens. we all assume they keep both Thunney and Brown but it might be too much money. 

last year it was Thuney at 16 mil and the next guy made 5.5 mil

if they sign Brown to a even 18 mil contract that would be the most any team has spent on 2 OL last year. 

SF which has the highest paid OL in Trent Williams (23mil) follows him up with the next highest Laken Tomlison making 5.5 mil

GB Bakhtiari 23 m. next 7 mil then 1.1 mil guys...

Hou Laremy Tunsil 22 m. next 6.4 and 3.2m

Balt Ronnie Stanely 18.7 m. next 7.5 and 7 m.

NO Ryan Ramczyk 19.2 m. next 13 and 11.5 mil. there in cap hell if im not mistaking. and they have three 1st rd OL picks. my guess is 2 of them will be gone to make cap room. Ruiz drafted in 2020 is still on a friendly rookie deal. 

which brings me to my point. why draft 3 if you cant keep 3.

Minn Bryan O Niel 18.5m. next is 3.3 m

Wash Brandon Scherff 18 mil. next is 12, 10 and 10. they have 50 mil tied up in 4 players. 40 mil in 3 players. 

point im making is that teams dont pay 2 guys BIG OL money. from what people tell me here is that this OL and there are 2 i believe that could be taken at 4 are so incredible it would be a crime not to take them.

well then he better be the best of the best. and if he is in 4 years hes going to want over 20 mil a year. 

AVT had been good and if he keeps it up he could get anywhere from 16-20 mil. thats 40 mil for 2 OL. thats insane.

and what about the rest of the OL? do you think we can afford some 10 mil guys like Fant and Mcg. so we would pay around 70 mil just for the starters? and what about the backups? 

sorry but i dont see anybody good paying alot for there OLs. so if we cant pay them all its foolish to draft them all.

maybe KC proves me wrong, but thats alot of money Mahomes makes, i still think they either cut Thuney or let Brown walk. unless Mahomes restructures his contract.

 

I'm aware of the lack of history of teams going overboard on the OL - to the degree many here want - and riding that strategy to a super bowl.

FYI Thuney is uncuttable. His $14MM base salary for the 2022 season is 100% guaranteed, and his $15MM salary for the 2023 season becomes 100% guaranteed if they don't cut him by March 19th. The point is either way they're paying him $14-15MM in new cash payments for the 2022 season whether they keep or cut him. The only way out of his contract is by trading him, which then creates the hole they were filling when they signed him. FFS he did an ample job when they moved him to LT in an emergency for the regular season game vs Cincy - an injury-caused change made with the game underway, mind you - and apparently gave up 0 sacks and 2 pressures. There's no way they're cutting him; he's their best lineman.

I'd be surprised if KC simply lets Brown hit FA. They'll have traded a 1st round pick to rent him for one non-super bowl season. The only other way of getting out of it looking kinda-ok is if they do a quick turnaround to tag & trade him. Of course, then the team has to start shopping for a LT again. Plus they kinda have nobody else either (unless they want to make the Thuney-to-LT change a permanent one). Niang is less reliable than Becton (has made 9 starts in 2 seasons and isn't all that anyway). Niang's backupd Wylie not only sucks but is a UFA, too.

I guess they could look into re-signing Schwartz and/or Fisher after taking a year-off from both. If he isn't tagged, Fisher would be millions less than Brown, but would still be a significant cost for a Brown-downgrade. 

KC also has Mahomes, who covers up a whole lot of other holes, too. The Jets certainly don't have Mahomes. Even still, such a strategy could work, of course, but then Douglas needs to be truly extra-ordinary in hitting on picks in later draft rounds plus in finding veteran FA starters & high quality depth who don't get injured or perform substandard like C.Lawson, Becton, S.Lawson, Rankins, GVR, Feeney, and more.

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When it comes to OL, quantity over quality in the draft isn't the worst approach.

The only position where its basically a requirement to use a 1st round pick to find one is LT.  The rest of the OL positions can be filled in that Rd 2-4 area.  But you need to draft a whole bunch of OL in order to build/maintain a pipeline.  

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On 2/14/2022 at 5:11 PM, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Bengals were 2-7-1 with Burrow last year. They went 2-4 after he got hurt. 

Looking  into the Bengals a little more and I think they may be a candidate to regress.  Steelers/Ravens and Browns all had down years and the Bengals still only went 10-7. Granted, if the Steelers don't find a QB they may just be a bad team for a while. 

One thing working for the Bengals - they likely don't have to face Mike White in 2022! :D  

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31 minutes ago, UnknownJetFan said:

When we built the great oline with Brick and Mangold, we made the playoffs fairly often with mediocre QBs.

really. we made the playoffs 3 years in Bricks 9 yrs and Mangolds 10 years. thats not fairly often. thats 30% of the time.

we were 79-81 in there 10 years. 4-3 in the playoffs.

OL is not a position where you need the " best of the best of the best ... with honors " type of guys. the NFL is fill with Fant and Mcg type guys who play good enough and for avg salaries so you can use high draft picks and spend more money on positions that matter more.

we draft TE Vernon Davis who went 6th and kepted DE John Abraham who was probably our best rushers next to Gastineau and we win more games and might have a SB.

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Jets fans haven’t seen a winning season in like 150 years.

Makes perfect sense that they’d be more concerned with the salary cap than filling the room with studs. Good teams maneuver the cap. Y’all overthink this sh*t far too much.

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On 2/15/2022 at 10:02 AM, slats said:

Alternate thread: The last two SB winners… 

 

Were able to get to the QB when it mattered. 


Exactly.  Many of the same people advocating throwing more and more high picks/resources at OL are also those who scoff at the idea of taking an EDGE guy high.  As if they don’t even stop to consider what kinds of players the OL are suppose to be protecting Wilson from….

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I find this interesting. If you are a QB, you really need to win the first superbowl you appear, because if you do not your chances of winning a future superbowl become very problematic.

By my count 30 QBs lost the first SB they appeared in.  23 of these QBs were one and done. Only 7 of them made it back to the big game. How did the 7 do? Three of them never won the big game: Craig Morton 0-2; Fran Tarkenton 0-3; and Jim Kelly 0- 4. Three of them won one superbowl to even their SB record at 1-1: Len Dawson; Earl Morrall; and Bob Greise. One went on to win multiple SBs but still finished under .500 at 2-3: John Elway.  

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