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Things that I think: Jets 2022 Offseason Edition


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Great post, as always.

Based on this info and a look at the draft board, it seems to me that OL is a given at #4.  Any other position would be a reach that low.  There are no WR, TE or other Edges that warrant pick #4.  If Douglas lands a vet WR, TE and S in free agency, I would love for them to take Perrion Winfrey or Travis Jones in round 2 especially if Douglas is willing to wait until round 3 to take a TE.  The way those guys were throwing around OL in Mobile, Saleh would love to have them.  I think Derrick Barnett would be a great get.  He's a younger and better (albeit more expensive) Vinny Curry and it would not be wise to relay on Huff to fill the pressure gap.

Football Guy, you didn't mention Safety, but I assume they will sign a free agent and draft one.  Could be as early as the second or third round, even if they sign Marcus Williams.

Based on this post I would guess that Douglas will get his hands on a top WR via free agency or trade.  If it's Ridley, I would guess that Douglas wouldn't be willing to give up more than a 4th rounder this year and a conditional pick in 2023 to hedge his risk.  I think Greenbean is on to something when he suggested Amari Cooper for a third.  I'd be happy with either.

I think a plausible off-season may consist of free agents/trades/re-signings: Ridley, OJ Howard, Marcus Williams, The Doctor, LaMarcus Joyner, Derrick Barnett, Cedric Wilson and Berrios, with a new contract for Fant.  Draft could then include: Ikwenu, Jermaine Johnson, Cine, Chad Muma (LB), Jalon Tolbert or Christian Watson, Charlie Kolar and Jerome Ford.

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You get the sense that both Douglas and Saleh are going to go hard after gritty self-starters even if it means passing on a more talented prospect, which will ultimately burn them in the end. 

Thanks.  Great insight.

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You get the sense that both Douglas and Saleh are going to go hard after gritty self-starters even if it means passing on a more talented prospect, which will ultimately burn them in the end. 

This is such a fine line to walk in the NFL.  Guys who are trouble in college get passed and then have great careers with no other trouble, then others who seem like good guys just are not good enough.

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The overarching theme here is this draft feels like it sucks overall. Feels like the Quinnen draft where we had to take him based on the high slot and available talent and walk away with that meh feeling. No QB's either, which makes the 4th spot even less appealing.

@T0mShane And if the Njoku, Claypool, and Ridley rumors are credible they're like the opposite of gritty self starters. In fact, I'd argue any of those guys are potential 3rd rail locker room ruiners. 

The Jets need to have the guys they are banking on stay healthy. Moore needs to get on the field. Point blank period. Get out of the trainers room and play, no excuses. Carter was an ankle sprain which is more black and white, so I'd expect him to be OK. Davis needs to get his head out of his ass. Just a lot of question marks still. If I'm Douglas im walking away with at least 2-3 WR's in this draft and at least two running backs. 

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Can someone explain to me why we would want David Njoku or any other TE who cant block?  I really think this is something that is being missed entirely by the media and fan base.

The "SF offense" is based on running the ball and you need a TE who can help you do that by blocking.  Kittle isnt a guy who is out there running routes out of the slot.  He is an elite blocker who takes advantage of teams having to stay in base and beating LBs or is to big for some DBs in coverage.  His blocking is what makes the SF offense be able to run the ball and use play action more then anything else. 

I dont see Njoku or howard having more then average value as a blocker so why would either be a fit here? My guess is that they would rather take a player like Kolar or Ruckert in the draft who they know can step on the field day 1 and be a good blocker with the physical upside to possibly be a good receiver.

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11 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Can someone explain to me why we would want David Njoku or any other TE who cant block?  I really think this is something that is being missed entirely by the media and fan base.

The "SF offense" is based on running the ball and you need a TE who can help you do that by blocking.  Kittle isnt a guy who is out there running routes out of the slot.  He is an elite blocker who takes advantage of teams having to stay in base and beating LBs or is to big for some DBs in coverage.  His blocking is what makes the SF offense be able to run the ball and use play action more then anything else. 

I dont see Njoku or howard having more then average value as a blocker so why would either be a fit here? My guess is that they would rather take a player like Kolar or Ruckert in the draft who they know can step on the field day 1 and be a good blocker with the physical upside to possibly be a good receiver.

Yeah Njoku would be a guy to overspend on because the Jets have absolutely nothing on the roster. If the culture thing is an integral part of the Douglas/Saleh plan, Njoku kind of goes against that. The guy has been a massive underachiever his entire career.

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14 minutes ago, BCJet said:

I dont see Njoku or howard having more then average value as a blocker so why would either be a fit here? My guess is that they would rather take a player like Kolar or Ruckert in the draft who they know can step on the field day 1 and be a good blocker with the physical upside to possibly be a good receiver.

Njoku would be the athletic seam stretcher.  Him and McBride would be redundant, which is why I think you’re onto something here.  I think there’s a reason they didn’t play Ruckert very much (if at all) in the Senior Bowl. 

According to the TDN guy on his interview McBride and Ruckert had their reps back-to-back, and it was clear Ruckert was the better player.  I think there’s some gamesmanship here, and JR is the real target to pair with Njoku.

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17 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Can someone explain to me why we would want David Njoku or any other TE who cant block?  I really think this is something that is being missed entirely by the media and fan base.

The "SF offense" is based on running the ball and you need a TE who can help you do that by blocking.  Kittle isnt a guy who is out there running routes out of the slot.  He is an elite blocker who takes advantage of teams having to stay in base and beating LBs or is to big for some DBs in coverage.  His blocking is what makes the SF offense be able to run the ball and use play action more then anything else. 

I dont see Njoku or howard having more then average value as a blocker so why would either be a fit here? My guess is that they would rather take a player like Kolar or Ruckert in the draft who they know can step on the field day 1 and be a good blocker with the physical upside to possibly be a good receiver.

Njoku can block. You are I’ll informed if you believe that he can’t. He’s actually pretty good at it. 

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If Tyler Linderbaum is in fact the “best” IOL to enter the draft in the last two decades, you gotta imagine JD is aware, and salivating at the possibility of drafting him.  Perhaps a trade back from #10 gunning for him with Penning and Zion Johnson as 2a and 2b fallback options. 

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13 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Yeah Njoku would be a guy to overspend on because the Jets have absolutely nothing on the roster. If the culture thing is an integral part of the Douglas/Saleh plan, Njoku kind of goes against that. The guy has been a massive underachiever his entire career.

He was on pace for about 650 yards and 5-6 tds last year, but missed a handful of games so had 475 and 4. That isn’t bad by any means especially when he won’t be crazy expensive. He would be the best jets te in years. The guy the fans are clamoring for in Shultz only had a few hundred more yards with twice as many targets and isn’t that much of a better blocker. 

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All I can hope for is Sleepy Joe got a little woken up by the media turning up the heat a tad after a 4-13 season following a 2-14 season. Results like that only last so long no matter how many times you throw out deflectors like “your plan” 

I have a feeling sleepy Joe will get aggressive this spring. For the sake of winning more then 5 games I sure hope so 

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9 minutes ago, artemusclyde said:

The only thing these beat reporters have been since jd joined is wrong. Take what they say with a grain of salt 

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@football guy prime info as always a couple of questions:

- What does the staff think of Yeboah at TE?  If they think he has promise, I
could see them combining him with Njoku to be the pass catchers.  Then add
some like Jake Ferguson (Wisc) in the draft with Wesco to be blockers

- What does the staff think of Berrios?  Is he a returner and a "gadget WR"
or do they think he can develop into a legitimate weapon

- Does someone like Christian Kirk (ARZ) fit their profile at WR as a free agent?

- You didn't mention any LB upgrades.  Williams flashed a ton of raw ability but
has to be refined.  What about the other OLB spot, do they like Devin Lloyd (Utah)
or Nakobe Dean (Georgia)?

- And as far as safety is concerned I think its imperative they add a veteran in
free agency to settle down (run) the secondary.  Any names we should look for?
 

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Great post. Appreciate the thoughtful and realistic off season plan. I think the Jets know they have to bring in a veteran wide receiver and TE, in order to accurately assess Zach. Rookie TEs struggle to make an immediate impact. A couple of years ago the Patriots traded up and took 2 tight ends only for both to make 0 impact. The next year they paid big money for two free agent TEs. Wide receivers can make an immediate impact, but are dependent on high quality QB play. If a highly selected receiver doesn’t produce, is it Zach, the offense, or is it the player? Early last season that was the question about Elijah Moore. 

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Pass rusher talent has eluded the Jets for a long time. Doubling down on a deep edge class with a couple of selections seems prudent given it’s the key to Saleh’s defense. Definitely first round and possibly in the second round. Edge is the premium position we are weakest at historically and it’s a good time to break that cycle (or at least get two tries in the educated crapshoot that is the draft). The hope is 1 gives you meaningful production and the other is a developmental contributor that can step up when Lawson’s contract is up.
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1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

@T0mShane And if the Njoku, Claypool, and Ridley rumors are credible they're like the opposite of gritty self starters. In fact, I'd argue any of those guys are potential 3rd rail locker room ruiners. 

Surprised to see Njoku or Ridley in football guys’ post at all, but Claypool Is a Jeremy Fowler rumor, and Fowler is as full of sh*t as it gets. I’m not even sure how Njoku fits in that Niners-style offense because he doesn’t block even a little bit. And if Ridley hates life playing with a stat-hanger like Matt Ryan, he’d absolutely lose his will to live taking over the vaunted Keelan Cole role here. Not to take anything away from football guy’s reporting, but I’m guessing that’s more in line with the Jets supposed passing interest in Godwin and Gallup last offseason. The ‘22 free agent haul will probably look something like Berrios, Jessie Bates, Tyler Conklin, an IOL and some rando wideout who blocks well. 

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13 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Surprised to see Njoku or Ridley in football guys’ post at all, but Claypool Is a Jeremy Fowler rumor, and Fowler is as full of sh*t as it gets. I’m not even sure how Njoku fits in that Niners-style offense because he doesn’t block even a little bit. And if Ridley hates life playing with a stat-hanger like Matt Ryan, he’d absolutely lose his will to live taking over the vaunted Keelan Cole role here. Not to take anything away from football guy’s reporting, but I’m guessing that’s more in line with the Jets supposed passing interest in Godwin and Gallup last offseason. The ‘22 free agent haul will probably look something like Berrios, Jessie Bates, Tyler Conklin, an IOL and some rando wideout who blocks well. 

Ok Larry. With White as your QB1 are you trading Wilson?

 

 

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3 hours ago, GreenFish said:

This all mostly makes sense to me. Njoku is perfect for our system. He’s been underutilized in Cleveland. Hopefully we can sway him with a solid contract and the reality that he will be our #1 TE.

WR. I like the idea of targeting a veteran. I like the draft prospects but if we can get a #1 via trade or FA, it’s a much safer approach. Give me Ridley or Cooper or Godwin.

Edge in the first…sign me up.

The only part that doesn't make sense to me is the OL. Agree with resigning Fant and McGovern. We got AVT. You’re saying they do not want to bench Becton and will likely play him at RT. Makes sense. That leaves one spot open…RG. If they sign a RG in FA, why would they go OL in the 1st? Giving up on Becton seems very premature. And using a 1st as insurance seems like an expensive hedge.

I think part of the reason why Douglas will avoid bidding big on a RG is for the very reason that the strength of the draft at the top is OL. If you sign a guy like Scherff and draft a guy like Ickey, someone’s going to have to ride the bench and it’s very unlikely to be Fant. If they were to sign Scherff, then he’s going to have to go against his gut and likely bypass an OL in round 1 unless he wants to (a) trade Fant and severely piss off the coaching staff; or (b) move on from Becton. 

2 hours ago, doitny said:

so let me get this straight.  JD admires Buffalo and Balt 2 teams that drafted one (Buff) and 2 (Balt) OL in the 1st rd since 2009. but can draft OL every year and is going to draft a 3rd OL for the 3rd year in a row in rd 1? 

then he doesnt admire them. he admires the Detroit Lions who drafted 6 OL in rd 1 since 2008. and we all know how bad that organization is.

if he does it again he needs to go. the best teams, the SB teams and not just this year but for the last 22 years dont draft OL in rd 1. 

 

just because he admires a team’s culture and overall philosophy does not mean he’s going to build his team the exact same way from an investment standpoint. Also, I think you have your info wrong: almost positive every team in the superbowl or to win one the last 20+ years has had at least 1 former 1st round picks on their OL, with the Rams being the first team who won it without one. 

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14 minutes ago, football guy said:

The real reason why he left the team stems from legitimate personal issues. He actually has nothing against the Falcons either, rather, he has had bad experiences living in Atlanta. He’s been robbed 3 times—all times he was not inviting a robbery in any way—and once at gun point. His fiancé has also had a scary experience, and from what I understand there was some fallout between them and some of their friends. 

Basically, they want a fresh start in a new city. The problem is that the Jets will likely have to sell Ridley on their organization.

Oh wow.  I completely misjudged it then.  I thought it was something along the lines of him questioning whether or not he wanted to continue playing football (a handful of players in recent years have retired early).  

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You get the sense that both Douglas and Saleh are going to go hard after gritty self-starters even if it means passing on a more talented prospect, which will ultimately burn them in the end. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if they pick Jermaine Johnson over Thibideoux at 4. 
 

Not that it would be the wrong pick. But it’s certainly a statement pick in terms of what you value in the prospect and ultimately make your selection on. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Oh wow.  I completely misjudged it then.  I thought it was something along the lines of him questioning whether or not he wanted to continue playing football (a handful of players in recent years have retired early).  

This changes a lot. Getting robbed 3 times is a legit reason to want to leave Atlanta. He just moved up to number 1 of my wish list.

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44 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Most of this is outright depressing if that's where Douglas is actually headed.

  • A top 4 OL pick
  • AND he wants to keep Becton
  • AND extend Fant
  • AND extend McGovern
  • AND re-sign LDT? 
  • If he keeps those 3 (plus AVT) and inks LDT again for starter money, and still goes anywhere near an OL pick in round 1 (or signs Scherff for some $1.5-2MM/game) he should be fired just as quickly as if he takes a DT up there.

Hopefully this is just stuff he's purposely letting leak out. 

As far as targets for Wilson?

  • Fine with Njoku, provided they also take a day 2 TE. Rumor is he badly doesn't want to leave Cleveland. 
  • Also like that they'll look at a veteran WR but they "looked" and/or "were interested" last year, too, and this sounds like kick the tires on options unlikely to happen.
  • The only thing that made me a little happier is that the Berrios...that his alleged $9MM demand rumor...allegedly isn't true.

So...

Over-value secondary/tertiary OL positions at #4 overall; draft a DT in round 1 when they just need a rotational player; wants to bring back Rankins, who sucked, at $5.5MM in new money; AND he wants to extend/re-sign FF at presumably at least that amount if that'll do it; and the only serious edge rusher plan is Carl Lawson, coming off a missed season, so he can potentially use a 1st/2nd round pick on a DT to replace a lost FA rotational run-stuffer?

Also not happy that my initial concern about the JFM extension may be spot-on (if this leak is true), which is that he's not drafting an edge rusher because he just poured serious $ into JFM's extension ~6 months after sinking even more into Lawson. 

Douglas is smoking ultra low-quality crack if most or all of this is accurate (and I'm holding out hope it isn't). If it is, though, this offseason will be as depressing as the one when they extended Mark Sanchez, because it means the Jets will never win a Super Bowl - and probably won't ever make the playoffs - with Douglas.

Fingers crossed that 90% of this doesn't happen.

Another thing he mentioned was "the NFL is lower on Kayvon Thibodeaux than the media and fans; it's to the point where others who I trust that say he may not crack the Jets top 4 DE prospects".  I know you value Edge but what if the value is just not there?  Basically, what if our needs don't line up with what the draft is offering?  And trading down at #4 might not be possible if there's not QB teams are fighting for. 

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

I think part of the reason why Douglas will avoid bidding big on a RG is for the very reason that the strength of the draft at the top is OL. If you sign a guy like Scherff and draft a guy like Ickey, someone’s going to have to ride the bench and it’s very unlikely to be Fant. If they were to sign Scherff, then he’s going to have to go against his gut and likely bypass an OL in round 1 unless he wants to (a) trade Fant and severely piss off the coaching staff; or (b) move on from Becton. 

just because he admires a team’s culture and overall philosophy does not mean he’s going to build his team the exact same way from an investment standpoint. Also, I think you have your info wrong: almost positive every team in the superbowl or to win one the last 20+ years has had at least 1 former 1st round picks on their OL, with the Rams being the first team who won it without one. 

yes your right. 1.... not 3. and 3 years in a row none the less. thats over investment in 1st rd picks on any position.

and your wrong about the Rams being the 1st in 20 years. just to be clear im talking their own 1st rd pick, not FAs. 

2021......Rams-0, Cin-1

2020 ...... TB-1, KC-1

2019........KC-1, SF-1

2018........NE-0, Rams-0

2017........PHILA-1, NE-1

2016...... NE-1, ATL-1

2015......DENVER-0, CAROLINA-0

2014.......NE-1, SEA-2

2013.......SEA-2, DENVER-1

2012........BALT-1, SF-3

2011.......GIANTS-0, NE-2

2010.......GB-1, PITT-1

2009.......NO-0, INDY-0

2008.......PITTS-1, ARIZ-1

2007........GIANTS-0, NE-1

2006........INDY-1, CHICAGO-0

2005.......PITTS-2, SEA-3

2004.......NE-0, PHILA-3

2003......NE-1, CAROLINA-1

2002......TB-1, OAK-2

2001......NE-1, RAMS-1

2000......BALT-1, GIANTS-1

 

RECAP 22 SBs, 44 teams. 

Zero 1st rd picks... 6-5

One 1st rd pick......13-12

Two 1st rd picks..... 2-3

Three 1st rd picks...... 0-3

sorry pal but i dont want to follow the strategy of 3 teams out of 44.

and another thing. this year 3 teams had 3 of them, NO, ATL and DET and none of them made the playoffs.

and 6 teams had 2 in which 3 teams ( DAL, PHILA, and LV ) made the playoffs and all 3 lost in rd 1.

last year 9 teams had none, 14 teams had 1, 6 teams including us had 2. and 3 had 3.

if using multiple 1st rd picks on the OL is such a good thing to do why isnt everyone loading up on them. 25 teams 78% of the league have one or none. 

i have been researching this for a month or so now and these results are very alarming. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

The real reason why he left the team stems from legitimate personal issues. He actually has nothing against the Falcons either, rather, he has had bad experiences living in Atlanta. He’s been robbed 3 times—all times he was not inviting a robbery in any way—and once at gun point. His fiancé has also had a scary experience, and from what I understand there was some fallout between them and some of their friends. 

 

umm has he seen the crime in NY.? im not sure its any better here than in Atlanta

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6 minutes ago, doitny said:

sorry pal but i dont want to follow the strategy of 3 teams out of 44

I don't think he was saying that's what they should do but rather what he thinks they're going to do.  (I believe he has some insider connections.)

And partially he's saying that "if they're looking to draft (position) then here are guys I think we should go after".

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22 minutes ago, doitny said:

yes your right. 1.... not 3. and 3 years in a row none the less. thats over investment in 1st rd picks on any position.

and your wrong about the Rams being the 1st in 20 years. just to be clear im talking their own 1st rd pick, not FAs. 

2021......Rams-0, Cin-1

2020 ...... TB-1, KC-1

2019........KC-1, SF-1

2018........NE-0, Rams-0

2017........PHILA-1, NE-1

2016...... NE-1, ATL-1

2015......DENVER-0, CAROLINA-0

2014.......NE-1, SEA-2

2013.......SEA-2, DENVER-1

2012........BALT-1, SF-3

2011.......GIANTS-0, NE-2

2010.......GB-1, PITT-1

2009.......NO-0, INDY-0

2008.......PITTS-1, ARIZ-1

2007........GIANTS-0, NE-1

2006........INDY-1, CHICAGO-0

2005.......PITTS-2, SEA-3

2004.......NE-0, PHILA-3

2003......NE-1, CAROLINA-1

2002......TB-1, OAK-2

2001......NE-1, RAMS-1

2000......BALT-1, GIANTS-1

 

RECAP 22 SBs, 44 teams. 

Zero 1st rd picks... 6-5

One 1st rd pick......13-12

Two 1st rd picks..... 2-3

Three 1st rd picks...... 0-3

sorry pal but i dont want to follow the strategy of 3 teams out of 44.

and another thing. this year 3 teams had 3 of them, NO, ATL and DET and none of them made the playoffs.

and 6 teams had 2 in which 3 teams ( DAL, PHILA, and LV ) made the playoffs and all 3 lost in rd 1.

last year 9 teams had none, 14 teams had 1, 6 teams including us had 2. and 3 had 3.

if using multiple 1st rd picks on the OL is such a good thing to do why isnt everyone loading up on them. 25 teams 78% of the league have one or none. 

i have been researching this for a month or so now and these results are very alarming. 

 

 

The Rams had one player they drafted in the first round on their roster. By this logic are the Jets only allowed to draft defensive tackles or trade their first round picks?

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5 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

Njoku is one of those players who look the part, but rarely perform like it.

He’s had ample opportunities to become TE #1 in Cleveland, and never did. In fact, the Browns were forced to look for upgrades.

I can see the Jets kicking the tires with him, but I’d much prefer they look to fill this spot in the draft, and pass on signing Njoku. We have too many issues to gamble big $$$ that the light finally comes on for him.

Yeah the fact they gave Hooper a huge contract and also drafted a guy when Njoku was on the roster is a huge red flag.  I do think he's been semi productive unlike a guy like OJ Howard tho.

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42 minutes ago, derp said:

The Rams had one player they drafted in the first round on their roster. By this logic are the Jets only allowed to draft defensive tackles or trade their first round picks?

you mean Cincy, the Rams had none.

the Jets can draft anybody they want, just not OL. and especially not as high as 4.

3 out of 44 SB teams. you want to try to be #4 ? you want to try to do what 6% of the teams do and never succeed? 

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1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't think he was saying that's what they should do but rather what he thinks they're going to do.  (I believe he has some insider connections.)

And partially he's saying that "if they're looking to draft (position) then here are guys I think we should go after".

its cool pal. i dont blame Football guy.

i blame JD. he is the football guy. he should know better as to what works and what doesnt. 

these are some pretty lopsided numbers. 

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