Things that I think: Jets 2022 Offseason Edition

[Matt39]

8 minutes ago, maury77 said:

You guys are still listening to the OP after he spent all off season telling you how Wilson would slide in and start producing right away in La Fleur's offense? Ok. 

Listen yes as he seems to have a connect. Him passing it off as if it’s the right direction for the Jets is another story. Douglas has been at best meh and at worst unimpressive to date. This plan or thought process seems pretty bad.

[GreenFish]

50 minutes ago, Peteo said:

In the 4th quarter of the SB the Bengals O-line was not up to the task which is the major reason why LA won.  I am all for getting top talent for the o-line.

This is always a hot debate in Jets country. We all hunker down a debate our view. Fun stuff. For me, I’m watching games and see poor OLs losing game. A poor OL needs to be upgraded enough to be average to good and have zero weak links. However, I’m not seeing elite OLs winning games. Your team would have to be run heavy like the Ravens and Titans for the difference between a good OL and an elite OL to make a difference. No RG is out there carrying a team to victory. QBs, Edge Rushers and WRs win games. The Jets OL can be average to very good with the addition of FA RG.

With that said, if we don't get a RG in FA, I 100% believe Douglas will draft Okwanu and stick him at RG. I won’t be mad. Just disappointed. 

[BettyBoop]

So, someone spent months determining how many OL were drafted high by SB teams???  Might there be other factors for each and every one of those teams to take into consideration?  Like franchise QBs?  WRs?  Defenses?  Coaching?  

If Douglas doesn't factor in value at #4, who should he take?  WR, no.  QB, no.  TE, no.  DL, no.  LB, no.  CB, maybe but this board would have a collective nervous breakdown if he did.  Same with S.  Edge?  Maybe but each guy except for Hutch would be a reach at #4 including Thibs.  How many of those SB teams took a CB or S that high?  

Botton line, virtually every one of those teams had great coaching.  That's the one common denominator.  Hopefully we have one.

[doitny]

1 hour ago, derp said:

No, I don’t. I meant my statement literally. The Rams had one player they drafted in the first round on their roster. Aaron Donald.

So if we go by what they did, the Jets can only draft defensive tackles and trade their picks right?

im not talking about one year. didnt you see my post? 22 SBs. 44 teams.

many teams build there teams differently. all im saying according to the research the only way that doesnt work is drafting more than one OL in rd one. the more over 1 you go the less chance you have of going to the SB. 

 

[derp]

23 minutes ago, doitny said:

im not talking about one year. didnt you see my post? 22 SBs. 44 teams.

many teams build there teams differently. all im saying according to the research the only way that doesnt work is drafting more than one OL in rd one. the more over 1 you go the less chance you have of going to the SB. 

 

Kansas City didn’t have three first round picks - again, regardless of position - on your roster either. When two of the last three Super Bowl winning teams can’t meet your criteria for first round picks period, the argument falls apart a little.

Looking at drafted players is too stringent, sample sizes of any given roster construction are too small and there’s too much roster turnover in the NFL. You’ve effectively picked an extreme example and then stated that teams don’t meet the extreme example.

I don’t even think the Jets should take first round OL, but if they do and they make a Super Bowl then Becton will probably be gone by the time that happens and they won’t fit into your criteria either.

[Jetfuel66]

18 hours ago, football guy said:

Chalk this up as a rumor thread, a discussion thread, or just general discussion. As far as my initial points, they're a combination of my own observations from studying this administration over the past year-plus, conversations with people in the league, my own scouting/pulse on a situation, and media sources. I'll do my best to point out which is which. I also hope others on here will contribute because I've come to learn there are a lot of guys on here that contribute some quality stuff - whether it be information or takes

 

The priority of this offseason is to continue building around the QB position. This has been a popular topic addressed by the beat-writers, but it's been made very clear within the organization that they need to build around the QB position if they're to be successful. The way the Jets see it, there's no downside if your properly surrounding the QB position with talent. The Jets front office has admired Buffalo from afar (and to some extent Baltimore - where Douglas cut his teeth for over a decade) and when they tackled their 2021 coaching search, they wanted to somewhat replicate their model of having a stern yet player-friendly "CEO" style coach with an excellent, innovative offensive coaching staff and scheme and a uniform philosophy of building the team through the lines of scrimmage. Not only did they feel that model was most sustainable in today's game, but they felt that model was best for getting the most out of a talented young QB. Both Douglas and Saleh share similar experiences being on teams that have won in-spite of the QB play, so in their mind it isn't just about propping up Wilson, it's propping up the entire room. 

 

The particular focus early in the draft will be on the lines of scrimmage. This one seems obvious, but emphasizing it because there's been a lot of mocks out there ignoring the OL/DL in round 1. Even before Saleh, this was, is, and will continue to be Douglas's MO. He has a lot of conviction as it relates to the LOS, and if it were up to him (it is) he would take an OL in round 1 every year. Saleh is in lockstep with him. This year, you can be sure they're going to address both lines of scrimmage, and could do so with both their first-round picks.

• OFFENSIVE LINE: the team wants to improve the offensive line and continue funneling talent into that group, but make no mistake, Joe Douglas and his staff do not want to see Becton on the bench next year. In recent years, Joe Douglas was salivating at the opportunity to sign one of Brandon Scherff or Joe Thuney, but was never given a realistic chance. He also had interest in Graham Glasgow back in 2020. Clearly, Douglas hasn't been afraid to spend money or draft capital on offensive linemen so on the surface it would seem like the Jets would go in heavy for Scherff, but based on what I've gathered, I don't get the sense this one will come to fruition for a few reasons: (1) the Jets will look into extending both Fant and McGovern as they've played their way into new contracts; and (2) signing a RG of Scherff's caliber comes with caveats - specifically as it relates to flexibility and how Becton fits in the overall construction of the OL. The frustration with Becton is out in the open and moving him to RT is likely going to be the case, but the Jets don't really see it as a demotion as much as Becton's camp does. RT is just as important as LT in this scheme and is especially important in the run game, and if anything, playing him at RT would allow them to great more creative with the scheme and playcalling. Also, it would be easier for them to adjust their scheme to account for a lesser talent at RT if Becton were to miss time than it would be to replace a LT. Having been said, if the Jets find themselves in a position where they add a high-profile FA guard and have a tackle staring them in the face at #4 or #10, Douglas is going to find himself in a very tough spot because he is not prepared to give up on Becton. For this reason, I think the more likely scenario to play out is re-signing Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (or a similar caliber player), drafting an OL in round 1. I believe Evan Neal goes #1, so it would likely be Ikem Ekwonu at #4 or Trevor Penning later, then bring everyone in to compete for the top 5 spots. 
• DEFENSIVE LINE: mark this under obvious, but this is going to be another group that the Jets focus on in 2022. Ideally they would like a steady rotation of 8 DL: 4-to-5 DEs and 4-to-5 DTs. They have a solid interior, but I would expect some change in 2022. They ran a ton of wide-9 fronts in 2021, basically lining up the DTs on the outside of the OGs and the DEs wide outside of the OTs. Quinnen Williams missed some time, but he's the keystone of the group. He primarily lined up over the LG, playing most of his snaps as a pure 3-tech on the right side of the line. Nathan Shepherd, a free agent, was essentially his direct backup. My guess is he signs elsewhere. They want to bring back Folorunso Fatukasi, who played served as the teams primarily "run stuffing" DL/NT in the 1/2i-tech. Personally, I'm not confident this gets done. Both the FA and draft interior DL classes aren't deep, which could result in Foley's market gets pumped up. The Jets value him and will submit an offer, but he may need to be willing to take a "hometown discount" for it to get done. By nature of Saleh's philosophy the team will always look to have a heavy DL rotation, coupled with a big contract on the horizon for Quinnen, I don't see them making a big investment on Foley. Sheldon Rankins essentially replaced Foley on passing downs, playing on the left side of the DL or a passing down NT. I don't get the sense he will get cut, nor do I see his role really changing much, so if he does return my guess is he remains as the "6th man" of the interior DL and could see his usage scaled back to make way for JFM at the LDT spot more often. If that were the case, they may need to sign another veteran to take over Foley's early-down work or consider Jonathan Marshall in that spot. There's also the possibility that the Jets could take one of the top interior DL early in the draft... Fans are going to hate this, but I want to provide the disclaimer: do not rule out a high pick on Jordan Davis or Travis Jones. If they went that route, Davis/Jones would be the long-term answer at "left" DT/NT and could likely play all 3 downs, albeit their usage would be scaled back.  John Franklin-Myers will likely stay at LE in base formats, my guess is he will see more snaps in the interior this upcoming season. He was most effective lining up at the 3/4/5-tech spots with rather than a LEO, which lines up at the 7/9-tech. If the Jets were to move on from Rankins, my guess is JFM would see his LEO usage scaled back substantially. Kyle Phillips essentially operated as JFM's backup at the LEO spot only. I would think he'll be back as a RFA but haven't heard anything and it may be tied to how they feel about Jabari Zuniga and Hamilcar Rashed as backups. Either way, I am sure they will look for upgrades. Carl Lawson is going to slide right into the RE spot vacated by Shaq Lawson. The Jets "like" Bryce Huff, Ronnie Blair, and Tim Ward, all of whom primarily backed up Shaq Lawson at the RE spot, but they're not liked enough to prevent the team from upgrading. Again, I think back to how the construction of the Buffalo Bills have been a team Douglas admires from afar and can't help but wonder if he takes a similar approach that they have by investing several Day 1-2 picks in DEs starting with this draft. I wouldn't rule out a veteran acquisition - specifically Derek Barnett - who is close with members of the Jets coaching staff and front office dating back to their days together in PHI. Barnett did not adjust well to Gannon's defense, which limited the "wide 9" usage that he grew accustomed to during his time in PHI. The Jets were interested in Barnett before landing Carl Lawson, so you wonder if they would consider bringing him in if the price was right... if so, he would likely occupy that Bryce Huff/Ronnie Blair role as a backup. More likely, the Jets will look to add via the draft. Everything I've read and heard suggests the NFL is lower on Kayvon Thibodeaux than the media and fans; it's to the point where others who I trust that say he may not crack the Jets top 4 DE prospects. I think it's more likely the team takes a DE with their #10 pick (or later). 3 names to keep an eye on in round 1 are Jermaine Johnson, Travon Walker, and George Karlaftis. It wouldn't at all shock me if they double-dipped and selected someone like Arnold Ebiketie, Kingsley Enagbare, or Boye Mafe in the second frame. 

 

The team will invest heavily in the TE position. Everyone associated with the Jets knows that their TEs weren't good enough last year. They tried to sign Jonnu Smith in free agency, but saw him join the rival Patriots. They were high on Tommy Tremble in the 2021 draft, but after trading out of the 3rd round there really wasn't a chance to get him. One thing I'm sure of: this position will be the priority in free agency, and I have heard they are going to prioritize is David Njoku. The Browns want him back, but the question is how badly? Will they franchise tag him or make him among the higher paid players at the position when they have really good players in Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant on the roster? Time will tell, but if he makes it to the market, I would handicap the Jets as the favorite. If he's not available, it's hard to say who they would pivot to at the moment... best guesses are OJ Howard, Tyler Conklin, or Hayden Hurst. I don't get the sense the draft is filled with guys who the Jets would take in round 2 unless they moved down. More likely, that's a position they would target in rounds 3-5. There are a ton of TEs in this years class who don't get enough love, so don't be surprised if it were someone not-named Ruckert or McBride when all is said and done. 

 

How the Jets address the WR position is a hotly debated topic at 1 Jets Drive. It's been discussed with virtually everyone in the organization from ownership down to Zach Wilson himself. The certainly know that continuing to add to the WR room is a priority, but how they go about it is an entirely different story. They want Braxton Berrios back, and no, he’s not asking for $9 million a year. I think that deal gets done. They believe wholeheartedly that Elijah Moore will be an upper-echelon receiver. They think Corey Davis will show better in 2022. Still, the preference is to add a veteran, but they don't want to sign a guy just to sign a guy. Last year they were prepared to go hard after Chris Godwin had he made it to the open market; all I’ve heard with him is that he’s likely to return to TB (besides, not sure how the Jets would feel about him coming off the ACL). They have enough receivers in the room for depth purposes and will look to add someone in the draft, so carrying 6+ vets again is unlikely. Despite their feeling that Moore is a "#1" guy, they want to explore a trade for a "WR1-caliber" player, with Calvin Ridley among the most sought after names. Jeremy Fowler recently suggested Chase Claypool and rumors have connected Amari Cooper, but Ridley is the only one I’ve actually heard that will be a target. If they can't land one, they may hold off and look to acquire one in the draft, more likely on Day 2 than 1. I’ve read all the rumors connecting the Jets to the top WRs in the draft; I’ve heard some Drake London and Garrett Wilson chatter. Still, I’m not sure they would view either as an option to select at #10. More likely, I wouldn’t be surprised if they targeted someone in rounds 2-3 instead. Christian Watson has a lot of fans…

Really great stuff! Thank you for posting.

[PepPep]

16 hours ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Well I love Christian Watson so that was a great surprise at the end - would love to have him be our pick at 69 - and if we get him later - great! 

I would hate Jordan Davis - like HATE - really hope that doesn't happen. Mostly b/c of this: 

 

 

As far as the EDGE discussion is concerned. I am somewhat confused about JFM. I thought of JFM as more of an inside player who played edge this year due to injuries. I always thought he was maybe an edge on early/rushing downs and an inside rusher on passing downs. If the Jets view him as LE - OK - but between the contracts for Lawson and JFM's extension - it seems really sh*tty that we'd have to use presumably pick #10 (maybe a trade down but still a first rounder) on someone like Jermaine Johnson or George K. Like I get the rotation and all but to have two premium contracts w/ 2+ years remaining plus a first rounder on one position where only two guys will be on the field at once seems like a poor use of resources. Stack the line all you want - but premium contracts + premium draft picks just to be a part of a rotation seems kinda iffy. 

 

 

LOL Jordan Davis is the best interior lineman in the draft. 

I know you cherry picked one play where Davis may have dogged it of was tired or out of the play. 

But here's a bunch of cherry picked highlight plays. HE IS the best interior lineman in the draft and if he dropped out of the first round (lets say because he is primarily a NT) whoever drafts him will probably get a steal. 

 

[doitny]

3 hours ago, Barton said:

 

The top of this draft is whacky. Zero elite offensive playmakers. Zero. Maybe a WR at #10.

At #4, who do you take?? I'm ok with an offensive tackle based on the current mock drafts. If not, who?

There's no Jamarr Chase/Pitts/Waddle to pass on at #4 this year, IMO.

and that is how the poor get poorer and the rich stay rich.

the bad teams who pick high always have such scrutiny as to who they pick. they tell us only certain guys can be drafted at some of these spots and its a crime if there not. it influences the pick. plus GMs who pick that high dont want to bust so the take the best athlete. and thats how you get to us drafting ANOTHER  OL 3 years in a row.

the better teams picking over 20 dont have that pressure. they can pick who they want with less scrutiny. nobody screams if they take a lesser athlete but its a position of need. 

just think of this. 

2 months before the draft and JD is forced to pick between 2-3 players who are only deemed "worthy" of the 4th pick. and probably only one of those players will be there when we pick.

meanwhile KC, GB, CIN, TB and the rest of the good teams drafting late can draft whoever they want. 

actually, these draft experts have told us, JAX, DET, and HOU we have between 4-5 players to pick. makes you wonder why there are so many 1st rd busts, especially high.

 

[Sammybighead]

11 hours ago, doitny said:

yes your right. 1.... not 3. and 3 years in a row none the less. thats over investment in 1st rd picks on any position.

and your wrong about the Rams being the 1st in 20 years. just to be clear im talking their own 1st rd pick, not FAs. 

2021......Rams-0, Cin-1

2020 ...... TB-1, KC-1

2019........KC-1, SF-1

2018........NE-0, Rams-0

2017........PHILA-1, NE-1

2016...... NE-1, ATL-1

2015......DENVER-0, CAROLINA-0

2014.......NE-1, SEA-2

2013.......SEA-2, DENVER-1

2012........BALT-1, SF-3

2011.......GIANTS-0, NE-2

2010.......GB-1, PITT-1

2009.......NO-0, INDY-0

2008.......PITTS-1, ARIZ-1

2007........GIANTS-0, NE-1

2006........INDY-1, CHICAGO-0

2005.......PITTS-2, SEA-3

2004.......NE-0, PHILA-3

2003......NE-1, CAROLINA-1

2002......TB-1, OAK-2

2001......NE-1, RAMS-1

2000......BALT-1, GIANTS-1

 

RECAP 22 SBs, 44 teams. 

Zero 1st rd picks... 6-5

One 1st rd pick......13-12

Two 1st rd picks..... 2-3

Three 1st rd picks...... 0-3

sorry pal but i dont want to follow the strategy of 3 teams out of 44.

and another thing. this year 3 teams had 3 of them, NO, ATL and DET and none of them made the playoffs.

and 6 teams had 2 in which 3 teams ( DAL, PHILA, and LV ) made the playoffs and all 3 lost in rd 1.

last year 9 teams had none, 14 teams had 1, 6 teams including us had 2. and 3 had 3.

if using multiple 1st rd picks on the OL is such a good thing to do why isnt everyone loading up on them. 25 teams 78% of the league have one or none. 

i have been researching this for a month or so now and these results are very alarming. 

 

 

You raise some interesting points and i'm not discounting your research here. However, i'd be curious to know not just how many first round picks were on each oline but how many highly compensated free agents those teams brought in on the oline.

Your premise is a GM should be able to find bodies on the cheap or later in the draft that he can just plug in and they work. I think this ignores how much teams value high end oline play when they go out in FA and dish out huge contracts for olinemen. Yes, maybe the guy they gave a huge contract to wasn't drafted in the first round but someone drafted and developed that player into a stud. You're paying him in FA because you couldn't identify and develop the guy yourself. Whether the guy was drafted in the first round or someone else drafted him in a late round and developed him is irrelevant. The point is YOU VALUE high end oline play and are will to spend assets to get it (FA cash or draft picks). 

If your team has a GM that is unwilling to spend on guys on FA, then maybe your only choice to get that high end oline play is to consistently draft guys in the first. To think that any bum you pick in the 2nd round and beyond can simply step in and play effectively on your oline in your scheme is ridiculous. It's a crapshoot but your odds improve in the first round.

Teams value high end oline play. Maybe spending consecutive 1sts on oline is unorthodox, but it is one way to get there. And may I remind you our best years were keyed by our oline when we took 2 guys in the first in the same year! (and added other firsts round picks like woody and faneca). So to simply say something like "JD is crazy and should be fired if he takes another OL in 1st" is simply wrong. It depends on how he goes about constructing the rest of the team. If he's willing to spend on a good player in FA, that's fine. If not, he needs to spend high end draft assets. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

Becton just sulks in the bench? He’s extra luggage if they draft the NC State kid. Fant is the sure fire starter regardless. 
 

anywho- pass rush and touchdown scorers need to be the focus. A back in round 2 is of more value than guard or DT.

No doubt, but the part I'm inclined to believe is that - despite their disappointment in his not returning to the field - they haven't given up on him as a player. If he gets his act together - which shouldn't be that hard, really; he's not a bad kid who keeps getting arrested/suspended - he'd be hard to replicate. Plus unlike Becton, while Fant is a fine pass protector on the left side, despite his considerable size he isn't much of a run blocker. Or anyway, he hasn't been.

Even if they do part with Becton, I think they'd like him to return to the field first rather than selling low: the last anyone saw of him he sat out the season and the coaches were none too pleased with him because of it. But if he gets back onto the field and looks decent, even in a system that doesn't maximize his strengths, someone is always looking for a left tackle who's shown that the NFL's game/speed isn't too big for him. Thing is the Jets don't really need a LT, and he may not be such an ideal fit either. But unless they can pry another 1st round pick off someone before/during this year's draft, I've got trouble with them burning even a late 1st rounder on the OL yet again. 

100% agree that the focus should be on offensive passing playmakers and/or defenders who stop the other team's passing playmakers. The only reason I could at least get past an OL pick in round 2 is they still have 3 more upper 1st + upper 2nd round picks (plus an upper 3rd, upper 4th, and mid/upper 4th). So that wouldn't be tragic on its face, except I don't expect the team to head into the draft without acquiring another RG starter. If it's a sub-$10MM/yr veteran with just 1 year guaranteed, then ok. If it's 1.5 or more years guaranteed, then round 3 is probably the highest I'd go (and that'd better be someone who had a borderline 1st to upper 2nd round grade before the draft started).

[Matt39]

The Jets are allowed to draft more than one receiver and running back in a draft. The Jets have done a bit more on offense finally in the draft, but it’s still not enough. Imagine having Elijah Mitchell paired with Carter? 

[32EBoozer]

37 minutes ago, PepPep said:

LOL Jordan Davis is the best interior lineman in the draft. 

I know you cherry picked one play where Davis may have dogged it of was tired or out of the play. 

But here's a bunch of cherry picked highlight plays. HE IS the best interior lineman in the draft and if he dropped out of the first round (lets say because he is primarily a NT) whoever drafts him will probably get a steal. 

 

What say ye @Lith Any chance this guy is there in round 2?

[Lith]

31 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

What say ye @Lith Any chance this guy is there in round 2?

Doubtful.  But I would be happier with a guy like Devonte Wyatt in the 3rd (if he makes it that far, which I doubt since the Sr Bowl.).

And the clip that was shown earlier from the first Bama game -- where we got our asses kicked.  I heard a report, not sure if it is true or not, that there was a non-Covid illness that impacted several defensive players in the Bama game, Not making excuses, Bama kicked our asses that game, but if true it could explain the lack of effort and the defense wearing down in that game, which never happened in any other game this season.

[Larz]

2 very good D lines control the run and frustrate 2 very good offenses in the Super Bowl. 
 

Jets fans “if they draft Dline I swear to god…”

 

?

[Sammybighead]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

What say ye @Lith Any chance this guy is there in round 2?

Why would we want a 3-4 nose when Saleh is looking for quick, penetrating single gap dlinenan? I don't get the scheme fit here

[PepPep]

19 minutes ago, Lith said:

Doubtful.  But I would be happier with a guy like Devonte Wyatt in the 3rd (if he makes it that far, which I doubt since the Sr Bowl.).

And the clip that was shown earlier from the first Bama game -- where we got our asses kicked.  I heard a report, not sure if it is true or not, that there was a non-Covid illness that impacted several defensive players in the Bama game, Not making excuses, Bama kicked our asses that game, but if true it could explain the lack of effort and the defense wearing down in that game, which never happened in any other game this season.

So first off. Congrats. I know a few Dawg fans and they were ecstatic with the big win.  

Second- I haven't done a deep dive on interior D-linemen but I really do think Davis is by far the top one in the draft. *This excludes guys like Leal and Logan Hall who I consider more as Edge defenders. I like Wyatt and yes, maybe in the 3rd it would be good value. But I still have guys like Travis jones and Perrion Winfrey ahead of him (although the players are different and would benefit from different systems). Jones is a true NT while Winfrey is more of a pass rushing 3 tech. 

Finally- I really think the Jets are high on Marshall and to a lesser degree, Smart. They may not want to invest any major resources on another interior d-lineman. Like, nothing higher than low priced FA, UDFA or low draft pick...Rd. 5 or Rd. 6 if they get one via trade.     

[doitny]

39 minutes ago, derp said:

Kansas City didn’t have three first round picks - again, regardless of position - on your roster either. When two of the last three Super Bowl winning teams can’t meet your criteria for first round picks period, the argument falls apart a little.

 

im talking OL not the rest of the team. and you pick 2 teams who traded away their 1st rd picks. 

my criteria for winning a SB is not to draft 3 OL in rd 1. 

1 hour ago, derp said:

 

Looking at drafted players is too stringent, sample sizes of any given roster construction are too small and there’s too much roster turnover in the NFL. You’ve effectively picked an extreme example and then stated that teams don’t meet the extreme example.

 

roster turnover happens alot. thats why its extreme to have 3 on the same team..... just like we might do.

good idea for research. i will look into how many teams draft OL in rd 1 since 2000.

i already know KC had 1, Rams 2, Buff 2, Balt 3..... and those teams spread them out. and Det had 8. 

1 hour ago, derp said:

 

I don’t even think the Jets should take first round OL, but if they do and they make a Super Bowl then Becton will probably be gone by the time that happens and they won’t fit into your criteria either.

and thats another point. why draft 3 if you cant keep them? 

my guess is when you draft someone in rd 1 he should be good enough for a 2nd contract. your not drafting guys for just 4 years that high.

even if Becton is an ALL PRO and AVT is equally as good. now you add this #4 pick who at that spot should be awesome. your not paying all 3. you might not be able to keep 2 of them. so why draft them? 

now if JD drafts a WR in 2019 and maybe an Edge this year and both became really good you can justify given them big contracts. you spread the money around, not sinking 50-60 mil in 3 spots on the OL.

so if Becton is gone if we get to a SB then 3 OL did not help us get there. then why draft them?

 

[Barton]

Becton is essentially not on this team next season. You cant count on him for anything. So unless Moses or another legit right tackle is signed, then Oline is definitely a huge need on this team. 

[varjet]

46 minutes ago, Barton said:

Becton is essentially not on this team next season. You cant count on him for anything. So unless Moses or another legit right tackle is signed, then Oline is definitely a huge need on this team. 

The Jets are in a bit of a funny spot with Moses and may be LDT.  They want to start.  They will be reluctant to sign with a team that is not going to start them.  

So Becton makes things bit difficult.  TB is not worrying about Wirfs.  He is their RT.   He could end up their LT.  TB has cheap backup OL.  TB and KC have invested substantially in their OL.  LAR and CIN, not as much.   CIN will this off season.   But with Becton, you can’t count on his, and you can’t get rid of him unless in a trade that takes his guaranteed salary and gives back something face saving.   He is destined to be another Jets single contract draft pick.  Can we name the Jets draft picks over the past 10 years who have signed second contracts?  It is not a long list.  It may not even be a list.  

But I do think that the trend is to draft OL higher than maybe five years ago.  OL higher, RB lower.   It is hard to get good OL in FA.   If someone made a good trade offer for Becton before FA, I would take it in a second and move on.  

[redlichtie]

6 hours ago, Peteo said:

In the 4th quarter of the SB the Bengals O-line was not up to the task which is the major reason why LA won.  I am all for getting top talent for the o-line.

Or looked at another way, it might have had something to do with the fact the other team invested heavily in it’s DEFENSE! and had a bunch of 1st & 2nd round picks making an impact 

Donald, Floyd, Miller and Jalen  Ramsey were all first rounders….A’Shawn Robinson high 2nd

Defense still wins championships 

 

[doitny]

1 hour ago, Sammybighead said:

You raise some interesting points and i'm not discounting your research here. However, i'd be curious to know not just how many first round picks were on each oline but how many highly compensated free agents those teams brought in on the oline.

Your premise is a GM should be able to find bodies on the cheap or later in the draft that he can just plug in and they work. I think this ignores how much teams value high end oline play when they go out in FA and dish out huge contracts for olinemen. Yes, maybe the guy they gave a huge contract to wasn't drafted in the first round but someone drafted and developed that player into a stud. You're paying him in FA because you couldn't identify and develop the guy yourself. Whether the guy was drafted in the first round or someone else drafted him in a late round and developed him is irrelevant. The point is YOU VALUE high end oline play and are will to spend assets to get it (FA cash or draft picks). 

If your team has a GM that is unwilling to spend on guys on FA, then maybe your only choice to get that high end oline play is to consistently draft guys in the first. To think that any bum you pick in the 2nd round and beyond can simply step in and play effectively on your oline in your scheme is ridiculous. It's a crapshoot but your odds improve in the first round.

Teams value high end oline play. Maybe spending consecutive 1sts on oline is unorthodox, but it is one way to get there. And may I remind you our best years were keyed by our oline when we took 2 guys in the first in the same year! (and added other firsts round picks like woody and faneca). So to simply say something like "JD is crazy and should be fired if he takes another OL in 1st" is simply wrong. It depends on how he goes about constructing the rest of the team. If he's willing to spend on a good player in FA, that's fine. If not, he needs to spend high end draft assets. 

but every GM does find cheap talent for the OL. 

and most teams have no choice cause they got a QB taking a big chunk of their cap space.

like KC, me and Sperm were talking about how can they keep Thuney making 17 mil and Brown who will get maybe 20 mil a year with a QB making 45 mil. im sure they could find a decent enough replace for one or the other for half the price. 

you value a good OL but its just not a position you sink big money into. and you know we cant afford 3 guys making big money on the OL. so where just developing one or maybe 2 for other teams meanwhile we used our 1st rd picks and they just used money.

JD did find talent without spending big money. Fant, McG and Moses played good enough. traded for LDT. 

3 other QBs played well behind this OL. Zachs troubles were on him and the WRs not the OL. 

we should thank Pitts for Faneca. thought he did play there for 10 years they got there moneys worth.

we could have a SB if we drafted TE Vernon Davis who went 6th instead of Brick. 

and kept John Abraham instead of Mangold. 

think about that. a pretty good TE who im sure people were saying wasnt worthy of the 4th pick catching passes from Favre and Sanchez. 

and an Edge who in 8 years after the Jets had double digit sacks in 5 of them including 2 PBs. 

we didnt need much more to get to the SB in 2009 and 2010.

and Whitworth who just won a SB went in rd 2. Jahri Evans in rd 4. both had more PBs than Brick. and Kallil went in rd 2 the next year. 

see some of you think that draft was the corner stone of our success. i look at it as a mistake. we could have had Fant and McG and went to a SB with Davis and Abraham. 

 

[maury77]

6 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Listen yes as he seems to have a connect. Him passing it off as if it’s the right direction for the Jets is another story. Douglas has been at best meh and at worst unimpressive to date. This plan or thought process seems pretty bad.

Some people on this board consider communicating with a media guy on Twitter as having a "connection". Take it for what it is. I was an "agent" for a fairly well known NFL draft guy for a while. I could certainly ask my former client for some "insider info", does that mean that I suddenly have a connection?

[varjet]

The OL analysis looks pretty simple.  

We can plot the cap investment of each team in their OL.  Let’s say top 6 players.    You can also note the investment in first contract draft picks.   

I like using TB and KC as examples.   

TB has a veteran line, and some of the contracts are backended that will explode this year and next.  They were structured to win the SB this year and last here.  

Donovan Smith (2nd round pick, 2nd contract), Ali Marpet (ditto), Ryan Jensen (2nd contract, among highest paid C), Alex Cappa (3rd round pick, 1st contract), Wirfs (1st round pick, 1st contract).  Their OL6 makes likes $1mm.   That is 3 relatively expensive 2nd contracts and 2 premium draft picks.  They are not scrounging.  

KC?  They found three relatively inexpensive players that are locked up for another 3 years.  Score for them.  They can pay Thuney and Brown then.  

Orlando Brown (traded 1st round pick, bill comes due), Thuney (2nd contract, big $), Creed Humphrey (score draft pick, 2nd round, 1st contract), Trey Smith (enuf said), Niang (3rd round pick, 1st contract).

How does the Jets Fant, AVT, McGovern, LDT or Ekwenu, Becton stack up in OL investments.  Probably on the high side, but that his not changing unless they can find a cheap RG who is actually any good.  

[Lith]

3 hours ago, PepPep said:

So first off. Congrats. I know a few Dawg fans and they were ecstatic with the big win.  

Second- I haven't done a deep dive on interior D-linemen but I really do think Davis is by far the top one in the draft. *This excludes guys like Leal and Logan Hall who I consider more as Edge defenders. I like Wyatt and yes, maybe in the 3rd it would be good value. But I still have guys like Travis jones and Perrion Winfrey ahead of him (although the players are different and would benefit from different systems). Jones is a true NT while Winfrey is more of a pass rushing 3 tech. 

Finally- I really think the Jets are high on Marshall and to a lesser degree, Smart. They may not want to invest any major resources on another interior d-lineman. Like, nothing higher than low priced FA, UDFA or low draft pick...Rd. 5 or Rd. 6 if they get one via trade.     

Thanks, was a great W for us, and a long time coming.  We had been close so many times, and all of our major rivals had at least one Natty.  It was nice to get ours finally.

Agree with everythng you said.  Davis is the best IDL in this draft,, I am not suggesting Wyatt is better.   Just that if it was a choice of taking Davis in the first or Wyatt in the 3rd.  I would rather take Wyatt in the 3rd.  Don't know much about Winfrey & Jones beyond what I saw and heard Sr Bowl week, which was impressive.  

 

[Sammybighead]

1 hour ago, doitny said:

but every GM does find cheap talent for the OL. 

and most teams have no choice cause they got a QB taking a big chunk of their cap space.

like KC, me and Sperm were talking about how can they keep Thuney making 17 mil and Brown who will get maybe 20 mil a year with a QB making 45 mil. im sure they could find a decent enough replace for one or the other for half the price. 

you value a good OL but its just not a position you sink big money into. and you know we cant afford 3 guys making big money on the OL. so where just developing one or maybe 2 for other teams meanwhile we used our 1st rd picks and they just used money.

JD did find talent without spending big money. Fant, McG and Moses played good enough. traded for LDT. 

3 other QBs played well behind this OL. Zachs troubles were on him and the WRs not the OL. 

we should thank Pitts for Faneca. thought he did play there for 10 years they got there moneys worth.

we could have a SB if we drafted TE Vernon Davis who went 6th instead of Brick. 

and kept John Abraham instead of Mangold. 

think about that. a pretty good TE who im sure people were saying wasnt worthy of the 4th pick catching passes from Favre and Sanchez. 

and an Edge who in 8 years after the Jets had double digit sacks in 5 of them including 2 PBs. 

we didnt need much more to get to the SB in 2009 and 2010.

and Whitworth who just won a SB went in rd 2. Jahri Evans in rd 4. both had more PBs than Brick. and Kallil went in rd 2 the next year. 

see some of you think that draft was the corner stone of our success. i look at it as a mistake. we could have had Fant and McG and went to a SB with Davis and Abraham. 

 

A bit far fetched dreaming. We did get to the AFC championship game on the strength of our oline and the back of Darelle Revis. You scenario is a guess at best.

Also, you argue against yourself. You say every GM finds cheap and effective talent on the oline. Then you bring up KC who went out and sunk HUGE dollars and drafts picks to upgrade the oline last year cause they couldn't find cheap & effective talent.

Then you bring up Whitworth who was drafted by the Bengals and signed to a big FA deal by LA because they simply couldn't find and develop their own guy.

And when you talk about Fant, McG and LDT, keep in mind they are all only signed through next year or are already a FA. So you going to pay all 3 of those guys (who are average at best) the money they demand because all 3 believe they are starters in this league? This doesn't even include Moses who certainly will want to start and want a payraise.

Using premium draft assets on the oline again isn't about just improving a good unit, but also planning for an uncertain future. We don't know what we'll get out of Becton either! I personally have ZERO issue with using a 1st round pick on the oline again and will applaud JD for doing so. It shows he cares about Zach's development, cares about jump starting the running game, and is planning for the future where, other than AVT, none of the starters are locked up long term or can be trusted (i.e. Becton).

P.S. not to sound like a jerk but your sentences are hard to follow, I couldn't really figure out what you were trying to say in half of it

[derp]

3 hours ago, doitny said:

im talking OL not the rest of the team. and you pick 2 teams who traded away their 1st rd picks. 

my criteria for winning a SB is not to draft 3 OL in rd 1. 

roster turnover happens alot. thats why its extreme to have 3 on the same team..... just like we might do.

good idea for research. i will look into how many teams draft OL in rd 1 since 2000.

i already know KC had 1, Rams 2, Buff 2, Balt 3..... and those teams spread them out. and Det had 8. 

and thats another point. why draft 3 if you cant keep them? 

my guess is when you draft someone in rd 1 he should be good enough for a 2nd contract. your not drafting guys for just 4 years that high.

even if Becton is an ALL PRO and AVT is equally as good. now you add this #4 pick who at that spot should be awesome. your not paying all 3. you might not be able to keep 2 of them. so why draft them? 

now if JD drafts a WR in 2019 and maybe an Edge this year and both became really good you can justify given them big contracts. you spread the money around, not sinking 50-60 mil in 3 spots on the OL.

so if Becton is gone if we get to a SB then 3 OL did not help us get there. then why draft them?

 

Me choosing the teams that traded their picks is kind of the point. It’s impossible for them to meet your criteria and I’m sure those aren’t the only ones, I didn’t go back far.

The Jets are an extreme the other way in that they’ll have five first round picks in a three year period and all of them will be on the roster.

Again I don’t think they should take a first round OL but if they do it’ll be because they don’t want to keep Becton not because they can’t. First round picks fail to work out all the time.

A different angle on why the your exercise doesn’t work for me. Over the period you described, two Super Bowl QB’s were drafted between 2 and 5 overall by the team they played the Super Bowl for, and only one other one was drafted between 6 and 10. Should teams not take QB’s between 2 and 10? Are the Jets screwed anyway by that logic - unless Wilson gets hurt? 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Some people on this board consider communicating with a media guy on Twitter as having a "connection". Take it for what it is. I was an "agent" for a fairly well known NFL draft guy for a while. I could certainly ask my former client for some "insider info", does that mean that I suddenly have a connection?

I mean, kinda, yeah. Spill the info bro!

[football guy]

8 hours ago, JetsRay said:

Great info and great thread, thank you.

Any thoughts on if Hamilton is a consideration at #4 or #10, is this particular player (not the position) a consideration given his talent level?  If there is no Hamilton, I understand the team is not looking to upgrade the position this high in the draft.

If you asked me this 3 months ago I would say absolutely not. My opinion changed about 1-2 months ago. I think there's a real chance they take him simply because he's the best player in the draft by a wide margin. He's the Kyle Pitts of this class. and Kyle Pitts was their top non-QB last year. In an ideal world I don't think they would volunteer to take a DB with a top 10 pick, but in a draft that lacks elite talent I can absolutely see it happening. He's Kam Chancellor with more speed and superior playmaking ability. 

[football guy]

18 hours ago, doitny said:

umm has he seen the crime in NY.? im not sure its any better here than in Atlanta

Have you ever been to Florham Park and the surrounding areas?

[Integrity28]

Jets fans: “Our TEs are terrible!”

Also Jets fans: “Let’s give a starting TE free agent contract to the third string TE from the Browns who never met his potential!”

[football guy]

19 hours ago, doitny said:

yes your right. 1.... not 3. and 3 years in a row none the less. thats over investment in 1st rd picks on any position.

and your wrong about the Rams being the 1st in 20 years. just to be clear im talking their own 1st rd pick, not FAs. 

2021......Rams-0, Cin-1

2020 ...... TB-1, KC-1

2019........KC-1, SF-1

2018........NE-0, Rams-0

2017........PHILA-1, NE-1

2016...... NE-1, ATL-1

2015......DENVER-0, CAROLINA-0

2014.......NE-1, SEA-2

2013.......SEA-2, DENVER-1

2012........BALT-1, SF-3

2011.......GIANTS-0, NE-2

2010.......GB-1, PITT-1

2009.......NO-0, INDY-0

2008.......PITTS-1, ARIZ-1

2007........GIANTS-0, NE-1

2006........INDY-1, CHICAGO-0

2005.......PITTS-2, SEA-3

2004.......NE-0, PHILA-3

2003......NE-1, CAROLINA-1

2002......TB-1, OAK-2

2001......NE-1, RAMS-1

2000......BALT-1, GIANTS-1

 

RECAP 22 SBs, 44 teams. 

Zero 1st rd picks... 6-5

One 1st rd pick......13-12

Two 1st rd picks..... 2-3

Three 1st rd picks...... 0-3

sorry pal but i dont want to follow the strategy of 3 teams out of 44.

and another thing. this year 3 teams had 3 of them, NO, ATL and DET and none of them made the playoffs.

and 6 teams had 2 in which 3 teams ( DAL, PHILA, and LV ) made the playoffs and all 3 lost in rd 1.

last year 9 teams had none, 14 teams had 1, 6 teams including us had 2. and 3 had 3.

if using multiple 1st rd picks on the OL is such a good thing to do why isnt everyone loading up on them. 25 teams 78% of the league have one or none. 

i have been researching this for a month or so now and these results are very alarming. 

The entire argument is ridden with a fallacious attribution of past teams/transactions as proof of causation for future results. "Because team X did something this way, we will/won't win a superbowl if we do Y. We should do what team X did." 

How many teams have gone 5 consecutive drafts without a first-round pick and still won the championship? Because the Rams did it does that mean future teams who trade all their first-round picks will be successful and win championships?

How many teams in the past 20 years have had a first-round WR on their roster. Should teams not take WRs in the first round since most of the teams that won either didn't have a first-round WR or traded for someone else's first-round receiver?

 

I'm not saying I disagree with the notion that the Jets should focus on other positions because the OL is not end-all-be-all, but I think your trying to express a position in a very flawed way. Instead of arguing "don't draft an OL", maybe suggest that pass rushers are more important to a team's overall success? Either way, the Jets aren't thinking so far ahead the way we're generalizing here. The reason why they want to invest heavily in the OL is because more talented OLs usually correlate with a smoother development for young QBs. It's not a proven fact, but it's an observation the team has made and one they seek to expand on. Hell, I'm sure Joe Douglas would like to say that the Jets are the first team to win a Super Bowl in recent memory with 3 home-grown first-round OL... I can promise you that statistic is not going to change his outlook. 

[Beerfish]

26 minutes ago, football guy said:

If you asked me this 3 months ago I would say absolutely not. My opinion changed about 1-2 months ago. I think there's a real chance they take him simply because he's the best player in the draft by a wide margin. He's the Kyle Pitts of this class. and Kyle Pitts was their top non-QB last year. In an ideal world I don't think they would volunteer to take a DB with a top 10 pick, but in a draft that lacks elite talent I can absolutely see it happening. He's Kam Chancellor with more speed and superior playmaking ability. 

So was friggin jamal adams, jamal adams was not a box safety when we drafted him he was an awesome sauce do it all safety.

If the jets drafted hamilton he would have to be a pro bowler for 10 years straight including his rookie year to justify the pick.

If the jets draft a safety at #4 douglas should be immediately fired.

[Matt39]

1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

So was friggin jamal adams, jamal adams was not a box safety when we drafted him he was an awesome sauce do it all safety.

If the jets drafted hamilton he would have to be a pro bowler for 10 yeas straight including his rookie year to justify the pick.

If the jets draft a safety at #4 douglas should be immediately fired.

Adams was the same player at LSU. 

[Matt39]

26 minutes ago, football guy said:

If you asked me this 3 months ago I would say absolutely not. My opinion changed about 1-2 months ago. I think there's a real chance they take him simply because he's the best player in the draft by a wide margin. He's the Kyle Pitts of this class. and Kyle Pitts was their top non-QB last year. In an ideal world I don't think they would volunteer to take a DB with a top 10 pick, but in a draft that lacks elite talent I can absolutely see it happening. He's Kam Chancellor with more speed and superior playmaking ability. 

Hamilton has to run 4.4 or below and blow up the short explosion drills at the combine for anyone to buy this. His tape and numbers alone do not indicate best player in the draft.

[Beerfish]

2 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Adams was the same player at LSU. 

No he was listed just as he was when he went to the seahwaks an awesome sauce do it all guy,  Was he always that way?  Yes which means he is not justifiable to being a top pick.