Daniel Jones’ contract status with Giants is in uncharted waters

[doitny]

Daniel Jones’ contract status with Giants is in uncharted waters

By 

Ryan Dunleavy

 

Daniel Jones always has been difficult to define.

He was a top-10 draft pick who began his college career as a walk-on. He is built like a pocket passer but runs like a scrambler. He is a southerner with the perfect temperament for New York.

So, it should come as no surprise then that — despite all the talk that declining the fifth-year option on Jones’ contract for 2023 is a no-brainer for the Giants — there really isn’t a worthy comparison to his situation over the eight-year history of teams making this critical first-deadline quarterback judgment.

“Based on what he has done so far, I’m not sure he’s a starting quarterback if he were in free agency,” one league source told The Post. “As an agent, you have to be candid with your client and hope he gets a chance to change the narrative — and look at it as a league-wide audition. For the Giants, if he happens to play well and you have to franchise tag him in 2023, that’s a nice problem to have.”

Since the NFL rookie wage scale and fifth-year team option for first-round picks (decisions are made after three seasons) were implemented with the 2011 draft class, 25 decisions have been made on quarterbacks: Fifteen teams exercised the option and 10 did not.

Assuming the Giants do not take the unlikely step of signing Jones to a contract extension this offseason, two trends emerge that don’t play in his favor: No team that declined a fifth-year option has later regretted it. And no quarterback who played on the final year of his contract — whether Year 4 when the option is declined or Year 5 when it is exercised without an extension — has earned a second contract as a starter.

The Giants have until early May to decide whether to exercise Jones’ fifth-year option and fully guarantee him $21.3 million — a 156 percent increase over his $8.3 million salary cap hit in 2022 — or decline the option and force Jones to play to earn his next contract in 2022.

Here is a closer look at history:

Options declined

Of the 10 quarterbacks whose options were declined, five — Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch and Josh Rosen — already had been traded or released by the time the decision was due, which does not apply to Jones. Four of those five made fewer than five career starts after their fourth NFL season, including two who were out of the league after two seasons.

There are less extreme ways to flame out, however.

Jake Locker began his fourth season as a starter — just as Jones is expected to for the Giants — but the story of his career (injury and inconsistency) continued and he retired the following March. Christian Ponder began his fourth season as third-stringer and later became a journeyman out of the league after six seasons. E.J. Manuel was a third-stringer by his third season and later was twice cut.

Teddy Bridgewater’s option was declined as he recovered from a career-threatening leg injury. Jones’ neck injury is not considered in that realm. Bridgewater missed nearly two full seasons for the Vikings but since has made 35 starts for other teams.

Six quarterbacks have seen their option exercised without signing an extension after either three or four seasons. For now, the group includes Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson, all of whom are scheduled to be starters in 2022 on the option.

The top two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft — Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota — are the only two who have done what those three 2018 first-rounders might have to do … and what Jones could be asked to do in 2023. Neither earned an extension under the pressure — Winston led the NFL in interceptions and Mariota lost his starting job to Ryan Tannehill — and both landed elsewhere to become backups on second contracts.

Robert Griffin III wound up in a since-closed loophole. The former Offensive Rookie of the Year’s option was exercised by Washington back when the salary was only guaranteed against injury, and then he was released without payment after spending most of his fourth season as a third-stringer. That change to the rule, fully guaranteeing options, hurts Jones’ case.

Closest comparisons

The least likely scenario is for Jones to follow the path of the six quarterbacks who signed lucrative extensions after three seasons. Three others re-signed after four seasons, rendering the option moot.

The Giants’ fear, of course, is that they make the wrong decision and it all clicks for Jones somewhere else. But that only has happened once — when Tannehill signed an extension after three seasons, the Dolphins decided to move on after six and he found unexpected stardom with the Titans.

So, where does Jones fit best in the spectrum?

Mitch Trubisky’s option was declined by the Bears in 2020 — the final year before options were fully guaranteed — despite a more accomplished three-year résumé (Pro Bowl selection, playoff berth and 23-18 record) than Jones’ (12-25, no playoffs). Trubisky’s fourth season began with him having to beat out a veteran challenger (Nick Foles) and his fifth season was spent as a backup for the Bills under the watch of new Giants general manager Joe Schoen and new head coach Brian Daboll. Now, Trubisky is eyeing a starting job entering free agency.

It’s possible Trubisky could follow two other former Bills quarterbacks (Jake Fromm and Davis Webb) to the Giants as Jones’ chief competition. Wouldn’t that be ironic?

[doitny]

i thought this was an interesting article. about trends and history of the 5 year option.

[Hal N of Provo]

6 minutes ago, doitny said:

i thought this was an interesting article. about trends and history of the 5 year option.

All or nothing for a 1st round QB. 

[doitny]

2 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

All or nothing for a 1st round QB. 

this is the most interesting quote

No team that declined a fifth-year option has later regretted it. And no quarterback who played on the final year of his contract — whether Year 4 when the option is declined or Year 5 when it is exercised without an extension — has earned a second contract as a starter.

 

[Hal N of Provo]

2 minutes ago, doitny said:

this is the most interesting quote

No team that declined a fifth-year option has later regretted it. And no quarterback who played on the final year of his contract — whether Year 4 when the option is declined or Year 5 when it is exercised without an extension — has earned a second contract as a starter.

 

It’s set.  
 

If you don’t have a QB that you think will be a top 5-10 QB, burn it down and start over.   It’s part of the crazy pressure but it makes sense.  A FQB changes everything.  

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

If you don’t have a QB that you think will be a top 5-10 QB, burn it down and start over.

I'd have said Top 15, but I completely agree.

[Hal N of Provo]

15 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'd have said Top 15, but I completely agree.

We are on the same page I just think the top 15 all give the hope they will be top QBs that next season.  

[jeremy2020]

He and Sam Darnold can open a restaurant in Sante Fe. 

[Beerfish]

Daniel Jones is one of the few QBs of this ilk that I think has shown enough promise to be redeemable under the right situation.

[Rangers9]

I think Jones is a lot better than Trubisky and the 21 million in this market not that much for a starting Qb. If Jones not injured the Giants would prob have been competitive last year. It was only after he got hurt that things fell apart for them. 

[sourceworx]

Jones is the next Ryan Tannehill. His career will blossom once he's on another team.

[Larz]

People pay charters for this ?

lol

what idiot wrote that headline ???

 

holy crap I can’t read 

getting old sucks ???

[Jet_Engine1]

3 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

He and Sam Darnold can open a Convenience store in Sante Fe. 

Fixed.

 

It'll be called Pick 'n Drop

[DetroitRed]

I think if they implement more running he could change his game for the better.  He would need to improve on the fumbles 

[JoJoTownsell1]

18 hours ago, sourceworx said:

Jones is the next Ryan Tannehill. His career will blossom once he's on another team.

Yeah, in 2 years when he is starting for the Portland Breakers in the USFL he will prove all the haters wrong.