It's Combine Week

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, Lith said:

Still think the sweet spot for WR is day 2.  

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

[varjet]

From the above:

• Athletes move to the market.  The increased demand for TEs and use of the Shanahan offense has caused athletes to move to TE.   same thing with EDGE.
• Ekwenu really does not have elite T size.  Good G size.  Watch this space. 
• Linderbaum is short and light for an elite C.  Ditto.  
• Both Ekwenu and Linderbaum will be good NFL players.   Wirts was thought too small for T, at least LT, at 6-5, 320.  

[T0mShane]

30 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

He def "plays" faster than that, whatever that means. His vertical was terrible too though -- I wouldn't write him off but he's not an elite athlete which is a little disappointing.

Ehhh. Similar numbers to DeAndre Hopkins, and much better than Cooper Kupp’s, who are far and away the two best receivers in football. 

[ZachEY]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Ehhh. Similar numbers to DeAndre Hopkins, and much better than Cooper Kupp’s, who are far and away the two best receivers in football. 

Re: Cupp though, any word on his lunch pail or first man in last man out?

[Matt39]

2 hours ago, Lith said:

After yesterday, the only WR I am considering in the top 10 is Garrett Wilson.  Probably the best route runner in this class.  Burks needed to "blow up" the combine to move into top 10 consideration.  He was ok.  Certainly did not display the incredible athleticism I would have like to see to make him a top 10 consideration.  I would not conisder anyone at 4, maybe Wilson at 10.

Still think the sweet spot for WR is day 2.  

Fwiw, Matt Waldman, who’s pretty good has Olave over Wilson. This was before the 40 times too.

[bla bla bla]

30 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

   
Implodes??? A little over the top, no?

haha perhaps a little, I do think it should make us think twice about WR at 10. I like using one of 35 or 38 on one instead.

[T0mShane]

10 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Re: Cupp though, any word on his lunch pail or first man in last man out?

Lunchpailness is worth -.06 seconds in the forty, pal.

[mrcoops]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

Elijah Moore was a pretty good day 2 pick, no?

[Flightattendant]

3 minutes ago, mrcoops said:

Elijah Moore was a pretty good day 2 pick, no?

Played less than Becton in his rookie season. So by rights he's a fat lazy prick no?

[mrcoops]

1 minute ago, Flightattendant said:

Played less than Becton in his rookie season. So by rights he's a fat lazy prick no?

Eh....no.

[Flightattendant]

Just now, mrcoops said:

Eh....no.

Forgot about the double standards.

[mrcoops]

2 minutes ago, Flightattendant said:

Forgot about the double standards.

What the hell are you talking about?

[derp]

35 minutes ago, Warfish said:

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

NFL receiving yards leaders in order:

Cooper Kupp - third round

Justin Jefferson - drafted in 20's

Davante Adams - second round

Ja'Marr Chase - top 5 pick

Mark Andrews - third round

Tyreek Hill - fifth round

Stefon Diggs - fifth round

Tyler Lockett - third round

Dionte Johnson - third round

DJ Moore - drafted in 20's

Mike Williams - top 10 pick

Keenan Allen - third round

Travis Kelce - third round

Chris Godwin - third round

CeeDee Lamb - drafted mid first round

[Flightattendant]

1 minute ago, mrcoops said:

What the hell are you talking about?

After his rookie season Becton was tagged with the injury prone label. So by rights Moore is even more so because he played less games. That's the standard that was set on this forum ?‍♂️

[Jdub03]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

NFL receiving yards leaders in order:

Cooper Kupp - third round

Justin Jefferson - drafted in 20's

Davante Adams - second round

Ja'Marr Chase - top 5 pick

Mark Andrews - third round

Tyreek Hill - fifth round

Stefon Diggs - fifth round

Tyler Lockett - third round

Dionte Johnson - third round

DJ Moore - drafted in 20's

Mike Williams - top 10 pick

Keenan Allen - third round

Travis Kelce - third round

Chris Godwin - third round

CeeDee Lamb - drafted mid first round

This tells me we need to stock pile 3rd round picks, lol.

[Rhg1084]

14 minutes ago, derp said:

NFL receiving yards leaders in order:

Cooper Kupp - third round

Justin Jefferson - drafted in 20's

Davante Adams - second round

Ja'Marr Chase - top 5 pick

Mark Andrews - third round

Tyreek Hill - fifth round

Stefon Diggs - fifth round

Tyler Lockett - third round

Dionte Johnson - third round

DJ Moore - drafted in 20's

Mike Williams - top 10 pick

Keenan Allen - third round

Travis Kelce - third round

Chris Godwin - third round

CeeDee Lamb - drafted mid first round

Should we pull up the list of WRs the Jets have drafted over the year?

[HawkeyeJet]

With the 38th pick in the NFL draft the New York Jets select Tyler “T-Rex” Linderbaum, Center, Iowa

[derp]

Just now, Rhg1084 said:

Should we pull up the list of WRs the Jets have drafted over the year?

I don’t think it really has a place in the conversation about the best place to draft wide receivers. It’s just a smaller sample size of looking at the same thing.

And the point is twofold - one that plenty of star wide receivers are drafted outside the first round, and two that you’re not getting any certainty when you draft a wide receiver in the first round.

[BeaconJet]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think it really has a place in the conversation about the best place to draft wide receivers. It’s just a smaller sample size of looking at the same thing.

And the point is twofold - one that plenty of star wide receivers are drafted outside the first round, and two that you’re not getting any certainty when you draft a wide receiver in the first round.

And day 2 is far from mid-to-late round anyway.  Plenty of starting caliber players drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 

[Warfish]

41 minutes ago, mrcoops said:

Elijah Moore was a pretty good day 2 pick, no?

Ok, this may be an "Fish is too old-school for his own good" issue then, lol.

"Day 1" in my head is the old Saturday Draft guys, Rounds 1, 2 and I think 3?

"Day 2" guys are Sunday guys, the mid-late rounders.

I haven't quite aligned myself with the current (crappy IMO) Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday draftapalooza system.  

I suppose if by "Day 2" we're talking "2nd Round" then yeah, no doubt, my comment is a bit less strong. 

Still, ultimately I prefer "best WR prospect in draft" rather than to "take a chance on another 'shoulda been a 1st' Mims type 5th, 6th, 7th type guy". 

JMO. 

[Warfish]

37 minutes ago, derp said:

NFL receiving yards leaders in order:

Cooper Kupp - third round

Justin Jefferson - drafted in 20's

Davante Adams - second round

Ja'Marr Chase - top 5 pick

Mark Andrews - third round

Tyreek Hill - fifth round

Stefon Diggs - fifth round

Tyler Lockett - third round

Dionte Johnson - third round

DJ Moore - drafted in 20's

Mike Williams - top 10 pick

Keenan Allen - third round

Travis Kelce - third round

Chris Godwin - third round

CeeDee Lamb - drafted mid first round

I notice I don't see Denzel Mims, ArDarius Stewart, Chad Hanson, Devin Smith, Jalen Saunders, Shaq Evans or Stephen Hill on that list.  

I get your point, "good WR can be found in the third/fourth round".

I hope you also understand that the odds of finding one in the third is very very low.  Your list of those folks did find is far, FAR smaller than those drafted in the 3rd as a population.

Other than Moore (a bright talent to be sure, but still a TDB after only one year with substantial time lost to injury), our own history of finding WR's later is exceedingly poor overall, and especially recently (last decade+).

Ultimately, I'd need a compelling reason not to draft the top prospect.  Offensive skill support for Wilson is my #1 need for this team.  Why would I defer that need for a lower (or much lower) rated prospect, in order to.....what?  Draft a Safety?  Or a Center?  Why am I passing on G. Wilson exactly, as one example?

[derp]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I notice I don't see Denzel Mims, ArDarius Stewart, Chad Hanson, Devin Smith, Jalen Saunders, Shaq Evans or Stephen Hill on that list.  

I get your point, "good WR can be found in the third/fourth round".

I hope you also understand that the odds of finding one in the third is very very low.  Your list of those folks did find is far, FAR smaller than those drafted in the 3rd as a population.

Other than Moore (a bright talent to be sure, but still a TDB after only one year with substantial time lost to injury), our own history of finding WR's later is exceedingly poor overall, and especially recently (last decade+).

Actually a big part of the point was that the odds of finding a star receiver in the first round aren’t that great. I don’t think the idea of drafting a guy at ten because it meaningfully improves your odds really holds up.

[JoJoTownsell1]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

Actually the point was that the odds of finding a star receiver in the first round aren’t that great. I don’t think the idea of drafting a guy at ten because it meaningfully improves your odds really holds up.

In last years draft you had Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman and Toney. Bateman looked really good when he returned from Injury and Waddle and Smith also looked really good. And toney showed flashes before he got hurt. 

The year before Ceedee Lamb/Justin Jefferson/Aiyuk went in the first also. Would love to have any of those 3. 

Sure you have busts in the 1st, but that's like any position. Also, rounds 2-7 always have a good chunk of good players because there is a pool of 200ish players taken in that range so of course you will find a good amount of pro bowlers in that range versus the 32 that go in the first.

[Warfish]

36 minutes ago, derp said:

And the point is twofold - one that plenty of star wide receivers are drafted outside the first round, and two that you’re not getting any certainty when you draft a wide receiver in the first round.

Looking at the last three drafts at every WR Drafted in the first round, I feel pretty good about the odds actually.  Some of the bad ones many of us knew were over-drafted (Ruggs comes to mind).

Most of these guys are successful, legit players in the league, some of the less successful are still very solid players. 

A >50% odds is pretty good in the NFL Draft.

For reference purposes, our best WR (Moore) and most successful non-first drafted WR in ages, in his first year had 538 yards and 5 TD and most of us think he's a stud in waiting....

2021 1st (1 Season):

Chase (5) - 1,400+ 13 TD
Waddle (6) - 1,000+, 6 TD
Smith (10) - 900+, 5 TD
Toney (20) - 400+, 0 TD
Bateman (27) - 500+, 1 TD
(Note Moore was 2nd to top pick of 2nd, we think doing very well)

2020 1st (2 Seasons):

Ruggs III (12) - 900+, 4 TD, note: Drunk Murdering Scumbag.
Jeudy (15) - 1,300+, 3 TD
Lamb (17) - 2,000+, 11 TD
Reagor (21) - 600+, 3 TD
Jefferson (22) - 3,000+, 17 TD
Aiyuk (25) - 1,500+, 10 TD
(Note Higgins and Pittman top 2 picks of 2nd, both doing very well)

2019 1st (3 Seasons):

Brown (25) - 2,300+, 21 TD
Harry (32) - 500+, 4 TD
 

[Warfish]

17 minutes ago, derp said:

Actually a big part of the point was that the odds of finding a star receiver in the first round aren’t that great. I don’t think the idea of drafting a guy at ten because it meaningfully improves your odds really holds up.

It's > 50% (see post above).

If you'd like to list out all the WR's picked in rounds 2, 3 and 4, and show us the odds for WR's selected in those rounds, have at it.  

I'll wager it's materially lower %, when the entire population is looked at, than WR's picked in the first.

[David Harris]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

Nah, day 2 is often a very good place to get wideouts.  Deebo, Metcalf, AJ Brown, Juju, Elijah Moore, Tee Higgins, Jarvis Landry, Mclaurin...

 

Point is you can absolutely get a very good wideout on Day 2.  Naturally, the hit ratio goes down for every position as you move down the draft but good receivers can be had on Day 2 for sure.  Less so on pass rushes, LT's and QB's.

 

And personally I am well off the Burks train for #10.  Garrett Wilson is the only guy I'd consider there currently, still waiting on Drake London.

[mrcoops]

37 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Ok, this may be an "Fish is too old-school for his own good" issue then, lol.

"Day 1" in my head is the old Saturday Draft guys, Rounds 1, 2 and I think 3?

"Day 2" guys are Sunday guys, the mid-late rounders.

I haven't quite aligned myself with the current (crappy IMO) Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday draftapalooza system.  

I suppose if by "Day 2" we're talking "2nd Round" then yeah, no doubt, my comment is a bit less strong. 

Still, ultimately I prefer "best WR prospect in draft" rather than to "take a chance on another 'shoulda been a 1st' Mims type 5th, 6th, 7th type guy". 

JMO. 

Ah, I see. Easy mistake to make. Yes, the new draft system does indeed suck. The old two day format was so much better.

I'd like a 1st round receiver too, particularly Wilson, but I do think there are some nice prospects who will be there in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If we don't get a 1st round guy, prospects like Dotson etc might be there in the early 2nd.

[derp]

1 minute ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

In last years draft you had Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman and Toney. Bateman looked really good when he returned from Injury and Waddle and Smith also looked really good. And toney showed flashes before he got hurt. 

The year before Ceedee Lamb/Justin Jefferson/Aiyuk went in the first also. Would love to have any of those 3. 

Sure you have busts in the 1st, but that's like any position. Also, rounds 2-7 always have a good chunk of good players because there is a pool of 200ish players taken in that range so of course you will find a good amount of pro bowlers in that range versus the 32 that go in the first.

Both of those WR drafts were pretty clearly better than this year’s. Any of the first three WR’s drafted last year would be the first guy drafted this year without question, and if they were in this draft it’s a different conversation.

In a draft closer to this one Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross went in the top ten. Or 2013 which gets compared to this draft a ton had Tavon Austin go in the top ten. Then 2014 had Amari Cooper and Kevin White.

I’m not trying to say you explicitly don’t draft WR’s that high, but it’s a mixed bag like any other position.

If teams want certainty at WR the veteran trade market has been the way to go. The draft you can have hits but also plenty of misses. And the teams that draft the best (Green Bay, Pittsburgh) do it on day two in volume.

[JoJoTownsell1]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

I think you forgot that the 2nd round is day 2. Unless you think picks 35 and 38 are drastically different than late first rounders.

Picks 33-41 the last two years have included Jonathan Taylor, Elijah Moore, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Javonte Williams and Deandre Swift. And that's just offensive playmakers. 

[Warfish]

8 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Nah, day 2 is often a very good place to get wideouts.  Deebo, Metcalf, AJ Brown, Juju, Elijah Moore, Tee Higgins, Jarvis Landry, Mclaurin...

Cool, now list all the other day 2 guys who aren't those guys.

8 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Naturally, the hit ratio goes down for every position as you move down the draft

We cannot afford lower odds.  Not now, not with Wilson.

8 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Garrett Wilson is the only guy I'd consider there currently, still waiting on Drake London.

I'm a Wilson guy and remain so, at pick #10.

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I think you forgot that the 2nd round is day 2.......

See the subsequent post on that please. ?

[Guilhermezmc]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

With the 38th pick in the NFL draft the New York Jets select Tyler “T-Rex” Linderbaum, Center, Iowa

Don't tease me like that

[Marshmello]

Another Versatile OL. 

 

 

[Guilhermezmc]

Watch out for Jermaine Johnson, really like the way he plays, senior bowl was huge for him combine will help him consolidate his spot in the first round

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

I think this post is incredibly misguided. "Day 2" is the 2-3 rounds. That is where the most of top NFL WRs come from.

There are the same number of "Day 2" WRs on PFFs Top 25 WRs of 2021 list as their are first rounders. Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman -- this is without even including guys like Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown etc. that went later.

WR is notably NOT a position that needs to be taken early. Smart orgs find them on Day 2 all the time.