It's Combine Week

[derp]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Looking at the last three drafts at every WR Drafted in the first round, I feel pretty good about the odds actually.  Some of the bad ones many of us knew were over-drafted (Ruggs comes to mind).

Most of these guys are successful, legit players in the league, some of the less successful are still very solid players. 

A >50% odds is pretty good in the NFL Draft.

For reference purposes, our best WR (Moore) and most successful non-first drafted WR in ages, in his first year had 538 yards and 5 TD and most of us think he's a stud in waiting....

2021 1st (1 Season):

Chase (5) - 1,400+ 13 TD
Waddle (6) - 1,000+, 6 TD
Smith (10) - 900+, 5 TD
Toney (20) - 400+, 0 TD
Bateman (27) - 500+, 1 TD
(Note Moore was 2nd to top pick of 2nd, we think doing very well)

2020 1st (2 Seasons):

Ruggs III (12) - 900+, 4 TD, note: Drunk Murdering Scumbag.
Jeudy (15) - 1,300+, 3 TD
Lamb (17) - 2,000+, 11 TD
Reagor (21) - 600+, 3 TD
Jefferson (22) - 3,000+, 17 TD
Aiyuk (25) - 1,500+, 10 TD
(Note Higgins and Pittman top 2 picks of 2nd, both doing very well)

2019 1st (3 Seasons):

Brown (25) - 2,300+, 21 TD
Harry (32) - 500+, 4 TD
 

So, for starters - I’m not entirely against wide receivers. If Chase and Pitts were in this class and the Jets had the first pick the question would be which of them they take with that selection. Smith would be a layup at 10. I’d take Lamb at 10 too and I loved Justin Jefferson (I’m sure there are posts from that draft season) and would absolutely take him at 10 this year. None of the guys in this class are even close to Jefferson as a prospect in my opinion. You’re looking at the hit rate of back to back years that were really good wide receiver classes, it’s not apples to apples with this class. Needs to be a bigger sample to be representative.

And we’re talking about guys who’d make a meaningful difference for Wilson this year, right? I would not include a good chunk of your hits as hits, for a top ten selection and a QB who needs immediate help. Jeudy, Aiyuk, Brown I don’t think would make a meaningful difference on this team, at least not relative to a mid-level FA the Jets could add pretty easily - while being more confident in what they’re getting.

You also hint at that early second round range, where the Jets have two picks this year. In this class I think that’s a much more palatable place to take a guy from a roster construction standpoint.

I guess that’s the point. If you want to be confident you’re getting a capable player, forget second day versus top ten - it needs to be a veteran. And if you want to use the draft capital effectively the second day is a good mix of risk-reward in my opinion. So are the 20’s. This class, top ten, meh.

[JustInFudge]

53 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I notice I don't see Denzel Mims, ArDarius Stewart, Chad Hanson, Devin Smith, Jalen Saunders, Shaq Evans or Stephen Hill on that list.  

I get your point, "good WR can be found in the third/fourth round".

I hope you also understand that the odds of finding one in the third is very very low.  Your list of those folks did find is far, FAR smaller than those drafted in the 3rd as a population.

Other than Moore (a bright talent to be sure, but still a TDB after only one year with substantial time lost to injury), our own history of finding WR's later is exceedingly poor overall, and especially recently (last decade+).

Ultimately, I'd need a compelling reason not to draft the top prospect.  Offensive skill support for Wilson is my #1 need for this team.  Why would I defer that need for a lower (or much lower) rated prospect, in order to.....what?  Draft a Safety?  Or a Center?  Why am I passing on G. Wilson exactly, as one example?

I’d have to find the article/s but very consistently the data says WR actually has the 2nd or 3rd highest bust rate in the 1st round behind QB.  And the success rate for round 1 vs 2 is only like a difference of 6% in favor of round 1.  Very little difference and the smallest gap of any position.  And then there are some weird stats like 5th round hits more than 4th and so on, highest late round hit % of any position too.  It’s actually one of the riskiest picks to make of all positions and the data plays out it is one of the highest hit rates later in the draft behind I think RB.

I will find a few relevant articles and let me preface, it wouldn’t deter me for taking one, just sharing what I’ve read.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Just now, JiFapono said:

I’d have to find the article/a but very consistently the data says WR actually has the 2nd or 3rd highest bust rate in the 1st round behind QB.  And the success rate for round 1 vs 2 is only like a difference of 6% in favor of round 1.  Very little difference and the smallest gap of any position.  And then there are some weird stats like 5th round hits more than 4th and so on, highest late round hit % of any position too.  It’s actually one of the riskiest picks to make of all positions and the data plays out it is one of the highest hit rates later in the draft behind I think RB.

I will find a few relevant articles 

You following this year's draft at all? Curious about your thoughts if you had any.

[David Harris]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Cool, now list all the other day 2 guys who aren't those guys.

We cannot afford lower odds.  Not now, not with Wilson.

I'm a Wilson guy and remain so, at pick #10.

Do your own homework

I think it will be a moot point in 2 weeks.  There’s no excuse not to get a very good wideout in free agency. JD is coiled with assets for this moment.

[JustInFudge]

@Warfish

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft.amp.html

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/2/

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad

[Warfish]

17 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I think this post is incredibly misguided. "Day 2" is the 2-3 rounds.

I appreciate that most folks hit reply as soon as they hit a post worth replying to, but again, please see my subsequent post on this specific issue.

17 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Smart orgs find them on Day 2 all the time.

We're not a smart org.

[Warfish]

13 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Do your own homework

I think it will be a moot point in 2 weeks.  There’s no excuse not to get a very good wideout in free agency. JD is coiled with assets for this moment.

Don't need to, I already know the odds in rounds 2, 3, and 4 are worse than in round 1 for WR's.

If you're holding your breath for a legit #1 WR in FA.....I fear you're going to be very disappointed. 

But I hope you're right and I'm wrong.  But I'm rarely wrong (just go back and look at posts about Davis last offseason, lol).

[BeaconJet]

10 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

@Warfish

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft.amp.html

https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/2/

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad

Interesting first link...  so 1st round WRs have historically one of the highest "bust" rates.   And damn, never take a RB in the 1st apparently... they're almost a coin flip to "bust".

SO... if you're coming in thinking with pick 4 and 10 you need to hit on those picks, and maximize your chances of hitting on "sure things" - then history and the data shows go OL, LB, DL, CB... even S and TE. 

As for the Jets being a smart or dumb organization, we have only 2 drafts worth of data for JD ... one good, one bad... so really remains to be seen what the reality is.

[JustInFudge]

13 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

You following this year's draft at all? Curious about your thoughts if you had any.

I am just more quite about it.  Maybe it’s not as heated this year but the behavior of many posters on this site regarding the draft last year turned me off big time and I haven’t given my usual effort of sharing thoughts.  I haven’t even done my yearly Gators prospect thread.  JN ruined the draft for me.  Haha.  I’m finding myself getting more intrigued as it approaches and I’m doing some research here and there but I think the combo of JN ruining the draft, the drafting ruining itself, and the timing of the Jets having all this capital during a sh*tty draft has me just a little less engaged, for now. 

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I appreciate that most folks hit reply as soon as they hit a post worth replying to, but again, please see my subsequent post on this specific issue.

Yeah, I've seen all the back and forth. I think you're pretty clearly wrong.

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

We're not a smart org.

I don't see why that changes anything. If we just operate under the assumption that JD will suck because we've sucked for 10+ years why bother even trying.

The point is that WR is not a position where you need to spend first round picks to get difference makers. If you compared first round offensive tackles or DL with later picks, for instance, you'd see that the bulk of the elite talent goes early. It's harder to find studs in later rounds. It's just not true at all for the WR position. Some of the absolute best players in the league come from later and the bust rate in the first is incredibly high.

[Snell41]

After his rookie season Becton was tagged with the injury prone label. So by rights Moore is even more so because he played less games. That's the standard that was set on this forum ?‍♂️

That’s not true. Becton was tagged with the lazy label when he was reportedly out of shape and then getting his ass kicked all during TC by Lawson. He got the injury tag when he decided to take his entire sophomore season from a 6-8 week injury.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[section314]

7 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I am just more quite about it.  Maybe it’s not as heated this year but the behavior of many posters on this site regarding the draft last year turned me off big time and I haven’t given my usual effort of sharing thoughts.  I haven’t even done my yearly Gators prospect thread.  JN ruined the draft for me.  Haha.  I’m finding myself getting more intrigued as it approaches and I’m doing some research here and there but I think the combo of JN ruining the draft, the drafting ruining itself, and the timing of the Jets having all this capital during a sh*tty draft has me just a little less engaged, for now. 

Plz tell me you are still doing our JN Mock.?

[Rhg1084]

 

[Lith]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

For what, depth guys?

The odds we're getting any kind of starter-quality WR on day 2 is near nil.

Yes, it can happen, rarely, that some mid-late rounder is great.  We're not that team and JD is not that kind of GM.

This feels like the Gandy-Golden thing again, the "must have day 2" WR's that generally, like Gandy-Golden, amount to nothing at the NFL level.

Wilson needs serious material help.  You take the best possible guy you can, you don't wait till day 2 and long-odds mid-rounders to get him help.

JMO.  And all depends on FA, but I continue to caution we're not going to get a top-elite WR in FA.  We're just not.

EDIT:  Oh, I see, you like Amari Cooper as a FA.  Best of luck on that.

Saying day 2, I am really referring to picks 35 & 38.  I don't think this is a great WR class at the top.  If I thought there was a Jamarr Chase or Justin Jefferson in this draft, then grab him at 4.  But I do not see elite playmakers at that level.  Reaching for a guy is how you pikc Kevin White or Tavon Autin or Corey Davis in the top 10.

I like WIlson and would be happy with him at 10, beyond that, I think there are very good options at 35 or 38 that are comparable to the other first rounders: Pickens, Dotson, Olave come to mind.

If we get past 38 and have not added a WR, I will consider it a failure, barring a major splash in trade or FA.. 

 

[Warfish]

21 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Yeah, I've seen all the back and forth. I think you're pretty clearly wrong.

On the issue of what "Day 2" means these days I already said I was clearly wrong and why I was wrong. 

Your pointing it out after that is unnecessary, especially if you've "read all the back and forth".

Quote

I don't see why that changes anything. If we just operate under the assumption that JD will suck because we've sucked for 10+ years why bother even trying.

Ignoring who our franchise and GM is is silly.  You're not making the picks, JD is.

Quote

The point is that WR is not a position where you need to spend first round picks to get difference makers.

Ok.  Guess we'll see. 

If we're here in a few years, yet again talking about yet another Stephen Hill/Denzel Mims that guys just like you thought was so much smarter than those silly higher-tier prospects, we'll know who was right.

Quote

It's just not true at all for the WR position. Some of the absolute best players in the league come from later and the bust rate in the first is incredibly high.

Great, we'll see what happens.  History for this franchise is clearly on my side.  

[Joe W. Namath]

Are rbs going today?  Im really interested in what Isaiah Spiller.  Hes the guy I believe we are targeting at 38 if he puts up great numbers today.

[Jethead]

41 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Don't need to, I already know the odds in rounds 2, 3, and 4 are worse than in round 1 for WR's.

If you're holding your breath for a legit #1 WR in FA.....I fear you're going to be very disappointed. 

But I hope you're right and I'm wrong.  But I'm rarely wrong (just go back and look at posts about Davis last offseason, lol).

I'm good with Wilson at #10 if you also let me have Cooper in a trade w/ Dallas. Cooper, Moore, Davis, Wilson & Berrios would be a decent WR room.

Psst... Patrick Ramsey, but never wrong.

[UntouchableCrew]

20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

On the issue of what "Day 2" means these days I already said I was clearly wrong and why I was wrong. 

Your pointing it out after that is unnecessary, especially if you've "read all the back and forth".

Must have missed that one -- I've literally never seen you admit you're wrong so I would have made a note of it.

20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Ignoring who our franchise and GM is is silly.  You're not making the picks, JD is.

Yep, and it looks like right now he's 1 for 2 on Day 2 WRs, although the book has not been fully written on Mims or Moore yet. Just pointing out that any history beyond that is irrelevant and fans bemoaning longer term bad decision making aren't making good points.

20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Ok.  Guess we'll see. 

If we're here in a few years, yet again talking about yet another Stephen Hill/Denzel Mims that guys just like you thought was so much smarter than those silly higher-tier prospects, we'll know who was right.

LOL guys like me.

20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Great, we'll see what happens.  History for this franchise is clearly on my side.  

I mean, there's not much history of this franchise spending first round picks on WRs so no, it isn't.

We can all say "sh*tty franchise will likely continue to suck" -- not exactly a bold prognostication here. Based on Wilson's first year the most likely scenario is that JD and Saleh will be looking for new jobs in three years no matter who they draft.

I'm not even against spending a first on a WR. At all. I'd strongly consider London or Wilson at 10. You just went hard declaring that we NEED to spend a first to get a difference maker at WR and waiting will be a failure and a ton of people came down on you because it was a terrible take.

[GreenFish]

A bit disappointed more WRs didn't run the agility drills. Christian Watson looked fluid in his receiving drill. Would have been nice to put numbers to his change of direction though.

Kind of uncomfortable with this receiving group.

[Warfish]

30 minutes ago, Jethead said:

I'm good with Wilson at #10 if you also let me have Cooper in a trade w/ Dallas. Cooper, Moore, Davis, Wilson & Berrios would be a decent WR room.

Psst... Patrick Ramsey, but never wrong.

Lol, Patrick Ramsey was 14 years ago.  

So yeah, pretty much not often wrong, 

Of course "being a pessimist" and "not being wrong" tend to go hand in hand as Jets Fan, lol.

[BeaconJet]

53 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Are rbs going today?  Im really interested in what Isaiah Spiller.  Hes the guy I believe we are targeting at 38 if he puts up great numbers today.

RBs are going today, along with OL, K and P

DL and LB tomorrow, and DBs on Sunday.

[Warfish]

24 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Must have missed that one -- I've literally never seen you admit you're wrong so I would have made a note of it.

Really?  I admit I'm wrong all the time.  Hell, I freely admit I could be wrong on this very subject (substantively speaking).

24 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Yep, and it looks like right now he's 1 for 2 on Day 2 WRs, although the book has not been fully written on Mims or Moore yet. Just pointing out that any history beyond that is irrelevant and fans bemoaning longer term bad decision making aren't making good points.

Fair point.  

I would maintain my core argument:  Wilson needing WR help is our top need IMO.  As such, I don't wait, I don't hope to beat later round odds, I don't think I'm smarter that everyone else:  I get the top prospect, who will likely be available to us at #10.

If JD gets a top #1 in FA, that changes the meta, and this argument becomes moot, just to be clear.

24 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'm not even against spending a first on a WR. At all. I'd strongly consider London or Wilson at 10. You just went hard declaring that we NEED to spend a first to get a difference maker at WR and waiting will be a failure and a ton of people came down on you because it was a terrible take.

IMO it is a need.  Tied or akin to an Edge.

There is nothing this team needs more than more weapons for Wilson.

Not LB.  Not Safety (lol).  Not CB.  Not RB.  Not DT. 

And (rare for me to ever say) Not O-line (we should take some O-line later for depth protection).

So yes, in my view, WR is absolutely a must-do in round 1, likely at pick #10.  

Again, all changes if JD signs D. Adams, lol, but lets try and be reasonable about what the odds of that really is.

[JohnnyLV]

14 hours ago, sirlancemehlot said:

Hands catcher, awesome YAC, tracks ball in the air, gets wide open, fights for contested balls, off the charts athletically.

He could be a 3rd round steal.

At this point he is closer to "first round lock" than 3rd round steal. Outside chance he is there at our first 2nd RD pick spot.

[Beerfish]

Dougals's sin in the mims draft was not drafting another Wr later on in a deep wr draft.  You increase your odds of success in two ways. picking guys higher or simply picking more players.

Darnell Mooney had 81 catches and over 1000 yards

Gabriel Davis had 4 tds in a playoff game

[UntouchableCrew]

28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Really?  I admit I'm wrong all the time.  Hell, I freely admit I could be wrong on this very subject (substantively speaking).

Fair point.  

I would maintain my core argument:  Wilson needing WR help is our top need IMO.  As such, I don't wait, I don't hope to beat later round odds, I don't think I'm smarter that everyone else:  I get the top prospect, who will likely be available to us at #10.

If JD gets a top #1 in FA, that changes the meta, and this argument becomes moot, just to be clear.

IMO it is a need.  Tied or akin to an Edge.

There is nothing this team needs more than more weapons for Wilson.

Not LB.  Not Safety (lol).  Not CB.  Not RB.  Not DT. 

And (rare for me to ever say) Not O-line (we should take some O-line later for depth protection).

So yes, in my view, WR is absolutely a must-do in round 1, likely at pick #10.  

Again, all changes if JD signs D. Adams, lol, but lets try and be reasonable about what the odds of that really is.

Okay, I don't think we disagree on any of this.

I just think based on how this draft is likely to play out with two 2nd rounders we could potentially add a similar WR at 35 or 38 that we could at 10 and given the really high end players seem to be on defense I can understand wanting to use the first two picks there.

[BeaconJet]

1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Are rbs going today?  Im really interested in what Isaiah Spiller.  Hes the guy I believe we are targeting at 38 if he puts up great numbers today.

 

 

The Draft Network

@TheDraftNetwork

 

Isaiah Spiller

6'0"

217 pounds

31 3/4" arms

8 5/8" hands

[Beerfish]

I'll look at RBs 4th and 5th round but not before for the jets.  RB value is just not there, short career, big supply of players.

[Beerfish]

Our man Logan Bruss with a 5.33 Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[kdels62]

Charles Cross underrated. He ran a sub-5 40 at 307 lbs. 

 

[kdels62]

Kellen Diesch’s tape isn’t great but that sub-5 40 will play

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, JiFapono said:

JN ruined the draft for me.

Name naaaames

[kdels62]

Cam Jurgens has my attention. 
 

Abraham Lucas making money today.

[kdels62]

Linderbaum might be too much of an outlier for GMs to risk using first round picks on him.

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

At this point he is closer to "first round lock" than 3rd round steal. Outside chance he is there at our first 2nd RD pick spot.

I disagree and hope you are wrong. I want him in the third. No way at this point he gets taken day 1. U r literally the only guy saying this

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Ekwonu is the biggest lock at 4 I’ve ever seen.
Unless Thibs or Hutchinson are there, this is the pick. Start discussing 10.