Jump to content

Beware of the Ides of March


kevinc855
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

They did give it a try with the 89% minimum spend rule, but that's also so easy to get around by front-loading the newest contracts so multiple players - whether new FAs or current player extensions - have an extra $10-20MM or more sneak into that window in y4.

Even if there was unanimous willingness to change it (i.e. "I'll do it only if everyone else does") it's hard to get around. The only alternative is setting a hard cap, but there are negative consequences to that, too: that'd make the team to spend really high in a year when it'd force them to lock into some bad players. There's probably some other negative, unintended consequences along those lines, too. But I agree with you in spirit. 

I'd have to model it out, but I believe that a combination of the following would help (values TBD):

  • Limit the total cap savings you can get through restructuring contracts each year as a % of total cap
  • Set a hard cap at X% over the actual cap so you can't spend unlimited cash in a single year to pull bonuses in.

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Lith said:

I am really growing to hate free agency.  Everything about FA is counter to the league's goal of parity.  It happens every year.  We get all excited over the cap space and the players that are available.  And every year, we watch as guys use the Jets to leverage a better deal from the contender they want to play for.  And then we get all the "I can't beleive we didn't sign him for that contract" threads.  As if we had a realistic chance at the guy.  For FA, the player is the decision maker, not the team.

We are at a competitive disadvantage in free agency.  We have to pay a Jets premium to entice players to come here.  And we also have to pay a NJ State Income Tax premium.  And when we pay that premium, it usually does not work out and we can't wait to cut the guy to free up cap space.  Bell, Tru, Revis (part II).  Corey Davis is trending that way, although it is too early to draw conclusion, but year 1 was disappointing.  Even though CJ Mosley played well this past season, it is hard to say he is worth the contract.

Best FA signings we have had in recent years have been the low key signings.  Fant, Moses, Crowder, etc.

This sounds like an Incel rant. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

March is here. 

Combine this week

More importantly free agency begins March 16.

How will this team look by April 1st? Who will be our early FA acquisitions or will sleepy Joe stay pat with the usual plug and play guys. Let me know your opinions 

 

5 hours ago, Jets Things said:

The "of" in the title is extraneous and not part of the original quote from Julius Caesar. Interestingly enough, the character who warns Caesar is the Soothsayer. 

Guess you missed the part that the ides of March is a day, not a month, technically marked as a full moon, but recognized as March 15th. 

So its basically beware March 15th. 

I should know, it's my birthday. 

You can consider me an expert on this topic. 

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Your showing your age

The average 20 something year old millionaire doesn’t give a sh*t about their income tax bracket, but do care about being in the largest media market of the greatest city of the world. 
 

or they could live in I don’t know…..Indianapolis? yawn 

NYC is the greatest city in the world? I'd say it's an understatement that everyone doesn't agree. Maybe it's a draw to some, but there are a whole lot of players who don't love it here, who aren't from anywhere near here, and certainly they wouldn't agree. Lots of these players are small town guys from the sticks who couldn't care less about living in/around NYC; they can come up here for a trip in their long offseason, and it's not like years ago when they'd get like 3 snowy channels on TV if they lived in the middle of nowhere.

Also the better FAs aren't "average" millionaires. These are guys - technically college guys - in line for tens of millions in a very short span of time. If they choose one team over another because one is offering more money, the tax rate isn't effectively any different. Unless the insinuation is that all or almost all of the best & highest-paid NFL players are just too stupid to understand how income tax works, despite paying it for the entirety of their current/expiring contract. 

Imagine a contract for a really good/great FA at 5 years $100MM, with $60MM guaranteed over the first 3 years. Half that guarantee in bonus, half in salary, over those first 3 seasons. He pays the team's state tax rate fully for the bonus checks, and for the home games on the salary, or $45MM total just over the first 3 contract years. 

In NY (or do Jets players pay NJ taxes? I honestly don't know) it's 10-11% on the marginal tier. But this player would be so far over, that's still >90% of it. Call it 10% just to make the math easy; it won't materially change the point: ~$4.5MM over the first 3 contract years. 

  • That'd be literally zero - a cash savings of $4.5MM - if they got the identical contract from Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Houston, Dallas, Seattle, Vegas, or Tennessee
  • It'd be less than half that - still saving $2.5MM or more - in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Indy, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago, Denver, Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, or New England
  • It'd be just over half - still a ~$2MM cash savings - in New Orleans, KC, Balt, or Atlanta.

So at/around this level contract - and a number of players get deals for more than this, too - means just over the first 3 seasons the same contract is actually millions less in the players' pockets to sign here instead of 23 other teams. 

Teams where there's <$2MM in disparity for this player? GB, SF, LAC, LAR, NYJ, NYG, Buf, Min, and WFT. The players have to really want to be in that city or really want to play for that team; otherwise where there are multiple suitors these teams in high tax states have to outbid everyone by millions; like a Jets tax, as @nycdan put it.

There are other things at play, too, like the likelihood of seeing more than just the guaranteed portion, but players (and definitely their agents) know the only guaranteed part is the guaranteed part. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

This is living in the past thinking.  A huge problem with this fanbase.  You think this franchise is thought of the same under douglas/saleh as it was under mccagnan/gase?

We are now a prime destination any player would be extremely lucky to play for.

Jet fans r so used to losing they are scared of becoming good.

This franchise has turned the corner and is about to embark on the best stretch of football in franchise history.

Embrace it and stop fighting it.  It is happening!!!’

 

What the fanbase thinks means nothing.  When we start seeing FA's pick the Jets for equal money vs other teams, and not having to overpay, then fans will believe it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I'd have to model it out, but I believe that a combination of the following would help (values TBD):

  • Limit the total cap savings you can get through restructuring contracts each year as a % of total cap
  • Set a hard cap at X% over the actual cap so you can't spend unlimited cash in a single year to pull bonuses in.

 

Yeah, I don't know how they get around the built-in advantages because of home states. If it was as easy as the team paying the league, and then the league cutting a check to every player - and coach - from/to/within the same state, that would've been floated by now. e.g. pick up your bonus check before the season by flying to the league head office, and then fly there after the season to pick up game checks. That might work for the highest-paid guys with guaranteed contracts, who aren't hand-to-mouth; but not for practice squad and roster bubble guys, nor those who are added after week 1 whose contracts aren't guaranteed for that season.

I think limiting how much can carry over also would help, or satisfying the 89% rule getting assessed every 2 years (or every 3) instead of every 4. So many players have big contracts structured with lump sums that may seem small in between, that there may be unintended consequences there. 

It's not all on the owners, though. The other way would be doing away with signing bonuses that get amortized equally over the length of the contract -- particularly over years everyone knows the player's not seeing. The players wouldn't like that too much, though. But it's an option, and they still get the money as guarantees; just not up front in lump sums anymore unless the team has just that much cap space (and isn't worried about the player dogging it or holding out in a down-salary year that follows).

And they have to get rid of the voidable year loophole, where a contract can be amortized over a 5th year when the contract automatically voids after year 4 (or 2). Someone needs to explain to me how that one ever came about. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

NYC is the greatest city in the world? I'd say it's an understatement that everyone doesn't agree. Maybe it's a draw to some, but there are a whole lot of players who don't love it here, who aren't from anywhere near here, and certainly they wouldn't agree. Lots of these players are small town guys from the sticks who couldn't care less about living in/around NYC; they can come up here for a trip in their long offseason, and it's not like years ago when they'd get like 3 snowy channels on TV if they lived in the middle of nowhere.

Also the better FAs aren't "average" millionaires. These are guys - technically college guys - in line for tens of millions in a very short span of time. If they choose one team over another because one is offering more money, the tax rate isn't effectively any different. Unless the insinuation is that all or almost all of the best & highest-paid NFL players are just too stupid to understand how income tax works, despite paying it for the entirety of their current/expiring contract. 

Imagine a contract for a really good/great FA at 5 years $100MM, with $60MM guaranteed over the first 3 years. Half that guarantee in bonus, half in salary, over those first 3 seasons. He pays the team's state tax rate fully for the bonus checks, and for the home games on the salary, or $45MM total just over the first 3 contract years. 

In NY (or do Jets players pay NJ taxes? I honestly don't know) it's 10-11% on the marginal tier. But this player would be so far over, that's still >90% of it. Call it 10% just to make the math easy; it won't materially change the point: ~$4.5MM over the first 3 contract years. 

  • That'd be literally zero - a cash savings of $4.5MM - if they got the identical contract from Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Houston, Dallas, Seattle, Vegas, or Tennessee
  • It'd be less than half that - still saving $2.5MM or more - in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Indy, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago, Denver, Arizona, Carolina, Detroit, or New England
  • It'd be just over half - still a ~$2MM cash savings - in New Orleans, KC, Balt, or Atlanta.

So at/around this level contract - and a number of players get deals for more than this, too - means just over the first 3 seasons the same contract is actually millions less in the players' pockets to sign here instead of 23 other teams. 

Teams where there's <$2MM in disparity for this player? GB, SF, LAC, LAR, NYJ, NYG, Buf, Min, and WFT. The players have to really want to be in that city or really want to play for that team; otherwise where there are multiple suitors these teams in high tax states have to outbid everyone by millions; like a Jets tax, as @nycdan put it.

There are other things at play, too, like the likelihood of seeing more than just the guaranteed portion, but players (and definitely their agents) know the only guaranteed part is the guaranteed part. 

FWIW, players pay taxes based on where they play games.

So in reality, the 'tax' on players is really about half of the state's income tax because they play 8 road games which should even out across all teams/players over a season.  In fact, since one of MIA's road games is in NJ while one of NYJ's in in FL, it's slightly more than evened out.  But ultimately, call it 5% surcharge for playing in NJ and it's close enough.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, nycdan said:

FWIW, players pay taxes based on where they play games.

So in reality, the 'tax' on players is really about half of the state's income tax because they play 8 road games which should even out across all teams/players over a season.  In fact, since one of MIA's road games is in NJ while one of NYJ's in in FL, it's slightly more than evened out.  But ultimately, call it 5% surcharge for playing in NJ and it's close enough.

Yep I said that. That's why I counted only the home games for game checks/salaries. But the signing & roster & other bonuses are paid in the team's state (or I'm presuming that they do). 

39 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He pays the team's state tax rate fully for the bonus checks, and for the home games on the salary, or $45MM total just over the first 3 contract years. 

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, JTJet said:

 

Guess you missed the part that the ides of March is a day, not a month, technically marked as a full moon, but recognized as March 15th. 

So its basically beware March 15th. 

I should know, it's my birthday. 

You can consider me an expert on this topic. 

I'm well aware that it doesn't refer to a month. In fact, the "ides" of most months is the 15th (or the 13th in some cases), not just March. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Even Patty Hearst would be disgusted by a six win season next year. But Jets fans? They see progress.

Remember that movie The Book of Eli? It's so old that it's on Turner Classic Movies now. And that came out the same month that was also the last time the Jets were in a playoff game.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, T0mShane said:

—Grotesque overpay for Scherff. Sign Jessie Bates and a few Niners castoffs like Jaquiski Tartt and Raheem Mostert. 
 

—Amari Cooper and JC Jackson are the two free agents they’ll be “highly interested in” but don’t come close to getting because they spent all the money on Scherff

—Trade picks and/or Becton to conscript some poor, doomed WR whose career will then effectively end. 
 

—Desperately try and fail to trade up in the draft for Aidan Hutchinson, who is Robert Saleh’s gritty dream pick/only guy in the top ten he has a chance of developing. 
 

—End up drafting Kyle Hamilton and Trevor Penning. Uses the words “football character” about 56,000 times in the subsequent two days.

—Draft two nose tackles in first five rounds.

this would be grosser than usual

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Your showing your age

The average 20 something year old millionaire doesn’t give a sh*t about their income tax bracket, but do care about being in the largest media market of the greatest city of the world. 
 

or they could live in I don’t know…..Indianapolis? yawn 

We've literally heard players say it. I think Thibodeaux even mentioned it in an interview a few weeks ago and he's a baby. If they're onto their second contract, they are not an average 20 something and DEFINITELY care about taxes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

March is here. 
 

Combine this week

More importantly free agency begins March 16.

How will this team look by April 1st? Who will be our early FA acquisitions or will sleepy Joe stay pat with the usual plug and play guys. Let me know your opinions 

JD first signing will be Sam Ficken

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

It’s their 4th year and they won 4 games last season. 

Good Lord man we went through this last year with multiple posters saying he has been here 3 years now it’s four years.

12 months = 1 year

Joe Douglas was hired in June of 2019

The math will tell you that he hasn’t been here 3 years  let alone 4 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, nycdan said:

Every single signing of more than $3M/year that first week will result in a deluge of angry posts about why JD doesn't know what he's doing and Woody references to the Scrooge McDuck image.  I'm going to be merging threads like a boss :)

 

Oh yeah it’s unreal. Someone on here will create a thread bashing Joe D when Davante Adams signs elsewhere 😂😂 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share



×
×
  • Create New...