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What WILL happen? What SHOULD happen? RE: KAYVON THIBODEAUX and the 4th pick


KAYVON THIBODEAUX at 4  

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  1. 1. What WILL happen?

    • 1) I think he'll go in the top 3 and the Jets won't have a shot at him.
      39
    • 2) I think he'll be available at 3 and the Jets will draft him.
      23
    • 3) I think he'll be available at 3 and the Jets will pass on him
      27
  2. 2. What SHOULD happen?

    • 1) Jets should take him if available, he's a super high end prospect at a position of need. We'd be lucky he fell into our laps at 4.
      64
    • 2) I'd pass, production is shaky for such a big name, seems like a diva, we have bigger needs
      25


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I'm curious what JN is thinking about this right now.

4th overall you want a premium position -- and edge rusher is both a premium position and one we've needed to address since we traded John Abraham. The consensus top two edge rushers in this draft are Aiden Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibedeoux. They're not Myles Garrett/Chase Young/Bosa level prospects, but every good. Virtually nobody has Hutchinson lasting until 3.

Thibedeoux was the number two prospect in the nation coming out of HS, below are his accolades.

 

Career Stats

STATS
2021
2020
2019
TOT SOLO AST SACK FF FR YDS INT YDS AVG TD LNG PD STF STFYDS KB
49 35 14 7 2 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0 0 0
38 23 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 3 0 0 0
35 24 11 9 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 3 0 0 0

Assuming a good combine...

First. What WILL happen? Not what you want but what you think will play out.

1) I think he'll go in the top 3 and the Jets won't have a shot at him.

2) I think he'll be available at 3 and the Jets will draft him.

3) I think he'll be available at 3 and the Jets will pass on him due to character concerns (outspoken diva type)

What SHOULD happen? This is your opinion

1) Jets should take him if available, he's a super high end prospect at a position of need. We'd be lucky he fell into our laps at 4.

2) I'd pass, production is shaky for such a big name, lots of quality edge rushers in this draft, seems like a diva

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3 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I read this on this board so don't know the original source.  I read he takes plays off like Wilk did. The thing about great pass rushers that all of them have is they are relentless.  If this guy is not going after the QB like his hair is on fire every play, then it's a hard pass from me. 

Some teams game of disinfomation is clearly working.

Nobody heard this sh*t until after the season.

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11 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I think, based on what I've seen, he's still the pick.  In other drafts, maybe not, but in the draft where you're seriously talking about adding an interior OL or a safety at top 10 slots, and there's no QB to help with a trade out, I'll take the risk on the pass rusher.

This team desperately needs playmakers, so I'm still okay with the gamble vs. adding a safety that we're just going to let go in a couple of years because we don't want to pay him 17M per.

I agree... I also feel like even if he's "inconsistent" or "a little disappointing" he'd probably still be our best edge rusher since Abraham. His "bust" potential feels low to me.

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If he is there, then take him and go DB at 10.

 

I dont think he will be.  Jags and Texans are complete question marks.  Lions have to go Hutchinson, if just for ticket sales.

 

We are at the point of such over saturation in mock draft articles that it is all pretty much spin, disinformation and click bait., so who knows.

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37 minutes ago, Larz said:

He gonna drop like a rock 

I have to think this way as well. 

I just don't see anything great about this player.  At least in the highlights that are posted about him on youtube.

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2 hours ago, JTJet said:

Some teams game of disinfomation is clearly working.

Nobody heard this sh*t until after the season.

There is definitely disinformation spread, but you aren't hearing that about Hutchinson. And I have seen analysts, not linked to teams, say they have reviewed tape and it's pretty clear he doesn't go 100pct on every play. 

I wouldn't want to be the one to pass on him and watch him turn into Von Miller, because those skills are elite. But I also understand why some teams would rather not draft a guy at 4 who has a questionable motor. 

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2 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Why do I keep thinking of Dion Jordan when I see Thibodeoux? I'd rather go with Jermaine Johnson at #10.

Because they both went to Oregon, both had elite edge rushing skills, both about 6"5 and both come with motor questions. It's weird how similar they are. 

I will add that Kayvon's film is nasty. There is no one in this draft, even Hutch, that can turn the corner on a tackle like Kayvon. I don't recall Jordan being that freakish. 

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23 minutes ago, derp said:

Just for the sake of clarity, Gholston had 22.5 sacks (not 30) in 31 games. Thibodeaux had 19 (not 16) in 30. And to pick another name, Nick Bosa had 17.5 in 29. Thibodeaux also paced that group in TFL.

Stats can be helpful (when they’re correct, pretend stats don’t help too much) but certainly don’t tell the whole story.

omg damn lucky we didn't end up with Bosa then. Also looking it up now, his brother had 5 sacks as a junior & then declared for the draft. Dodged a bullet there, too.

and JJ Watt 11.5 career college sacks -- just like his brother. Glad we stayed away from these slackers.

Gholston ftw!

 

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

omg damn lucky we didn't end up with Bosa then. Also looking it up now, his brother had 5 sacks as a junior & then declared for the draft. Dodged a bullet there, too.

and JJ Watt 11.5 career college sacks -- just like his brother. Glad we stayed away from these slackers.

Gholston ftw!

 

Danielle Hunter - 4.5 college sacks in three seasons, 60.5 professional sacks in six seasons.

All joking aside increasing Gholston’s sacks by 7.5 and decreasing Thibodeaux’s by 3 is going to give people the wrong idea and it’s…not reality.

Thibodeaux is and should be a highly nitpicked prospect but his college production compared to Vernon Gholston’s is not the reason for that. I’m sure he’ll put on a show this week too and we’ll have folks effectively saying the Jets shouldn’t draft him because he’s athletic.

Just going to boil down to interviews and what folks at Oregon have to say about his work ethic for him. I kind of think despite all the “Saleh wants grinders” stuff they’ll click and he’ll end up firmly in play - but I could be dead wrong and that could certainly go the other way too.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Danielle Hunter - 4.5 college sacks in three seasons, 60.5 professional sacks in six seasons.

All joking aside increasing Gholston’s sacks by 7.5 and decreasing Thibodeaux’s by 3 is going to give people the wrong idea and it’s…not reality.

Thibodeaux is and should be a highly nitpicked prospect but his college production compared to Vernon Gholston’s is not the reason for that. I’m sure he’ll put on a show this week too and we’ll have folks effectively saying the Jets shouldn’t draft him because he’s athletic.

Just going to boil down to interviews and what folks at Oregon have to say about his work ethic for him. I kind of think despite all the “Saleh wants grinders” stuff they’ll click and he’ll end up firmly in play - but I could be dead wrong and that could certainly go the other way too.

The other thing about Thib is that Oregon moved him around a lot and had him rushing from different spots and playing contain or pass coverage at times. I think his pressure rate was actually very good when they actually rushed him.

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28 minutes ago, maury77 said:

The other thing about Thib is that Oregon moved him around a lot and had him rushing from different spots and playing contain or pass coverage at times. I think his pressure rate was actually very good when they actually rushed him.

Wow, when did they hire Rex?

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2 hours ago, derp said:

Danielle Hunter - 4.5 college sacks in three seasons, 60.5 professional sacks in six seasons.

All joking aside increasing Gholston’s sacks by 7.5 and decreasing Thibodeaux’s by 3 is going to give people the wrong idea and it’s…not reality.

Thibodeaux is and should be a highly nitpicked prospect but his college production compared to Vernon Gholston’s is not the reason for that. I’m sure he’ll put on a show this week too and we’ll have folks effectively saying the Jets shouldn’t draft him because he’s athletic.

Just going to boil down to interviews and what folks at Oregon have to say about his work ethic for him. I kind of think despite all the “Saleh wants grinders” stuff they’ll click and he’ll end up firmly in play - but I could be dead wrong and that could certainly go the other way too.

I fully admit I've never seen him play, let alone in such detail to suggest he takes plays off or something.

Still, there are other things besides sacks, including pressures/hits/hurries. While we all love a pass rusher to close the deal, if he's forcing the QB to throw it away or make an errant throw that gets picked off, it can end up nearly as good or better.

And considering the cost of a merely pretty good edge rusher is probably going to be in the $15MM+ range from 2022+ he'd still be worth it if he is just pretty good rather than Khalil Mack II. That, as opposed to drafting a RG - let alone a C - that'd still be questionable value (over the alternative prospects or trade opportunities) even if we get lucky and either IOLman turns into a probowler for us. 

He may not even be there when we pick, but if he's anything near as advertised, the Jets would have a really good DL that could get to the QB from any of their starting front 4: Thib-JFM-QW-C.Lawson, keeping fingers crossed that Lawson's nearly the same after healing up. That'd doubly reduce the need for subsequent major investment in the secondary and reduce the need for blitzing with nearly the same frequency.

I still have some of those earlier concerns that Douglas views his edge rushers as the two guys he's paying 8 figures/year this season, but hope he sees such a high ceiling edge rusher as a player he can't pass on, and that Saleh & co. can get him to reach his potential. 

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If he’s there, I think he’s the pick. This draft is “weak at the top” but Thibideux is probably the highest ceiling out of anyone in the conversation going that high.  I don’t think he’s very likely to be a complete bust either.  I think there’s a very good chance he’s a Quinnen Williams type impact except the DE version.  I think that’s the middle of his potential outcomes.  

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7 hours ago, bitonti said:

He will work out well but film is unimpressive. if he's such a great athlete how come he had only 16 career sacks. Gholston had 30. Pass. 

Do you see what you did right there...you're passing up on him because Gholston had more sack than he did.  Now you know why (even though he made All-pro at three different positions) Klecko isn't in the HOF.  Joe K only had 78 career sacks and that was aided by his 20.5 sacks in '81.  Joe K played 12 years and averaged 6.5 sacks a year...again, that 6.5 sacks is aided by his 20.5 sacks in '81.  D linemen are graded by sacks and or SB rings.  No rings for Joe and plenty of D linemen in the HOF because of the amount of sacks they had.  Gastineau played 10 years, 2 years less than Klecko and had 107.5 sacks.  That's 10.5 sacks per year.

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