What WILL happen? What SHOULD happen? RE: KAYVON THIBODEAUX and the 4th pick

[slimjasi]

I don't see how you pass on him if he's there. 

[bitonti]

18 hours ago, derp said:

Just for the sake of clarity, Gholston had 22.5 sacks (not 30) in 31 games. Thibodeaux had 19 (not 16) in 30. And to pick another name, Nick Bosa had 17.5 in 29. Thibodeaux also paced that group in TFL.

Stats can be helpful (when they’re correct, pretend stats don’t help too much) but certainly don’t tell the whole story.

Sorry I confused his 30.5 TFL with his 22.5 sacks 

The point I was trying to make was thibs is not that productive, given his athletic gifts. I stand by that. A player with his attributes should have more production

 

[bitonti]

12 hours ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Do you see what you did right there...you're passing up on him because Gholston had more sack than he did.  Now you know why (even though he made All-pro at three different positions) Klecko isn't in the HOF.  Joe K only had 78 career sacks and that was aided by his 20.5 sacks in '81.  Joe K played 12 years and averaged 6.5 sacks a year...again, that 6.5 sacks is aided by his 20.5 sacks in '81.  D linemen are graded by sacks and or SB rings.  No rings for Joe and plenty of D linemen in the HOF because of the amount of sacks they had.  Gastineau played 10 years, 2 years less than Klecko and had 107.5 sacks.  That's 10.5 sacks per year.

Klecko is not in the hall of fame because he has a record for felony tax fraud. Jets fans refuse to believe that had anything to do with it but it's about character. 

[NIGHT STALKER]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Klecko is not in the hall of fame because he has a record for felony tax fraud. Jets fans refuse to believe that had anything to do with it but it's about character. 

Listen, I know all about his personal life...even the part of running someone over which resulted in death.  I guarantee you there are players in the HOF with police records...possibly some on felony charges.  I was applying your logic of lack of sacks for not drafting Thibodeaux.  

[Sperm Edwards]

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Sorry I confused his 30.5 TFL with his 22.5 sacks 

The point I was trying to make was thibs is not that productive, given his athletic gifts. I stand by that. A player with his attributes should have more production

 

So you'd pass on him at 4?

I don't know what his other production is, aside from sacks (hits, pressures, hurries) as well as assignments (was he pinning his ears back every play and still only had 7 sacks in 10 games; was he double-teamed 80% of the time when he did; etc).

It's also the case that some of the best edge rushers in the league didn't rack up sacks in college, and vice versa with so many NFL busts.

Probably a lot of the reason they still do put so much weight on combine stuff that levels the playing field (no pun intended) because they all didn't play under the same situations equally. They still get it wrong more than they get it right, throughout the draft, because it seems it's pretty hard to see which college (and combine) lions will be nfl tabby cats, like Gholston. 

[derp]

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Sorry I confused his 30.5 TFL with his 22.5 sacks 

The point I was trying to make was thibs is not that productive, given his athletic gifts. I stand by that. A player with his attributes should have more production

 

That's fine, but both guys' numbers were off and it definitely told a very different story than reality - even if the point you were trying to make was reasonable. And obviously Gholston resonates here differently than another top ten bust. You can point to almost any prospect's athleticism or production and say it's worse than Gholston, too.

I also would argue that traits are a huge part of the evaluation process for edge rushers, and because of that we see guys whose production did not match their athletic gifts go in the top five, top ten pretty regularly. It's not like Thibodeaux's situation is unusual in that way. And plenty of the guys who went high without tremendous sack production turn out pretty good, too.

[Sperm Edwards]

12 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Klecko is not in the hall of fame because he has a record for felony tax fraud. Jets fans refuse to believe that had anything to do with it but it's about character. 

It's surely keeping others out e.g. Darren Sharper, if he might've gotten in on his playing merits, doing his HOF induction speech via zoom while wearing an orange jumpsuit is a bad look lol. 

But if the HOF is so high & mighty on character how come they don't kick them out afterward if they become felons later? Bust and glowing writeups below their busts & pictures are in Canton either way, so it's still a felon in the hall. Klecko's felonies came after his playing days, too. That it was between retirement and induction, morally, is a distinction without a difference.

Also Roethlisberger will probably get in because there was never an actual conviction, but everyone knows he did it and his past transgressions trump a white collar crime. 

[Jethead]

39 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's surely keeping others out e.g. Darren Sharper, if he might've gotten in on his playing merits, doing his HOF induction speech via zoom while wearing an orange jumpsuit is a bad look lol. 

But if the HOF is so high & mighty on character how come they don't kick them out afterward if they become felons later? Bust and glowing writeups below their busts & pictures are in Canton either way, so it's still a felon in the hall. Klecko's felonies came after his playing days, too. That it was between retirement and induction, morally, is a distinction without a difference.

Also Roethlisberger will probably get in because there was never an actual conviction, but everyone knows he did it and his past transgressions trump a white collar crime. 

If it does not fit, you must acquit!

[PepPep]

I still firmly believe Neal, Hutch. and Thib. will go top 3. So the Jets won't have a shot at him unless they move up. They will probably end up deciding between Hamilton, Sauce, Ekwonu, potentially a Pass Rusher who rises leading up to the draft or a trade down. Lots of options so Jet fans shouldn't be that worried.  

[Jet Nut]

23 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

I read this on this board so don't know the original source.  I read he takes plays off like Wilk did. The thing about great pass rushers that all of them have is they are relentless.  If this guy is not going after the QB like his hair is on fire every play, then it's a hard pass from me. 

Except that a lot of the scouting reports say this:  

Effort: He plays the game with outstanding effort. He is a relentless pass rusher who rushes with an extreme desire to get home. He also plays with very good pursuit angles on the backside of run plays. 

Or:

Strengths

Scouts say he's fueled by solid internal drive.

And:

The junior showed a strong motor all year long, fighting hard through a lot of double teams. 

[More Cowbell]

25 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Except that a lot of the scouting reports say this:  

Effort: He plays the game with outstanding effort. He is a relentless pass rusher who rushes with an extreme desire to get home. He also plays with very good pursuit angles on the backside of run plays. 

Or:

Strengths

Scouts say he's fueled by solid internal drive.

And:

The junior showed a strong motor all year long, fighting hard through a lot of double teams. 

There is also this

 

So why, all of a sudden, have questions arisen about someone who is projected by many to be a top-five pick in the 2022 NFL Draft? It has nothing to do with athleticism or football ability, it’s questions around his motor and other concerns.

As noted in February by ESPN’s Todd McShay, there’s a belief that Thibodeaux “doesn’t play with the same fire as some other top prospects.”

This was confirmed to me by many affiliated with the Oregon football program, who said that Thibodeaux didn’t play hard all the time and gave up on plays too easily. That same criticism has been expressed here at the Combine by scouts.

[section314]

21 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

There is also this

 

So why, all of a sudden, have questions arisen about someone who is projected by many to be a top-five pick in the 2022 NFL Draft? It has nothing to do with athleticism or football ability, it’s questions around his motor and other concerns.

As noted in February by ESPN’s Todd McShay, there’s a belief that Thibodeaux “doesn’t play with the same fire as some other top prospects.”

This was confirmed to me by many affiliated with the Oregon football program, who said that Thibodeaux didn’t play hard all the time and gave up on plays too easily. That same criticism has been expressed here at the Combine by scouts.

Remember after his JR. year when Josh Allen was the consensus #1 pick, and he had a poor game early his SR I think vs Iowa, and all the stuff started coming out ? What's the old saying......those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it??

[More Cowbell]

6 minutes ago, section314 said:

Remember after his JR. year when Josh Allen was the consensus #1 pick, and he had a poor game early his SR I think vs Iowa, and all the stuff started coming out ? What's the old saying......those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it??

When it comes to thebdraft, they only lesson to be learned from history is this is a total crap shoot. Go ask the team who drafted Wadsworth what they thought?

[section314]

2 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

When it comes to thebdraft, they only lesson to be learned from history is this is a total crap shoot. Go ask the team who drafted Wadsworth what they thought?

I agree, but my point is more that this time of year stuff comes out to start tearing down players, and it takes balls to stick to your guns if they check all your boxes. 

[Jet Nut]

43 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

There is also this

 

So why, all of a sudden, have questions arisen about someone who is projected by many to be a top-five pick in the 2022 NFL Draft? It has nothing to do with athleticism or football ability, it’s questions around his motor and other concerns.

As noted in February by ESPN’s Todd McShay, there’s a belief that Thibodeaux “doesn’t play with the same fire as some other top prospects.”

This was confirmed to me by many affiliated with the Oregon football program, who said that Thibodeaux didn’t play hard all the time and gave up on plays too easily. That same criticism has been expressed here at the Combine by scouts.

I have no idea, it’s just that other than one TV scout no one else seems to agree.  Any chance we’re getting smoke by some who want him to drop into their laps?

[More Cowbell]

23 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I have no idea, it’s just that other than one TV scout no one else seems to agree.  Any chance we’re getting smoke by some who want him to drop into their laps?

I don't  think McShay who seems to be at the heart of this has a well known affiliation to another team if that is what you're getting at. 

[Jet Nut]

30 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

I don't  think McShay who seems to be at the heart of this has a well known affiliation to another team if that is what you're getting at. 

No, I dont either but I was basing in more on the reason that the story was retold info that came from scouts, from teams

[OilfieldJet]

Depends on his ability to score.

 

Wait....

 

Hard pass.

[More Cowbell]

41 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

No, I dont either but I was basing in more on the reason that the story was retold info that came from scouts, from teams

We as fans will naturally pay attention to every piece of info. Gm's on the other hand should be able to make there own determination from internal scouting and film of each player. I highly doubt JD is using ESPN as a scouting resource.  Now this guy did say this came from the college level as well as other scouts at the combine. If that is to be believed, there is no way I spend the 4th pick in the draft on him. 

[Jet Nut]

19 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

We as fans will naturally pay attention to every piece of info. Gm's on the other hand should be able to make there own determination from internal scouting and film of each player. I highly doubt JD is using ESPN as a scouting resource.  Now this guy did say this came from the college level as well as other scouts at the combine. If that is to be believed, there is no way I spend the 4th pick in the draft on him. 

With all they spend on checking every available source on these kids you would think it isnt often that theyre totally off base.

[bitonti]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's surely keeping others out e.g. Darren Sharper, if he might've gotten in on his playing merits, doing his HOF induction speech via zoom while wearing an orange jumpsuit is a bad look lol. 

But if the HOF is so high & mighty on character how come they don't kick them out afterward if they become felons later? Bust and glowing writeups below their busts & pictures are in Canton either way, so it's still a felon in the hall. Klecko's felonies came after his playing days, too. That it was between retirement and induction, morally, is a distinction without a difference.

Also Roethlisberger will probably get in because there was never an actual conviction, but everyone knows he did it and his past transgressions trump a white collar crime. 

I don't make the rules, and I also can't explain why they are enforced differently for different players. But they do exist. 

tbh Klecko's lack of a ring also hurts

a player can be Lawrence Taylor or Ray Lewis (no convictions) and get in the hall but that dude better have multiple rings/8x-10x Pro Bowl type 

Klecko was good but he wasn't _that_ good. The making the Pro Bowl at 3 different positions was more of a "wow, huh" type of thing than a sign of his absolute dominance. 

If you were an NFL GM and you were taking a player from that defense for one game it would be Gastineau, btw. His measurables defy era. Klecko wouldn't have a place in the modern NFL, and that hurts his case as well  

[bitonti]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

So you'd pass on him at 4?

I would. A pass rusher with an inconsistent motor isn't a pass rusher I want the Jets to get into business with 

 

here's an article from the Oregon Ducks' Beater

Quote

Week after week this Pac-12 football season we heard opposing coaches talk about having to game plan around Oregon edge force Kayvon Thibodeaux. Now, the great debate has turned into what kind of NFL player the Ducks’ defensive end will be.

Thibodeaux is a great player. But is he a Top 5 pick? Top 10? Top 15?

I was absolutely certain Justin Herbert’s skill set was going to translate to being a good NFL player. Nobody could have predicted 9,350 passing yards in Herbert’s first two seasons or him setting the Chargers’ single-season record for touchdowns (38). But I had no reservations with seeing a team pick him in the Top 5-10 in that draft. I’m not there with Thibodeaux.

I had two Pac-12 Conference coaches tell me during the season that they thought Thibodeaux was a really disruptive college player but didn’t see him as a Top 10 player in the draft. One of them drew comparisons to some of the great defensive linemen in Pac-12 history and pointed out in an Oregon-on-Oregon comparison, “He’s nowhere near as dominant as DeForest Buckner was in college.”

Buckner was the No. 7 pick in 2016.

Thibodeaux is a sensational college talent. Explosive. Smart. He’s a first-round pick, for sure. But let’s be honest — he disappeared a few times on the field during his career at Oregon and I was left feeling underwhelmed by his play at times last season. Maybe some of this can be chalked up to unrealistic, sky-high expectations and the hype fostered non-stop by Mario Cristobal’s recruiting machine. Also, he had a high-ankle sprain and teams were game-planning around his presence.

Still, I’m very curious to see where Thibodeaux lands in the draft and what he does with his NFL career. He has a lot to prove this week at the NFL combine, but I won’t be surprised if he falls out of the Top 10. No shame there. In some ways slipping to an NFL team that has fewer needs would be beneficial to him. One longtime Pac-12 coach said, “He’s more like a 15-20 guy in my eyes, but all it takes is one team to believe.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2022/03/canzano-kayvon-thibodeauxs-draft-stock-herm-edwards-job-security-and-a-fearless-pac-12-prediction.html