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THIBS IS THERE AT #4. NOW WHAT?


Thibs is there at #4  

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  1. 1. Forget your personal feelings. He’s sitting there. Do the Jets take him at #4?



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4 hours ago, Untouchable said:

No, I didn’t.

But when a dude that was already viewed as a possible Top 10 pick and known as a great edge setter against the run with a rep for being a “team first” guy who loves the game ends up running a 4.51 at 6’5 275 and then puts up a 6.89 3-cone…that absolutely changes things.

How could it not?

This is a player with limitless potential barring injury at a position we’ve been starved at for nearly 20 years.

Yeah, but if you watch the tape, he played inside most of the time. Great athlete, but he is a huge projection at edge and that's tough in the top 10. 

I honestly feel Jaelan Phillips had better tape than any of the edge guys coming out this year (Tibs and Hutch included). At this stage, I'm kind of leaning towards Gardner at 4, offense at 10 (or trade down) and double dip at edge in the second. 

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6 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Yeah, but if you watch the tape, he played inside most of the time. Great athlete, but he is a huge projection at edge and that's tough in the top 10. 

I honestly feel Jaelan Phillips had better tape than any of the edge guys coming out this year (Tibs and Hutch included). At this stage, I'm kind of leaning towards Gardner at 4, offense at 10 (or trade down) and double dip at edge in the second. 

Yeah, I’ve been all over the place the past couple of days lol

FA can’t come soon enough so we can get a better grasp on the direction we’re going in late April.

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12 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Yeah, I’ve been all over the place the past couple of days lol

FA can’t come soon enough so we can get a better grasp on the direction we’re going in late April.

It’s kinda fun though isn’t it? 
Maybe there will come a time when March-April aren’t the best part of the football year for us?

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Clearly the Jets have to do their due diligence with interviews and tape- just like with any player. 

Thib. had plenty of production, has great tape and just had a great combine. He's been projected as one of the top edge rushers and top players in the class all year.

Barring any red flags that pop up during interviews, if he is there at 4, the Jets WILL take him. Personally, I think all this talk about him being a 'low effort' player who 'doesn't love football' (or whatever the rumors are) is nonsense and Thib. will go top 3. 

Only way I see the Jets pass on Thib is if they like a different Pass Rusher (who they expect to be around later on in the draft) and really like a guy like Hamilton, Ekwonu or Gardner- who they think won't make it to 10. The kind of thing where they go- damn we really love Thib., we didn't expect him to be available at 4. We just REALLY love player 'X' and can get Pass Rusher 'Y' at 10 (or Rd. 2 or whatever). 

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14 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

Wow. 66% say the Jets wouldn’t take him if he’s on the board at #4.

I wonder how much this is skewed by him not completing the combine?
Would the number be different a week ago?

Not for me it wouldn't....

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11 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I know what you are saying but I hate 'projection picks'  And I do not like prospects that could be position a, b, c, or d.  And on georgia they should have been pass rushing a lot due to being ahead in games.

I do not hate the player at all.  I just would prefer a guy like jermaine johnson, a pass rusher that improved each year and had 12 sacks last year and is a pass rusher.

i'll go a step further... With Jordan and Wyatt both as DL, Walker should have been cleaning up with sacks.  He's a good player, but a project at 4.

Becton is a project, we all loved what he might become. How bout loving what players ARE, not could become.

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13 hours ago, genot said:

Jeez. Beerfish. Lose's 15 lbs, plays on the outside for the 1st time. 6 sacks., 8 tackles for losses. 7 pressures in championship game. Combine numbers through the roof..If he's considered a coachable player, he might be worth the 4th pick. Without a doubt the 10th pick.

 . 

I dont think you take a player at 4 who has one year of stats and they're not that impressive over a stud OL or even DB.  He'd be a huge reach and this isnt the draft where we should be reaching no matter his combine numbers.  One of the top 2 OLmen, Hamilton or Sauce wouldnt be 

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18 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

Wow. 66% say the Jets wouldn’t take him if he’s on the board at #4.

I wonder how much this is skewed by him not completing the combine?
Would the number be different a week ago?

Why "wow"?  None of our opinions matter in the least to JD (thankfully!)   :)

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19 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Douglas and Saleh have preached how they want dudes who are utterly dedicated to football and helping this team become a consistent contender.

In a class that features no less than 5 edgerushers who could realistically go in the Top 10, how do you take this guy?

The only way I’m not taking Walker is if Hutchinson magically falls into our laps. 

Douglas and Saleh also have preached about this being a "rebuild the right way", "like Jets fans have never seen before" and "building through the draft" and yet here we are with many reports that they're looking to save their asses with big $$ big name free agent contracts same as always.

Maybe the things they say publicly shouldn't always be taken as the word of God and sacrosanct?  What they tell us fans is likely 99% BS to placate us, 1% truth.

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20 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Douglas and Saleh have preached how they want dudes who are utterly dedicated to football and helping this team become a consistent contender.

In a class that features no less than 5 edge rushers who are solid second rounders that could be stupidly picked in the Top 10, how do you take this guy?

 

Fixed. There are no elite EDGE that should be taken Top 10. They will of course because they are getting pushed up in the draft because of depth. Saleh is on record as saying there is no elite Bosa type and they are all grouped together. They are all flawed second rounders but the obsession with EDGE here has no bounds.

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19 hours ago, Untouchable said:

No, I didn’t.

But when a dude that was already viewed as a possible Top 10 pick and known as a great edge setter against the run with a rep for being a “team first” guy who loves the game ends up running a 4.51 at 6’5 275 and then puts up a 6.89 3-cone…that absolutely changes things.

How could it not?

This is a player with limitless potential barring injury at a position we’ve been starved at for nearly 20 years.

I don't get this. A 4.51 and sub 7 cone show athleticism but it does nothing to change the other 95% of the evaluation of the player. Combine should never dramatically change your evaluation from tape and interviews.

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6 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Fixed. There are no elite EDGE that should be taken Top 10. They will of course because they are getting pushed up in the draft because of depth. Saleh is on record as saying there is no elite Bosa type and they are all grouped together. They are all flawed second rounders but the obsession with EDGE here has no bounds.

I realize that it’s a weak class

But that doesn’t mean we still shouldn’t draft to the strength of said weak class, especially when it’s a huge area of need.

At the end of the day, depending on what the Jets do in FA, the best route overall is probably taking Gardner at #4 and then grabbing one of the EDGE guys at #10.

Especially if the Jets land a wideout and one of the top interior OL set to hit FA beforehand.

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5 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I don't get this. A 4.51 and sub 7 cone show athleticism but it does nothing to change the other 95% of the evaluation of the player. Combine should never dramatically change your evaluation from tape and interviews.

Walker was already considered a borderline Top 10 pick before the combine and has the flexibility to play all over the DL in multiple fronts.

Then he runs a 4.51 and puts up a 6.89 3-cone at 6’5 275?

Yes, that absolutely puts a prospect like that in Top 5 consideration.

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17 hours ago, genot said:

Jeez. Beerfish. Lose's 15 lbs, plays on the outside for the 1st time. 6 sacks., 8 tackles for losses. 7 pressures in championship game. Combine numbers through the roof. If he's considered a coachable player, he might be worth the 4th pick. Without a doubt the 10th pick.

 . 

I think that these type of thought processes are what causes 50% of draft picks to fail. Even in your own analysis there are a ton of "IFs"

IF that small sample size is relevant to the NFL

IF he is coachable

IF his combine numbers were not mostly a function of Combine training

IF he plays his best at 15 lbs lighter

I realize that drafting a player is projecting what he will be in the NFL but for many if not all these EDGEs there is just a TON of questionable projections made off of not really great production. The NFL fails because they get so enamored with "athletic big guys" that are so hard to find that they replace analysis with hope and wishful thinking. Things like "his production wasn't so great but he has a huge RAS score with a super fast 40 and 30 reps, so we will be able to get him to dominate in the NFL against dramatically better talent when he didn't in college"

Stick a mid-tier NFL EDGE rusher in college and his production would be off the charts. Now one or more of these guys will likely exceed expectations but it is very much like tossing the dice and hoping for a 6. 

Hype and FOMO drive the draft. I am not taking any of the EDGE at 4 and 10. There are other players that have the production to back up the draft position.

 

 

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I am going to challenge my inner Mike Maccagnan, but I think with a top 5/10 pick the Jets need to pick someone who is going to be a very good football player.   I don’t think he should be taking character or other risk.  

JD got a bit aggressive and took the player with more upside but more issues, like Becton, and now he is wearing egg on his face a bit.  I don’t think he can have 2/3 of his drafts with high drafted players causing problems. 

It just seems to me that players like Walker, Gardner and Johnson are going to be very good NFL players at impact positions.  I would be inclined to take players like that rather than Thib or Hamilton.  

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10 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

I realize that it’s a weak class

But that doesn’t mean we still shouldn’t draft to the strength of said weak class, especially when it’s a huge area of need.

At the end of the day, depending on what the Jets do in FA, the best route overall is probably taking Gardner at #4 and then grabbing one of the EDGE guys at #10.

Especially if the Jets land a wideout and one of the top interior OL set to hit FA beforehand.

My thought process is this. In every draft there are many times only 10-12 players that are truly worthy of a Top 10 pick. In this draft that number might be 5 or 6. At 4 I am either trading down or picking someone with an elite grade that is not super speculative as ALL of the EDGE are. Neal, Gardner, Icky, Hamilton and Hutchinson might be the only True first round graded players. I would taking on of those and then at 10 maybe you reach for an EDGE or just take one of the WR which is graded in the mid first tier.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

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21 hours ago, genot said:

I said this a month ago. Trade down, draft Travon Walker. The best d- lineman in the draft. Run defense instantly improves, and has all the tools to be a very good edge rusher. If we can't trade down, I still might take him

My mind changes like 42 times a day, right now I am hoping for amazing QB Pro Days and a trade down from 4. 

Move from 4 to 12, get a another pick this year and a 1st next year.

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5 hours ago, 68JET11 said:

i'll go a step further... With Jordan and Wyatt both as DL, Walker should have been cleaning up with sacks.  He's a good player, but a project at 4.

Becton is a project, we all loved what he might become. How bout loving what players ARE, not could become.

 

30 minutes ago, varjet said:

I am going to challenge my inner Mike Maccagnan, but I think with a top 5/10 pick the Jets need to pick someone who is going to be a very good football player.   I don’t think he should be taking character or other risk.  

JD got a bit aggressive and took the player with more upside but more issues, like Becton, and now he is wearing egg on his face a bit.  I don’t think he can have 2/3 of his drafts with high drafted players causing problems. 

It just seems to me that players like Walker, Gardner and Johnson are going to be very good NFL players at impact positions.  I would be inclined to take players like that rather than Thib or Hamilton.  

 

Hey I'm also bitter just like everyone else over his not returning to the field from his early injury, following what was reportedly a less than stellar sophomore summer, which has created some anxiety over how much insurance investment the team needs for him this year.

But that's now morphed into nobody wanting to remember or admit

  • Becton had a visibly better rookie season as a LT, while playing next to barely half a season of Alex Lewis, then the other half Pat Elflein and Josh Andrews, and all that followed a rookie summer that was already cut in half from covid...
  • than AVT had as a rookie LG, playing between two above average veterans for 15 games apiece

Becton may never fully reach the ceiling we'd hoped, or not consistently anyhow - hell, the coaches may be sick of him already and convince Douglas to dump him before the draft for all I know - but he was a bit more than just a project on the field wondering what he might become. He was an above average LT as a raw/project rookie. 

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1 hour ago, varjet said:

I am going to challenge my inner Mike Maccagnan, but I think with a top 5/10 pick the Jets need to pick someone who is going to be a very good football player.   I don’t think he should be taking character or other risk.  

JD got a bit aggressive and took the player with more upside but more issues, like Becton, and now he is wearing egg on his face a bit.  I don’t think he can have 2/3 of his drafts with high drafted players causing problems. 

It just seems to me that players like Walker, Gardner and Johnson are going to be very good NFL players at impact positions.  I would be inclined to take players like that rather than Thib or Hamilton.  

Hope it's Gardner but if Maccagnan was still the GM, our picks would be:

5: Kyle Hamilton
10: Jordan Davis

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6 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

I dont think you take a player at 4 who has one year of stats and they're not that impressive over a stud OL or even DB.  He'd be a huge reach and this isnt the draft where we should be reaching no matter his combine numbers.  One of the top 2 OLmen, Hamilton or Sauce wouldnt be 

Any offensive lineman who isn't a tackle would be a reach for us. Doesn't  move the needle, as much as a d- lineman who at the very least would improve our run defense in a significant way. Hamilton yes. Sauce, yes. A safety at #4????. Like I said yesterday. I change my mind every day.

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1 hour ago, Maxman said:

My mind changes like 42 times a day, right now I am hoping for amazing QB Pro Days and a trade down from 4. 

Move from 4 to 12, get a another pick this year and a 1st next year.

Let's hope Denver falls in love with Pickett. Or someone plays it safe and trades up for Hamilton. 

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15 hours ago, genot said:

Any offensive lineman who isn't a tackle would be a reach for us. Doesn't  move the needle, as much as a d- lineman who at the very least would improve our run defense in a significant way. Hamilton yes. Sauce, yes. A safety at #4????. Like I said yesterday. I change my mind every day.

Agreed.  Both of the top OL are tackles though.  My problem wth the DL is that after Hutchington, especially with Thibs whacking out theres a big drop off and leaves quite a number of DL who arent that far off from each other.  Now it looks like Neal and Ekwonu will be gone by 4.  Neal may go 1st.  SO it may make a whole lot of sense to take Sauce or Hamilton at 4 and then go WR at  10 and pick one of the DL in the 2nd.

Or maybe not  

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