McShay post combine mock draft: Neal & Sauce for the Jets

[Tranquilo]

Is there any legit buzz on who we might pick for real? 

[docdhc]

11 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Sign me up

I think we should be able to build a good OL without 3 number 1 picks (Becton, AVT, and then Neal).  It’s too much high draft capital when we have so many other needs. Hopefully Becton comes back healthy and Fant continues to play well, and we can upgrade right guard later in the draft or through free agency and save the 2 top ten picks for playmakers, 1 edge and 1 WR. That would be my preference. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

17 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Is there any legit buzz on who we might pick for real? 

I've been checking daily with my sources on jetnation.com -- all extremely credible -- and it seems like the following:

Edge = Thibs, Johnson, Walker

OL = Neal, Ekwonu

WR = London

Corner = Some guy named Sauce

 

[Integrity28]

11 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Seems like it would be silly to take another tackle that high.  Seems like a poor allocation of resources and an unnecessary use of a pick given the fact the OL was the strength of the team.  Also, JD would have to swallow a ton of pride taking Becton’s replacement 2 years after selecting him with an entire year on the IR.  Just can’t imagine this and really hope we don’t see this on draft day.  

All this + JD is supposed to be an OL guru + we need a C, RT and RG. All of those are OL spots than can be filled later in most drafts. Specifically RG, the amount of former OTs that’ll have to kick inside + the natural OGs = plenty of options.

4 and 10 picks this year should be edge, lb, wr, or cb based on how it falls.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

15 hours ago, doitny said:

3-4, 4-3 they both rush the passer. 

our OL avg 4.4 ypc which was 11th best in the league. so how poor were these guys?

imagine how good MC1 would be if we weren't last in run attempts? 4.4 YPC would have been great with more rushes. we passed the ball almost twice as much as we threw it. thats because we were always down. imagine if we used a 1st rd pick or 2 on defense instead of OL we could see MC1 get more carries and really see what he could have done.

if we draft an Edge at 4 he starts right away over JFM.

if we draft a CB at 4 he starts right away over Echols.

if we draft a Safety at 4 he starts right away and is 10 times better than anyone we got.

if we draft a WR at 4 he starts right away with Moore and Davis.

but if you draft Neil who is a pure Tackle to play Guard your drafting a guy who will start one year out of position just in case Becton fails. and if he doesn't then you dont resign Fant. the difference between Fant and Neil is not that big. if Becton plays well then you force us to not resign Fant our 2nd best OL last year. so out of 5 guys on the OL this move will force our 2nd best out. thats insane.

we got a bottomless pit at Safety. we dont put pressure on the QB. we can stop the run. we need another WR or 2 to help Zach. we have no TE whatsoever. all of those are much more of a priority right now over OL. 

 

Amen!  Very surprised that some want an insurance policy at #4 for Becton or Fant.  Have these people not seen the holes on our roster??? 

Where I might disagree with you is Ekwonu.  He naturally fills that OG spot AND is an insurance policy at tackle and might just make this OL dominant.  I'd take a dominant unit over investing in a safety, tight end, or lb that early.  A great corner like Sauce at 4 or 10 immediately helps the pass rush and should be on the table.  Sauce plus Edge at top of round 2 has me salivating.  

[kevinc855]

Im a no with a tackle at 4

Take the CB at 10 tho

[xJayce]

4 hours ago, genot said:

We don't need to draft another Tackle. We resigned McDermott. 

Or another receiver!! McDermott had our best TD reception from last year as well!

[varjet]

My draft board is now Hutchinson, Ekwonu, Walker, Sauce, Wilson, Hamilton. I don’t want Thib or Neal.   

[Jet hustle]

14 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Where’s the edge?  
I want a edge over both of these players.

In fact, I’d rather have a edge at both 4 

You should change your name to 'Jimmy 2 Edge'

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

10 hours ago, varjet said:

My draft board is now Hutchinson, Ekwonu, Walker, Sauce, Wilson, Hamilton. I don’t want Thib or Neal.   

Thoughts on London?

[Maynard13]

Take Sauce at 4. He will be gone if they wait until 10. Trade the 10 spot and pick up an extra 2nd rounder. This is a deep draft on many positions. We got more holes than a New Orleans brothel. 

[Maynard13]

5 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Thoughts on London?

I prefer going to Paris or Barcelona. 

[Maynard13]

13 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

Is there any legit buzz on who we might pick for real? 

Rumor is Woody will have JD trade one of of our firsts for a goalie.

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Take Sauce at 4. He will be gone if they wait until 10. Trade the 10 spot and pick up an extra 2nd rounder. This is a deep draft on many positions. We got more holes than a New Orleans brothel. 

It’s the Edge that stirs the drink in this defense, not the secondary. Edge is the strength of this draft. Four of the top nine picks in the draft could be Edges this year, leaving the Jets **** at #10. Gotta take the Edge at #4, especially if only Hutch goes on the top three. 
 
While the team has many holes, the biggest one is the general category of, “impact players.” Two top ten picks gives the team the chance to add two of those this year. Any trade downs will be weighed against that important opportunity. I really tend to doubt that JD would be looking to add too many more picks this year, and that any trade back would need to include a 2023 first rounder, instead. He’s already got the youngest team in the league and is poised to add another five or six of the top 100 prospects, as well as having more cap room than the vast majority of the league. Jets will again be one of -if not the- youngest teams in the league again this year. 

[Sperm Edwards]

On 3/9/2022 at 8:29 AM, Claymation said:

The Jets OL was a strength? Quarterback Zach Wilson saw pressure on 32.5% of his rookie-season dropbacks (seventh most).

Except that's a stat without context. QBs who hold the ball longer see more pressure; QBs who get rid of it quicker make their team's linemen look better than they are. Brady on this team makes the OL look better; Wilson on Tampa's OL makes them look worse (particularly/doubly if we then swap the TE+WR corps)

Teams facing blitzes because they know the TE-less team's WR corps doesn't get open fast, and that the QB eats it a lot, also create pressure stats that likewise aren't on the OL.

Never mind every pressure isn't on the OL; if it's a blitzer that was unsuccessfully picked up by a back or TE then plenty of the time that has nothing to do with the OL.

An extra blitzer up the gut -- is Neal going to help there? If the extra blitzer is on the other side, same question. 

Stats don't always indicate a simple, narrow conclusion. 

[Jethead]

18 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

 

I want Walker.

Call me a combine whore. 

My concern is that Walker = Bryan Thomas. Combine star no pass rush chops. Wouldn't drop Thibs from consideration just yet. 

[Beerfish]

15 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

Is there any legit buzz on who we might pick for real? 

No.  The Jets under Douglas are pretty good at keeping things under the lid.  We've had our usual quotes of 'The jets love this player or that player' but nothing of note that I have seen.

[Claymation]

33 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Except that's a stat without context. QBs who hold the ball longer see more pressure; QBs who get rid of it quicker make their team's linemen look better than they are. Brady on this team makes the OL look better; Wilson on Tampa's OL makes them look worse (particularly/doubly if we then swap the TE+WR corps)

Teams facing blitzes because they know the TE-less team's WR corps doesn't get open fast, and that the QB eats it a lot, also create pressure stats that likewise aren't on the OL.

Never mind every pressure isn't on the OL; if it's a blitzer that was unsuccessfully picked up by a back or TE then plenty of the time that has nothing to do with the OL.

An extra blitzer up the gut -- is Neal going to help there? If the extra blitzer is on the other side, same question. 

Stats don't always indicate a simple, narrow conclusion. 

Michael Carter's 2 yards before contact, is an indicator that the Jets OL wasn't that good in the run game. That was 39th in the league. His 2.3 yards after contact is an indicator is an indicator that he is a good back, tied for 8th. Yet people like to use the 4.4 yards per carry to say the Jets OL was good last year running the ball.

 

[varjet]

3 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Thoughts on London?

Not at 4.  Could be the call at 10 if we go EDGE at 4.  

[Augustiniak]

2 hours ago, slats said:

It’s the Edge that stirs the drink in this defense, not the secondary. Edge is the strength of this draft. Four of the top nine picks in the draft could be Edges this year, leaving the Jets **** at #10. Gotta take the Edge at #4, especially if only Hutch goes on the top three. 
 
While the team has many holes, the biggest one is the general category of, “impact players.” Two top ten picks gives the team the chance to add two of those this year. Any trade downs will be weighed against that important opportunity. I really tend to doubt that JD would be looking to add too many more picks this year, and that any trade back would need to include a 2023 first rounder, instead. He’s already got the youngest team in the league and is poised to add another five or six of the top 100 prospects, as well as having more cap room than the vast majority of the league. Jets will again be one of -if not the- youngest teams in the league again this year. 

yes, it seems obvious at this point that the jets really need to take their favorite edge at 4.  I do think they will have a dilemma at 10 b/c they will be able to take their favorite wr, but also, i suspect they will have trade down offers.

[Tranquilo]

If we do decide to take an edge at 4, and it seems like we'd lean Travon Walker. Is he enough of a can't miss prospect to pass on a seemingly can't miss prospect like Sauce Gardner? Or is there enough there that you'd have to take the risk? Cause it seems like he has all the ability (Walker) but he wasn't asked to play from the edge much, so his sack production numbers aren't there. Are we confident enough that his skills will translate in the next level?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

42 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

If we do decide to take an edge at 4, and it seems like we'd lean Travon Walker. Is he enough of a can't miss prospect to pass on a seemingly can't miss prospect like Sauce Gardner? Or is there enough there that you'd have to take the risk? Cause it seems like he has all the ability (Walker) but he wasn't asked to play from the edge much, so his sack production numbers aren't there. Are we confident enough that his skills will translate in the next level?

Great question and that's why I personally favor the higher probability of success prospect in Gardner.  Having great corners also help the pass rush.

The other question to ask is how deep are the corners vs. edge in this draft.  Give me Sauce at 4 + Boye Mafe at top of round 2.  Mafe had 7 sacks senior year in Big 10, Senior Bowl MVP, and just lit up the Combine.

 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Except that's a stat without context. QBs who hold the ball longer see more pressure; QBs who get rid of it quicker make their team's linemen look better than they are. Brady on this team makes the OL look better; Wilson on Tampa's OL makes them look worse (particularly/doubly if we then swap the TE+WR corps)

Teams facing blitzes because they know the TE-less team's WR corps doesn't get open fast, and that the QB eats it a lot, also create pressure stats that likewise aren't on the OL.

Never mind every pressure isn't on the OL; if it's a blitzer that was unsuccessfully picked up by a back or TE then plenty of the time that has nothing to do with the OL.

An extra blitzer up the gut -- is Neal going to help there? If the extra blitzer is on the other side, same question. 

Stats don't always indicate a simple, narrow conclusion. 

Great points.  A lot of the Jets pressure came from subpar blocking from the Tight Ends and Running Backs.  There was a good analysis of this on jetsxfactor.com.

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Claymation said:

Michael Carter's 2 yards before contact, is an indicator that the Jets OL wasn't that good in the run game. That was 39th in the league. His 2.3 yards after contact is an indicator is an indicator that he is a good back, tied for 8th. Yet people like to use the 4.4 yards per carry to say the Jets OL was good last year running the ball.

 

You were referring to pass blocking, though. Number of pressures, without the context of how long before said pressure, isn't an all-telling stat. 

You can't hold the ball for 3/4 of a second longer than someone else and expect the OL ranking to be the same. Not even if the personnel on the line was the same. 

[Claymation]

35 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You were referring to pass blocking, though. Number of pressures, without the context of how long before said pressure, isn't an all-telling stat. 

You can't hold the ball for 3/4 of a second longer than someone else and expect the OL ranking to be the same. Not even if the personnel on the line was the same. 

I was responding to someone saying that the OL was the best unit on the team last year.

I just illustrated that they aren't with pressures and with yards before contact stats. Now whether they address the line via FA or the draft doesn't matter to me, the holes need to be fixed. One being RG and the other being Center.

I am assuming that the .75 seconds longer is in the pocket and not because he was scrambling.

What I saw last year was a QB under duress, some self inflicted but the majority because failure of the line and receiving corp. So when people call the OL the best unit, I say poppycock!

[FidelioJet]

3 minutes ago, Claymation said:

I was responding to someone saying that the OL was the best unit on the team last year.

I just illustrated that they aren't with pressures and with yards before contact stats. Now whether they address the line via FA or the draft doesn't matter to me, the holes need to be fixed. One being RG and the other being Center.

I am assuming that the .75 seconds longer is in the pocket and not because he was scrambling.

What I saw last year was a QB under duress, some self inflicted but the majority because failure of the line and receiving corp. So when people call the OL the best unit, I say poppycock!

Yes, that was just more of Wilson haters finding additional ways to attack him.  

The OL was mostly bad last year - Yes, they got better as the season went on and for a few games they were solid - until everyone got hurt and then it was just terrible the last few games of the season...

Moreover, those first three weeks was the worst OL performances I have ever seen - there should be no argument how bad they were the first few games.  It was a very tough way to start a raw rookie's career.

 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

13 minutes ago, Claymation said:

I was responding to someone saying that the OL was the best unit on the team last year.

I just illustrated that they aren't with pressures and with yards before contact stats. Now whether they address the line via FA or the draft doesn't matter to me, the holes need to be fixed. One being RG and the other being Center.

I am assuming that the .75 seconds longer is in the pocket and not because he was scrambling.

What I saw last year was a QB under duress, some self inflicted but the majority because failure of the line and receiving corp. So when people call the OL the best unit, I say poppycock!

I don't think center is a hole -- and if it is then that's what's self-inflicted. They have an under-30 veteran center under contract. I'm not going to get into who's ranked where, but he was at worst an average center. That's not a hole. 

Also a lot of the pressures weren't on the OL, and it goes without saying that if pressures occurred after 2.8 seconds or however much longer than that, then there'd have been no pressure if the ball was already out. When Wilson holds the ball too long; when the injured WR corps - and nonexistent TE corps - don't get open in 2.5 seconds or less with that first cut (or often routes just take longer than that); when the TE and RBs whiff on blitzes; when the rookie QB doesn't even notice an extra blitzer creeping up about to be unblocked to take his head off -- none of that's on the OL, so upgrading one guard won't even change those things.

Also those coaching the change have attested it's not an instant success change, and takes a while to 'get it' even with solid personnel. Now compound that with a rookie LG who had his struggles in protection, a LT who flipped sides mid-game week 1 next to him, a bleh RG (who was then upgraded to merely meh), and a RT who honestly wasn't a scheme fit in the first place.

So poppycock aside , I hadn't given it much thought until seeing it in this thread but it's not hard to conclude the OL was the best unit, flaws and all. Then further consider:

Sack percentage: 

• White 2.9% (avg TTT 2.5 sec)
• Flacco 4.5% (avg TTT 2.3 sec)
• Johnson 4.3% (avg TTT 2.8 sec; but it was just 1 game)
• Wilson 10.3% (avg TTT 3.1 sec)

After Wilson's first few games there were really only 2 games he got creamed. One of them was the final game, when half the offense was backups (all his starting WRs & TE, 2 OLmen (technically 3 if you count Becton). The other game was Miami where I'd agree he often had no chance. Not coincidentally, both were games where McDermott was in at LT plus Moses putting up a stinker, meaning it's like Wilson had a 3-man line blocking for him at times (on top of the sucky TE/RB pass blocking). 

[Maynard13]

7 hours ago, slats said:

It’s the Edge that stirs the drink in this defense, not the secondary. Edge is the strength of this draft. Four of the top nine picks in the draft could be Edges this year, leaving the Jets **** at #10. Gotta take the Edge at #4, especially if only Hutch goes on the top three. 
 
While the team has many holes, the biggest one is the general category of, “impact players.” Two top ten picks gives the team the chance to add two of those this year. Any trade downs will be weighed against that important opportunity. I really tend to doubt that JD would be looking to add too many more picks this year, and that any trade back would need to include a 2023 first rounder, instead. He’s already got the youngest team in the league and is poised to add another five or six of the top 100 prospects, as well as having more cap room than the vast majority of the league. Jets will again be one of -if not the- youngest teams in the league again this year. 

But but but you’ve said in past posts JD will trade back with one of those firsts and how we need to add depth etc etc etc which I totally agree with. Besides, Sauce is perfect for this D. Our secondary was atrocious and he is as can’t miss as you can get. He will not last to 10.  Not after the combine numbers he put up and he’s a high character kid. You trade that 10, and there’s still edges that can be had in 1st round around 14 to 28. Also we have Larson coming back and JFM will move inside - Lawson, QW, JFM, Edge (draft or FA). 

[rangerous]

we just saw the rams win the superbowl with a 40 year old left tackle and a non-existent run game.  no doubt it helps to have a great oline and to be sure the jets do need to figure out the rg and rt positions (assuming becton doesn't come back strong) but they don't need to use the 4th pick for this.  the oline needs to play together and they need to stay intact throughout the season.