Pro Day Updates

[Lith]

Arkansas today.  Burks working out, but standing on his 4.55 40 time.

 

[Lith]

Schedule of confrimed Pro Days:

March 9

Arkansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
UAB
Wisconsin
 

March 10
Fordham
South Alabama
 

March 11
Illinois
Indiana
Texas
Tulsa

March 14

Arizona State
Georgia Tech
Kent State
Western Michigan
March 15
Auburn
Central Michigan
UCLA
March 16
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan State
Minnesota
March 17
Clemson
South Carolina State
Stanford
March 18
Coastal Carolina
Michigan
South Carolina
March 20
Baylor
Boise State
March 21
Iowa
Nevada
Northern Iowa
Pittsburgh
Toledo
March 22
Iowa State
Liberty
Mississippi State
Nebraska
Rutgers
San Diego State
Texas A&M
Virginia Tech
March 23
Connecticut
Mississippi
Ohio State
South Dakota State
USC
UTSA
Virginia
March 24
Brown
Cincinnati
Fresno State
Memphis
North Dakota
North Dakota State
Oklahoma State
Penn State
SMU
Utah
March 25
Boston College
BYU
Culver-Stockton
Missouri
Missouri Western State
Notre Dame
TCU
March 28
Air Force
Florida
Florida A&M
Idaho
North Carolina
Sam Houston State
Washington State
March 29
Fayetteville State
Florida State
Louisville
North Carolina State
Purdue
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
March 30
Alabama
Colorado State
Florida International
Maryland
Miami
Tennessee
Wake Forest
March 31
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Tennessee-Chattanooga
Texas Tech
Western Kentucky

April 1
Houston
Kentucky
Oregon
UCF
April 4
Louisiana-Lafayette
Montana State
April 5
Nicholls State
Southeastern Louisiana
Southern A&M
USC (WR Drake London)
April 6
LSU

[kdels62]

Burks in free fall. 

[Untouchable]

18 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Burks in free fall. 

Might even be there at the top of the 3rd at this point.

Even then, if a guy like Pickens was also there, that’s who I would take.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

20 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Burks in free fall. 

In general or did something happen at the pro day?

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

2 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

In general or did something happen at the pro day?

 

 

[Lith]

 

[Hal N of Provo]

5 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

In general or did something happen at the pro day?

He was lower on.  All the early stuff said l late 1st early second seemed to be where he’d be.  
 

People started saying he was going to put up freakish 4.3 type numbers and that started the talk and speculation.  

[derp]

Gladly take Burks round 2 if he’s there.

[Beerfish]

He is not going to last to round two.

He'll be in round two like Kyle hamilton will end up in round 2 because of his sloth like 40 time.  Not happening.

Tape over work out numbers.

[derp]

13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

He is not going to last to round two.

He'll be in round two like Kyle hamilton will end up in round 2 because of his sloth like 40 time.  Not happening.

Tape over work out numbers.

I don’t think he’s going to last to round two either, but stranger things have happened.

The tape over work out numbers is an odd argument for Burks. Production, maybe. But Burks is raw. Raw plus perceived less physical upside is an odd combo.  I think speed is way overrated but think it’s possible he slides.

[Stark]

9 hours ago, derp said:

I don’t think he’s going to last to round two either, but stranger things have happened.

The tape over work out numbers is an odd argument for Burks. Production, maybe. But Burks is raw. Raw plus perceived less physical upside is an odd combo.  I think speed is way overrated but think it’s possible he slides.

Game speed for Burks. Tape shows him out running DBs and not just a few yds. 
have to take all into account. I care more about what the player does in pads during games than in a spandex outfit with no real physical competition ie WR vs DB 

He might drop some but I think somehow I’ll get him in rd 2 and be happy with an AJ Brown type receiver 

 

[derp]

11 minutes ago, Stark said:

Game speed for Burks. Tape shows him out running DBs and not just a few yds. 
have to take all into account. I care more about what the player does in pads during games than in a spandex outfit with no real physical competition ie WR vs DB 

He might drop some but I think somehow I’ll get him in rd 2 and be happy with an AJ Brown type receiver 

 

I like Burks as a prospect, I’m talking about the possibilities of where he goes, not where I think he should go. The 40 is way overrated for wide receivers in my opinion, his was fast enough anyway so I’m not worried about it, and he’s big so I think there’s a degree of build up speed there. If anything the vertical was more concerning.

All that said he’s a raw prospect. I think when that’s the case it’s more important to emphatically tick the physical boxes to go high, and he didn’t. Figure he’s similar to DeAndre Hopkins physically - really similar after the vert at Burks’ pro day though Hopkins did run a way better three cone - but Hopkins was a more polished WR coming out and went late first in a bad draft. 

Think Burks’ range includes the second round now, that’s all. Still really like the prospect. Just doesn’t strike me as a profile NFL teams value.

[nycdan]

We talk about this draft as being light at the top, but very deep into the 2nd round.

When I look at a few big boards, I'm actually seeing an interesting drop-off right at the bottom of round 1.

Example: https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2022

It feels pretty solid right up until 26/26 (Jermaine Johnson and Andrew Booth).  It's easy to see those two and everyone in the top-25 on this list going 1st round.  A few picks lower, you see Burks at 31.  But everywhere else, you see the guys typically appearing at the top of the 2nd round in mocks.  Zion Johnson, Kenyon Greene, all of the Safeties not named Hamilton.  Even if Ridder or Corral slide up, it's not easy to see how a guy like Burks falls below 32 because the value in the 30-40 range feels different than 20-30.  Maybe I'm seeing too many copycat mocks and more will be revealed, but while I think we will get two very solid prospects at 35 and 38, I'm not expecting a surprise 1st round talent to drop to us. 

[section314]

Great interview with Jerry Rice two days ago. Said speed, as in straight line that they test in the 40, is way overrated. Basically said guys can train for it and is probably the least important thing that scouts look at. He clearly delineated between “ track” speed and football speed. Said route running, ability to get open and catch the ball and YAC are what scouts look for. Friendly wager that Burks is 1st WR off the board.

[derp]

10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

We talk about this draft as being light at the top, but very deep into the 2nd round.

When I look at a few big boards, I'm actually seeing an interesting drop-off right at the bottom of round 1.

Example: https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2022

It feels pretty solid right up until 26/26 (Jermaine Johnson and Andrew Booth).  It's easy to see those two and everyone in the top-25 on this list going 1st round.  A few picks lower, you see Burks at 31.  But everywhere else, you see the guys typically appearing at the top of the 2nd round in mocks.  Zion Johnson, Kenyon Greene, all of the Safeties not named Hamilton.  Even if Ridder or Corral slide up, it's not easy to see how a guy like Burks falls below 32 because the value in the 30-40 range feels different than 20-30.  Maybe I'm seeing too many copycat mocks and more will be revealed, but while I think we will get two very solid prospects at 35 and 38, I'm not expecting a surprise 1st round talent to drop to us. 

I tend to think the late first round usually gets a little weird and deviates from the groupthink we see in mock drafts. I remember a couple drafts ago pushing back on the idea that Mims was a lock first round pick.

That board has Dotson pretty far below Burks, Winfrey really low as well. Running backs tend to go late round one and the top two ran sub 4.4 so I think they’re in play in that area. Corners are always highly in demand and different teams will value different traits there. Safety could definitely get a run. 

With Burks specifically, he’s at 31 on that board so a drop to 35 is in range. I think is issue is that he was largely a “get the ball in his hands” guy in college who lacks polish as a route runner, beating press, etc. So he’s effectively a developmental/gadget guy who I think teams are going to have a hard time figuring out how they’ll get him on the field early, but he doesn’t have standout traits. That hurts two ways - it’s less obviously he’ll produce in gadget situations early in his career because you can’t lean on him being bigger/stronger/faster than everyone else, and those traits also limit his upside as a developmental guy. I think analytics-y folks appreciate the specific profile more than NFL teams who haven’t figured out speed is overrated and weight is underrated for WR’s yet.

[derp]

15 minutes ago, section314 said:

Great interview with Jerry Rice two days ago. Said speed, as in straight line that they test in the 40, is way overrated. Basically said guys can train for it and is probably the least important thing that scouts look at. He clearly delineated between “ track” speed and football speed. Said route running, ability to get open and catch the ball and YAC are what scouts look for. Friendly wager that Burks is 1st WR off the board.

Bold is true, but until NFL teams realize it it doesn’t impact italics. And underlined is a weakness for Burks which is part of the problem, if it was a strength he’d be a very different prospect.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

Great interview with Jerry Rice two days ago. Said speed, as in straight line that they test in the 40, is way overrated. Basically said guys can train for it and is probably the least important thing that scouts look at. He clearly delineated between “ track” speed and football speed. Said route running, ability to get open and catch the ball and YAC are what scouts look for. Friendly wager that Burks is 1st WR off the board.

This is why I would want Garrett Wilson at 10.  Great route runner who would fit well in our offense.  I think he is exaclty what we need.  Edge at 4.  Wilson at 10.  And I am a happy man on draft night (which rarely happens).  

[section314]

4 minutes ago, Lith said:

This is why I would want Garrett Wilson at 10.  Great route runner who would fit well in our offense.  I think he is exaclty what we need.  Edge at 4.  Wilson at 10.  And I am a happy man on draft night (which rarely happens).  

I agree that those are the two most impactful needs of this team. I know it's that crazy season from now until the actual draft, but right now, it looks like you might have to reverse your order if Wison is your guy. Or London for that matter. Both are going before that in most mocks I've been practicing on for our JN mock. Again, this will probably change 100x like every year. 

[Chrebetfan80]

39 minutes ago, Lith said:

This is why I would want Garrett Wilson at 10.  Great route runner who would fit well in our offense.  I think he is exaclty what we need.  Edge at 4.  Wilson at 10.  And I am a happy man on draft night (which rarely happens).  

Wilson is the real deal.  I dont think we draft him, but who ever does is getting a fantastic player. 

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Wilson is the real deal.  I dont think we draft him, but who ever does is getting a fantastic player. 

I get a Jerry Jeudy vibe from him.  Similar size, similar style and strengths.  

I'm fine with either him or London but I would very much like to see one of them happen at 10.

[derp]

4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I get a Jerry Jeudy vibe from him.  Similar size, similar style and strengths.  

I'm fine with either him or London but I would very much like to see one of them happen at 10.

Not exactly sure how it was intended here but I feel like folks use the Jerry Jeudy comparison as a good thing and I never take it that way. Partially my own bias, I didn’t like Jeudy that much as a prospect, but he hasn’t been great so far.

[Chrebetfan80]

7 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I get a Jerry Jeudy vibe from him.  Similar size, similar style and strengths.  

I'm fine with either him or London but I would very much like to see one of them happen at 10.

Not a terrible comparison, but they are different to me.  Jeudy was a little more polished and definitely bigger coming out.  Wilson is very good, smaller, and probably quicker than jeudy was, definitely straight line faster time wise.  

I like wilson a lot, I just dont see us making the move at 10 for him. If we were to trade down and he was there then maybe.  But I cant see us pulling the trigger at 10 with JD's track record.  OL/DL or possibly CB in those spots as far as I can tell.  Wont rule out WR's but i would just be a little surprised. 

[derp]

1 minute ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Not a terrible comparison, but they are different to me.  Jeudy was a little more polished and definitely bigger coming out.  Wilson is very good, smaller, and probably quicker than jeudy was, definitely straight line faster time wise.  

I like wilson a lot, I just dont see us making the move at 10 for him. If we were to trade down and he was there then maybe.  But I cant see us pulling the trigger at 10 with JD's track record.  OL/DL or possibly CB in those spots as far as I can tell.  Wont rule out WR's but i would just be a little surprised. 

I did not expect Wilson to come in to the combine at 183, and frankly expected a little more explosiveness in the jumps. The weight is really low, and I was kind of hoping he'd come in heavier than the 190 or so he was listed at as opposed to lighter.

I know you've made the Robert Woods comparison before, but Woods was almost 20 pounds heavier at the combine, which is a pretty huge difference. Is there anyone more on the slight side who you think he compares well too? Guys like Diggs, Dionte Johnson, Lockett, Mooney, and Waddle are all lighter guys who are productive - Waddle was the only one drafted in the first two rounds and feel they're very different. Feel like most of the successful early round guys have been thicker up until last year when Waddle had some success as did Smith, but think Wilson's different from those guys.

[Chrebetfan80]

34 minutes ago, derp said:

I did not expect Wilson to come in to the combine at 183, and frankly expected a little more explosiveness in the jumps. The weight is really low, and I was kind of hoping he'd come in heavier than the 190 or so he was listed at as opposed to lighter.

I know you've made the Robert Woods comparison before, but Woods was almost 20 pounds heavier at the combine, which is a pretty huge difference. Is there anyone more on the slight side who you think he compares well too? Guys like Diggs, Dionte Johnson, Lockett, Mooney, and Waddle are all lighter guys who are productive - Waddle was the only one drafted in the first two rounds and feel they're very different. Feel like most of the successful early round guys have been thicker up until last year when Waddle had some success as did Smith, but think Wilson's different from those guys.

I still think the woods comparison is the best.  Their games are extremely similar although at the lighter weight, I wouldnt see him as the blocking threat that Woods is, but the Diontae Johnson comparison is good as well.  Especially at the weight, although Wilson is 2 inches taller.  

I was surprised he cut down that much too but I believe he'll play around 195.  I think he cut down for that 40 time. 

[derp]

3 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I still think the woods comparison is the best.  Their games are extremely similar although at the lighter weight, I wouldnt see him as the blocking threat that Woods is, but the Diontae Johnson comparison is good as well.  Especially at the weight, although Wilson is 2 inches taller.  

I was surprised he cut down that much too but I believe he'll play around 195.  I think he cut down for that 40 time. 

Makes sense he cut for the 40 time, guess it’s a good idea for draft position. Definitely hope he plays more around that 195, that’s what he looked like to me anyway.

Put the 12 pounds on him and the physical profile probably looks more like Woods.

Different question, different player. I feel like when I watch London I never see him run past anyone and he really didn’t make explosive plays in college. Function of usage or is there a decent chance he’s just pretty slow and purely a possession guy?

[nycdan]

29 minutes ago, derp said:

Makes sense he cut for the 40 time, guess it’s a good idea for draft position. Definitely hope he plays more around that 195, that’s what he looked like to me anyway.

Put the 12 pounds on him and the physical profile probably looks more like Woods.

Different question, different player. I feel like when I watch London I never see him run past anyone and he really didn’t make explosive plays in college. Function of usage or is there a decent chance he’s just pretty slow and purely a possession guy?

When I hear the 'usage' excuse, I think back to Stephen Hill.

"Georgia doesn't use it's WRs".

Then he came into the NFL and did nothing.

I think college production matters.  It's not everything but I'm uncomfortable projecting a 1st round pick to produce more than they did in college because of system.

[derp]

9 minutes ago, nycdan said:

When I hear the 'usage' excuse, I think back to Stephen Hill.

"Georgia doesn't use it's WRs".

Then he came into the NFL and did nothing.

I think college production matters.  It's not everything but I'm uncomfortable projecting a 1st round pick to produce more than they did in college because of system.

It's tricky, because I think eight or nine times out of ten it falls the way you described and the last time or two you get a player who way outperforms their draft position. And London did produce, but not downfield. I agree with your point though and think London's lack of explosive plays in college is representative of who he is, and that leads to him being a bit of a mismatch for this Jets' team as constructed in my opinion. But I was curious for his take as he understands WR play far better than I do.

The other thing, and the thing with Hill, is that college production market share matters more than raw production. But, as Hill showed us, both play a role. More variance with the low raw production guys. But high raw low market share is risky.

[Lith]

3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

When I hear the 'usage' excuse, I think back to Stephen Hill.

"Georgia doesn't use it's WRs".

Then he came into the NFL and did nothing.

I think college production matters.  It's not everything but I'm uncomfortable projecting a 1st round pick to produce more than they did in college because of system.

Tech.  Georgia Tech. I am not going to shy away from admitting when a Dawg busts.  But I am not claiming other team's busts.  Hill was Georgia Tech.

[nycdan]

6 minutes ago, Lith said:

Tech.  Georgia Tech. I am not going to shy away from admitting when a Dawg busts.  But I am not claiming other team's busts.  Hill was Georgia Tech.

Well damn.

My bad!

[GangGreen Machine]

30 minutes ago, nycdan said:

When I hear the 'usage' excuse, I think back to Stephen Hill.

"Georgia doesn't use it's WRs".

Then he came into the NFL and did nothing.

I think college production matters.  It's not everything but I'm uncomfortable projecting a 1st round pick to produce more than they did in college because of system.

I would be more worried about Christian Watsons usage than London's. Watson screams Stephen Hill to me. I hope I'm wrong. 

[section314]

27 minutes ago, Lith said:

Tech.  Georgia Tech. I am not going to shy away from admitting when a Dawg busts.  But I am not claiming other team's busts.  Hill was Georgia Tech.

I’m shocked you can even say it/ write it without needing a drink.?

[Lith]

27 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Well damn.

My bad!

When I saw your comment, I assumed you were referring to George Pickens, who was limited by injury and usage in our offense.  If we don't go WR in the first, Pickens is there at 35 or 38, I would love to grab him there.

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Makes sense he cut for the 40 time, guess it’s a good idea for draft position. Definitely hope he plays more around that 195, that’s what he looked like to me anyway.

Put the 12 pounds on him and the physical profile probably looks more like Woods.

Different question, different player. I feel like when I watch London I never see him run past anyone and he really didn’t make explosive plays in college. Function of usage or is there a decent chance he’s just pretty slow and purely a possession guy?

it's a tough call, I'm very interested to see what he runs at a pro day (provided he's healthy enough to run by then).  I think there are some concerns about his actual speed and explosive numbers, but he does get open despite being a much bigger guy.  I think what makes him such an interesting prospect is his feel for coverage and body position when running routes despite his limitations with quickness, speed, and experience.  I think those are very very valuable traits to have considering he's what many consider a "green" prospect (one with very little experience). Projecting him further down the road is tantalizing because you see how good he is at the nuances already, once he gets more experience he could be a real problem for defenders in terms of out positioning them. 

I have to give him credit, @Paradis made a great comparison to Jimmy Graham and I think its a really unorthodox but true comp.  He's not going to blow guys away with speed or quickness but he'll know how to get open, shield defenders, and can sneak deep with the ability to set defenders up.  He did that in college and I think it can translate going forward. 

All that said, whenever you talk about lack of pure separation from a prospect there is inherent risk in their play at the next level. I just do not think its enough to warrant a massive slide down in draft position. 

 

By comparison lets discuss Burks.  Much of the hype around him coming into the predraft process by a lot of us was that while he is very raw as a prospect, he was going to display elite physical traits in speed and explosiveness.  I had heard people from his camp talking about the possibility of him running a 40 in the 4.2s.  He presented an extremely average athletic profile to along with an underdeveloped game.  His draft stock took a hit because of that since there wasnt as much that you could hang your hat on with him..  I still like burks, but I think it would be beneficial for him to play closer to 215, get his speed down a little bit, and then a lot of work on his route running.  He's a little more of a developmental prospects which we all kind of knew coming in, just now you cant just say he'll be an elite athlete at the position. 

[Beerfish]

Funny how every one is worried about WR usage and projection and are all happy to jump on the Travon Walker bandwagon at #4 overall.