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Sauce at 4 he won’t be there at 10


TinFoil
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5 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

I think a lot of people jumped on the Walker train last week. I’m leery of taking him at #4 though.
If I remember correctly during the combine, @Lith told us that Walker wasn’t a 3 down player at Georgia. He was replaced by another player on 3rd down who they considered a better pass rusher.

That worries me. 

This is true, and people are saying he will develop his pass rush. I am not betting pick #4 on that.

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Not a great comparison. It is hugely unlikely there is anyone close to the three EDGE you listed in this draft. 

And who does "Sauce" compare to?  This is the 4th pick in the draft.  Knowing that the  current 49ers regime never drafted a CB in the first 2-3 rounds , I just don't see the Jets doing it.  It doesn't fit what Saleh wants to do defensively.  He wants to pressure the QB rushing 4.  The edge rushers are deeper and more talented and more valuable in this draft than the CBs.  

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19 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

And who does "Sauce" compare to?  This is the 4th pick in the draft.  Knowing that the  current 49ers regime never drafted a CB in the first 2-3 rounds , I just don't see the Jets doing it.  It doesn't fit what Saleh wants to do defensively.  He wants to pressure the QB rushing 4.  The edge rushers are deeper and more talented and more valuable in this draft than the CBs.  

I did not say I wanted Gardner either. In fact I have never wanted the Jets to trade down more than this year. I don't love the value of anyone at 4 except maybe Hutchinson.

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12 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I understand that position, but I'll share some context/insight into my thinking too

  • much of the season we were on third and fourth string receivers while playing a rookie quarterback - those are not the players I expect to routinely take advantage of the imbalance in rules/officiating. This is why drafting WR's is so important - they have to be good enough to benefti/take advantage of this new officiating reality. 
  • I have a theory that 'shutdown coverage', just like 'blitz heavy defenses' (in the present day game, lets say past four years), can be effective vs rookie quarterbacks or teams without adequate skill position players - but they struggle against 'good' offenses. You do not want to blitz Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, & Herbert
  • The Bengals offense did not care about Jalen Ramsey - Chase and Higgins still did well... but the Bengals lost because of offensive line issues and the ridiculous 4 PI penalties in the red zone on one drive to benefit the Rams
  • The 49ers have a collection of who gives a F @ cornerback and went to the NFC championship (almost won it) because their defensive line is strong and their offense is potent (despite Jimmy G). 
  • The Ravens have had the best collection of corners for multiple years now - and they can't stop any 'good' team's offense. Sure they can shut down some sub .500 teams and look great. But put them up against anyone that has a top 10 offense and those corners mean nothing

Sorry this is a bit stream of consciousness. But I hope it gives more insight into my thinking. 

Definitely think these are fair points. I'm not advocating for NOT taking and Edge. I would love KT as our pick (regardless of whether he's a head case or not, let the coaches coach him, let the vets / leaders help him understand what the NFL is about). If KT is off the board, then my  thinking is that Sauce is prolly gone before 10, but there will prolly still be a good edge at 10.

You could go edge at 4, but looking at a few mocks, I'm not sure, if Hutch or KT are off the board at 4, another edge was in the top 10. If we go Sauce at 4, Edge at 10, I think we still land JJ or someone similar. We'll have managed to upgrade the D tremendously.

Then, in the second, pick whichever WR has fallen (expected to be some good options, but who knows), maybe a G or TE, in the third pick whichever of the G / TE you didn't pick up in the second, then trade your forth for Cooper! :)

(FYI - I don't see my initial response, so I'm not sure if I'm repeating myself, only your points, so I'm not sure if I'm repeating myself.)

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29 minutes ago, xJayce said:

Definitely think these are fair points. I'm not advocating for NOT taking and Edge. I would love KT as our pick (regardless of whether he's a head case or not, let the coaches coach him, let the vets / leaders help him understand what the NFL is about). If KT is off the board, then my  thinking is that Sauce is prolly gone before 10, but there will prolly still be a good edge at 10.

You could go edge at 4, but looking at a few mocks, I'm not sure, if Hutch or KT are off the board at 4, another edge was in the top 10. If we go Sauce at 4, Edge at 10, I think we still land JJ or someone similar. We'll have managed to upgrade the D tremendously.

Then, in the second, pick whichever WR has fallen (expected to be some good options, but who knows), maybe a G or TE, in the third pick whichever of the G / TE you didn't pick up in the second, then trade your forth for Cooper! :)

(FYI - I don't see my initial response, so I'm not sure if I'm repeating myself, only your points, so I'm not sure if I'm repeating myself.)

I hear ya on this. I think we agree on the positions of need but maybe value prospects and those positions differently. 

My dream scenario would be JJ II @ 4, Garrett Wilson/Christian Watson @ 10 and then something like Trey McBride & Zion Johnson at the top of round 2 - or maybe one of those stellar DT's there as well. But it's still early and we've got free agency ahead of us. 

And I don't disrespect Sauce as a prospect. I think he's great. I just also think it's unfortunate the way the game is officiated these days and don't want to fall in the trap of trying to swim against the current. 

Regardless of my feelings on it, I think it's likely we'll take Sauce. I just think teams still value cornerback as a premium, and there's no doubt he's a clean prospect that fits this scheme. 

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15 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

And who does "Sauce" compare to?  This is the 4th pick in the draft.  Knowing that the  current 49ers regime never drafted a CB in the first 2-3 rounds , I just don't see the Jets doing it.  It doesn't fit what Saleh wants to do defensively.  He wants to pressure the QB rushing 4.  The edge rushers are deeper and more talented and more valuable in this draft than the CBs.  

The legion of boom was full of late round guys too. Saleh, although not the lead voice coaching and drafting those guys, had a hand in their success. 

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12 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I hear ya on this. I think we agree on the positions of need but maybe value prospects and those positions differently. 

My dream scenario would be JJ II @ 4, Garrett Wilson/Christian Watson @ 10 and then something like Trey McBride & Zion Johnson at the top of round 2 - or maybe one of those stellar DT's there as well. But it's still early and we've got free agency ahead of us. 

And I don't disrespect Sauce as a prospect. I think he's great. I just also think it's unfortunate the way the game is officiated these days and don't want to fall in the trap of trying to swim against the current. 

Regardless of my feelings on it, I think it's likely we'll take Sauce. I just think teams still value cornerback as a premium, and there's no doubt he's a clean prospect that fits this scheme. 

And as you mentioned, there's FA coming up next week. If we sign Carlton Davis, then I think Sauce is completely out of the equation, and wouldn't be surprised if we go edge with #4.

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On 3/11/2022 at 10:56 AM, Lith said:

If you had asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have guessed that eitehr Adam Anderson or Nolan Smith would emerge from our D as first round edge prospects, not Travon Walker.  But Anderson is facing sexual assualt charges, and Smith is probably a day 2 pick and Walker is flying up draft boards.  I never saw that one coming a few months ago.

The most talented one of all is still in school - Jalen Carter

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  • 4 weeks later...
5 hours ago, TinFoil said:

Um again Ahmad Gardner at 4.JermainJohnson at 10.

Again ... you don't use a premium pick on a guy who's position has been castrated by the NFL. Thibs/Hutch @ 4 and Wilson or London @ 10.

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On 3/10/2022 at 9:56 PM, peebag said:

You can imagine how disappointed I was with Deez Nutz.  Dude could not carry the load.

at my age, I need to start carrying an extra pain of underwear. This post almost spelled disaster for me.

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1 hour ago, DonCorleone said:

at my age, I need to start carrying an extra pain of underwear. This post almost spelled disaster for me.

You know, "Pain of Underwear" would be great thrash metal band name!

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On 3/11/2022 at 4:06 PM, Green Ghost said:

So I’m seeing people make cogent arguments this morning for the Jets going edge, OL, WR, CB, which all harkens to my original point about this team being so devoid of talent. 
We have so many areas of need, I think it’s important to take the best player at each position rather than focusing on let’s say Edge, and take the third best.

Our defense is in way worse shape.  We have no DEs.  QW looks lost playing in a 4-3 and Shepherd sucks so DT isn’t much better.  LBs are mediocre at best and Jamarcus Russell could light up our secondary

 

 

On offense we already have a good Offensive Line, WRs are decent tho we need depth and RBs are fine

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On 3/10/2022 at 9:46 PM, TinFoil said:

I think the Sauce should be the pick at 4. He won’t be there at 10 in my opinion. 
thoughts?

Already declaring himself the best player in the draft. Would replace Revis and "The Prez" with his ego if nothing else.

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You are correct.

He’ll be long gone by 10.

Surtain and Horn both went.

Other than QB, EDGE and corner (and less so OT) are the premium positions where you really have to make use of top-10 draft capital when you have it.

Year to year, you can expect plenty of top talent at other positions (e.g. WR, S, iOL) to be available outside of the top 10.

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2 hours ago, Maxman said:

I still think this is the pick. Sauce at 4.

If it went Ahmad at 4 an Edge at 10 JJ would be my choice, would Christian Watson be a good choice at 35.

he will probably be gone by then. If Kayvon is sitting there at 4 I think they might go there.

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Ulbrich/Salehs defense doesn’t benefit from pass rush, it requires it. 
 

they don’t scheme the rush they rely on talent and rotation 

With what this draft is offering, Edge/WR has to be the focus 

give me a wide 9 and a big X baby

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On 3/10/2022 at 10:30 PM, Maxman said:

@AFJF and I had a conversation today and we both said the same thing. Sauce isn't going to be there at 10.  Taking him at 4 is looking like the pick.

Free agency shapes things but with so many needs, they aren't going to spend on a CB in free agency. 

Nor should they.  

Keep drafting CB's with potential in the mid-rounds while solidifying your pass rush with top draft picks, which makes your average to above-avg CB's a whole lot better. Present day NFL?  don't see the rationale for drafting a CB in the top 10 at all.

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5 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

Nor should they.  

Keep drafting CB's with potential in the mid-rounds while solidifying your pass rush with top draft picks, which makes your average to above-avg CB's a whole lot better. Present day NFL?  don't see the rationale for drafting a CB in the top 10 at all.

Rams won the Super Bowl with big pieces on defense.

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59 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

I could see the team going with Stingley over Sauce being Stingley is more of an balanced CB playing zone/man and the better of the two is off man coverage.

Jeebus...if the NYJ draft a CB at 4 or 10 who hasn't seen the field much the past 2 yrs I'd be apoplectic.  Personally wouldn't want a CB at either 4 or 10, but want no part of Stingley at this time /juncture.

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13 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Rams won the Super Bowl with big pieces on defense.

And trading for Stafford as QB.

I just feel the NFL draft needs to be positional value based as well as talent based...and the positional value is higher for DE, and even for WR...than for CB.  And it's going to get worse as the NFL adapts.

Always chuckle about sports using 'analytics' while evaluating players, yet little seems to be said about using analytics regarding the value of draft position in terms of positional value/cost.  The NFL is devaluing DB's as 'impact players' IMO.  Any good QB given enough time will beat your DB's OR quite probably throw a pass that will elicit a flag for PI etc.

The Rams had Donald when they traded for Jalen Ramsey, then traded for Von Miller later. Sauce with our DL isn't going to be an impact player...build the DL/pass rush first.  draft a #1 CB later.

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