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Round 1 vs Round 2 WRs


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1 minute ago, DirtyJersey said:

Steelers havent taken a wr in the 1st since Santonio in 06, somehow they keep coming up with quality at the position.  

A Hall of Fame QB has that effect.

Do we have a Hall of Fame QB?

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2 hours ago, DirtyJersey said:

Employ competent scouts and you should never need to spend a 1 on a wr.  Steelers havent taken a wr in the 1st since Santonio in 06, somehow they keep coming up with quality at the position.  AB, Sanders, Juju, Claypool, Washington

One could argue that until your scout/eval team has proven themselves to be compotent that the only place to take WRs is in the top 50.... Elijah Moore was the first obvious hit at WR since we selected Jerricho Cotchery in 1954

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23 minutes ago, DirtyJersey said:

We dont know yet.  That is why splurging for a #1 wr is dumb.  

Heck, we may already have a #1 in Moore. 

I have no words for how wrong I think this post is.

Congrats, I am rarely this speechless, lol.

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

What are you doing posting informative stuff like this @TokyoJetsFan?

Meeting us in Vegas next month to see if we go WR in Rd 1 or 2? 😬

lol would love to meet you brother, but alas, I must return to Japan at the end of this month.  They finally lifted the Covid ban. Back to watching games at 2 am or 5 am on Monday. Of course this is the year they decide to have the draft in Vegas. Sigh.

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So, the immediate implication here for the Jets seems to be do they draft a WR in Rd. 1, Rd. 2 or wait. 

Well, I think it would help to see these guys broken down by draft year. So we can see who was available and when they were taken. The Jets have two early 2nd round picks this year, so we can assume they CAN grab pretty much any WR who slides into Rd. 2. (Although a guy like Higgins slid out of Rd. 1 and was taken 33rd overall- Jets pick 35th this year). They also have x2 4th and x2 5th round picks, so we can assume they CAN grab a WR later on. 

IMO- and I think this is a widely held belief, it varies draft by draft. This draft in particular is weak at the top but quite deep at WR. Not only is there no clear cut top WR Prospect. There isn't a group of WRs who have shown enough that they deserve to be seriously considered in the top half of the 1st round of this draft. I mean, seriously, I would not be surprised to see the first WR go in the mid to late teens. 

With THAT in mind, the Jets should DEFINITELY wait and see if a top WR on their board falls to Rd. 2. Apparently the Jets like Burks (according to him, lol) but Olave would be a phenomenal fit if he fell to Rd. 2. 

As far as kicking the can and looking for a receiver later on in the draft, typically you have to have an eye on someone- you have to target someone who is not expected to be drafted until much later. I have no problem if the Jets did that- but its risky. They may not be the only ones with an eye on that prospect, they may end up having to move up. But theres a lot of talent that will be sitting there in Rds 3-5 (Pierce, Tolbert, Doubs, Ross, Ezukanma, Wan'Dale Robinson, Drummond, etc.)

 

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The thing is, most teams don't seem to realize this, which means we could draft all WRs and in 2 years trade them all for a ton of picks more than we got them for while giving them terrible contracts

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2 hours ago, DirtyJersey said:

A true #1 wr is a finishing piece, not a building block.  Throw a rock in a strip joint and yer likely to hit a 1000yd wr.  Dangle a 1st round pick and you can pick up someone's disgruntled 1200+ yd stud. 

Employ competent scouts and you should never need to spend a 1 on a wr.  Steelers havent taken a wr in the 1st since Santonio in 06, somehow they keep coming up with quality at the position.  AB, Sanders, Juju, Claypool, Washington

 

It worked well for the Bengals last season no?

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I have no words for how wrong I think this post is.

Congrats, I am rarely this speechless, lol.

I say this every time someone makes long term predictions about players after a handful of games.  It’s ridiculous to keep trashing players this early in their careers

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7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:
Quote

 

 

Quote
Quote

 

A Hall of Fame QB has that effect.

Do we have a Hall of Fame QB?

 

We don't know yet.  That is why splurging for a #1 wr is dumb.  

Heck, we may already have a #1 in Moore.

 

I have no words for how wrong I think this post is.

Congrats, I am rarely this speechless, lol.

 

I say this every time someone makes long term predictions about players after a handful of games.  

It’s ridiculous to keep trashing players this early in their careers

Sorry, who did I "trash" in this exchange?

Is asking if Wilson is the equal to Rothlisberger when discussing the Steelers good WR's "trashing" Wilson?

Is disagreeing that Moore is a #1 when I think he's an excellent #2/Slot guy "trashing" him?

Thanks.

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Sorry, who did I "trash" in this exchange?

Is asking if Wilson is the equal to Rothlisberger when discussing the Steelers good WR's "trashing" Wilson?

Is disagreeing that Moore is a #1 when I think he's an excellent #2/Slot guy "trashing" him?

Thanks.

Ok, trash was over the top.

Rothlisberger was hardly a HOF QB in his rookie year.  No one would basked this question about him at the time.  And he was playing on a stacked team.

How’d we get on to Moore?  Other than it fits your prediction style to claim you know what Moore will be.  He can’t be a 1?  Lol, yeah?  Most players you claim need to prove themselves to you ex spy for Moore & Wilson.  
Come on be consistent 

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Just now, Jet Nut said:

Ok, trash was over the top.

Rothlisberger was hardly a HOF QB in his rookie year.  No one would basked this question about him at the time.  And he was playing on a stacked team.

But it's not Big Ben's rookie year, we have his entire completed resume to evaluate, and he is a HOF QB.

So when discussing why the WR's in Pitt did well in his tenure, "because they played with a HOF QB" is a factual response.  

Now, you're correct, we only know what we've seen so far from Wilson. 

He was the lowest rated starting QB in the NFL.  Anything else looking forward is projection and speculation.

Could he be great in the future?  Sure.  . 

Will he be great?  We'll just have to wait and see. 

But for now, till he shows otherwise, he is what his record says he is, nothing more, nothing less. 

Just now, Jet Nut said:

How’d we get on to Moore?  Other than it fits your prediction style to claim you know what Moore will be.  He can’t be a 1?  Lol, yeah?  Most players you claim need to prove themselves to you ex spy for Moore & Wilson.  
Come on be consistent 

If you read the exchange you chose to quote, you'll see where and when Moore was referenced. 

I do not believe Moore is an NFL X-receiver, a #1 going against the other teams top CB every down, no. 

It's not about his talent, I think he's very talented. 

It's about the best use of his skillset, which I believe is in the slot as the #2/#3 option, paired with a #1 outside and a #2 outside.

P.S. I do not claim "I know".  I'm expressing an opinion.  

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3 hours ago, DirtyJersey said:

We dont know yet.  That is why splurging for a #1 wr is dumb.  

Heck, we may already have a #1 in Moore. 

It means nothing. Literally. And in the literal word of the word literally. Past results have nothing whatsoever to do with what the results will be from this draft. The draft is just odds. The likelihood of being a bust increases with every additional pick in the draft. There will be busts in the first and HOFers in the 7th. It's just odds. Just because 2nd rounders seem to have a similar hit rate to 1st rounders in the past does not apply to this group. It might, but avoiding a 1st rounder because there were a lot of succesfull 2nd rounders before is flat idiotic. 

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24 minutes ago, Warfish said:

But it's not Big Ben's rookie year, we have his entire completed resume to evaluate, and he is a HOF QB.

So when discussing why the WR's in Pitt did well in his tenure, "because they played with a HOF QB" is a factual response.  

Now, you're correct, we only know what we've seen so far from Wilson. 

He was the lowest rated starting QB in the NFL.  Anything else looking forward is projection and speculation.

Could he be great in the future?  Sure.  . 

Will he be great?  We'll just have to wait and see. 

But for now, till he shows otherwise, he is what his record says he is, nothing more, nothing less. 

The point still is on point.  Your question was Ben is a HOF QB, will Wilson.  I said who knows too early to tell.  
You can keep repeating that Wilson is the lowest ranked QB but he wasn’t, only if you go to ESPN and want to go with their QBR metric, the one no one goes by.  
AS I asked, we have wait and see about Wilson in the future but not Moore.  Moore you know is a #2 slot/WR.


 

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27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If you read the exchange you chose to quote, you'll see where and when Moore was referenced. 

I do not believe Moore is an NFL X-receiver, a #1 going against the other teams top CB every down, no. 

It's not about his talent, I think he's very talented. 

It's about the best use of his skillset, which I believe is in the slot as the #2/#3 option, paired with a #1 outside and a #2 outside.

P.S. I do not claim "I know".  I'm expressing an opinion.  

Yeah but I said nothing about Moore, nothing about him definitely being a 1.  
‘You don’t have to be an X WR to be a #1, also seems to me the Jets re pretty adamantly agains Moore playing in the slot, was lined up on the outside pretty much every play.

It’s also rare that a teams to CB switches sides of the field to cover the opponents top WR.  That’s a Revis thing that is hardly applicable to other CBs.  

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19 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The point still is on point.  Your question was Ben is a HOF QB, will Wilson.  I said who knows too early to tell.  

If it's too early to tell, and the early performance was objectively poor, then you cannot and should not manage the roster in a way that presumes he is.

19 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

You can keep repeating that Wilson is the lowest ranked QB but he wasn’t, only if you go to ESPN and want to go with their QBR metric, the one no one goes by.  

I didn't say "ranked" I said "Rated". 

Source:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm

Statistic:  Rate (i.e. Quarterback Rating)

Wilson finished last amongst qualifying Quarterbacks with a rating of 69.7, the only qualifying QB who finished below 70.0.

For QBR, Wilson finished 2nd to last at 28.2, ahead of Justin Fields at 26.4.

So you are incorrect.  Wilson did, in fact, finish 2021 as the lowest rated QB in the NFL.

19 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

AS I asked, we have wait and see about Wilson in the future but not Moore.  Moore you know is a #2 slot/WR.

I'll repeat what I said (and what you appear to have consciously choosen to ignore):

I do not claim "I know".  I'm expressing an opinion. 

Or a "best-use preference", if you prefer.  

What exactly are you arguing against here?  

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9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If it's too early to tell, and the early performance was objectively poor, then you cannot and should not manage the roster in a way that presumes he is.

I agree. its too early to judge a rookie QB

10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I didn't say "ranked" I said "Rated". 

Source:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm

Statistic:  Rate (i.e. Quarterback Rating)

Wilson finished last amongst qualifying Quarterbacks with a rating of 69.7, the only qualifying QB who finished below 70.0.

For QBR, Wilson finished 2nd to last at 28.2, ahead of Justin Fields at 26.4.

So you are incorrect.  Wilson did, in fact, finish 2021 as the lowest rated QB in the NFL.

By PFF?  Who cares, going by the old standard rankings, he finished ahead of Fields, just behind Lawrence. Point is it means little to nothing.  Wilson was on the worst team and had the most to come fro given he wasnt on OSU or Clemson facing their comp.  Id say being right there with the 2 QBs who did shouldnt be overlooked. 

 

13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I'll repeat what I said (and what you appear to have consciously choosen to ignore):

I do not claim "I know".  I'm expressing an opinion. 

Or a "best-use preference", if you prefer.  

What exactly are you arguing against here?  

I'm not arguing but you are splitting hairs.  Not saying you know, just an opinion?   Based on something you dont know?  Not ranked but rated?  Come on

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

By PFF?

Pro Football Reference.  Not Pro Football Focus.

Please read the posts you respond to before you respond.  It's just basic respect.

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Who cares, going by the old standard rankings, he finished ahead of Fields, just behind Lawrence.

Pro Football Reference is using the QB Rating system that has always been used. 

If you have another source, by all means cite it.  

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Point is it means little to nothing.

Then why did you feel the need to claim my cited/sourced statistic was incorrect, if it was so meaningless anyway?

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

I'm not arguing but you are splitting hairs.  Not saying you know, just an opinion?   Based on something you dont know?  Not ranked but rated?  Come on

Come on indeed.  

You don't read the posts you respond to.  You clearly don't understand what is being said.  You think PFR is PFF, that QB Rating is QBR, and all the while you don't bother to look up or cite publicly available stats to even confirm your claims.

I'm not going to waste my time and effort on exchanges like this.  Have a good evening Nut.

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9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Pro Football Reference.  Not Pro Football Focus.

Please read the posts you respond to before you respond.  It's just basic respect.

18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Who care either way.  No one other than Pro Football Reference uses their numbers to rank/rate QBs.  Give me a break Wirth basic respect for that mistake.  Seriously?

 

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Then why did you feel the need to claim my cited/sourced statistic was incorrect, if it was so meaningless anyway?

I'm saying as bunched up Lawrence, Wilson and Fields were it means nothing.  I know you live and die by the printed word, I dont.  I watch and think.  Fields was worse than Wilson, much worse

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You don't read the posts you respond to.  You clearly don't understand what is being said.  You think PFR is PFF, that QB Rating is QBR, and all the while you don't bother to look up or cite publicly available stats to even confirm your claims.

I'm not going to waste my time and effort on exchanges like this.  Have a good evening Nut.

One more time, who gives a F*ck if its PFR or PFF?  QBR isnt QB rating, one has been around forever and other was invented by ESPN a few years ago.  You need to heed your own advice.  

Again, I dont give a F what the numbers are,  I watch all the games, you read all the numbers and have one hell of a shltty history of picking QBs.  You can live by stats, pick your QBs and draft picks over PFR or PFF or whoever.  You are one nasty poster when someone disagrees with you.  Dont resend if you dont want to waste youre time.  Should have expected that same tired old response from you, ever tie someone doesnt agree with you thats where you wind up

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6 hours ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

Too lazy to see if this has been posted already (please nuke this thread if it has).  Thought this was interesting (even though he listed Mims in the article):

The Amari Cooper trade underscores a truth on the receiver position. That truth: It’s becoming a place where teams feel like they can cheat a little financially to get themselves in cap compliance. And the reason is there are good ones everywhere. I’d bet the Cowboys will get a deal done with Michael Gallup, their third receiver (before his injury) last year, at around $11 million per. That’d be a saving of $9 million per year compared to Cooper. Then, maybe they’ll find a way to bring back Cedrick Wilson. If not? It really shouldn’t be that difficult to go get another receiver. They found Gallup in the fourth round and Wilson in the sixth round of the same draft. And while that might be a little bit of anomaly, it’s also indicative of how deep the position seems to be every year. Just look at these two groups …

Group 1: Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Hollywood Brown. N’Keal Harry, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell

Group 2: Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, D’Wayne Eskridge. Tutu Atwell, Terrace Marshall Jr., Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., K.J. Hamler, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, D.J. Chark, Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Taywan Taylor, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd.

The difference in the two groups? Not much, right? The first is first-rounders from 2016 to ’21 and the second is second-rounders over the same time. And that’s not accounting for third-rounders through that stretch like Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay and Gabriel Davis. Because of 7-on-7, and wide-open offenses in both college and high school, a lot of the best athletes are playing receiver, which is creating a golden age at the position. So if you’ve got one that’s too expensive, like Dallas did? Chances are you’ll have an easier time replacing him than you might an edge rusher, corner or left tackle.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/03/14/mmqb-russell-wilson-trade-negotiations-tom-brady-unretires

 

By this logic we should wait till the 6th round to draft a QB because Tom Brady did well?

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