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Imagine if we draft Thibs and Jordan Davis?


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3 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Nope. Thib over Walker IMO.

Listen, if the rumors about Thib. having bad work ethic are true and he ends up being a bust, sure i'll eat my words. But right now, its all just rumors. I have absolutely no reason to put Walker ahead of Thib. as a pass rusher. Thib is simply the better pass rush prospect. He is more explosive, he has more moves, he's better off the edge, he has the better resume, to me (even though they are different- KT has better tape to boot).

Don't get me wrong, Walker is great. He blew up the combine and his stock soared. He played on a championship defense. He's versatile. An athletic freak. But Thib is just a better prospect and I'm not taking Walker or Thib. unless there are some real red flags I'm certain of. 

 

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57 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I did a simulation and this is what I got with my first 4 picks. No trades. For the record- I think we can move down from 10 and still get Davis if we were targeting him. 

I think we can still get a nice LB prospect in Rd. 3 and address other needs later on so this is really not bad. We get McBride (a fan favorite) and Watson- a very solid WR prospect who is almost certain to slide to Rd. 2. 

4. Kayvon Thibodeaux- Edge

10. Jordan Davis- DT

35. Trey McBride- TE

38. Christian Watson- WR

Nice, but what was your plan B at receiver if Watson wasn't there at 38? That's my worry with passing on a receiver at 10. We can't assume a guy we like will still be there when we are up next. 

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57 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I did a simulation and this is what I got with my first 4 picks. No trades. For the record- I think we can move down from 10 and still get Davis if we were targeting him. 

I think we can still get a nice LB prospect in Rd. 3 and address other needs later on so this is really not bad. We get McBride (a fan favorite) and Watson- a very solid WR prospect who is almost certain to slide to Rd. 2. 

4. Kayvon Thibodeaux- Edge

10. Jordan Davis- DT

35. Trey McBride- TE

38. Christian Watson- WR

I love picks 10, 35 and 38...

The Thibodeaux move is the problem. Everyone we've signed so far is high character and loves football.

Even if Thibs isn't the 'cancer' that he's made out to be (and dude genuinely seems like such a me-first douchebag), what if he's just another Becton? A player that's unlikely to hit his massive potential and there are always 'excuses'.

But as to the wider point of this thread, I think Jordan Davis is worth the gamble @ 10 and the truth is, there simply isn't a WR that's a better prospect than he is @ that pick.

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2 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

I wouldn’t mind going defense twice but I’d prefer a LB or DB at 10

I think that with the carpenter type free agent signings, they are drafting a stud DB.  Thibs 4 and whoever falls to them at 10 or Hamilton/Gardner at 4 and best pass rusher on the board at 10.

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but our defense is improved from last year. 

we had nobody but PS guys at Saftey last year and now we have Joyner and the guy we just signed. Lawso is coming back and we just signed a CB to replace Echols. thats an improvement right there.

and were not ignoring defense in the draft. we should get an Edge at 4 or 10. then we need to get a WR at the other one.

JD had only one chance to pick the best at a position, last year when he picked the 1st OG in the draft in AVT and i think he hit a home run. lets give him that chance again at WR instead of pushing it to rd 2 and having him pick whats left after 10 already got drafted. then he can do it again at 35 with TEs. after that at 38 we can take a LB.

 

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28 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

very true - and this year even more so than past years the receivers taken in round one or two from what the 'experts' are saying, may be style preference since ability levels are so close. The top receiver taken in the draft could very well go in the second round as have so many times in the past. If we go Thibs/DT or Sauce/Edge I could see us going WR/TE for the two second round picks. I would be fine with that. Maybe even move up a bit for the WR. Jets will not take a LB with a premium pick IMO - not valued as much. 

. Jets will not take a LB with a premium pick IMO

 

I hope you are right!!

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31 minutes ago, football guy said:

Jordan Davis is in that Vita Vea (selected #12 overall), Dontari Poe (#11), BJ Raji (#9 overall), Haloti Ngata (#12 overall) tier of super-sized, super-freaky interior DL that were used in incredible ways in college that kind of suppressed their statistical output, but ultimately end up going very high on draft day due to their freakish abilities. Teams differ whether they prefer athleticism/speed or size/strength, but Mike McDaniel put it best when speaking about how the 49ers typically select smaller offensive lineman due to the zone-blocking scheme: 

 

This doesn't depart from how many in the NFL view things. With Jordan Davis, you're getting a guy that can play be an elite run defender/gap eater at the 0-1-2-3 techs, but also provides pass rushing upside from those spots plus the 4-5 tech spots. Not to mention, he provides the upside and versatility to play on every down (55-70% of the overall snaps). When you have his size and his skills, teams are going to value you. #10 overall is the sweet spot for him, and it wouldn't surprise me if he went earlier. It wouldn't even shock me if Houston took him at #3.

So to provide a response to the original thread title, I think selecting Thibs (or another EDGE) at #4 and Davis at #10 is actually very realistic. 

Especially considering how bad the run d was.  They couldn’t get off the field.

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Couldn't agree more. Depth at WR in the draft. I would be 100% ok with us taking a WR late in the first (trade up) or w/ a 35 or 38. I prefer 35.

 

We have heard a few things from JD/RS over and over again. Building through the trenches. They will be spending premium draft assets on the DL and OL every year. That's the model. Not saying always in the first round of the draft... but its pretty clear they prioritize trench play, and their actions (JD specifically) are consistent with that. I believe that joe is very methodical about his approach to team building. I think he was given the reigns to rebuild this franchise using a "long term approach" to handing player contracts, FA, drafting. I don't think they are content with what we have and will continue to add these position group. 

 

But alas, i am a fan. I want a WR at 10. And i am not saying we wont take one at 10... but it won't surprise me if OPs hypothetical comes to fruition.

 

This year is gonna be fun.

 

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1 hour ago, Larz said:

You know the impact of keeping guards off of the linebackers, right?

Saleh like to rotate 8 guys. Q played like 50% of the snaps last year. 
 

Davis is a real possibility 

Yes I do.  I also saw 3rd down after 3rd down go for huge chunks on simple swing passes that had nothing to do with the interior lines on either side of the ball...

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1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

Jordan Davis also provides no pass rush. He also only played 40% of plays this season. The Alabama game plan was to keep Jordan Davis in the game for longer stretches of time. Davis is a freak but his size is on the wrong end of diminishing returns. 

I’d still take him if he fell to 34.

Yeah, the snap percentage is concerning. He’s really complicated to evaluate because of that and the lack of pass rush, but also he’s almost a Calvin Johnson level freak athlete. It’s been around that long since someone this crazy has come into the draft.

Another negative, he’s had issues with weight. I saw an interview where he talks about how he likes that there are organic Swedish fish because he doesn’t feel so bad about eating them. I don’t know if Douglas will be comfortable going down that road again.

There’s a point in the draft you roll the dice, as you said 34 would be fine, but I don’t think it’s ten.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

Nope. Thib over Walker IMO.

Listen, if the rumors about Thib. having bad work ethic are true and he ends up being a bust, sure i'll eat my words. But right now, its all just rumors. I have absolutely no reason to put Walker ahead of Thib. as a pass rusher. Thib is simply the better pass rush prospect. He is more explosive, he has more moves, he's better off the edge, he has the better resume, to me (even though they are different- KT has better tape to boot).

Don't get me wrong, Walker is great. He blew up the combine and his stock soared. He played on a championship defense. He's versatile. An athletic freak. But Thib is just a better prospect and I'm not taking Walker or Thib. unless there are some real red flags I'm certain of. 

That’s your take and you’re absolutely entitled, but NFL teams are going to have more information than you on these guys. If that information jives with the prevailing opinion we see from guys who talk to NFL teams and report on it for a living, then he may slide.

More importantly, the GM whose first opening stanza selection is having his commitment to the sport questioned and coach who talks about how there’s a difference between guys who love football and like what it brings them may not want to roll the dice with the 4th pick in the draft. I think that’s what we’re projecting if here more than whether any of us think the risk reward is worth it.

And the other side of things where I’m dead wrong and they love the person is absolutely possible, but given everything they’ve said and what all the smoke around Thibodeaux is it just really doesn’t seem like they’re going to take him at 4.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

In that scenario, would the Jets go WR in Round 2, or even later?  Or hell, not at all?

Who would you see the Jets getting at WR then, because Davis/Moore/Berrios/Mims doesn't feel like it's adequate without another top-end piece.

I have this fear that somehow we do not address WR in the first round or even second, and wind up resigning Keelan Cole and have the same WR corps going into next year. So many Jets fans are still so biased towards defense that they would sort of throw Wilson under the bus like we did with Sam foscusing on the defense.

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3 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I have this fear that somehow we do not address WR in the first round or even second, and wind up resigning Keelan Cole and have the same WR corps going into next year. So many Jets fans are still so biased towards defense that they would sort of throw Wilson under the bus like we did with Sam foscusing on the defense.

It's my fear as well, another young QB floundering in part due to a lack of supporting talent.

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All I’m saying is give me a defensive line of Carl Lawson, Quinnen, Jordan Davis, Thibs and JFM and watch these guys create havoc on opposing offensive lines and QBs. 130 lb Tua would get killed with these monsters coming after him 

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If the Jets did that, this D would have insane potential. Couple that with the OL that's been put together with Michael Carter and we may have a Rex Ryan style football team.

The plan would get so bashed... but having the strongest OL and DL in the AFC East is not the worst thing to have

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4 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

The plan would get so bashed... but having the strongest OL and DL in the AFC East is not the worst thing to have

bashing a plan like that would be plain ole stupid... Nothing works in the NFL if you don't have TRENCHES. OL pushes around the DL, or the DL is fast enough to get around an OL... It's KISS

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

Jordan Davis is in that Vita Vea (selected #12 overall), Dontari Poe (#11), BJ Raji (#9 overall), Haloti Ngata (#12 overall) tier of super-sized, super-freaky interior DL that were used in incredible ways in college that kind of suppressed their statistical output, but ultimately end up going very high on draft day due to their freakish abilities. Teams differ whether they prefer athleticism/speed or size/strength, but Mike McDaniel put it best when speaking about how the 49ers typically select smaller offensive lineman due to the zone-blocking scheme: 

 

This doesn't depart from how many in the NFL view things. With Jordan Davis, you're getting a guy that can play be an elite run defender/gap eater at the 0-1-2-3 techs, but also provides pass rushing upside from those spots plus the 4-5 tech spots. Not to mention, he provides the upside and versatility to play on every down (55-70% of the overall snaps). When you have his size and his skills, teams are going to value you. #10 overall is the sweet spot for him, and it wouldn't surprise me if he went earlier. It wouldn't even shock me if Houston took him at #3.

So to provide a response to the original thread title, I think selecting Thibs (or another EDGE) at #4 and Davis at #10 is actually very realistic. 

Do u think we are done in FA 

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This should not be a stretch. Defense in the NFL is all about getting pressure on the QB. The great pass rushers are at such a premium in free agency that if a team doesn't want to break the bank, it needs to get them in the draft. We got the QB, we're okay (not great) on the line, but lineman are easier to get in free agency than legitimate guys who can get after the QB. It makes sense to prioritize QB wreckers in the draft. And this draft is the draft to get qb pressure guys.

I think taking these two at 4 and 10 makes a ton of sense.

We can get o linemen and WRs other ways.

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2 hours ago, K_O_Brien said:

Nice, but what was your plan B at receiver if Watson wasn't there at 38? That's my worry with passing on a receiver at 10. We can't assume a guy we like will still be there when we are up next. 

It was just a mock I ran but in my simulation guys like Pierce, Pickens, Metchie, Doubs, Tolbert and a slew of other WRs were still on the board. Olave just went a few picks ahead of 35. 

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I’m not gonna lie, I would be pretty stoked with Thibs at 4 and Davis at 10. The potential of both of the DL and the OL would be pretty great. Then draft offense in the 2nd, and fill in from there. The team still won’t be complete, but it could be pretty fun to watch… as long as Zach can throw and receivers can catch. 

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Based on what we've done in FA so far, and re-signing key players like Berrios, I think we could go OT and DT with #4 and 10.  Davis is certainly in play.  JD's priority as stated as been build the team through the trenches!

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If the WR class is more deep into day 2 (or at least round 2) than it is heavy up top, without this night & day dropoff, then it may end up building the better team. As much as I’ve wanted them to go DE/WR at 4/10, ultimately the goal is to end up with a good, starting WR (or great instead of good, if there’s one to be had). But if the Rams still had a 1st round pick in 2017 maybe they’d have used it on Corey Davis…or John Ross. Instead, being without a 1st rounder is perhaps why they got Kupp at #69. Other 3rd round WRs that draft included Godwin and Golladay. Of course Macc took ArDarius Stewart around there, and followed him up with Chad Hansen, 4 picks ahead of Kittle, when the Jets were also TE hunting around there.

A team dead-set on drafting the top-rated WR and the top-rated TE in that class, and had the picks to do so, it’d have ended up using a pair of 1s on Corey Davis and OJ Howard, while the game’s best WR and TE went later in the draft.

Same 2017 draft I recall safety being like 20 prospects deep or something. The crazy trade Douglas later got back for Adams notwithstanding, that’s the time to take someone else early and work the draft class’s value. If there are about 10+ really good safety prospects, you don’t rush out to draft one at #6 overall. Likewise, if there are several good WRs but there isn’t that one omgomgomg like a Julio or a Chase type, then as much as I’d like to lock in a WR early the smarter play may be to take one at the top of round 2 (or even move back into the bottom of round 1 if we’re getting antsy, which would have a 5th yr option as an ancillary benefit, too), while landing a different player at #10 that has a much steeper dropoff by round 2.

Crazy to think that draft had Mahomes, Kamara, Kupp, and Kittle, and we were in a position to take all 4 of them (and more, including a serious or star safety or two). Worse still, they were all glaring need positions for the Jets at that time. Not to derail this back into a Maccagnan thing, but holy hell that guy was franchise poison. 

I’ll probably flip-flop back & forth on this over the next month, but just a thought. 

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19 hours ago, Warfish said:

In that scenario, would the Jets go WR in Round 2, or even later?  Or hell, not at all?

Who would you see the Jets getting at WR then, because Davis/Moore/Berrios/Mims doesn't feel like it's adequate without another top-end piece.

The 49ers are a prolific offense and they don’t have a traditional WR1.  We run the same offense.  (And i am not comparing players, so hopefully we can avoid predictable responses from other posters).  We do need another WR, but they may be content with developing a player we draft later.  

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18 hours ago, Warfish said:

In that scenario, would the Jets go WR in Round 2, or even later?  Or hell, not at all?

Who would you see the Jets getting at WR then, because Davis/Moore/Berrios/Mims doesn't feel like it's adequate without another top-end piece.

There's also the longer term view to consider. I keep reading people saying here that rookie WRs can take a year or two to develop - but if we never draft and develop them we'll be saying the same thing every year and never improving.

2022 is not our "make or break" year; we need to be looking at it as a year of progress towards the longer term goal. If we neglect WR in the draft then we're banking on Moore being fantastic AND making some sort of big trade / FA signing next offseason. 

IMHO we need to draft a real prospect this year - even if we sign a FA on a 1-2 year sort of deal. If we don't develop our own we'll be constantly looking for other teams cast offs ... and we've seen how sparse those are this year.

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17 hours ago, Warfish said:

By fixing the Offense, scoring 31 points a game, and realizing that the Defense isn't that important, relatively speaking.

The jets have a bottom 2 roster talent wise.  If BPA is defense then draft BPA our defense last season was the worst I’ve ever seen

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8 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

The 49ers are a prolific offense and they don’t have a traditional WR1.  We run the same offense.  (And i am not comparing players, so hopefully we can avoid predictable responses from other posters).  We do need another WR, but they may he content with developing a player we draft later.  

The patriots only managed to win 6 Super Bowls relatively recently with no real #1 WR

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8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Crazy to think that draft had Mahomes, Kamara, Kupp, and Kittle, and we were in a position to take all 4 of them (and more, including a serious or star safety or two). Worse still, they were all glaring need positions for the Jets at that time. Not to derail this back into a Maccagnan thing, but holy hell that guy was franchise poison. 

That would've gone down as the GOAT draft class (better than the Steelers in 1974).  Imagine that distinction belonging to the Jets?!  And to Macc?!

 

https://steelersnow.com/on-this-day-steelers-secured-legendary-1974-nfl-draft-class/

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My hunch right now is that we're going DL at #4 (and I think it will be someone other than Thibs, even though I'm guessing he'll be available) and we're going to trade back from #10.

I still hope we take a TE in this draft, despite signing 2 of them.  Reading some very positive things about this TE draft class.  Hopefully we get the right one.

Btw, it's going to be painful to see some names that I think would really help this franchise go to some other teams. Obviously we can't draft 'em all.  

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16 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

My hunch right now is that we're going DL at #4 (and I think it will be someone other than Thibs, even though I'm guessing he'll be available) and we're going to trade back from #10.

I still hope we take a TE in this draft, despite signing 2 of them.  Reading some very positive things about this TE draft class.  Hopefully we get the right one.

Btw, it's going to be painful to see some names that I think would really help this franchise go to some other teams. Obviously we can't draft 'em all.  

I too want a TE draft pick ... like with so many other positions we have to draft and develop our own so as not to become reliant on short term FA fixes every year. Drafting has to lay the foundation for many years to come, not just the 2022 season.

As things stand, WR is an essential, TE and RB should definitely be in the mix but don't need to be forced, OL depth (a future OT especially) is a must. 

 

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