Jets sign TE Conklin

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Again, you're just isolating 1 season and extrapolating that as the norm every year in the past & future. Many of the best WRs are still in their prime production years at 29, 30, and some even beyond. Depends on the individual, and depends on the reasons why they get less productive.

If it's a player who turns 29 in August, and there are just 2 guaranteed seasons, then it'd be inaccurate to say a WR is generically "over the hill" -- depends on the guy. A lot of the reason for many of them is they just lose the fire to put in all they can to be just as great as they were, now that their final payday is guaranteed. Even more so if they go to a team with no serious SB chances. For some, sure it can be that cumulative injuries. Others cashed in even if it meant going to a team where their numbers won't be the same, because better teams with better QBs feel they can get by just fine with the next guy up, letting a bigger name vet get paid elsewhere. 

Regardless, you're not signing a trend or an average; you're signing a person. Also there's no requirement that the team goes through no changes. If they sign a WR's 29+30 years and then they let him go as a drafted WR starts emerging, that's not a flawed outcome. Certainly not when you're trying to get immediate help for a QB who's struggled so much as a rookie. 

So it depends on the player.

• I'd love it if we brought in someone who had Julio Jones's age 29+30 seasons of ~1700 and 1400 yards. Even his age-31 season, if it wasn't cut in half by injury, on a per-game/snap basis he was on pace for 1500 yards again in the (full) games he did play.
• Fitz was a ~1200-yard WR into his age 32-34 seasons.
• Antonio Brown was great until he went mental, not because his body suddenly gave out. Even missing 2+ games he still led the league in rec yards at 29 and then had a 1300-yd/15-TD season at 30. 
• You mentioned Marshall tapering off, as everyone eventually does, but what you conspicuously left out is his best season here was at age 31, not 28. 

Some of the special ones are still good. Some aren't, and frankly few are that special in the first place. But there's no rule that says receivers are past their prime at 29 when plenty are still in it. And anyway, there's no need to guarantee 3 seasons or more to a guy that age. 

My own reluctance with someone like Robinson was his production this past season, not because of his age in and of itself. It would hardly shock the world if he had another ~1200-yard season this year. It'd also shock no one if he finished with half that. Depends on the player, and also it depends where he ends up.

Robinson just signed with the Rams, which is the perfect spot for him - a team with a closing window and an immediate win now approach.  

[Paradis]

7 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

This notion that the Jets are all of sudden out of the TE market in the draft because Uzomah and Conklin are here is kinda shortsighted.   It’s a pretty good TE class and there is still a need for an athletic move TE.  

[derp]

50 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/personnel-groupings/offense/offensive-personnel-grouping-frequency-2021/

San Francisco used 11 Personnel 48% of the time. They used 12 personnel only 10% of the time. 

They ran 21 personnel 34% of the time but much of that was stealth 11 personnel with Deebo Samuel initially lining up at running back.

So even SF really has 11 personnel as their core alignment. If we say that 30% of 21 personnel became 11 after the snap then SF was running 11 like 58% of the time (which actually aligns with the Jets pure percentage at running 11) 

Now on your side of the argument, they essentially ran almost no plays without at least 1 TE in the mix.  So no 4 or 5 wide pretty much ever. Side note that I personally hate 5 wide.

The Jets for comparison ran 11 61% of the time, and despite not having TEs actually ran 12 personnel more than SF at 20%. The biggest difference is we ran 21 only 5% but ran 10 personnel (4 wide) 8% of the time. I thought the Jets ran 10 a lot more than that actually. Seemed Zach had 4 WR alignments pretty often on 3rd down but as we see perceptions are not necessarily reality.

But the fact remains that even for SF pure 11 is half of their offensive snaps and 21 was really disguised 11 for the most part.

The Jets need to build around 11 personnel. It IS their core.

Now having said all of this there is no question that 11 personnel is slightly less emphasized in the "Shanahan" system. The Rams ran it 86% of the time! Cincinnati, Pittsburgh Washington and the Bills were all over 70% as well. with TB and JAX just below 70%

The above is why someone like Burks is so attractive as a scheme fit to the Jets it would allow them to run that 21 personnel package which is really difficult to defend especially in hurry up. 

 

I think we’re aware of the same numbers but are interpreting them differently. A 48% snap ratio in 11 personnel is tied for the sixth lowest in the league. Of the teams lower or tied - Baltimore, Minnesota, and New Orleans all had three or more wide receivers on the field at a higher rate than SF because they ran other 3WR or 4WR sets at a higher rate - SF only had 5 snaps in 3/4 WR packages outside 11 personnel.

Obviously 48% is a proper chunk of snaps, but it leaves the third receiver spending about half the snaps off the field (depending on how they rotate) which is also a lot of snaps to not have the guy on the field. Accordingly, I don’t think they’re going to try to have three starting caliber receivers the same way that say the Rams do when that third receiver is on the field every snap.

It would be telling to understand how often the 49ers packages had Samuel in the backfield. They get Juszczyk on the field a lot. Also had tons of injuries in their backfield and Kittle missed time.

In terms of how they prioritize players, Juszczyk had more receiving yards than their third leading receiver - Jennings. The 49ers don’t have a third starter at WR3, it’s a part time player. The heavy investments are in Samuel and Aiyuk.

I’m not saying the Jets punt completely on WR, but Conklin and Uzomah are getting paid like heavy snap guys after the OC tried running a lot of 12 personnel last year, and the Shanahan offense doesn’t run three receiver stuff as heavily as the rest of the league to the point that the third receiver is nearly an every down guy. It’s a nice spot for a guy to get some snaps and develop, Burks or Christian Watkins could fit the bill, but I don’t think they’re looking for an every down guy this year. Especially paying Berrios decent money. Roughly half the snaps I think is what’s on the table for an addition - unless they outplay Davis. Which is certainly possible and would be a win, but I don’t think they’re going to expect that from a draft pick.

[Maynard13]

15 hours ago, Untouchable said:

My guess is the first four picks will be some combination of EDGE, WR, IDL and OL/CB.

But it sure as hell won’t include McBride or any other TE.

This fascination that so many Jets fans have developed with McBride is just weird at this point.

Deepest TE class in recent memory, and even after dishing out 3 years, $24 million for Uzomah and 3 years, $21 million for Conklin…they’re still determined to spend a Top 38 pick on this guy…

Plus we still have Yeboah as a developmental TE.

Maybe the Jets take a dude like Cade Otton or somebody if they’re still hanging around in the 4th round, but we have waaaaay more pressing needs than TE at the moment.

No way McBride is now in the picture. JD obviously feels other positions are more important with those first 4 beauties than TE. Edge? DEFINITELY. Would he even trade up to get Thibs or Hutch? Woooooa. CB? Nah. Saleh gets JD to draft cb’s later but I’d love to get Sauce but not looking like it’s their modus operandi.  WR? Hmmm get Zach a speedster? LB? Lloyd or Dean are A1/A2. Can’t go wrong with either.

Back to TE. Charlie Kolar is a sleeper - 5th round and totally underrated in this draft.  

But I like the focus on IDL. The Indy game last year was beyond embarrassing. Next year DL looks like Lawson, JFM, QW, Edge (draft).

We need a run stuffer to fortify the line. 

 

[Untouchable]

8 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

No way McBride is now in the picture. JD obviously feels other positions are more important with those first 4 beauties than TE. Edge? DEFINITELY. Would he even trade up to get Thibs or Hutch? Woooooa. CB? Nah. Saleh gets JD to draft cb’s later but I’d love to get Sauce but not looking like it’s their modus operandi.  WR? Hmmm get Zach a speedster? LB? Lloyd or Dean are A1/A2. Can’t go wrong with either.

Back to TE. Charlie Kolar is a sleeper - 5th round and totally underrated in this draft.  

But I like the focus on IDL. The Indy game last year was beyond embarrassing. Next year DL looks like Lawson, JFM, QW, Edge (draft).

We need a run stuffer to fortify the line. 

 

I honestly love the idea of going after Fletcher Cox.

A DL of him and Quinnen in the middle, Lawson and Thibodeaux/Walker on the ends with dudes like JFM, Martin, Huff, etc rotating in sounds awesome.

I know a lot of people have a stigma against interior DL as Jets fans in recent years (and I’ve been one of them), but a strong, deep DL really is the life blood of Saleh’s scheme.

I’d love to see us for the first time in forever consistently make QB’s piss their pants and wreck opposing rushing attacks.

[JetBlue]

22 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

It’s a deep TE class, as I said the other day. Rookie TEs have a tough transition. So, we could go TE in 2, this just depressurization the need for them to deliver immediately.

This offense centers on the TE. It’s good to invest there. I wouldn’t see it as redundant.

Jelani Woods, Cole Turner, Charlie Kolar, Jake Ferguson are all guys I would be looking at in the 4-5 rounds.  Don't forget we still a developmental TE in Kenny Yeboah who looked decent in limited action at the end of the year.  You think he would a improve after a full year in the system. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

2 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

I honestly love the idea of going after Fletcher Cox.

A DL of him and Quinnen in the middle, Lawson and Thibodeaux/Walker on the ends with dudes like JFM, Martin, Huff, etc rotating in sounds awesome.

I know a lot of people have a stigma against interior DL as Jets fans in recent years (and I’ve been one of them), but a strong, deep DL really is the life blood of Saleh’s scheme.

I’d love to see us for the first time in forever consistently make QB’s piss their pants and wreck opposing rushing attacks.

If he’s serious about leaving Philly(And doesn’t need to go to a contender) I think we’d have a chance! Mainly because he gets to stay close by and him and Quinnen are pretty close too. 
 

Hell give me Wagner too. Give me all the seasoned vets on defense. 

[Maynard13]

13 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

I honestly love the idea of going after Fletcher Cox.

A DL of him and Quinnen in the middle, Lawson and Thibodeaux/Walker on the ends with dudes like JFM, Martin, Huff, etc rotating in sounds awesome.

I know a lot of people have a stigma against interior DL as Jets fans in recent years (and I’ve been one of them), but a strong, deep DL really is the life blood of Saleh’s scheme.

I’d love to see us for the first time in forever consistently make QB’s piss their pants and wreck opposing rushing attacks.

JD has addressed a lot already: CB, TE, QB, G, S, Edge. He needs a big fatty in the middle for the D. Fox would be IDEAL!

[Maynard13]

11 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

If he’s serious about leaving Philly(And doesn’t need to go to a contender) I think we’d have a chance! Mainly because he gets to stay close by and him and Quinnen are pretty close too. 
 

Hell give me Wagner too. Give me all the seasoned vets on defense. 

And Gilmore. And Robinson. And Robbie. 

[Jet Nut]

10 hours ago, Nixhead said:

I'm not impressed with Conklin. Cant break tackles. No apparent speed. Consistently comes up short of a 1st down on a lot of his catches. Not much power. Looks like he can catch though. Thats the difference maker.

Where did you find a stat line that said he consistently came up short on 1st down catches?  On 3rd or 4th downs, or on 1st and 2nd? 

Id be curious to see that in actual numbers

[Untouchable]

16 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Jelani Woods, Cole Turner, Charlie Kolar, Jake Ferguson are all guys I would be looking at in the 4-5 rounds.  Don't forget we still a developmental TE in Kenny Yeboah who looked decent in limited action at the end of the year.  You think he would a improve after a full year in the system. 

Cade Otton, too.

Though I think he ultimately ends up going in that early-mid 3rd round range similar to a guy like Ruckert.

He may be the most well rounded TE in the draft next to McBride.

[JohnnyLV]

3 hours ago, derp said:

I think we’re aware of the same numbers but are interpreting them differently. A 48% snap ratio in 11 personnel is tied for the sixth lowest in the league. Of the teams lower or tied - Baltimore, Minnesota, and New Orleans all had three or more wide receivers on the field at a higher rate than SF because they ran other 3WR or 4WR sets at a higher rate - SF only had 5 snaps in 3/4 WR packages outside 11 personnel.

Obviously 48% is a proper chunk of snaps, but it leaves the third receiver spending about half the snaps off the field (depending on how they rotate) which is also a lot of snaps to not have the guy on the field. Accordingly, I don’t think they’re going to try to have three starting caliber receivers the same way that say the Rams do when that third receiver is on the field every snap.

It would be telling to understand how often the 49ers packages had Samuel in the backfield. They get Juszczyk on the field a lot. Also had tons of injuries in their backfield and Kittle missed time.

In terms of how they prioritize players, Juszczyk had more receiving yards than their third leading receiver - Jennings. The 49ers don’t have a third starter at WR3, it’s a part time player. The heavy investments are in Samuel and Aiyuk.

I’m not saying the Jets punt completely on WR, but Conklin and Uzomah are getting paid like heavy snap guys after the OC tried running a lot of 12 personnel last year, and the Shanahan offense doesn’t run three receiver stuff as heavily as the rest of the league to the point that the third receiver is nearly an every down guy. It’s a nice spot for a guy to get some snaps and develop, Burks or Christian Watkins could fit the bill, but I don’t think they’re looking for an every down guy this year. Especially paying Berrios decent money. Roughly half the snaps I think is what’s on the table for an addition - unless they outplay Davis. Which is certainly possible and would be a win, but I don’t think they’re going to expect that from a draft pick.

Like I said in my post I think the numbers are a bit deceptive because in some of the 21 when Samuel is in it is basically 11. I estimated 30% and that would put SF more around 60% 11

[derp]

4 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Like I said in my post I think the numbers are a bit deceptive because in some of the 21 when Samuel is in it is basically 11. I estimated 30% and that would put SF more around 60% 11

Yup, as I addressed we really don’t know how often they had Deebo on the field and they had injury issues at RB. Jets won’t have a WR they can use like Samuel in that fashion.

The prior year, before they started using Samuel in the backfield so much and when LaFleur was still there it was 44% 11 personnel.

And even if you give it 60%, that’s not high usage for a third receiver.

Also two important things to reiterate 1) the 49ers did not have significant production from their third receiver last year which is kind of the point and 2) the Jets have paid multiple tight ends like heavy usage players and haven’t made that move at wide receiver to this point.