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The Merged Trade for Deebo Samuel Thread


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4 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

well after 3 years, adams averaged 642 yards and 5.3 TDs a season, so you are not talking about the devante adams of today.

the point remains, there are many players who are traded for draft picks, where in a hypothetical, the "accomplished pro" version of them would be drafted well before the draft pick used to acquire them.  that's because veteran players, especially those that require contract extensions, have a much greater cost than just the draft pick used to acquire them.  last year's #10 pick signed a 4-year, $20 million contract.  samuel will likely want more than $20 million annually.

to be clear, i'm not against trading for samuel and signing him to an extension.  but there is no need to give up the #10 pick when no one else will come close to that trade compensation.

I walked it back in a previous post. No i would not trade 10 for either of them. I would still trade 10 for Deebo if the bidding war gets to that. If it doesn't get to that and its cheaper to land him, heck ill do 1000 cartwheels in the office parking lot (edited for original adult humor). 

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47 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Hughes has been pretty good with Jets info this off-season.  Enough to make me think he does actually have info from someone with the Jets.

I highly doubt he has connections with the Niners however.  Which makes me think this is planted from the Jets maybe?  But I don’t know what purpose that would serve, but I’m usually slow on the uptake.  

Agree, Connor has been very good and mostly accurate this offseason.  I'll tell you this, if the Jets take Ekwonu at #4 then Hughes has completely nailed this offseason.

 

38 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

One difference here as compared to Hill is that Deebo would not get to choose where he goes which would make the Jets a slightly bigger favorite because of the familiarity. I think in the end he goes to the Chiefs.

I don't think he'd go anywhere but the AFC.  IF the 49ers decide to trade him I think they'd want him out of the conference, not just their division.  That probably puts the Chiefs and Jets in two of the best positions to get this done, if the trade door is even opened at all which I'm now doubting the 49ers will do.

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5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Half those throws were as good as handing it off to him.  Is he going to start complaining about not wanting to take swing passes?

There's data to suggest that isn't the case.  There's a stat called Yards-Before-Catch/Reception.  This is how many yards the ball travelled before it was caught.

in 2021 - Deebo's # was 8.3.  Tyreek Hill's was 7.2.  Davante Adams' was 7.9.

So leaving the sweeps out of it because they aren't catches, he had the longest YBC/R of those receivers.  

Another point worth mentioning.  He didn't really run the ball until mid-season.  He caught for 979 yards in his first 9 games.  That's a pace for 1,850 yards over a 17 game season.  He effectively became a RB in week 10 and for the next 3 games, he caught 1 pass in each.  If you project the first 9 games out, he was a monster WR.  The only knock on him was his Catch % which was lower than Adams and Hill by a few points, but 63.6% isn't bad, just not as good. 

I'm not sure he'll translate into a dominant WR here, but I like him a lot more than anyone we have on the roster right now.

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37 minutes ago, GangGreen Machine said:

That along with his 130 yards running for 3 TD's is a monster rookie year from the lens of a Jet WR let alone the league. 

 

 

huh i never realized he had 3 in his rookie year. Wonder if there were all goal line option/hand offs and the like. 

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6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

He is a lesser player in that case, who as a defense you do not have to game plan to be a runner, thus affecting almost very way he is used.

He was used in a way that was maximally efficient last year making him the big threat player he is now.

We will have to agree to disagree on this one, his effectiveness as a player will dive if he is just a wr.

And his career and availability as a WR will be cut short if he continues to receive 50-60 carries a season.  I just don't necessarily believe trading and paying for someone the year after a career season is the best strategy.  I'm torn as to whether to go after him.

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1 hour ago, Lith said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Holy **** facts have a place here?

49ers record the first 8 weeks? 3-4

49ers record the last 10 weeks? 7-3

Stats don't tell the whole story, the reality is Deebos role out of the backfield opens up the offense and puts the defense off balance. 

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2 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets don’t think he’s even being moved!

Wow - the idea that writers are immediately contacting their Jets sources re: Deebo is all you need to know about it being a lock that if he does get traded, it's to us

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2 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets don’t think he’s even being moved!

Think San Fran really wants to keep him for obvious reasons, but we're really close to the draft and I think the team may just give in one way or another.

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18 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Half those throws were as good as handing it off to him.  Is he going to start complaining about not wanting to take swing passes?

Things youd need to know before trading for him. It sounds like he doesn’t want to run the ball anymore but be paid on his past ability to run the ball. 

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3 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets don’t think he’s even being moved!

If JD is running this process, they have an offer on the table and they're unlikely to move much off of it.  I suspect it's not much more than what they offered for Hill.  The question really is, as we get closer to the draft, will SF come down.  

 

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5 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

 

49ers record the first 8 weeks? 3-4

49ers record the last 10 weeks? 7-3

Stats don't tell the whole story, the reality is Deebos role out of the backfield opens up the offense and puts the defense off balance. 

This is it right here. I don’t know if Deebo’s usage is a great fit for this team right now. The team needs a receiver who’s gonna win in the intermediate to allow Moore/ Berrios to win on gadget plays and longer developing routes. 

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8 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Things youd need to know before trading for him. It sounds like he doesn’t want to run the ball anymore but be paid on his past ability to run the ball. 

People keep saying this - but is there anything to back that up?  Any reporting whatsoever or just speculation?

I'm mean that sincerely - because it is a major issue if we're going to pay him.

I get the sense this is entirely about money - a month ago he wasn't complaining about his role.  

Just sounds to me SF isn't stepping up and paying his ask - and he's pissed about it.  

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14 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

 

49ers record the first 8 weeks? 3-4

49ers record the last 10 weeks? 7-3

Stats don't tell the whole story, the reality is Deebos role out of the backfield opens up the offense and puts the defense off balance. 

Ehhh a lot of factors. Kitties missed 3 games in those first 8 games. Mitchell missed 2. Jimmy missed 1. Jeff Wilson missed all of them. Aiyuk was playing like sh*t. 

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The highest 2022 picks Miami traded for Hill were #29 and #50 (and a future 2nd rounder (2023)). 1040 points (+ future pick value)

The highest 2022 picks LV gave up for Adams were #22 and #53. 1150 points

Both of those 2022 pick packages (according to the trade value chart...not factoring in the future picks) ) are worth less than 10 (1300 points).

We're not trading 10 unless that's the only pick...and I still would think hard about that. Picks #35 and #38 are worth 1070 points. Some combo of those and a 2023 pick maybe. We could then hopefully trade back from #4 or #10 and recoup some picks.

Edit: Miami also traded a 2022 4th round pick (worth 52 points)

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23 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

He is a lesser player in that case, who as a defense you do not have to game plan to be a runner, thus affecting almost very way he is used.

He was used in a way that was maximally efficient last year making him the big threat player he is now.

We will have to agree to disagree on this one, his effectiveness as a player will dive if he is just a wr.

This is just not true. The guy is an elite traditional receiver regardless of his RB reps. You are overthinking this one

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29 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

But we don't have room in the garage for Deebo since Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are often hurt as well.

They can rust out in the side yard

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27 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Jets don’t think he’s even being moved!

Based upon Douglas's time as the GM, I have a hard time believing he would give up a king's ransom for any player or be willing to pay Samuel top 5 WR money. 

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11 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

The highest 2022 picks Miami traded for Hill were #29 and #50 (and a future 2nd rounder (2023)). 1040 points (+ future pick value)

The highest 2022 picks LV gave up for Adams were #22 and #53. 1150 points

Both of those 2022 pick packages (according to the trade value chart...not factoring in the future picks) ) are worth less than 10 (1300 points).

We're not trading 10 unless that's the only pick...and I still would think hard about that. Picks #35 and #38 are worth 1070 points. Some combo of those and a 2023 pick maybe. We could then hopefully trade back from #4 or #10 and recoup some picks.

I would rather trade #10 than the two second rounders unless JD already has a trade down agreement from 4. 10 will likely be someone like London or Williams so instead we get Deebo. JD seems to want to keep the Round 1 picks so maybe we offer the Hill deal.

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Just now, maury77 said:

Based upon Douglas's time as the GM, I have a hard time believing he would give up a king's ransom for any player or be willing to pay Samuel top 5 WR money. 

He was willing to pay Hill, not sure why he wouldn't be willing to pay Deebo if he thinks his on field performance will stay similar.

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29 minutes ago, nycdan said:

There's data to suggest that isn't the case.  There's a stat called Yards-Before-Catch/Reception.  This is how many yards the ball travelled before it was caught.

in 2021 - Deebo's # was 8.3.  Tyreek Hill's was 7.2.  Davante Adams' was 7.9.

So leaving the sweeps out of it because they aren't catches, he had the longest YBC/R of those receivers.  

 

 

he ranked 49th in the league in that stat, in the same ballpark as guys like dk metcalf and ceedee lamb.

but what is most impressive is he led the league (WRs only) in yards after the catch/reception, at 10.0.  excluding RBs (there were 3 RBs higher than him), the next WR was mecole hardman at 8.5 and then jamaar chase at 8.1.  

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