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The Merged Trade for Deebo Samuel Thread


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1 minute ago, slats said:

This is the sound logic I generally like to use in these situations. I prefer to be on the receiving end of these blockbuster deals (i.e.: receiving the picks). When you give up a couple high picks and big money, you’re giving up enough assets for a few good starters. With the #10 pick involved, you’re talking about a player who’s expected to be very good right away. The Jets crushed the Jamal Adams trade, for example, but the teams that traded away first rounders for guys like Diggs and Stafford are probably fairly pleased with how their trades worked out, too. 
 
It’s pretty obvious that the Jets really want to add a major piece to help jumpstart Zach and the offense, though, and I like that approach, too. JD is scrupulously frugal enough of the time that he can take a singular plunge like this if he’s feels it’s in the team’s best interest. 
 
I’ll have mixed feelings whichever way this goes down. I just know I want Zach put in the best possible position to succeed. There’s no doubt that Deebo Samuel would be a big help in that regard. 

Agree with all of this.

If JD is really making this call (and not Woody - which is a very real possibility IMO) I can't imagine #10 is involved - I would honestly be surprised if it even matched the Hill package.

You tell me 35 and a 4th or even a 3rd and I'm feeling good about this....But 10, in my opinion would be far too much.  

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4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Agree with all of this.

If JD is really making this call (and not Woody - which is a very real possibility IMO) I can't imagine #10 is involved - I would honestly be surprised if it even matched the Hill package.

You tell me 35 and a 4th or even a 3rd and I'm feeling good about this....But 10, in my opinion would be far too much.  

I'm kicking you out of the Zach Wilson fan club.

@Hal N of Provo we lost a good one today.

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Just now, Gastineau Lives said:

I'm kicking you out of the Zach Wilson fan club. 

:-)

I'm legit worried about one year of his production - in a gadgety role.   I was all in on the Hill deal and would be happy with Melcalf for the Hill deal...But these guys are talking about #10 and #35 - and then having to pay him $25mm plus.  I just feel like it's a big risk to put all your eggs in a one year basket.

Williams and Bryce Hall changes this offense...Then use that $25mm to shore up the remaining couple of holes on D ----- and I believe that helps Zach more than rolling the dice on Deebo.

Now, if you're going to tell me JD is going to sit on that $25mm+ and just keep rolling it over - I might feel differently.

 

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10 minutes ago, GangGreened said:

There is 0% chance 10 and 35 are moved for him

Can't say for sure it's 0% but I generally agree.  I can't see how we'd offer more for him than MIA or we did for Tyreek.

Both 2s would probably be the ceiling but I could see either #10 alone, or #35 and #69.  Assuming we can agree on a contract that is sane (something a little shy of  the area of Tyreek's 4-year, $90M would probably be the real number plus the imaginary 5th year to bring the AAAV up near $30M).

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3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

With 10, 35 and $25mm...

I can have...

  1. Deebo Samuel (one year of elite production in 3)

Or

with 10, 35 and $25mm I can have:

  1. Jameson Williams
  2. Breece Hall
  3. Honey Badger
  4. Jedeveon Clowney

(could be any mix of picks or FA's - OBJ, Stefan Gilmore, JC Tretter, Akiem Hicks etc)

But I think you get my point....

 

 

Jameson is a huge risk

Breece Hall is a RB.  You don’t take a RB that high unless your roster is super deep like the Bills and you need that one element.

Honey badger was overlooked by many teams and undervalued. Hmm 🤔 

Clowney is a good run stopper but never fulfilled his promise. 

But I’m not surrendering any 1st rounders for ANYBODY 

 

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31 minutes ago, LockeJET said:

Hill wanted 30 million a year it was nowhere near what the Chiefs were offering. The Chiefs have a lot of money tied up going forward and once they knew they weren’t gonna meet his contract requirement he was gone he was going to be traded. There was only two teams willing to meet his contract demands along with giving up assets. 

And you can say the same in the Deebo situation.  49ers have to pay Bosa, Kittle , etc...  Deebo wants to be the highest paid non quarterback in the league.  Same exact situation. 

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31 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

He had ONE YEAR where he missed more than one game. 

But let's discount his ONE YEAR of mvp level football by calling it a good year to help make a point.

Its also no small fact that his "one good year" came last season. It didn't happen in 2015.

I said great not good and call it what you want.  it still was only one year. 

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4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

:-)

I'm legit worried about one year of his production - in a gadgety role.   I was all in on the Hill deal and would be happy with Melcalf for the Hill deal...But these guys are talking about #10 and #35 - and then having to pay him $25mm plus.  I just feel like it's a big risk to put all your eggs in a one year basket.

Williams and Bryce Hall changes this offense...Then use that $25mm to shore up the remaining couple of holes on D ----- and I believe that helps Zach more than rolling the dice on Deebo.

Now, if you're going to tell me JD is going to sit on that $25mm+ and just keep rolling it over - I might feel differently.

 

What gadgety role? The RB snaps, fine, take them out he still averaged 40 percent more per catch than Tyreek Hill. DK Metcalf has yet to have a season receiving wise that Deebo had last year. DK Metcalf played with Russel Wilson who is a little better Jimmy Garropoloollollo

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31 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

I’ve gone on plenty of diets, I just suck at it, 

Intermittent fasting. It works but takes discipline. Took me 5 years to figure it out.  I’m a slow learner 😫Then Covid hit and I said Eff it. But going back to it. It’s all mindset. And it’s really quite simple. You can eat whatever you want. It’s just all a matter of when and how much. 

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3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

:-)

I'm legit worried about one year of his production - in a gadgety role.   I was all in on the Hill deal and would be happy with Melcalf for the Hill deal...But these guys are talking about #10 and #35 - and then having to pay him $25mm plus.  I just feel like it's a big risk to put all your eggs in a one year basket.

Williams and Bryce Hall changes this offense...Then use that $25mm to shore up the remaining couple of holes on D ----- and I believe that helps Zach more than rolling the dice on Deebo.

Now, if you're going to tell me JD is going to sit on that $25mm+ and just keep rolling it over - I might feel differently.

 

This is also a very strong position.  Offering a comp of Williams and Hall at those picks (which I don't think we would need to use to make the trade) is compelling and I would not hate those picks.  How would you feel if it was #35 and #69 we had to use?  Wouldn't even stop us from getting Williams and having a great WR for a change.  Assume he's a $20M/year over 4 years contract to extend (basically just shy of what Tyreek actually got).  I get the one-year thing, but even before that, he was still very effective in that role.  With him, we wouldn't need Breece Hall at least.  Also, notice the YPC stats.  He led the league last year (not even talking about his runs).  More than Hill.  More than Chase.  He's not just a gadget player based on that.  Plus remember who he was catching passes from versus those other guys.

I'm not sure, but I'm interested.

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1 minute ago, Drums said:

Hope we get him but either way Im taking WR in the draft, just later. No more Jeff Smiths

its crazy we sign him to a futures deal. what is the infatuation with Jeff smith. stone hands... Corey Davis Jr and not even as close to JAG as Davis.

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1 hour ago, section314 said:

If we are going to give up assets fora WR, he’s got to be a true , no doubt about it, #1. This guy doesn’t seem to be that player. 

You may have to way, lets say, forever, for that to happen. 

Is DK a 'true #1' no. Is Deebo a 'true #1' no. Would I love for the Jets to get either one of them by giving up SOME draft assets rather than drafting a WR who will a. take time to develop and b. could bust...yes, I think so. Of course, there's the money. You are looking at close to 30mil per year devoted to a WR for Deebo. But contracts are flexible. And the cap is always going up. Our QB is on a rookie deal, I think if ever this may be an ok time to sign a stud WR long term.   

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4 minutes ago, sec143dmf said:

I said great not good and call it what you want.  it still was only one year. 

The other two years:

Rookie season

Jones fracture

And again, it was the very last thing he did while on a football field 14 weeks ago. That is significant. 

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Just now, PepPep said:

You may have to way, lets say, forever, for that to happen. 

Is DK a 'true #1' no. Is Deebo a 'true #1' no. Would I love for the Jets to get either one of them by giving up SOME draft assets rather than drafting a WR who will a. take time to develop and b. could bust...yes, I think so. Of course, there's the money. You are looking at close to 30mil per year devoted to a WR for Deebo. But contracts are flexible. And the cap is always going up. Our QB is on a rookie deal, I think if ever this may be an ok time to sign a stud WR long term.   

and don't forget you can drop Corey Davis and his $14 mil which helps as well. 

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Who knows what Deebo’s real motivations are, and who knows if the Jets would even be an option for him. But, this guy is an immediate game changer. Zach would be better, Corey and the other wide receivers would immediately be better, and this team would be a whole lotta fun to watch.

Certainly we would have to give up a lot to get him in money and draft capital, but at some point Jets have to make the big splash move to get talent that jettisons us into the future. I’m not saying we can’t do that through the draft. But this could be the move that finally changes the Jets trajectory.  It could also set us back like moves in the past.  

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1 minute ago, Gastineau Lives said:

The other two years:

Rookie season

Jones fracture

And again, it was the very last thing he did while on a football field 14 weeks ago. That is significant. 

I average a 201 in bowling.  Last night I shot my personal best series of 784.  I guess what I did the rest of the times I bowled don't make a difference and all that matters is what I did recently.  Your point makes no sense to me at all.  I am not calling him a bad player.  I just have a hard time justifying high draft picks and a huge contract based off of one year.  Agree to disagree I guess. 

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4 minutes ago, Stark said:

and don't forget you can drop Corey Davis and his $14 mil which helps as well. 

His salary is fully guaranteed, he’s not going anywhere this year. 

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6 minutes ago, the Claw said:

The 49rs have been relevant and competitive within the past two decades. 

That's twenty years. I know you mean ten or so basically you're using language to make a point because now I have to respond that we were in back to back AFC championships 11 years ago and that sounds silly so well done.

I guess your point is that we can never get the good players until we get the good players? That we're a wasteland until we're not a wasteland or is all lost and we should just all find something else to do?

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16 minutes ago, sec143dmf said:

And you can say the same in the Deebo situation.  49ers have to pay Bosa, Kittle , etc...  Deebo wants to be the highest paid non quarterback in the league.  Same exact situation. 

Wrong! 49ers are a more well-rounded team than the Chiefs.  they got a great defense, a running game and they’re ready to compete for a championship. The Chiefs have already won and were  struggling to win it all with Hill on the team.  they needed to move Hill because they weren’t gonna pay him what he wanted and they needed assets to build a better team around Mahomes. 49ers can technically keep Deebo at team friendly money for two more seasons and make a legit run. Chiefs  got to the point where they had to move Hill 49ers are not there yet. 49ers can afford Deebo. 

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Talent wise for Deebo NP. But the story with him is his health. He's been overused by SF and banged up and those are the kind of hits that have their effect long term. I've seen few receivers exposed down the middle as much as he was.  So I don't give up our 10 if he can pass a physical maybe a second rounder. 

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17 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Let’s see. The other day it was AJ Brown tweet that he wants out.  Now it’s Deebo. By Friday it will be DK’s turn. 

All three have the same agent ie playbook. 

Tyreek might want out of Miami by now.

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27 minutes ago, GangGreened said:

There is 0% chance 10 and 35 are moved for him

Exactly. I dont even know why that’s even part of the discussion.

Same with saying he is going to cost $30M. Deebo is looking for a deal that gets up to $25M. So meeting is salary demands looks more like the Diggs extension.

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12 minutes ago, nycdan said:

This is also a very strong position.  Offering a comp of Williams and Hall at those picks (which I don't think we would need to use to make the trade) is compelling and I would not hate those picks.  How would you feel if it was #35 and #69 we had to use?  Wouldn't even stop us from getting Williams and having a great WR for a change.  Assume he's a $20M/year over 4 years contract to extend (basically just shy of what Tyreek actually got).  I get the one-year thing, but even before that, he was still very effective in that role.  With him, we wouldn't need Breece Hall at least.  Also, notice the YPC stats.  He led the league last year (not even talking about his runs).  More than Hill.  More than Chase.  He's not just a gadget player based on that.  Plus remember who he was catching passes from versus those other guys.

I'm not sure, but I'm interested.

Yes, 35 and 69 and $20mm - I'm fully on board.

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