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Let's Pivot...Focus on Pass Rush and causing Turnovers!


MaybeOneDay
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All this talk about weapons and offense...

I say, let's focus on the Pass Rush and causing Turnovers.

The AFC landscape is loaded with great QB's, great explosive offenses, etc.

So, how do the non-Tyreek Hill Jets compete?

I think the structure is already in place...Look no further than the team our current head coach used to be the D Coordinator for....SF 49ers.

If the Jets are smart, they use their draft capital to focus first and foremost on building a dominant Pass Rush, and building a D which causes TURNOVERS.  All these fancy high end QB's are powerless when they are sitting on the bench.

On O, focus on building a powerful, dominant running game, where Zach can then use play action to create big plays over the top. 

Jets don't need 3 All-Pro WR's to win...they need a strong balanced team who's strengths are a perfect foil to these high powered offenses and high end QB's which they will face in the AFC.

Pressure the QB

Force Turnovers

Play ball-control O

Hit a few explosive plays

Win games

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In an offensive world, defense won't do crap if you want to go anywhere. Just watch the Chiefs-Bills game over again. These offenses are too high-powered to go all-in on defense anymore. At least 1 offense player in round 1

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Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying offense isn't important or that it should be an afterthought...

I am saying that if we want to win, we should be focusing on building the team to counter what the other teams you are competing with want to do.

To me, that is build a dominant pass rush, a defense which is great at causing turnovers, and an offense which can play ball control.  

I didn't say don't take a WR in the first round...if they want to go Pass Rusher at 4 and WR at 10, that's fine.  

I'm talking more style of play...what is going to work when you come up against Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, etc.  

I'm totally for supporting Zach and giving him all he needs around him to be successful.

But success can come in many different styles.  

Personally, I'm a huge fan of Elijah Moore.  I feel the Jets already have their #1 WR to grow with Zach.  Davis is a nice complementary piece.  The TE's are a huge upgrade over the garbage this team has had over the last few years.  This should also be the best O-Line we've had in at least a decade.  So a lot of the pieces are already in place.  Not disputing we need more help, more depth, more of a pipeline of talent on O.  We do.

Talking more about what sort of style this team should be focusing on playing in order to maximize their chance of being successful in this AFC

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33 minutes ago, Hex said:

In an offensive world, defense won't do crap if you want to go anywhere. Just watch the Chiefs-Bills game over again. These offenses are too high-powered to go all-in on defense anymore. At least 1 offense player in round 1

Agreed.  Pretty sure the Bills had the #1 defense in the NFL but the Chiefs had no problem moving the ball down the field.  The days of defense in the NFL are over.  We're in the Arena League era.

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39 minutes ago, Snell41 said:

So smart…. Draft a project QB #2 overall, watch him struggle mightily as a rookie because he’s not ready and literally has no weapons at all, and then shore up his second year not by giving him weapons, but shoring up defense. Makes total ******* sense. Hey, why not draft Hamilton and another ******* DT. It’s so mind numbing how stupid our FO is regardless of what human being actually man’s the position, and how stupid and accepting our fan base is of this bullsh*t. You can revamp a Defense in one season from awful to top 15 just by making a few FA signings. You draft a Franchise QB that actually pans out maybe once or twice in a lifetime, so yeah let’s keep drafting QB’s to fail why we continuously draft defense for decades. Unbelievable


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I share in your anger. 

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29 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

It's an interesting argument and I would respect that approach, but if we are turning into a power running team, we need another above average running back to go along with our edge rushers. 

For sure.  The 49ers are a heck of a team and they're much more old school than most teams in the NFL (I think the Pats are too, btw).

I would love to build a team as good as SF but they have talent that we don't have (e.g. Deebo, Kittle and a great HC) and an already-established power running game.  They're a joy to watch, imo.  I rooted for them over the Rams.  

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2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Agreed.  Pretty sure the Bills had the #1 defense in the NFL but the Chiefs had no problem moving the ball down the field.  The days of defense in the NFL are over.  We're in the Arena League era.

Don't disagree, which is why I am saying Pass Rush and Turnovers.

Didn't say build a dominant defense overall...I said Dominant Pass Rush (to make these All-World QB's uncomfortable) and force Turnovers (to get them off the field).

You need a base level of skill, but can scheme some of this.  

Can't stop them, completely, not going to throw up any shut outs, but if you can hold them to say 17-24, and cause 2-3 turnovers, you can give yourself a chance to win.

In fact, that may be the only way to consistently compete.  

Arena style or not, Turnovers are and will always be a huge key to success in the NFL.  Win the Turnover battle and give yourself a chance to win.

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19 minutes ago, MaybeOneDay said:

Don't disagree, which is why I am saying Pass Rush and Turnovers.

Didn't say build a dominant defense overall...I said Dominant Pass Rush (to make these All-World QB's uncomfortable) and force Turnovers (to get them off the field).

You need a base level of skill, but can scheme some of this.  

Can't stop them, completely, not going to throw up any shut outs, but if you can hold them to say 17-24, and cause 2-3 turnovers, you can give yourself a chance to win.

In fact, that may be the only way to consistently compete.  

Arena style or not, Turnovers are and will always be a huge key to success in the NFL.  Win the Turnover battle and give yourself a chance to win.

Limited cap space and draft capital though.  If you plunge too much of it into defense it makes it more difficult to build a good enough offense.  At least that's my theory.  I'm sure if you draft really well that anything can be overcome.

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56 minutes ago, MaybeOneDay said:

Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying offense isn't important or that it should be an afterthought...

I am saying that if we want to win, we should be focusing on building the team to counter what the other teams you are competing with want to do.

To me, that is build a dominant pass rush, a defense which is great at causing turnovers, and an offense which can play ball control.  

I didn't say don't take a WR in the first round...if they want to go Pass Rusher at 4 and WR at 10, that's fine.  

I'm talking more style of play...what is going to work when you come up against Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, etc.  

I'm totally for supporting Zach and giving him all he needs around him to be successful.

But success can come in many different styles.  

Personally, I'm a huge fan of Elijah Moore.  I feel the Jets already have their #1 WR to grow with Zach.  Davis is a nice complementary piece.  The TE's are a huge upgrade over the garbage this team has had over the last few years.  This should also be the best O-Line we've had in at least a decade.  So a lot of the pieces are already in place.  Not disputing we need more help, more depth, more of a pipeline of talent on O.  We do.

Talking more about what sort of style this team should be focusing on playing in order to maximize their chance of being successful in this AFC

I like your posts and greatly appreciate starting with a strategy, which I don't think the Jets previous front offices have had.  They've had strategies on draft, for example best player available but they've lacked a clear strategy on what brand of football they want to play or need to play in order to win consistently and challenge for a title.

Your strategy is a sound one and one that could work.  Myself I believe the following in sequence:

1. Offense over defense starting with a franchise QB, not a game manager (Jets are banking on Wilson; did not believe Sam was a guy who could elevate others)

2. Then protect him (starting O-line is complete; need now to round out depth / insurance for Becton)

3. Provide him balanced weapons to support his development, score points, and control the flow of the game (agree Moore is very promising but they need even more in the passing game)

4. Use offense to elevate the defense.  The avg defense of a top 10 offense over the last 5 years is near the top quartile in points allowed,  despite the salary cap.  So a top offense typically equates to a very good defense (not always, but there is correlation and you can probably guess some of the reasons such as keeping the opposing offense off the field, slowing its momentum, and keeping your own D fresh)

5. Round out your defense through a strategy of your own.  For the Jets, front 4 pressure without blitzing is the goal, so go get an Edge and some bulls in the middle to stop the run and collapse the pocket

Data analytics and front office moves across the league are showing this is the modern model.  Just look at the trade market for franchise QBs and #1 receivers or the fact that 7 of 8 franchise tags were used on OL, TE, WR, etc. etc. 

So your model would be the contrarian model, which who knows might just make it brilliant. 

 

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28 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

For sure.  The 49ers are a heck of a team and they're much more old school than most teams in the NFL (I think the Pats are too, btw).

I would love to build a team as good as SF but they have talent that we don't have (e.g. Deebo, Kittle and a great HC) and an already-established power running game.  They're a joy to watch, imo.  I rooted for them over the Rams.  

They also got to the NFL championship game by holding GB to 10 points.

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Some more stats for those who have missed out on my boring data based posts.

Over the last 5 years, all 10 super bowl participants had a top 10 offense

Only 6 of the 10 had a top 10 defense

The most consistently balanced team in the top 10, the Colts, had a top 10 offense and top 10 defense near the bottom of the top 10 in 3 of the 5 years and yet only won 1 playoff game and even missed out on the playoffs this past year despite being ranked 9 or 10 in both (points scored/allowed)

The average point differential between a top 10 Offense and the points its defense gave up was significantly better than the point differential between the points a top 10 Defense gave up and the points its offense scored

Those are facts, not opinions.  

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I can for sure see the Jets fall into the actions of previous regimes.

Hire a Defensive head coach 'genius', watch as his precious D gets shredded to ribbons.

Draft D players to hope your D genius does not loo so awful.

Jets heavily pandered to Rex and Bowles, we will see if the current GM has the nuts to say 'Hey you are the smart one figure out the D without having to provide you with uber D weapons.'

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2 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

building a team to win 2 decades ago is always a great idea...

That was the criticism in 2009-2010 and it got us to an actual Championship game in THIS CENTURY!!!!!…………but we sadly lost…….again, BOTH YEARS.😭

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1 hour ago, MaybeOneDay said:

All this talk about weapons and offense...

I say, let's focus on the Pass Rush and causing Turnovers.

The AFC landscape is loaded with great QB's, great explosive offenses, etc.

So, how do the non-Tyreek Hill Jets compete?

I think the structure is already in place...Look no further than the team our current head coach used to be the D Coordinator for....SF 49ers.

If the Jets are smart, they use their draft capital to focus first and foremost on building a dominant Pass Rush, and building a D which causes TURNOVERS.  All these fancy high end QB's are powerless when they are sitting on the bench.

On O, focus on building a powerful, dominant running game, where Zach can then use play action to create big plays over the top. 

Jets don't need 3 All-Pro WR's to win...they need a strong balanced team who's strengths are a perfect foil to these high powered offenses and high end QB's which they will face in the AFC.

Pressure the QB

Force Turnovers

Play ball-control O

Hit a few explosive plays

Win games

tunnell1-jumbo.jpg

 

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Honest question for some of you guys...

Would you rather score 27 points per game, play exciting, dynamic, offensive focused football, but give up 31 and lose more than win...

Or, do you want to play a more controlled offensive game (Not saying don't try for big plays...absolutely go for 4...5...6 big over the top throws per game), but focus on establishing the running game and playing ball control, then hitting some play action for big plays....Maybe only score 20-24 per game, but also hold the other team down a bit, give them less opportunities, keep your D fresh, and try to win more than you lose, but by an average score of say 23-20?  

It seems some of you think it has to be all offense or bust.  Which, on some level, I get.  I get our history, I get that we've been supposedly defensively focused, and it hasn't worked out because our offense has sucked big time.  

I'm not at all saying ignore offense...more trying to come up with a viable strategy for how to compete and win games in this brutal AFC we find ourselves competing in.

Sometimes when everyone Zigs, the winning move is to Zag...

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36 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I like your posts and greatly appreciate starting with a strategy, which I don't think the Jets previous front offices have had.  They've had strategies on draft, for example best player available but they've lacked a clear strategy on what brand of football they want to play or need to play in order to win consistently and challenge for a title.

Your strategy is a sound one and one that could work.  Myself I believe the following in sequence:

1. Offense over defense starting with a franchise QB, not a game manager (Jets are banking on Wilson; did not believe Sam was a guy who could elevate others)

2. Then protect him (starting O-line is complete; need now to round out depth / insurance for Becton)

3. Provide him balanced weapons to support his development, score points, and control the flow of the game (agree Moore is very promising but they need even more in the passing game)

4. Use offense to elevate the defense.  The avg defense of a top 10 offense over the last 5 years is near the top quartile in points allowed,  despite the salary cap.  So a top offense typically equates to a very good defense (not always, but there is correlation and you can probably guess some of the reasons such as keeping the opposing offense off the field, slowing its momentum, and keeping your own D fresh)

5. Round out your defense through a strategy of your own.  For the Jets, front 4 pressure without blitzing is the goal, so go get an Edge and some bulls in the middle to stop the run and collapse the pocket

Data analytics and front office moves across the league are showing this is the modern model.  Just look at the trade market for franchise QBs and #1 receivers or the fact that 7 of 8 franchise tags were used on OL, TE, WR, etc. etc. 

So your model would be the contrarian model, which who knows might just make it brilliant. 

 

I'm on board with this...I don't think we are that far off with our strategies.

Absolutely, I'm on board with building up the Offense.  Support Zach by all means.  But there are different ways to do that.  One way, traditionally, is to give him a Defense which is able to put pressure on the QB and cause turnovers.  Making his job easier by giving him more opportunities, giving him a short field to work with, etc.  

There has to be some sort of balance...the best teams are able to win in multiple ways.  Your offense will not always be able to carry you, nor will your defense.  Some games, you need one to pick up the other...some games you need the special teams to make winning plays (See. SF 49ers at GB Packers, 2021 NFC Playoffs)

I don't think all offense and scraps on D is necessarily a winning strategy.  It has to be a balance...ultimately, you need to build the best team.  I don't really see them getting to where they want to ultimately go without a Pass Rush and without a D which can cause turnovers.  By the way, that doesn't mean every high pick needs to be spent on D.  

In a world where other teams have a ton of resources tied up in their Offense....a Balanced approach may be the way to go.

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15 minutes ago, MaybeOneDay said:

Honest question for some of you guys...

Would you rather score 27 points per game, play exciting, dynamic, offensive focused football, but give up 31 and lose more than win...

Or, do you want to play a more controlled offensive game (Not saying don't try for big plays...absolutely go for 4...5...6 big over the top throws per game), but focus on establishing the running game and playing ball control, then hitting some play action for big plays....Maybe only score 20-24 per game, but also hold the other team down a bit, give them less opportunities, keep your D fresh, and try to win more than you lose, but by an average score of say 23-20?  

It seems some of you think it has to be all offense or bust.  Which, on some level, I get.  I get our history, I get that we've been supposedly defensively focused, and it hasn't worked out because our offense has sucked big time.  

I'm not at all saying ignore offense...more trying to come up with a viable strategy for how to compete and win games in this brutal AFC we find ourselves competing in.

Sometimes when everyone Zigs, the winning move is to Zag...

I'd rather lose 34-31 than lose 21-12 or 28-6 or 31-3 or 54-0.

We've tried Defense-First for over 20 years.  It's time to try and be the best Offense for a change.

It's bad that we suck.  It's worse the we suck boring.  And make no mistake, we suck boring.

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51 minutes ago, chirorob said:

They also got to the NFL championship game by holding GB to 10 points.

You're right.  And that completely goes against my theory that you can't win with defense.  They also played very competitively in the NFC CG (which also goes against my theory).  But I think the odds are against you trying to win by building a great defense.  I still can't get over how easily KC matriculated the ball down the field against Buffalo in the divisional round.

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17 minutes ago, MaybeOneDay said:

Honest question for some of you guys...

Would you rather score 27 points per game, play exciting, dynamic, offensive focused football, but give up 31 and lose more than win...

Or, do you want to play a more controlled offensive game (Not saying don't try for big plays...absolutely go for 4...5...6 big over the top throws per game), but focus on establishing the running game and playing ball control, then hitting some play action for big plays....Maybe only score 20-24 per game, but also hold the other team down a bit, give them less opportunities, keep your D fresh, and try to win more than you lose, but by an average score of say 23-20?  

It seems some of you think it has to be all offense or bust.  Which, on some level, I get.  I get our history, I get that we've been supposedly defensively focused, and it hasn't worked out because our offense has sucked big time.  

I'm not at all saying ignore offense...more trying to come up with a viable strategy for how to compete and win games in this brutal AFC we find ourselves competing in.

Sometimes when everyone Zigs, the winning move is to Zag...

I didn't read the whole thing but I loved Rex's ground and pound style.  I just don't think you can win with that style anymore.

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Just now, Warfish said:

I'd rather lose 34-31 than lose 21-12 or 28-6 or 31-3 or 54-0.

We've tried Defense-First for over 20 years.  It's time to try and be the best Offense for a change.

It's bad that we suck.  It's worse the we suck boring.  And make no mistake, we suck boring.

Yup, I get it.  Our offense has been pathetic for a long long time.  

I'd like to watch an O that consistently puts up points, with the ability to light it up...40+ every now and again.  That would be awesome.  

However, to actually compete and win consistently, there needs to be some sort of balance there.  

I want a consistent offense along with a Pass Rush, and I want a team that consistently wins the turnover battle.  

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I didn't read the whole thing but I loved Rex's ground and pound style.  I just don't think you can win with that style anymore.

Couldn’t win with it then, either.

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11 minutes ago, MaybeOneDay said:

Yup, I get it.  Our offense has been pathetic for a long long time.  

I'd like to watch an O that consistently puts up points, with the ability to light it up...40+ every now and again.  That would be awesome.  

However, to actually compete and win consistently, there needs to be some sort of balance there.  

I want a consistent offense along with a Pass Rush, and I want a team that consistently wins the turnover battle.  

We all want it all.  Sadly we live in a resource-limited reality.

Of course we want to field a Defense that, unlike Saleh's year one, ISN'T the worst Defense in NY Jets Franchise history.

But we do not necessarily need a top 10 Defense to win a Title.

We do, most likely, need a top 10 (or even top 5) Offense to win a Title in this Era.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

2021 - Rams, ranked 7th/9th in Offense, 15th/17th in Defense

2020 - Bucs, ranked 3rd/7th in Offense, 8th/6th in Defense

2019 - Chiefs, ranked 5th/6th in Offense, 7th/17th in Defense

2018 - Pats, ranked 4th/5th in Offense, 7th/21st in Defense

2017 - Eagles, ranked 3rd/7th in Offense, 4th/4th in Defense

2016 - Pats, ranked 3rd/4th on Offence, 1st/8th in Defense

2015 - Broncos, ranked 19th/16th in Offense, 4th/1st in Defense (The last true "Defense Won a Championship" w/ P.Manning

2014 - Pats, ranked 4th/11th in Offense, 8th/13th in Defense

2013 - Seahawks, ranked 8th/17th in Offense, 1st/1st in Defense (Another DWC).

2012 - Ravens, ranked 10th/16th in Offense, 12th/17th in Defense

2011 - Giants, ranked 9th/8th in Offense, 25th/27th in Defense

2010 - Packers, ranked 10th/9th in Offense, 2nd/5th in Defense

2009 - Saints, ranked 1st/1st in Offense, 20th/25th in Defense  

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking at the list, almost all the title winners were top 10 (or 5) Offenses.  Some were also top 10 Defenses, many were not.

Of this group, only one team won the way you appear to have planned out, the 2015 Broncos, led by the aged Peyton Manning (and Brock Osweiller) in last-effort game manager mode for a team clearly dominated by it's Defense.  Definitely a DWC.

The Seahawks of 2013 were the best D in the game, but still had a top 10 Offense.  Another DWC, although with a top O as well.

In fact, it's just rare to see a non-top-10 Offense win in this league in this day and age.  While a number of these teams were sorta meh at Defense (Saints in 2009, Giants in 2011, Ravens in 2012 (middling both sides), Pats in 2018 (good on pts, not yards), Chiefs in 2019 (same as Pats, good on points, not yards) and the Rams this year (middle pack D).

So while yes, I think we all agree some semblance of balance IS required for success, the balance must skew towards the Offense and producing a top-10 or top-5 Offense, while a 10-15 type average Defense CAN be absorbed and still win a Super Bowl.    

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We would be repeating  the mistakes of the past. Maomes. Allen and Burrow were successfull in karge part because they are the #1 focus of their teams and they do everything  than can to give them more weapons. We need to do i with Zach.cannot buy into this plan. I have seen it before

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13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

We all want it all.  Sadly we live in a resource-limited reality.

Of course we want to field a Defense that, unlike Saleh's year one, ISN'T the worst Defense in NY Jets Franchise history.

But we do not necessarily need a top 10 Defense to win a Title.

We do, most likely, need a top 10 (or even top 5) Offense to win a Title in this Era.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

2021 - Rams, ranked 7th/9th in Offense, 15th/17th in Defense

2020 - Bucs, ranked 3rd/7th in Offense, 8th/6th in Defense

2019 - Chiefs, ranked 5th/6th in Offense, 7th/17th in Defense

2018 - Pats, ranked 4th/5th in Offense, 7th/21st in Defense

2017 - Eagles, ranked 3rd/7th in Offense, 4th/4th in Defense

2016 - Pats, ranked 3rd/4th on Offence, 1st/8th in Defense

2015 - Broncos, ranked 19th/16th in Offense, 4th/1st in Defense (The last true "Defense Won a Championship" w/ P.Manning

2014 - Pats, ranked 4th/11th in Offense, 8th/13th in Defense

2013 - Seahawks, ranked 8th/17th in Offense, 1st/1st in Defense (Another DWC).

2012 - Ravens, ranked 10th/16th in Offense, 12th/17th in Defense

2011 - Giants, ranked 9th/8th in Offense, 25th/27th in Defense

2010 - Packers, ranked 10th/9th in Offense, 2nd/5th in Defense

2009 - Saints, ranked 1st/1st in Offense, 20th/25th in Defense  

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking at the list, almost all the title winners were top 10 (or 5) Offenses.  Some were also top 10 Defenses, many were not.

Of this group, only one team won the way you appear to have planned out, the 2015 Broncos, led by the aged Peyton Manning (and Brock Osweiller) in last-effort game manager mode for a team clearly dominated by it's Defense.  Definitely a DWC.

The Seahawks of 2013 were the best D in the game, but still had a top 10 Offense.  Another DWC, although with a top O as well.

In fact, it's just rare to see a non-top-10 Offense win in this league in this day and age.  While a number of these teams were sorta meh at Defense (Saints in 2009, Giants in 2011, Ravens in 2012 (middling both sides), Pats in 2018 (good on pts, not yards), Chiefs in 2019 (same as Pats, good on points, not yards) and the Rams this year (middle pack D).

So while yes, I think we all agree some semblance of balance IS required for success, the balance must skew towards the Offense and producing a top-10 or top-5 Offense, while a 10-15 type average Defense CAN be absorbed and still win a Super Bowl.    

I hear ya...

Good list, definitely need offense, but need a pass rush and an opportunistic defense as well.  

Curious how the Super Bowl teams have done re: Turnovers.  I bet most had pretty positive numbers.  Also curious on the Sack numbers.  

I really don't remember too many SB teams who couldn't get to the QB and who couldn't create turnovers.  Even in this era.  Not saying we need a Top 5 or Top 10 D, but need to be able to rush the QB and create turnovers.  

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Sure the team needs a functional pass rush and there are other defensive areas that need improvement. The team cannot make this the complete focus of the offseason. Lawson hopefully will be back with force at edge and maybe one of the top edge guys will be picked in the draft but that's really all that can and should be done until later rounds. Wilson needs an offense full of guys who can catch passes and put points on the board. 

Every team wants a great defense but few care about funding a high end defense which means there are always good to great defenders hitting the market who can immediately fill needs on defense. Douglas can't buy an entire defense but enough good pieces can be bought to fill in between developing players. It's far harder to find good offensive players in free agency year over year which makes dedicating most of the early draft picks to offense generally necessary. 

We've been waiting year over year for the defense to get the last pieces to return to greatness since 2011 and that's not a realistic goal. Waiting for the defense to get great before the offensive becomes the focus is a sure recipe for more four win seasons.

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52 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I didn't read the whole thing but I loved Rex's ground and pound style.  I just don't think you can win with that style anymore.

That’s what they said 13 years ago and those are now considered “glory days”

lol

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