Trade idea: A.J. Brown

[oatmeal]

29 minutes ago, David Harris said:

There’s smoke! Jets fans are going nuts on twitter bc this post

They have been going crazy for about a hour now on social, a tenn outlet even wrote a article about it about 40 mins ago ??

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

Youre right that he gets nicked up, but he’s a straight up monster in a run centric offense. He’s also a great play action target and we need that cause Zach will do a lot of play action. He’s got the potential to be the best receiver in the league. He plays through injury a lot so hopefully last year was an outlier.

Hurt every year:

 

[Jet_Engine1]

25 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Just waiting for the inevitable Connor Hughes Tweet about to come saying - something like:

"Based on a AJ Brown Tweet there is now discussion on Twitter about AJ Brown being traded to the Jets, I've been told unequivocally  there are no conversation between the Jets and Titans regarding Brown"

If we don't get that tweet in the next two hours - there's something to it.  But we will.

I was listening to Connors Pod at work when the Hill stuff hit. He took 45 seconds on his phone and said, "yup, it's real. Jets are making an offer". 

 

He's a self absorbed bitch, but he's legit. 

[GreenReaper]

Getting Woods is an indication that Vrabel is loading up for a run for an AFCCG appearance.   Last season...Titans had best record in the AFC...even though Derrick Henry missed half the season.  When he came back from the injury for the playoffs...he wasn't himself in that divisional game.   Now the Woods acquisition replaces the declining Julio...to help diversify the offense from being too focused on Henry.  

Before the window closes on them...Titans will be buyers...not sellers.  A.J. to Jets is a NYJ fan's pipe dream.  No chance this happens. 

Also...why wouldn't A.J. not want a shot at competing for the Supe?   He's not going to give that up just to play with his lil Bro.  Not yet anyway.     

[RedBeardedSavage]

9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The price will be more than what was given up for Hill. #38, probably #10, and a few more picks sprinkled in, and then a massive extension, all for a guy who is always nicked up, misses games, and barely cracked 1,000 yards receiving the last two years

 

*edit* he had 869 yards last season

Isn't that just Jamal Adams for AJ Brown? 

Even if AJB misses 3 games a year, I'd make that deal.

[derp]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

They are 1000% cutting Tannehill after this season, and probably restructuring him. 

So in part that’s covered by “obviously they can move things around”. Of course they can create space. Woods would save $13.5M too. But it’s a top heavy roster, that’s $10.5M under with only 36 guys and isn’t counting this years draft class or next year’s. Cutting Tannehill saves like $18M in space but leaves a hole that’s not going to be filled cheaply or easily. That gets them room to sign Brown but then they need someone to throw him the ball.

Two teams with minimal cap space and established offenses have already decided they’d rather trade a receiver than pay him north of $20M this offseason. On one hand they were both teams paying massive money to elite QB’s, on the other hand the Titans are built around Henry. And there’s this, from someone I don’t think you’ll argue with: 

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The price will be more than what was given up for Hill. #38, probably #10, and a few more picks sprinkled in, and then a massive extension, all for a guy who is always nicked up, misses games, and barely cracked 1,000 yards receiving the last two years

 

*edit* he had 869 yards last season

So I don’t think the idea the Titans would rather trade him than give him a big money extension given their cap situation and team construction is totally out there.

I do think given the established prices for WR’s via trade and the stats you posted above the trade you suggested is off, though.

Whether he’s worth a dice roll for the Jets is a different question. I think so, but his propensity to miss games makes it tricky. But it seems like a natural scheme, locker room, need fit.

[oatmeal]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Hurt every year:

 

JD backed himself into this corner.

but you bring up a great point and now that I think about it, maybe this is Tennessee just posturing.
 

maybe Paying a WR with his injury history top of the market $ isn’t a move that they want to do..

 

 

 

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Isn't that just Jamal Adams for AJ Brown? 

Even if AJB misses 3 games a year, I'd make that deal.

I guess I would too, but I was surprised by the stats and games missed. You could see why he’d be available.

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I guess I would too, but I was surprised by the stats and games missed. You could see why he’d be available.

He'll fit right in with Moore and Davis. 

 

Berrios is freaking Iron Man next to them

[FidelioJet]

11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Hurt every year:

 

At some point you need good players.  
Would it be great if he never missed time? Sure.  But he did and we still need a good WR. 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, derp said:

So in part that’s covered by “obviously they can move things around”. Of course they can create space. Woods would save $13.5M too. But it’s a top heavy roster, that’s $10.5M under with only 36 guys and isn’t counting this years draft class or next year’s. Cutting Tannehill saves like $18M in space but leaves a hole that’s not going to be filled cheaply or easily. That gets them room to sign Brown but then they need someone to throw him the ball.

Two teams with minimal cap space and established offenses have already decided they’d rather trade a receiver than pay him north of $20M this offseason. On one hand they were both teams paying massive money to elite QB’s, on the other hand the Titans are built around Henry. And there’s this, from someone I don’t think you’ll argue with: 

So I don’t think the idea the Titans would rather trade him than give him a big money extension given their cap situation and team construction is totally out there.

I do think given the established prices for WR’s via trade and the stats you posted above the trade you suggested is off, though.

Whether he’s worth a dice roll for the Jets is a different question. I think so, but his propensity to miss games makes it tricky. But it seems like a natural scheme, locker room, need fit.

Yeah, my first thought was “AJ Brown is a top five receiver and the Jets will have to lose an arm to get him,” then I looked up the stats was was truly surprised. Maybe it won’t be as expensive in terms of the compensation going back to Tennessee, but I’d imagine Brown is still going to want to be paid at the top of the market. If I’m Douglas, I’d probably do it out of pure desperation, but I’d also be terrified of one of this year’s draftable receivers easily eclipsing Brown’s production moving forward. 

[FidelioJet]

10 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

JD backed himself into this corner.

but you bring up a great point and now that I think about it, maybe this is Tennessee just posturing.
 

maybe Paying a WR with his injury history top of the market $ isn’t a move that they want to do..

 

 

 

He’s missed 6 games in 3 years.  I think we’re over hyping his injury history.  

[Tranquilo]

20 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Hurt every year:

 

He played 16 the first year and missed 2 games last year (early on then played 14 straight games). This season was the first in which he had an extended injury and he came back strong. 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

He'll fit right in with Moore and Davis. 

 

Berrios is freaking Iron Man next to them

Berrios was the valedictorian of his class at UM. He knows that the key to avoiding injury to simply to catch fewer passes than the backup running back on any team you play on, while still getting paid

[derp]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, my first thought was “AJ Brown is a top five receiver and the Jets will have to lose an arm to get him,” then I looked up the stats was was truly surprised. Maybe it won’t be as expensive in terms of the compensation going back to Tennessee, but I’d imagine Brown is still going to want to be paid at the top of the market. If I’m Douglas, I’d probably do it out of pure desperation, but I’d also be terrified of one of this year’s draftable receivers easily eclipsing Brown’s production moving forward. 

I genuinely think this WR draft class is being massively, massively overrated. We were talking about it in the draft forum earlier - every time I try to come up with a positive pro comp for one of these guys I look at their college production and combine measurements and they're notably worse in at least one of those two areas, usually both, without being meaningfully better than the other. Of course a couple of guys are going to turn out pretty good, but good luck picking which one.

Also think if Brown is the rare guy who actually wants to be on the Jets because of friendships with guys like Moore and maybe Davis (note, I genuinely mean it as if, have no idea, but that's the only scenario that they're giving up draft capital and a contract for him so it applies for this conversation) they're not in a position to turn their nose up at that. It helps that he's 24, he's also pretty prototypical in terms of what they need, and it's the kind of thing they can afford while Wilson's on his rookie deal. Something like 4/$100M give or take a few is pretty crazy but early enough that you're catching him before he declines, he hits FA again before 30. They're really paying for Wilson's development and given he's the guy they hitched the wagon to it makes sense for them to do.

[oatmeal]

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

He’s missed 6 games in 3 years.  I think we’re over hyping his injury history.  

Maybe and this is honestly a great point but after looking at his injury history idk something seems fishy https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/aj-brown/10198

 

I’m not a doctor but that right leg don’t seem too healthy IMO 

[Jet_Engine1]

14 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Berrios was the valedictorian of his class at UM. He knows that the key to avoiding injury to simply to catch fewer passes than the backup running back on any team you play on, while still getting paid

[Snell41]

“Actually does anything” get out of here with that bs. He had 500+ yards and 5 tds only playing half the season with a rookie qb and brand new offense. He was on pace for 1000+ yards and 10 tds if he played the full season as a rookie. Take the blinders off man. 

Again, I like players that play well and stay on the field. WR’s with hammy injuries that knock them out for almost half a season don’t have me running to fit his yellow jacket yet, especially considering his per game avg was 49 yards. So far Moore is a nice player. If the team is putting all their eggs in his basket then I predict disaster. If we field Davis/Moore/Berrios/rookie then the rookie had better be the next Chase because as it stands right now we have nothing close to a superstar at WR.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Maybe and this is honestly a great point but after looking at his injury history idk something seems fishy https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/aj-brown/10198

 

I’m not a doctor but that right leg don’t seem too healthy IMO 

Yeah, specifically that right knee seems to be worrisome.

But look, he was still a dominant player when he was playing, he's 24 and wants to come here...

I'm sure JD will do all the diligence on that right leg...

We need good players!

[Snell41]

Yeah, specifically that right knee seems to be worrisome.
But look, he was still a dominant player when he was playing, he's 24 and wants to come here...
I'm sure JD will do all the diligence on that right leg...
We need good players!

2 knee strains that he never missed time for looks worrisome? He missed one game for a hamstring pull, meanwhile our golden boy missed nearly half a season.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[T0mShane]

8 minutes ago, derp said:

I genuinely think this WR draft class is being massively, massively overrated. We were talking about it in the draft forum earlier - every time I try to come up with a positive pro comp for one of these guys I look at their college production and combine measurements and they're notably worse in at least one of those two areas, usually both, without being meaningfully better than the other. Of course a couple of guys are going to turn out pretty good, but good luck picking which one.

Also think if Brown is the rare guy who actually wants to be on the Jets because of friendships with guys like Moore and maybe Davis (note, I genuinely mean it as if, have no idea, but that's the only scenario that they're giving up draft capital and a contract for him so it applies for this conversation) they're not in a position to turn their nose up at that. It helps that he's 24, he's also pretty prototypical in terms of what they need, and it's the kind of thing they can afford while Wilson's on his rookie deal. Something like 4/$100M give or take a few is pretty crazy but early enough that you're catching him before he declines, he hits FA again before 30. They're really paying for Wilson's development and given he's the guy they hitched the wagon to it makes sense for them to do.

Agreed on all points, but it’s a gamble. Douglas probably has to start gambling, though. I’d still be leery of making this deal and then watching Burks go to the Chargers, or Garrett Wilson end up replacing Brown on Tennessee and both guys outperforming Brown’s numbers here, in passing game Siberia.

[FidelioJet]

12 minutes ago, derp said:

I genuinely think this WR draft class is being massively, massively overrated. We were talking about it in the draft forum earlier - every time I try to come up with a positive pro comp for one of these guys I look at their college production and combine measurements and they're notably worse in at least one of those two areas, usually both, without being meaningfully better than the other. Of course a couple of guys are going to turn out pretty good, but good luck picking which one.

Also think if Brown is the rare guy who actually wants to be on the Jets because of friendships with guys like Moore and maybe Davis (note, I genuinely mean it as if, have no idea, but that's the only scenario that they're giving up draft capital and a contract for him so it applies for this conversation) they're not in a position to turn their nose up at that. It helps that he's 24, he's also pretty prototypical in terms of what they need, and it's the kind of thing they can afford while Wilson's on his rookie deal. Something like 4/$100M give or take a few is pretty crazy but early enough that you're catching him before he declines, he hits FA again before 30. They're really paying for Wilson's development and given he's the guy they hitched the wagon to it makes sense for them to do.

You take a WR anyway in the draft.  You're cutting Davis next year.

This year: Brown, Moore, Davis, BB and #10.....

Next year: Brown, Moore, #10, BB and FA/4throunder etc...

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Agreed on all points, but it’s a gamble. Douglas probably has to start gambling, though. I’d still be leery of making this deal and then watching Burks go to the Chargers, or Garrett Wilson end up replacing Brown on Tennessee and both guys outperforming Brown’s numbers here, in passing game Siberia.

I think this is right.

I really get the feeling he thought that Hill deal was in the bank.  

He's gotta scramble now...We might over pay here, but I think it's probably worth it.

[derp]

7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You take a WR anyway in the draft.  You're cutting Davis next year.

This year: Brown, Moore, Davis, BB and #10.....

Next year: Brown, Moore, #10, BB and FA/4throunder etc...

Probably draft one somewhere but I stand by what I said about the WR draft class. It’s weaker than it gets credit for. Teams are just going to be throwing darts.

[derp]

14 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Agreed on all points, but it’s a gamble. Douglas probably has to start gambling, though. I’d still be leery of making this deal and then watching Burks go to the Chargers, or Garrett Wilson end up replacing Brown on Tennessee and both guys outperforming Brown’s numbers here, in passing game Siberia.

If he’s going before 20 I let another team take a prospect who’s old for his class, never led his college team in receiving yards or put up especially impressive raw stats, and is light which has not lined up nicely with success of first round picks until last year.

Same issue with Burks who I like as a prospect but is raw and doesn’t have standout physical traits to make it clear he can compensate for being raw to make a day one impact like Metcalf or Claypool.

All those guys are going to go too high. Given all the smoke around a veteran I’d guess the team agrees.

I’d twist what you said and say a wide receiver in the draft is a gamble too. Guys are super high variance day one impact wise. You need to pick the right one. You’re just paying for a higher probability of production. At this point the tradeoff probably makes sense.

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think this is right.

I really get the feeling he thought that Hill deal was in the bank.  

He's gotta scramble now...We might over pay here, but I think it's probably worth it.

Yeah, if you’re giving me the choice between spending #10 on Drake London or trading #10 for AJ Brown, it’s no contest that I’m trading for Brown. I don’t care about the money because we’re not re-signing any of our draft picks until 2026 anyway

[genot]

1 hour ago, Tranquilo said:

Robby sucks now 

Lol. What happened to him. He wasn't injured. 

[Jdub03]

16 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You take a WR anyway in the draft.  You're cutting Davis next year.

This year: Brown, Moore, Davis, BB and #10.....

Next year: Brown, Moore, #10, BB and FA/4throunder etc...

Agreed, Brown can be the physical presence we need on the outside, then draft a home run threat in the 2nd rd, or late first with a trade down. This would give us a very solid group, both next year, and for the foreseeable future.

[Tranquilo]

2 minutes ago, genot said:

Lol. What happened to him. He wasn't injured. 

It was weird. Dude straight up couldn’t catch anything. 

[Jdub03]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, if you’re giving me the choice between spending #10 on Drake London or trading #10 for AJ Brown, it’s no contest that I’m trading for Brown. I don’t care about the money because we’re not re-signing any of our draft picks until 2026 anyway

Would you make the same deal for Brown JD had on the table for Hill? He could then trade down in the first to recoup some of the lost capital. 

[oatmeal]

30 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Yeah, specifically that right knee seems to be worrisome.

But look, he was still a dominant player when he was playing, he's 24 and wants to come here...

I'm sure JD will do all the diligence on that right leg...

We need good players!

100% agree 

[lauderdale jet]

1 minute ago, Jdub03 said:

Would you make the same deal for Brown JD had on the table for Hill? He could then trade down in the first to recoup some of the lost capital. 

In a heartbeat

[RedBeardedSavage]

15 minutes ago, derp said:

They're really paying for Wilson's development and given he's the guy they hitched the wagon to it makes sense for them to do.

Despite the premium it's gonna cost with a sign-and-trade like this, I think it's gotta be done for that reason.

Also feel like if JD really does have a good working relationship with Saleh, and wants to keep him around, it's the same situation. They need a considerable improvement this year.

We have the cap and draft assets to do this.

I'd make this gamble if I were him, and as a fan I don't think it's irresponsible at all. 

[T0mShane]

20 minutes ago, derp said:

If he’s going before 20 I let another team take a prospect who’s old for his class, never led his college team in receiving yards or put up especially impressive raw stats, and is light which has not lined up nicely with success of first round picks until last year.

Same issue with Burks who I like as a prospect but is raw and doesn’t have standout physical traits to make it clear he can compensate for being raw to make a day one impact like Metcalf or Claypool.

All those guys are going to go too high. Given all the smoke around a veteran I’d guess the team agrees.

I’d twist what you said and say a wide receiver in the draft is a gamble too. Guys are super high variance day one impact wise. You need to pick the right one. You’re just paying for a higher probability of production. At this point the tradeoff probably makes sense.

I’m just going by the likelihood that a receiver drafted in the first round can get you 1,000 yards and six to eight TDs, which has been Brown’s average level of production, and which isn’t exactly unattainable. If Brown was putting up 1,300 yard per, 10 TD years, it’s a no-doubter, but he doesn’t really look to be that level of player.

[T0mShane]

13 minutes ago, Jdub03 said:

Would you make the same deal for Brown JD had on the table for Hill? He could then trade down in the first to recoup some of the lost capital. 

Both twos and a three? Probably.