Trade idea: A.J. Brown

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

I was listening to Connors Pod at work when the Hill stuff hit. He took 45 seconds on his phone and said, "yup, it's real. Jets are making an offer". 

 

He's a self absorbed bitch, but he's legit. 

Right now, as far as I can tell - he's the only one getting real, inside information from senior Jet management.

They'll want to quell this quickly before fans get too excited if there's nothing to it...and it'll go through him.

Have you seen him broach the AJ subject at all?  I haven't checked..

[derp]

9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’m just going by the likelihood that a receiver drafted in the first round can get you 1,000 yards and six to eight TDs, which has been Brown’s average level of production, and which isn’t exactly unattainable. If Brown was putting up 1,300 yard per, 10 TD years, it’s a no-doubter, but he doesn’t really look to be that level of player.

Last year’s class was 2/5 on that in the first round, the year before was 1/6, and each of those classes was significantly, significantly better than this one. Like, not close.

[Irish Jet]

On 3/25/2022 at 3:46 PM, Snell41 said:

 

Yup, second round garbage again. I loved Stephen Hill/Denzel Mims/Devin Smith/Elijah “pulled my vagina and miss half the season” Moore. We save so much cap space drafting these guys it lets us maneuver to sign Super Bowl caliber guys like Jarvis Landry and Keenan Cole. Ooooohh wait I forgot how Uzomah is gonna become a world class TE now that he has a real opportunity with the Jets.

Jets world class formula:

Draft project QB # 2 overall and then give him Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis and a bunch of mid late round busts to throw to. It’s awesome how it’s working out for us!


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

Speaking of garbage.

[Irish Jet]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Right now, as far as I can tell - he's the only one getting real, inside information from senior Jet management.

They’re clearly giving him information for him to put positive spin on everything. Couldn’t get off Douglas’ dick for every single signing.

[genot]

20 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

It was weird. Dude straight up couldn’t catch anything. 

He didn't have that trouble when Bridgewater was the QB. He really didn't have that problem here either. He never was good at contested catches. He isn't the best after he catches the ball. I know that.We wouldn't be bringing him here to be a featured receiver. Just part of a rotation. He gets open, and is always a threat to get open downfield. That helps out our other receivers and tight ends. You  have to have a safety look his way when he's on the field. Especially with a strong armed QB like Wilson

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

They’re clearly giving him information for him to put positive spin on everything. Couldn’t get off Douglas’ dick for every single signing.

Surely the case...

With that said, as long as you ignore the editorializing - the information can be trusted.

[DetroitRed]

Cimini on his podcast made it clear he has no inside info on AJ Brown.  Just noting that him and Moore are very close and if contract talks break down, the Jets would be players 

[oatmeal]

It’s interesting  nobody from the NYJ or Tenn T, are shooting this rumor down yet… ??

[FootballLove]

Trump: "I prefer soldiers who DON'T get captured"

Me: "I prefer football players who DON'T get injured"

LOL just some crazy sh*t that popped into my skull.

Anyway, in the Cap era where all 32 teams are on a level playing field cap wise, it's imperative that a GM field a team with more talent than he's actually paying for. Generally, this is what "Build thru the draft" means. 6-10 starters on rookie deals that are balling out, giving a GM loads more talent than he's actually paying for (with those guys). Take the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Le'Mar Chase BOTH on rookie deals...Bengals are paying about $15m/yr for both players versus $80m/yr they'll be paying down the road. This gives the Bengals TONS more talent than they are actually paying for and gives them TONS of cap flexibility to bring in whoever they want, better lineman, better pass rushers, etc. Flexibility they WON'T have once those rookie contracts are up. Seattle's Russell Wilson and the Legion Of Boom is another example...all Rookies providing tons more talent than the cap $'s they absorb. 

Some players just don't give the talent vs what they're getting paid. Rookies bust, heck even highly paid FAs bust. Players get injured, and still get paid. That's why it imperative to have as many players as possible providing MORE talent than what they're getting paid (ie, build thru the draft).

So even if Brown brings the talent level that his new contract demands ($20-$30m/yr), it may not be good for the team as a whole. It may be better to use those draft picks ourselves, draft two WRs who cost pennies but provide millions in talent. I agree that if we were a mature team with Zack Wilson already proving he's the man, maybe even on his 2nd contract, and we were one WR away from winning it all, then yes, juggle the cap, rob from the future if need be, and bring in a very talented (but very expensive) WR like Brown.

But for now? With our team in the early throws of a total rebuild, with ????s surrounding our QB, it may be better for JD to stick with building thru the draft, maximizing talent while minimizing overall cap costs.

But DANG! It would be amazing to watch. 

[oatmeal]

On 3/25/2022 at 11:46 AM, Snell41 said:

 

Yup, second round garbage again. I loved Stephen Hill/Denzel Mims/Devin Smith/Elijah “pulled my vagina and miss half the season” Moore. We save so much cap space drafting these guys it lets us maneuver to sign Super Bowl caliber guys like Jarvis Landry and Keenan Cole. Ooooohh wait I forgot how Uzomah is gonna become a world class TE now that he has a real opportunity with the Jets.

Jets world class formula:

Draft project QB # 2 overall and then give him Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis and a bunch of mid late round busts to throw to. It’s awesome how it’s working out for us!


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

“Elijah pulled my vagina and miss half the season, Moore” - LMFAOOOOO ???

[oatmeal]

3 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Trump: "I prefer soldiers who DON'T get captured"

Me: "I prefer football players who DON'T get injured"

LOL just some crazy sh*t that popped into my skull.

Anyway, in the Cap era where all 32 teams are on a level playing field cap wise, it's imperative that a GM field a team with more talent than he's actually paying for. Generally, this is what "Build thru the draft" means. 6-10 starters on rookie deals that are balling out, giving a GM loads more talent than he's actually paying for (with those guys). Take the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Le'Mar Chase BOTH on rookie deals...Bengals are paying about $15m/yr for both players versus $80m/yr they'll be paying down the road. This gives the Bengals TONS more talent than they are actually paying for and gives them TONS of cap flexibility to bring in whoever they want, better lineman, better pass rushers, etc. Flexibility they WON'T have once those rookie contracts are up. Seattle's Russell Wilson and the Legion Of Boom is another example...all Rookies providing tons more talent than the cap $'s they absorb. 

Some players just don't give the talent vs what they're getting paid. Rookies bust, heck even highly paid FAs bust. Players get injured, and still get paid. That's why it imperative to have as many players as possible providing MORE talent than what they're getting paid (ie, build thru the draft).

So even if Brown brings the talent level that his new contract demands ($20-$30m/yr), it may not be good for the team as a whole. It may be better to use those draft picks ourselves, draft two WRs who cost pennies but provide millions in talent. I agree that if we were a mature team with Zack Wilson already proving he's the man, maybe even on his 2nd contract, and we were one WR away from winning it all, then yes, juggle the cap, rob from the future if need be, and bring in a very talented (but very expensive) WR like Brown.

But for now? With our team in the early throws of a total rebuild, with ????s surrounding our QB, it may be better for JD to stick with building thru the draft, maximizing talent while minimizing overall cap costs.

But DANG! It would be amazing to watch. 

JD was about to give up the world for a 28 year old abusive turd, I think we can put down the build through the draft and “high character” taking points now tbh ?‍♂️

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Trump: "I prefer soldiers who DON'T get captured"

Me: "I prefer football players who DON'T get injured"

LOL just some crazy sh*t that popped into my skull.

Anyway, in the Cap era where all 32 teams are on a level playing field cap wise, it's imperative that a GM field a team with more talent than he's actually paying for. Generally, this is what "Build thru the draft" means. 6-10 starters on rookie deals that are balling out, giving a GM loads more talent than he's actually paying for (with those guys). Take the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Le'Mar Chase BOTH on rookie deals...Bengals are paying about $15m/yr for both players versus $80m/yr they'll be paying down the road. This gives the Bengals TONS more talent than they are actually paying for and gives them TONS of cap flexibility to bring in whoever they want, better lineman, better pass rushers, etc. Flexibility they WON'T have once those rookie contracts are up. Seattle's Russell Wilson and the Legion Of Boom is another example...all Rookies providing tons more talent than the cap $'s they absorb. 

Some players just don't give the talent vs what they're getting paid. Rookies bust, heck even highly paid FAs bust. Players get injured, and still get paid. That's why it imperative to have as many players as possible providing MORE talent than what they're getting paid (ie, build thru the draft).

So even if Brown brings the talent level that his new contract demands ($20-$30m/yr), it may not be good for the team as a whole. It may be better to use those draft picks ourselves, draft two WRs who cost pennies but provide millions in talent. I agree that if we were a mature team with Zack Wilson already proving he's the man, maybe even on his 2nd contract, and we were one WR away from winning it all, then yes, juggle the cap, rob from the future if need be, and bring in a very talented (but very expensive) WR like Brown.

But for now? With our team in the early throws of a total rebuild, with ????s surrounding our QB, it may be better for JD to stick with building thru the draft, maximizing talent while minimizing overall cap costs.

But DANG! It would be amazing to watch. 

I think this is fair when you look at traditional Jet moves. Overpaying for other teams garbage    

but you don’t turn your backs on the likes of Hill, Metcalf or Brown.  
These are legitimate game changing players that we haven’t seen in almost two decades. 

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Last year’s class was 2/5 on that in the first round, the year before was 1/6, and each of those classes was significantly, significantly better than this one. Like, not close.

I wanted to do a little research on this, so I was scrolling back through drafts by position and, holy sh*t, you’re as likely to find a productive receiver at 81 as you are at 11. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. 

[FootballLove]

1 hour ago, oatmeal said:

JD was about to give up the world for a 28 year old abusive turd, I think we can put down the build through the draft and “high character” taking points now tbh ?‍♂️

I realize that but to be honest smells a bit of 'panic'. Flys in the face of 'build thru the draft'. Dropping $30m/yr and 5 draft picks for a WR smells like a MacCagnan move to me.

[FootballLove]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I think this is fair when you look at traditional Jet moves. Overpaying for other teams garbage    

but you don’t turn your backs on the likes of Hill, Metcalf or Brown.  
These are legitimate game changing players that we haven’t seen in almost two decades. 

Totally agree, but we don't need a GM to just buy another team's proven talent. Anyone can do that. What I want JD to be is a great GM who finds OUR OWN Hill, Metcalf, and Brown in the draft, and have those great talents play for pennies for 4 years while we use that cap space to beef up other areas of the roster.

But to be honest, maybe I'm asking for too much.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

28 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I wanted to do a little research on this, so I was scrolling back through drafts by position and, holy sh*t, you’re as likely to find a productive receiver at 81 as you are at 11. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. 

Which is why you double dip every year in the mid rounds to keep a pipeline going. 

[DetroitRed]

1 hour ago, FootballLove said:

Trump: "I prefer soldiers who DON'T get captured"

Me: "I prefer football players who DON'T get injured"

LOL just some crazy sh*t that popped into my skull.

Anyway, in the Cap era where all 32 teams are on a level playing field cap wise, it's imperative that a GM field a team with more talent than he's actually paying for. Generally, this is what "Build thru the draft" means. 6-10 starters on rookie deals that are balling out, giving a GM loads more talent than he's actually paying for (with those guys). Take the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Le'Mar Chase BOTH on rookie deals...Bengals are paying about $15m/yr for both players versus $80m/yr they'll be paying down the road. This gives the Bengals TONS more talent than they are actually paying for and gives them TONS of cap flexibility to bring in whoever they want, better lineman, better pass rushers, etc. Flexibility they WON'T have once those rookie contracts are up. Seattle's Russell Wilson and the Legion Of Boom is another example...all Rookies providing tons more talent than the cap $'s they absorb. 

Some players just don't give the talent vs what they're getting paid. Rookies bust, heck even highly paid FAs bust. Players get injured, and still get paid. That's why it imperative to have as many players as possible providing MORE talent than what they're getting paid (ie, build thru the draft).

So even if Brown brings the talent level that his new contract demands ($20-$30m/yr), it may not be good for the team as a whole. It may be better to use those draft picks ourselves, draft two WRs who cost pennies but provide millions in talent. I agree that if we were a mature team with Zack Wilson already proving he's the man, maybe even on his 2nd contract, and we were one WR away from winning it all, then yes, juggle the cap, rob from the future if need be, and bring in a very talented (but very expensive) WR like Brown.

But for now? With our team in the early throws of a total rebuild, with ????s surrounding our QB, it may be better for JD to stick with building thru the draft, maximizing talent while minimizing overall cap costs.

But DANG! It would be amazing to watch. 

 The playing field is not level when you get taxed up to your ears in states like NY, NJ and Cali

[derp]

36 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I wanted to do a little research on this, so I was scrolling back through drafts by position and, holy sh*t, you’re as likely to find a productive receiver at 81 as you are at 11. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. 

As much as internet scouts are fun, the competitive fantasy football industry is pretty invested in figuring out what kinds of traits lead to guys being successful in the pros. Granted there’s a little extra weighting on TD scoring since that’s weighted heavily in fantasy, but it’s an interesting perspective to balance the pure “scouting”.

Suffice it to say teams don’t focus on the stuff that’s correlated to success early (namely market share production, breakout age, and weight - hand size matters too, bigger the better for both) and do focus on stuff like speed and raw production that’s just not correlated with pro success. There are obviously exceptions and no absolutes but I’ve been banging the WR at 10 is a bad idea drum for a while and that’s why.

[RedBeardedSavage]

37 minutes ago, derp said:

As much as internet scouts are fun, the competitive fantasy football industry is pretty invested in figuring out what kinds of traits lead to guys being successful in the pros. Granted there’s a little extra weighting on TD scoring since that’s weighted heavily in fantasy, but it’s an interesting perspective to balance the pure “scouting”.

Suffice it to say teams don’t focus on the stuff that’s correlated to success early (namely market share production, breakout age, and weight - hand size matters too, bigger the better for both) and do focus on stuff like speed and raw production that’s just not correlated with pro success. There are obviously exceptions and no absolutes but I’ve been banging the WR at 10 is a bad idea drum for a while and that’s why.

What interests me here is how the breakout age/dominator ranking applies to other positions as well.

Clearly it's a good tool when analyzing receivers - Ja Marr Chase was 19 and truly dominated the SEC. 

But as a big proponent of drafting Jermaine Johnson II, clearly the best argument against him is late bloomer. And it seems intuitive on the surface - a 22 year old rushing against 19 year old tackles/guards is going to have an advantage. 

Granted, the fantasy community doesn't give a f about defenders, but I'm curious if there is any research on this that you're aware of?

[derp]

8 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

What interests me here is how the breakout age/dominator ranking applies to other positions as well.

Clearly it's a good tool when analyzing receivers - Ja Marr Chase was 19 and truly dominated the SEC. 

But as a big proponent of drafting Jermaine Johnson II, clearly the best argument against him is late bloomer. And it seems intuitive on the surface - a 22 year old rushing against 19 year old tackles/guards is going to have an advantage. 

Granted, the fantasy doesn't give a f about defenders, but I'm curious if there is any research on this that you're aware of?

It’s a great question, I’m not aware of any research to that end but I’d think the same logic kind of holds - exactly as you framed it. There are other arguments against Johnson you can build from there, he had 3 sacks against Miami, at least two of which were against a really overmatched right tackle who he basically just ran through, and another two and a half against a Jacksonville State that was obviously overmatched. It’s genuinely hard to tell how he translates to the professional level because he is a great athlete.

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 minute ago, derp said:

It’s a great question, I’m not aware of any research to that end but I’d think the same logic kind of holds - exactly as you framed it. There are other arguments against Johnson you can build from there, he had 3 sacks against Miami, at least two of which were against a really overmatched right tackle who he basically just ran through, and another two and a half against a Jacksonville State that was obviously overmatched. It’s genuinely hard to tell how he translates to the professional level because he is a great athlete.

Appreciate the insight.

It certainly does seem intuitive to apply the same logic. He also looked dominant in the Notre Dame game, even if it didn't quite show up in conventional stats - but the ND offensive line was uncharacteristically weak this year.

But of course, as you alluded to toward the end, there are things like arm length, 10 yard split and, to a lesser extent, senior bowl week reps working in his favor.

I'm just an amateur shootin-from-the-hip on this one, but I'm always open to learn more. Would be cool to find something about breakout age with defenders. 

[derp]

21 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Appreciate the insight.

It certainly does seem intuitive to apply the same logic. He also looked dominant in the Notre Dame game, even if it didn't quite show up in conventional stats - but the ND offensive line was uncharacteristically weak this year.

But of course, as you alluded to toward the end, there are things like arm length, 10 yard split and, to a lesser extent, senior bowl week reps working in his favor.

I'm just an amateur shootin-from-the-hip on this one, but I'm always open to learn more. Would be cool to find something about breakout age with defenders. 

It’s especially complicated for Johnson because he’s not just a senior, he’s a redshirt senior. That was his fifth year in college, and while he was 22 all season he was an old 22 and he’ll turn 24 late in his rookie year.

I think with him I find the “Travon Walker is overrated, draft Jermaine Johnson” arguments to be especially annoying because when they were the same age they played at the same school - Johnson had 2.5 sacks as a junior at Georgia and Walker had 6. EDGE players are rarely finished products when they hit the NFL, it’s a big advantage from a production and development standpoint that Johnson had 2 more years in college than most of these guys.

Another thing I’ll add is that the flip side of this is with older offensive linemen, every once in awhile there’s a guy who was dominant and gets drafted a little older, I don’t think it’s worked out well for the drafting team. Johnson would be a pretty easy fade for me if he wasn’t such a great athlete. As things stand right now I think I’d be happiest with him if they traded down to the mid teens, which probably means he’s firmly in play at 10, but to me the talk of him at 4 is pretty wild. Maybe it happens but I’d be a little surprised.

Last thought is the Jets’ needs. They want to start 4 DL, pass rush heavy edge (should’ve been Lawson last year), twitchy explosive interior DL (Quinnen Williams), big edge who can hold blockers and kick in to rush from DT on passing downs (JFM), and a big run stuffing DT (Fatukasi last year). The other key role is the edge who comes in on passing downs with the big DE kicking inside. The only guy not returning is Fatukasi - that’s the hole. The 49ers last year improved when the guy in the JFM role - Arik Armstead - kicked inside more.

So are they adding at DT, is Rankins playing, or are they kicking JFM in and they need a guy who can play the big edge role but is maybe a little more explosive? They added Jacob Martin for the third down pass rusher role. They can obviously add more all over the DL because they rotate heavily but the needs are more the bigger edge role and DT right now.

I absolutely think they can add a big time pass rusher and rotate guys in okay if they like a guy because it’s such a premium position. But I bet they’re more focused on the big edge and defensive tackle from a pure needs standpoint so I don’t think they’re going to force the pass rushing edge if they don’t think it’s the right guy.

[82nd Airborne]

3 hours ago, FootballLove said:

Trump: "I prefer soldiers who DON'T get captured"

Fuktard!

[Sperm Edwards]

17 hours ago, Snell41 said:

 

Herm Edwards wasn’t as bad a coach as you think. He had some really great coaching qualities. There, I said something nice. I actually miss the Herm Edwards days, it was infinitely more entertaining than what we have now.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

I meant say something nice about a Jet who wasn’t sent to us by the devil himself. 

[Jet_Engine1]

5 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Right now, as far as I can tell - he's the only one getting real, inside information from senior Jet management.

They'll want to quell this quickly before fans get too excited if there's nothing to it...and it'll go through him.

Have you seen him broach the AJ subject at all?  I haven't checked..

Not yet. Will be interesting to see what comes up.

 

And clearly they like Connors reporting. He's good at staying neutral as a reporter and differentiating between reporting news and rumors and his own opinions. 

 

[RedBeardedSavage]

18 hours ago, derp said:

It’s especially complicated for Johnson because he’s not just a senior, he’s a redshirt senior. That was his fifth year in college, and while he was 22 all season he was an old 22 and he’ll turn 24 late in his rookie year.

I think with him I find the “Travon Walker is overrated, draft Jermaine Johnson” arguments to be especially annoying because when they were the same age they played at the same school - Johnson had 2.5 sacks as a junior at Georgia and Walker had 6. EDGE players are rarely finished products when they hit the NFL, it’s a big advantage from a production and development standpoint that Johnson had 2 more years in college than most of these guys.

Another thing I’ll add is that the flip side of this is with older offensive linemen, every once in awhile there’s a guy who was dominant and gets drafted a little older, I don’t think it’s worked out well for the drafting team. Johnson would be a pretty easy fade for me if he wasn’t such a great athlete. As things stand right now I think I’d be happiest with him if they traded down to the mid teens, which probably means he’s firmly in play at 10, but to me the talk of him at 4 is pretty wild. Maybe it happens but I’d be a little surprised.

First off, really appreciate the time you took to write this out. This is the type of content I come here for... well, and to laugh with other Jets fans at the continued dysfunction.

It's a fair point about Travon's production at that age versus Jermaine's. The distinction I'd make, and again this makes the eval only more difficult, is the arc of Jermaine's college career.

Academically ineligible / Last Chance U > Georgia > FSU.

The year we're comparing Travon v Jermaine is his first year as a transfer.

• Jermaine had 403 snaps in his two years @ Georgia
• Travon Walker had well over 500 snaps in just 2021

The disparity in opportunity alone could definitely count for the difference in production. 

As we said, the age thing, I'm not sure what to do about that. Boye Mafe is also a redshirt senior (and doesn't have the ideal arm length). It's entirely reasonable to point out the difference between a 22 year old and a 19 year old and give the 22 year old an advantage. I have absolutely no good argument against that - and I think it's a fair black mark on his resume. I think if JJ II was a true Junior, with this tape and this combine, he'd be the #1 pick...

Speaking of his tape - He's a good run defender as well, and plays like his hair is on fire - dude had 70 tackles last year from the edge, that's insane. He went on to crush 1v1's in the senior bowl. And then he hits most of the key athletic metrics; <1.6 10 yard split, >34" arms, 4.58 40. 

I also like how dude has overcome adversity (academically ineligible out of high school to ACC defensive player of the year + potential top 10 pick) and seems to be "all-in" on football. 

Does any of what I just said guarantee success? No. But I still think JJ II is the one I'd bet on, even if his resume isn't perfect. 

Quote

Last thought is the Jets’ needs. They want to start 4 DL, pass rush heavy edge (should’ve been Lawson last year), twitchy explosive interior DL (Quinnen Williams), big edge who can hold blockers and kick in to rush from DT on passing downs (JFM), and a big run stuffing DT (Fatukasi last year). The other key role is the edge who comes in on passing downs with the big DE kicking inside. The only guy not returning is Fatukasi - that’s the hole. The 49ers last year improved when the guy in the JFM role - Arik Armstead - kicked inside more.

So are they adding at DT, is Rankins playing, or are they kicking JFM in and they need a guy who can play the big edge role but is maybe a little more explosive? They added Jacob Martin for the third down pass rusher role. They can obviously add more all over the DL because they rotate heavily but the needs are more the bigger edge role and DT right now.

I absolutely think they can add a big time pass rusher and rotate guys in okay if they like a guy because it’s such a premium position. But I bet they’re more focused on the big edge and defensive tackle from a pure needs standpoint so I don’t think they’re going to force the pass rushing edge if they don’t think it’s the right guy.

I think this is a good illustration of why the heavy edge could be in play - but it's also just a snapshot. Lawson is cuttable after this year - a 300k dad cap hit if we cut him after the '22 season. With them just having re-signed JFM (as the big edge/Arik Armstead), one could theorize that Lawson was a stopgap solution until we drafted our Nick Bosa?

No matter what I agree that DT, especially in the two-down role is a clear need. As it stands right now? If I were the GM and I could use my 2 #2's to land a receiver like Brown, McLaurin, DK or Deebo - I'd be drafting the edge (JJ II) and IDL (Jordan Davis) with my first two picks. 

But if you can't swing that trade for the receiver, that changes, for me at least, the ability to have the luxury of Jordan Davis.

Thanks again for the dope reply.

[derp]

22 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

First off, really appreciate the time you took to write this out. This is the type of content I come here for... well, and to laugh with other Jets fans at the continued dysfunction.

It's a fair point about Travon's production at that age versus Jermaine's. The distinction I'd make, and again this makes the eval only more difficult, is the arc of Jermaine's college career.

Academically ineligible / Last Chance U > Georgia > FSU.

The year we're comparing Travon v Jermaine is his first year as a transfer.

• Jermaine had 403 snaps in his two years @ Georgia
• Travon Walker had well over 500 snaps in just 2021

The disparity in opportunity alone could definitely count for the difference in production. 

As we said, the age thing, I'm not sure what to do about that. Boye Mafe is also a redshirt senior (and doesn't have the ideal arm length). It's entirely reasonable to point out the difference between a 22 year old and a 19 year old and give the 22 year old an advantage. I have absolutely no good argument against that - and I think it's a fair black mark on his resume. I think if JJ II was a true Junior, with this tape and this combine, he'd be the #1 pick...

Speaking of his tape - He's a good run defender as well, and plays like his hair is on fire - dude had 70 tackles last year from the edge, that's insane. He went on to crush 1v1's in the senior bowl. And then he hits most of the key athletic metrics; <1.6 10 yard split, >34" arms, 4.58 40. 

I also like how dude has overcome adversity (academically ineligible out of high school to ACC defensive player of the year + potential top 10 pick) and seems to be "all-in" on football. 

Does any of what I just said guarantee success? No. But I still think JJ II is the one I'd bet on, even if his resume isn't perfect. 

I think this is a good illustration of why the heavy edge could be in play - but it's also just a snapshot. Lawson is cuttable after this year - a 300k dad cap hit if we cut him after the '22 season. With them just having re-signed JFM (as the big edge/Arik Armstead), one could theorize that Lawson was a stopgap solution until we drafted our Nick Bosa?

No matter what I agree that DT, especially in the two-down role is a clear need. As it stands right now? If I were the GM and I could use my 2 #2's to land a receiver like Brown, McLaurin, DK or Deebo - I'd be drafting the edge (JJ II) and IDL (Jordan Davis) with my first two picks. 

But if you can't swing that trade for the receiver, that changes, for me at least, the ability to have the luxury of Jordan Davis.

Thanks again for the dope reply.

Genuinely been a fun exchange and I really appreciate your thoughts as well.

Snaps could absolutely explain the difference in production, but it also comes down to being good enough to earn those snaps right? This Georgia team won a title, Walker earned snaps on a loaded defensive line at an age Johnson wasn’t earning snaps on Georgia.

I do think Johnson’s tape is being overrated a little. If he doesn’t have those two big sack production games I referred to earlier and end up in the double digits I’m not so sure he gets credit for having excellent tape to the extent that he does. Think Hutchinson or OL would very much be in play at #1 still if Johnson was a true junior.

The most of the key metrics note is important too. He hasn’t done shuttles or three cone yet and had a disappointing vertical. We definitely don’t have a complete picture of him despite the high RAS. His pro day is tomorrow I think? Hopefully he improves the vertical and does the change of direction drills. The vertical is a good test of explosiveness for pass rushers and the poor one is definitely a bit of a flag. Good three come would be big.

I was digging through highly drafted pass rushers and trying to find an older one - Khalil Mack went #5 and had a somewhat similar trajectory, 8 sacks as a junior and then 10 as a senior up at Buffalo. So that’s obviously encouraging, he was like a month older when drafted than Johnson will be and obviously a late bloomer. Mack did crush the combine including a great vertical, didn’t hit the three cone threshold but had a good shuttle and if memory serves had a good Senior Bowl. I haven’t done a deep dive honestly but that was a positive one I figured I’d share.

Was also thinking about metrics stuff and while I think breakout age has weight for pass rushers, dominator rating probably wouldn’t factor in. For pass catchers I think the purpose is more that they’re reliant on quarterback play, so if you’re on a 4,000 yard passing offense it’s not as impressive to have a 1,000 yard season as if you’re on a 2,500 yard passing offense. Pass rushers are more independent, can you beat the guy in front of you. Obviously there’s a benefit to less blocking attention from other good players but guys can take each other’s sacks too on a good front.

And absolutely agree, doesn’t have to be a heavy edge or a DT in the first round either - but I do think those are the larger needs on paper right now. Pass rushing edge is more valuable than either of those things. But I think the general fan expectation is a highly drafted pass rusher starts across from Lawson - not your perspective and I think your take is completely reasonable and makes sense. But I think the overall perception of the pass rusher need is out of whack. It’s more like what Saleh said in the presser today, they could have the Fearsome Foursome and he’d still want a pass rusher if he’s there. If they like someone like Johnson they can absolutely get after it but I think they’ll be opportunistic more than anything.

I personally really like the idea of an explosive heavy edge because I think JFM inside would be really disruptive. But I wouldn’t be opposed to double dipping either. There seems to be a small contingent that likes Walker and a big Johnson over Walker contingent, I’d happily see them draft both Johnson and Walker kind of like your Johnson-Davis idea and let Q and JFM wreak havoc inside with Walker as an explosive heavy edge who can kick inside and Johnson coming in to play across Lawson on passing downs and ultimately taking over for him, plus Huff and Martin getting some edge snaps with a heavy rotation. Would really really like to see them improve the DL’s pass rush a ability and the run game on offense as I think that’s the best path to getting better.  Davis is really interesting though, it all boils down to what they think they can get out of him as a pass rusher. Could see them loving him.

The WR thing is tricky, they absolutely could use one. They can get back into the first round pretty easily too if they go DL-DL. I think this class is pretty mediocre personally, although if London shows he can run he ticks up considerably. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

10 hours ago, derp said:

Genuinely been a fun exchange and I really appreciate your thoughts as well.

Snaps could absolutely explain the difference in production, but it also comes down to being good enough to earn those snaps right? This Georgia team won a title, Walker earned snaps on a loaded defensive line at an age Johnson wasn’t earning snaps on Georgia.

I do think Johnson’s tape is being overrated a little. If he doesn’t have those two big sack production games I referred to earlier and end up in the double digits I’m not so sure he gets credit for having excellent tape to the extent that he does. Think Hutchinson or OL would very much be in play at #1 still if Johnson was a true junior.

The most of the key metrics note is important too. He hasn’t done shuttles or three cone yet and had a disappointing vertical. We definitely don’t have a complete picture of him despite the high RAS. His pro day is tomorrow I think? Hopefully he improves the vertical and does the change of direction drills. The vertical is a good test of explosiveness for pass rushers and the poor one is definitely a bit of a flag. Good three come would be big.

I was digging through highly drafted pass rushers and trying to find an older one - Khalil Mack went #5 and had a somewhat similar trajectory, 8 sacks as a junior and then 10 as a senior up at Buffalo. So that’s obviously encouraging, he was like a month older when drafted than Johnson will be and obviously a late bloomer. Mack did crush the combine including a great vertical, didn’t hit the three cone threshold but had a good shuttle and if memory serves had a good Senior Bowl. I haven’t done a deep dive honestly but that was a positive one I figured I’d share.

Was also thinking about metrics stuff and while I think breakout age has weight for pass rushers, dominator rating probably wouldn’t factor in. For pass catchers I think the purpose is more that they’re reliant on quarterback play, so if you’re on a 4,000 yard passing offense it’s not as impressive to have a 1,000 yard season as if you’re on a 2,500 yard passing offense. Pass rushers are more independent, can you beat the guy in front of you. Obviously there’s a benefit to less blocking attention from other good players but guys can take each other’s sacks too on a good front.

And absolutely agree, doesn’t have to be a heavy edge or a DT in the first round either - but I do think those are the larger needs on paper right now. Pass rushing edge is more valuable than either of those things. But I think the general fan expectation is a highly drafted pass rusher starts across from Lawson - not your perspective and I think your take is completely reasonable and makes sense. But I think the overall perception of the pass rusher need is out of whack. It’s more like what Saleh said in the presser today, they could have the Fearsome Foursome and he’d still want a pass rusher if he’s there. If they like someone like Johnson they can absolutely get after it but I think they’ll be opportunistic more than anything.

I personally really like the idea of an explosive heavy edge because I think JFM inside would be really disruptive. But I wouldn’t be opposed to double dipping either. There seems to be a small contingent that likes Walker and a big Johnson over Walker contingent, I’d happily see them draft both Johnson and Walker kind of like your Johnson-Davis idea and let Q and JFM wreak havoc inside with Walker as an explosive heavy edge who can kick inside and Johnson coming in to play across Lawson on passing downs and ultimately taking over for him, plus Huff and Martin getting some edge snaps with a heavy rotation. Would really really like to see them improve the DL’s pass rush a ability and the run game on offense as I think that’s the best path to getting better.  Davis is really interesting though, it all boils down to what they think they can get out of him as a pass rusher. Could see them loving him.

The WR thing is tricky, they absolutely could use one. They can get back into the first round pretty easily too if they go DL-DL. I think this class is pretty mediocre personally, although if London shows he can run he ticks up considerably. 

It's interesting here, because I read this and I'm well aware that you know more than I do about scouting and this sport. 

And yet my stubborn self is convinced this is the edge I'm taking this year! Granted, I want to be rational, unemotional and acknowledge the flaws - every player is a calculated risk, some more-so than others, and I don't like when people just ignore the flaws because of scouting consensus or because they like the 'good' in the prospect despite the flaws.

• FSU pro day tomorrow morning, I'd like to see the vert, 3 cone and bench 
• Interesting about Mack, I didn't know that, but I also don't want to attribute too much to that - it's one player, one time. And yea 40 inch vertical vs 32" is a massive difference
• I get that the sacks came in bunches, and that's a concern - but what's different with JJ II was just the hustle. He's f***ing everywhere, even if it doesn't always show up in sacks. He reminds me of Maxx Crosby in that way. I watched a decent amount of Raiders games this year, and Crosby just pops off the screen, even if he doesn't always 'finish the play'. He's just around the ball a lot. So I think of JJ II as a better athletically/more naturally talented Maxx Crosby? And who knows where Crosby goes in a redraft of that year?

And I hear ya on the edge need. With the return of Lawson and the re-signing of JFM, theoretically we're good there on paper... but just as you say, and the head coach said today, Saleh/JD want to be the type of organization that is always taking pass rushers and offensive lineman. 

Those are the guys they get excited about. I like that approach. I wonder if the Becton "might not be ready for OTA's" news also pushes us more toward offensive tackle as well...

That FSU pro day tomorrow hopefully gives more insight on this topic, and if Drake London actually tests/times in a week or so, that will seemingly give us a far clearer picture since JD is rumored to be enamored with him.