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Simms WR ratings


hmhertz
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All receivers have good highlights but the ones of Williams are special.  He’s blowing guys away and plays tough for his size.  I bet he goes earlier then forecasted.  This is a building year and we won’t have to wait that long for him to be available.  If Zach proves he’s our QB moving forward that means we saw some good things this year and maybe we are  a contending team next year.  This guy would be one of those necessary pieces that makes it work.  

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3 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

Simms rated Wilson ahead of Jones and Davis Mills wasn’t even in his top 5 ranking last year 

 

why do people think this guy knows anything?

Simms is the worst

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5 hours ago, Icer said:

Simms past two years

 

2020
WR #5 - Tee Higgins "He's the premier jump-ball guy in the draft"
WR #4 - KJ Hamler "Hollywood Brown makes me feel more comfortable about him"
WR #3 - Henry Ruggs III "He's a game-changer...a lot like Tyreek Hill"
WR #2 - Justin Jefferson “One of the can’t-miss prospects in the whole draft”
WR #1 - CeeDee Lamb “DeAndre Hopkins’ size, but Jarvis Landry with the ball in his hands”

2021
WR #6 Terrace Marshall Jr (LSU) - "aka Justin Jefferson Jr"
WR #5 Kadarius Toney (Florida) - "He and Ja'Marr Chase are the most dangerous with the ball in their hands."
WR #4 Jaylen Waddle (Alabama) - "I like him better than I liked Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy."
WR #3 Dyami Brown (UNC) - "This is my guy. There was nobody that could run with him."
WR #2 DeVonta Smith (Alabama) - "His physicality was the most pleasant surprise of all."
WR #1 Ja'Marr Chase (LSU) - "He's a slam dunk. He's the safest and the best. He has everything."

Doesn't look that bad in hindsight, but not perfect either

No Elijah Moore last year?

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5 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Re Garrett Wilson, to me he has the highest floor of any WR but I'm not sure his ceiling is as high as some of the other guys.

I like his ballsy pick of pierce in that group.

Alec Pierce is a sleeper that begs a 3rd round look. Mims is on his way out after this year. He’d be a nice addition to the WR group. 

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I disagree with his rankings a little bit, but overall his evaluation is pretty good, I cant argue much of it. 

I found it interesting I think in private convos on here Ive likened Pierce to Jordy Nelson as well, but as a poor mans jordy nelson.  I also was surprised he ran as fast as he did, I did not get that from watching the tape.  Same with Watson.  Both 40 times surprised me to be honest.  

Simms takes some big time swings sometimes, which he probably does on guys he likes just to grab some headlines.  But they're not just blind swings, he has concrete good evaluations and reasons for why he does it, and they're not out of the question to be correct.  I would have had london higher and wilson in the top 5 but thats me.  I also like wilson better than olave personally. 

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15 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

My gut feeling is JD will not pick a wideout at #10. 

I hope JD can find a way to get Williams.  Either by trading down.  Or by trading back into 1st round.  Or else it's London after making those same type of moves. 

 

Well between the alleged interest in Mike Williams before he was tagged, the leaked Jets inquiry on Metcalf, and the outright public offer for Hill, I’d say it’s a position he’s again targeted in a big way this spring.

It's clear he’s not staying pat with 3 WRs + Mims. That doesn’t necessarily mean drafting as early as possible, but those aren’t the interest areas of someone who’s just playing the value game of dollars and/or draft points per yard. Quite the contrary, since all 3 of those would be sacrificing value in favor of greater certainty.

I’ve heard it said plenty that the WR value in this draft is either later down in round 1 or into day 2, with a couple who’d be targeted on day 3 that’d surprise no one if any became bigtime players. But there’s nothing quite like going for the gold, and he has the extra high picks in the first 2 rounds where his draft would be nowhere near one & done like others who’d have to trade a 2nd (and maybe more) to move up in round 1 to get the same player.

Anyway, while anything’s possible, it’s looking pretty unlikely any WR is getting taken top 3, and still possible none will go top 9, so he’ll have the opportunity to get the best one in this class…if the first one taken ends up being the best. 

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55 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well between the alleged interest in Mike Williams before he was tagged, the leaked Jets inquiry on Metcalf, and the outright public offer for Hill, I’d say it’s a position he’s again targeted in a big way this spring.

It's clear he’s not staying pat with 3 WRs + Mims. That doesn’t necessarily mean drafting as early as possible, but those aren’t the interest areas of someone who’s just playing the value game of dollars and/or draft points per yard. Quite the contrary, since all 3 of those would be sacrificing value in favor of greater certainty.

I’ve heard it said plenty that the WR value in this draft is either later down in round 1 or into day 2, with a couple who’d be targeted on day 3 that’d surprise no one if any became bigtime players. But there’s nothing quite like going for the gold, and he has the extra high picks in the first 2 rounds where his draft would be nowhere near one & done like others who’d have to trade a 2nd (and maybe more) to move up in round 1 to get the same player.

Anyway, while anything’s possible, it’s looking pretty unlikely any WR is getting taken top 3, and still possible none will go top 9, so he’ll have the opportunity to get the best one in this class…if the first one taken ends up being the best. 

From your lips to the Gods 'O Canton's ears...may JD take the best wideout on his big board at #10.

You might have taken a peek at some of my previous posts and seen I've advocated taking WR at 10.   

When it comes to developing a QB that you've taken with the 2nd overall pick in the draft.  Sometimes you just have to compromise purely picking on positional value.  When your QB has struggled...and thrown for only 9 TDs.   You have to make him your primary focus and try to help him get up to speed.  

I guess I've grown disconsolate-dispirited...to say the least...and wonder if Sauce and Edge-OL are higher on that positional value basis for JD.  Of course I don't know what the positional value is on JD's board.  I do know that Jets haven't drafted a WR in round 1...since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. 

I certainly hope for Edge-WR as the two 1st round picks.   

I don't know if some of your motivation to respond to my post is to "cheer me up"...well...you have. 

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16 hours ago, rtnelson said:

Had to go watch some Jameson Williams highlights after this, and the dude is unbelievable.  A lot of his big catches were him running past 2 guys that were wearing Georgia and LSU uniforms.  It's hard to argue that any bigger test could have been put in front of him in 21' and he looked like he played with a different speed than the DBs he was up against.

When it comes to the ACL tear, I think at this point, if you think he's the best receiver in the class you have to take him at 10.  (If that's where you want to go with the pick)  By mid-season he should be in the fold doing his thing.  Assuming he's a personality fit with the Jets' plans, I can't see how you could take another guy over him if you're looking for game changing playmaking ability at the position.  Which apparently they are due to the whole Hill fiasco.

Have a feeling if he doesn’t blow his knee out we’d draft him at 4.  

Now our problem is given his knee 4th is too high and I’m not so sure he’ll be available at 10.  Or lower with a trade down

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well between the alleged interest in Mike Williams before he was tagged, the leaked Jets inquiry on Metcalf, and the outright public offer for Hill, I’d say it’s a position he’s again targeted in a big way this spring.

It's clear he’s not staying pat with 3 WRs + Mims. That doesn’t necessarily mean drafting as early as possible, but those aren’t the interest areas of someone who’s just playing the value game of dollars and/or draft points per yard. Quite the contrary, since all 3 of those would be sacrificing value in favor of greater certainty.

I’ve heard it said plenty that the WR value in this draft is either later down in round 1 or into day 2, with a couple who’d be targeted on day 3 that’d surprise no one if any became bigtime players. But there’s nothing quite like going for the gold, and he has the extra high picks in the first 2 rounds where his draft would be nowhere near one & done like others who’d have to trade a 2nd (and maybe more) to move up in round 1 to get the same player.

Anyway, while anything’s possible, it’s looking pretty unlikely any WR is getting taken top 3, and still possible none will go top 9, so he’ll have the opportunity to get the best one in this class…if the first one taken ends up being the best. 

I think Douglas takes the draft into account during the free agency period. If he’s being aggressive in the veteran WR market despite potentially having his choice of WR’s at 10, perhaps he’s not a big fan of this WR class.

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13 minutes ago, GreenReaper said:

From your lips to the Gods 'O Canton's ears...may JD take the best wideout on his big board at #10.

You might have taken a peek at some of my previous posts and seen I've advocated taking WR at 10.   

When it comes to developing a QB that you've taken with the 2nd overall pick in the draft.  Sometimes you just have to compromise purely picking on positional value.  When your QB has struggled...and thrown for only 9 TDs.   You have to make him your primary focus and try to help him get up to speed.  

I guess I've grown disconsolate-dispirited...to say the least...and wonder if Sauce and Edge-OL are higher on that positional value basis for JD.  Of course I don't know what the positional value is on JD's board.  I do know that Jets haven't drafted a WR in round 1...since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. 

I certainly hope for Edge-WR as the two 1st round picks.   

I don't know if some of your motivation to respond to my post is to "cheer me up"...well...you have. 

I’d been hoping for edge/wr for some time, but admittedly it’s based on position not prospect.

There are certain positions I’d cross off my list in the top 4 (or 10) unless some other plan is already in the works. e.g. OL in the absence of already having a trade worked out to move Fant/Becton; S for any reason at #4; C anywhere in the 1st round; etc. Reasons vary for the individual positions, but in the end it’s still about maximizing the tools they have to work with.

  • Drafting a position like C when a 1st team AP UFA can’t get a $15MM/yr contract is just stupid at a time when part-time players get $10MM/yr deals, and edge rushers well into their 30s cost $17-20MM per on multi-year deals: overpaying a FA iOL by $2MM/year or more makes far more sense.
  • Likewise using such a premium resource to draft any position the team already has filled, like OT (and not filled by a total longshot like expecting last year’s 6th rounder to start at LT all year just because he once looked good in mop-up duty for a couple weeks in Dec); especially for positions that don’t come on & off the field (QB being the lone exception because there may not be 20 walking the planet with which a team can win a SB).
  • If you’re not taking a premium position, at a position the roster has nobody proven but for a few games, just trade the pick and move down if that’s all they’re going to do (or trade the exiting starter whose spot is getting replaced). At least then if they’re taking a position where a realistic starter’s already in place, they’d still get another good pick for a prospect who’d actually fill an unfilled position. 

Anyway, such prerequisites are filled by OT and QB when we (literally, not figuratively) are without one. Since that’s out for us this year, pass in the absence of some trade. Otherwise what qualifies are EDGE, WR, CB, and DT: the positions that garner contracts in excess of $20MM/year (if not in the $25-30MM/year range for the very best).

Positions where even somewhat-letdown prospects still get $15-18MM/year veteran deals because of position demand. Let someone else burn that $20-30MM/year pick ($35-45MM/year if you’re talking QBs) on a starter they hope will be worth $12-14MM/year if he becomes a HOF-like starter. 

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8 minutes ago, derp said:

I think Douglas takes the draft into account during the free agency period. If he’s being aggressive in the veteran WR market despite potentially having his choice of WR’s at 10, perhaps he’s not a big fan of this WR class.

I’m sure he has, but then trading the 10th pick (and more) for Hill is still using the 10th pick on a WR. 

But yeah, to your point, if he was able to sign an untagged Mike Williams, that’d easily free up his first couple picks to draft non-WRs; then WRs are not even in the conversation in their draft room no matter who’s there and it become purely a pick for another position or a pick to trade. 

I don’t think he’d do that, though, unless he’d seriously identified the position as a team need. No one’s trading for a WR who needs a $20-30MM/yr contract just to free up a #10 pick so he can take a DT there, for example. Just re-sign FF or ink someone else and that frees up using a high pick on that position, too. 

This is beyond fan perceived need or desire: he’s targeted a “WR1” starter with 2-3 guys so far, so if he can’t sign or trade for a veteran he wanted for this year for his QB I’d be surprised if he just let the draft come to him at WR in the 2nd/3rd rounds. But I’m not in the room so really I’ve no idea what he’s thinking, and “surprised” is relative, seeing how I was surprised he traded up for AVT and was further surprised by Moore in the 2nd right after that.

Other thing to consider is perception: if he turns pick #10 into a really good WR, that’s the other half of what he got for Adams. Despite the mounting lost games, it’d go a long way rep-wise if on paper he turned an overrated box safety - who needed a huge contract and was voicing displeasure publicly, mind you - into probowl/upper level starters at G and WR (and still had $ change leftover to upgrade another meh signing into another starter, like Tomlinson, or just a proven TE instead of another roster-bubble guy, without feeling anything extra on the cap).

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14 hours ago, Icer said:

Simms past two years

 

2020
WR #5 - Tee Higgins "He's the premier jump-ball guy in the draft"
WR #4 - KJ Hamler "Hollywood Brown makes me feel more comfortable about him"
WR #3 - Henry Ruggs III "He's a game-changer...a lot like Tyreek Hill"
WR #2 - Justin Jefferson “One of the can’t-miss prospects in the whole draft”
WR #1 - CeeDee Lamb “DeAndre Hopkins’ size, but Jarvis Landry with the ball in his hands”

2021
WR #6 Terrace Marshall Jr (LSU) - "aka Justin Jefferson Jr"
WR #5 Kadarius Toney (Florida) - "He and Ja'Marr Chase are the most dangerous with the ball in their hands."
WR #4 Jaylen Waddle (Alabama) - "I like him better than I liked Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy."
WR #3 Dyami Brown (UNC) - "This is my guy. There was nobody that could run with him."
WR #2 DeVonta Smith (Alabama) - "His physicality was the most pleasant surprise of all."
WR #1 Ja'Marr Chase (LSU) - "He's a slam dunk. He's the safest and the best. He has everything."

Doesn't look that bad in hindsight, but not perfect either

I'd say he was spot-on with his #1's & 2's.  Lamb & Jefferson way over the other WRs.  Chase & Smith not too shabby.  Not much diff from a Chase/Waddle.    

 

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32 minutes ago, derp said:

I think Douglas takes the draft into account during the free agency period. If he’s being aggressive in the veteran WR market despite potentially having his choice of WR’s at 10, perhaps he’s not a big fan of this WR class.

i think thats the nfls stance in general this year.  There are teams that are resetting at the position because of 2 points.  1) Every WR class coming out is at minimum pretty good, and most of them are deep. 2) this years class is deep, just not deep with high end talent.  So teams that have traded elite talent at WR will be able to really beef up their depth at WR in this draft (good for a team like the packers who will probably go with a the whole is greater than the sum of the parts philosophy). 

 

The jets were aggressive going for a big time wr so they are going to be looking for someone with elite potential as they feel good about their depth of Davis, Moore, Berrios.  They would love to add an elite talent to be the number 1 and then add another guy later on for depth, but doesnt look like so far that will happen.  

Seattle has balked at DK talks and now are putting out there they want to sign him to an extension immediately. If he gets moved at all it will be draft night.  So JD will likely have to go into the draft and look to trade down and take one of the top WR's in the middle of the first (In a perfect world) or in a less than perfect scenario trade up from rd 2.  They will still probably add 2 through the draft but will have to be more aggressive going about it than they wanted to be. 

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12 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’m sure he has, but then trading the 10th pick (and more) for Hill is still using the 10th pick on a WR. 

But yeah, to your point, if he was able to sign an untagged Mike Williams, that’d easily free up his first couple picks to draft non-WRs; then WRs are not even in the conversation in their draft room no matter who’s there and it become purely a pick for another position or a pick to trade. 

I don’t think he’d do that, though, unless he’d seriously identified the position as a team need. No one’s trading for a WR who needs a $20-30MM/yr contract just to free up a #10 pick so he can take a DT there, for example. Just re-sign FF or ink someone else and that frees up using a high pick on that position, too. 

This is beyond fan perceived need or desire: he’s targeted a “WR1” starter with 2-3 guys so far, so if he can’t sign or trade for a veteran he wanted for this year for his QB I’d be surprised if he just let the draft come to him at WR in the 2nd/3rd rounds. But I’m not in the room so really I’ve no idea what he’s thinking, and “surprised” is relative, seeing how I was surprised he traded up for AVT and was further surprised by Moore in the 2nd right after that.

Other thing to consider is perception: if he turns pick #10 into a really good WR, that’s the other half of what he got for Adams. Despite the mounting lost games, it’d go a long way rep-wise if on paper he turned an overrated box safety - who needed a huge contract and was voicing displeasure publicly, mind you - into probowl/upper level starters at G and WR (and still had $ change leftover to upgrade another meh signing into another starter, like Tomlinson, or just a proven TE instead of another roster-bubble guy, without feeling anything extra on the cap).

Obviously he wants a WR. I’m not getting at asset allocation so much, beyond the veteran WR market (contract + picks) requiring more assets than picks alone. Talent level equal you take the rookie because the salary is better.

To me, that he’s really working on getting a veteran despite likely having his choice of WR’s in this class at 10 and almost certainly having that option at 4, signals he doesn’t like the draft prospects at WR very much. There’s also a need for immediate impact which is a question with rookies more than veterans. 

I just don’t think we can equate “I want a veteran WR” with “I will draft a WR high if I don’t get a veteran WR”. He punted on the second veteran tackle in 2020 because he knew he was going to draft one, for example. Could easily punt the veteran WR market this year if he wanted to draft a WR.

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15 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

i think thats the nfls stance in general this year.  There are teams that are resetting at the position because of 2 points.  1) Every WR class coming out is at minimum pretty good, and most of them are deep. 2) this years class is deep, just not deep with high end talent.  So teams that have traded elite talent at WR will be able to really beef up their depth at WR in this draft (good for a team like the packers who will probably go with a the whole is greater than the sum of the parts philosophy). 

 

The jets were aggressive going for a big time wr so they are going to be looking for someone with elite potential as they feel good about their depth of Davis, Moore, Berrios.  They would love to add an elite talent to be the number 1 and then add another guy later on for depth, but doesnt look like so far that will happen.  

Seattle has balked at DK talks and now are putting out there they want to sign him to an extension immediately. If he gets moved at all it will be draft night.  So JD will likely have to go into the draft and look to trade down and take one of the top WR's in the middle of the first (In a perfect world) or in a less than perfect scenario trade up from rd 2.  They will still probably add 2 through the draft but will have to be more aggressive going about it than they wanted to be. 

I’d feel better about them moving down for pretty much anyone unless London runs next week and is in the low 4.5’s or better.

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10 minutes ago, derp said:

I’d feel better about them moving down for pretty much anyone unless London runs next week and is in the low 4.5’s or better.

if london ran better than the 4.5s I think they would definitely take him at 10 provided he made it there. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

if london ran better than the 4.5s I think they would definitely take him at 10 provided he made it there. 

 

Depending on where he runs he could be in play at 4, that’s the big question about him, but I’d have no issue at 10 if he’s in the low 4.5’s. Even the mid 4.5’s if he ran at the combine but have to adjust the pro day times. I’m still not convinced he’s not a 4.6 guy, which doesn’t make him undraftable but I’m not taking a 4.6 guy at ten.

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7 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

if london ran better than the 4.5s I think they would definitely take him at 10 provided he made it there. 

 

If your top 2 edge not there, why not London at #4 if he runs in the 4.4's, if he's your top WR?

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

Depending on where he runs he could be in play at 4, that’s the big question about him, but I’d have no issue at 10 if he’s in the low 4.5’s. Even the mid 4.5’s if he ran at the combine but have to adjust the pro day times. I’m still not convinced he’s not a 4.6 guy, which doesn’t make him undraftable but I’m not taking a 4.6 guy at ten.

agreed. Honestly just in general, I dont feel that any of these wrs currently are a top 10 pick.  I think they may be pushed up there due to positional demand, but talent wise i dont think anybody here demands a top 10 talent grade.  I could make an argument for Williams pre injury if he was able to really test and go through some more of a predraft process, but even that i wouldnt defend really hard. 

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3 minutes ago, section314 said:

If your top 2 edge not there, why not London at #4 if he runs in the 4.4's, if he's your top WR?

It may be the move to make, but just in my opinion there isnt enough there for me to take him top 5.  He's not a top 5 talent to me.  Just my opinion. 

Now you can argue if he ran like a 4.41 on top of all the things he's done on tape you could make the argument to take him at 4 based on the weak talent at the top of this draft. The problem id still have is that if he runs a 4.4 that his speed doesnt match the tape at all. On tape he's not a 4.4 guy, Im not even sure he's a 4.5 guy honestly.  

Its not a death sentence to run high 4.5s or 4.6s obviously considering how many successful wrs there are that ran slow.  but to be a top 5 pick? hard to swallow that gamble. 

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Don't sleep on Jahan Dotson as a real breakthrough type receiver in this class (not in the top of the 1st round though). He is the one receiver which I watched more than any other (Penn State), so I do have a bias, but he has some unique skillsets which would serve the Jets well. His intangibles include:

-Great route runner.

- He does not need a perfectly thrown ball (I am looking at you Zach). He can adjust on the fly and has great recognition how to get a ball that is off his route.

-Great hands. His hands are tremendously strong and just appear sticky.

-He can run in pads. He ran a 4.43 at the Combine, but he looks faster than that when it relates to the field.

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16 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

Simms rated Wilson ahead of Jones and Davis Mills wasn’t even in his top 5 ranking last year 

 

why do people think this guy knows anything?

I like how you so certain Wilson won't be better than both. Especially since there is plenty of talk in Houston about drafting a QB....you know because Mills is just too good for them. Meanwhile, Mac Jones wasn't allowed to throw the ball when it got too windy. So good luck with that type of arm strength playing games in December the rest of his career. 

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39 minutes ago, derp said:

Obviously he wants a WR. I’m not getting at asset allocation so much, beyond the veteran WR market (contract + picks) requiring more assets than picks alone. Talent level equal you take the rookie because the salary is better.

To me, that he’s really working on getting a veteran despite likely having his choice of WR’s in this class at 10 and almost certainly having that option at 4, signals he doesn’t like the draft prospects at WR very much. There’s also a need for immediate impact which is a question with rookies more than veterans. 

I just don’t think we can equate “I want a veteran WR” with “I will draft a WR high if I don’t get a veteran WR”. He punted on the second veteran tackle in 2020 because he knew he was going to draft one, for example. Could easily punt the veteran WR market this year if he wanted to draft a WR.

Could be.

Could also be that he likes (or perhaps doesn't dislike) the talent level but - like many others, it seems - doesn't have such certainty which are most likely to be what he hopes.

Also it could be that he wants additional help now for his young QB, instead of additional valid rationalization/excuse-filled games, and rookie WRs are hard enough to predict without further predicting which are going to be lights-out right away.

Not just because he wants that help now (primary importance) but who wants to be the GM suffering through more "you suck" comments because your top 10 WR is slower to develop while some random 2nd (or 3rd) rounder is crushing it as a rookie (and you're expected to know which one it was without the benefit of hindsight lol). Even more so in a draft where, until the last week or so, no one had any of the WRs ranked in the top 10 overall in what was already a comparatively weak top 10 at other positions.

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54 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

agreed. Honestly just in general, I dont feel that any of these wrs currently are a top 10 pick.  I think they may be pushed up there due to positional demand, but talent wise i dont think anybody here demands a top 10 talent grade.  I could make an argument for Williams pre injury if he was able to really test and go through some more of a predraft process, but even that i wouldnt defend really hard. 

Wholeheartedly agree. And in my opinion, positional demand pushing them up is a big mistake. It’s why I prefer the veteran market. Good WR classes aren’t the exception nowadays, they’re the norm. And when I look back at prior classes, guys going in the 20’s who were among the first guys drafted in “bad” classes were better prospects than guys in this class IMO.

I get the Jets have a need but man this isn’t the class to force a draft pick. Figure out an alternative and get a guy next year or something. I think that’s why the veteran market is appealing. But absent that, prefer a Christian Watson in the second (know he might not be there but I think he will) and hope he forces his way into the field or develop him if he doesn’t move to someone at ten where it’s basically the same situation because you really can’t be sure any of these guys is going to produce early.

Also past doesn’t necessarily predict future but Douglas has pretty exclusively taken good size adjusted athletes in the first three rounds. None of the WR’s projected day one really fit into that box right now. Olave is the closest and he’d be wild at ten. London could get there if he does pro day stuff, Wilson won’t, Doesn’t mean Douglas won’t deviate but it does make me wonder.

58 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

It may be the move to make, but just in my opinion there isnt enough there for me to take him top 5.  He's not a top 5 talent to me.  Just my opinion. 

Now you can argue if he ran like a 4.41 on top of all the things he's done on tape you could make the argument to take him at 4 based on the weak talent at the top of this draft. The problem id still have is that if he runs a 4.4 that his speed doesnt match the tape at all. On tape he's not a 4.4 guy, Im not even sure he's a 4.5 guy honestly.  

Its not a death sentence to run high 4.5s or 4.6s obviously considering how many successful wrs there are that ran slow.  but to be a top 5 pick? hard to swallow that gamble. 

The only thing in London’s corner if he runs faster than he looks is his basketball background. It’s a bit of a reach but I think feasible that with more dedicated training for explosiveness versus the endurance you need to have for basketball he’d get faster. To me if he doesn’t run he’s a 4.6 guy at best who plays like it though and that’s something I gamble on starting day two at the earliest. Very curious what happens to his stock if he doesn’t run.

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8 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Could be.

Could also be that he likes (or perhaps doesn't dislike) the talent level but - like many others, it seems - doesn't have such certainty which are most likely to be what he hopes.

Also it could be that he wants additional help now for his young QB, instead of additional valid rationalization/excuse-filled games, and rookie WRs are hard enough to predict without further predicting which are going to be lights-out right away.

Not just because he wants that help now (primary importance) but who wants to be the GM suffering through more "you suck" comments because your top 10 WR is slower to develop while some random 2nd (or 3rd) rounder is crushing it as a rookie (and you're expected to know which one it was without the benefit of hindsight lol). Even more so in a draft where, until the last week or so, no one had any of the WRs ranked in the top 10 overall in what was already a comparatively weak top 10 at other positions.

I think any of those cases are reasonable, I wouldn’t be surprised if all of them are true, any one is enough reason to not be so sure they’re drafting someone at 10, and they all fit the overall idea that maybe we pump the brakes a little on the idea of a WR at 10 if he’s not able to acquire a guy via trade.

It’s entirely possible he will take a guy at 10 as well, but I think it’s far more up on the air than the more binary idea that seems to be prevalent where it’s a trade or a WR at 10.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Wholeheartedly agree. And in my opinion, positional demand pushing them up is a big mistake. It’s why I prefer the veteran market. Good WR classes aren’t the exception nowadays, they’re the norm. And when I look back at prior classes, guys going in the 20’s who were among the first guys drafted in “bad” classes were better prospects than guys in this class IMO.

I get the Jets have a need but man this isn’t the class to force a draft pick. Figure out an alternative and get a guy next year or something. I think that’s why the veteran market is appealing. But absent that, prefer a Christian Watson in the second (know he might not be there but I think he will) and hope he forces his way into the field or develop him if he doesn’t move to someone at ten where it’s basically the same situation because you really can’t be sure any of these guys is going to produce early.

Also past doesn’t necessarily predict future but Douglas has pretty exclusively taken good size adjusted athletes in the first three rounds. None of the WR’s projected day one really fit into that box right now. Olave is the closest and he’d be wild at ten. London could get there if he does pro day stuff, Wilson won’t, Doesn’t mean Douglas won’t deviate but it does make me wonder.

The only thing in London’s corner if he runs faster than he looks is his basketball background. It’s a bit of a reach but I think feasible that with more dedicated training for explosiveness versus the endurance you need to have for basketball he’d get faster. To me if he doesn’t run he’s a 4.6 guy at best who plays like it though and that’s something I gamble on starting day two at the earliest. Very curious what happens to his stock if he doesn’t run.

Yes but whats working against us is the fact that the front office and staff want to give zach as many weapons as possible in order to help his development, I dont think they would force a WR at 10, but I do think we can see a trade up for one from the 2nd round back into the first.  I wouldnt like it, but I could see them being aggressive for a guy they like.  If london starts to slip to the teens, or if they feel like watson will be gone in round 2 I think we may see a trade up unless we are able to move down from 4 or 10 which I am praying we are able to do. 

Watson in the 2nd or a trade down and London at like 15-20 would be absolutely ideal, but I just dont see either being a realistic scenario with everything going on.  I also agree with the sentiment about athleticism  and draft stock of JD but i think the coaching staffs opinion on players is really weighing heavily on the draft.  If Lafluer and Saleh love a kid, i would imagine JD will pull the trigger even if his grade isnt as high. 

 

In terms of London, the thing about his speed is that the league already knows he's probably not going to run well.  I think as long as he doesnt run a 4.8 or higher his stock wont tank. His tape is good enough to know what youre getting.  Simms isnt wrong that London may be one of the most prolific 50/50 ball receivers we've seen in a long time.  I watched him again recently and I came away watching the tape being like "my dear lord he makes EVERY contested catch, and with BEAUTIFUL body control and form". its just insanely natural for him, and he's a backshoulder monster. So while he may never end up in some top 5-10 wr in the game category, youre getting a big bodied tough as nails WR who is excellent at using his body to shield defenders. Theres value in that to teams. 

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4 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Yes but whats working against us is the fact that the front office and staff want to give zach as many weapons as possible in order to help his development, I dont think they would force a WR at 10, but I do think we can see a trade up for one from the 2nd round back into the first.  I wouldnt like it, but I could see them being aggressive for a guy they like.  If london starts to slip to the teens, or if they feel like watson will be gone in round 2 I think we may see a trade up unless we are able to move down from 4 or 10 which I am praying we are able to do. 

Watson in the 2nd or a trade down and London at like 15-20 would be absolutely ideal, but I just dont see either being a realistic scenario with everything going on.  I also agree with the sentiment about athleticism  and draft stock of JD but i think the coaching staffs opinion on players is really weighing heavily on the draft.  If Lafluer and Saleh love a kid, i would imagine JD will pull the trigger even if his grade isnt as high. 

 

In terms of London, the thing about his speed is that the league already knows he's probably not going to run well.  I think as long as he doesnt run a 4.8 or higher his stock wont tank. His tape is good enough to know what youre getting.  Simms isnt wrong that London may be one of the most prolific 50/50 ball receivers we've seen in a long time.  I watched him again recently and I came away watching the tape being like "my dear lord he makes EVERY contested catch, and with BEAUTIFUL body control and form". its just insanely natural for him, and he's a backshoulder monster. So while he may never end up in some top 5-10 wr in the game category, youre getting a big bodied tough as nails WR who is excellent at using his body to shield defenders. Theres value in that to teams. 

It's interesting, I do think this is a case where football guys would benefit from utilizing basic probability principles. If you want a weapon right now you double dip on day two IMO. We've discussed how they're not likely to take a day one guy and a day two guy, if that's excessive allocation then take two guys on day two instead of a guy on day one and a guy on day three. Teams are so bad at drafting receivers.

I wouldn't mind a trade up into the first so much, I'd probably prefer a trade down from 10 to acquire capital instead of give up capital, especially since if they stick and pick at 10 and it's not a wide receiver I feel like it's going to be a defensive tackle or a linebacker which - while important - defensive tackle is getting old and I don't think top ten on a linebacker is a good use of draft capital. I'd be lying if I told you I didn't think Jordan Davis was a fun pick but I'd also be lying if I told you I didn't think Jordan Davis was a risky pick. I guess Sauce too but I doubt he's there at ten.

I almost think if you're going to let the staff get after their opinion on guys then do something like Watson and Robinson just to get some variety in skill sets. I still think for a team that's almost never going to be in four wide, two high picks risks being overweight on wide receivers. And as much as Davis can be cut after this year...this offseason doesn't make that contract look so bad.

I think if London runs in the 4.6's he probably still goes in the first but there's a chance he slips to the second. Have we ever seen a receiver in the 4.7's go in the first? I can't even think of a 4.6's guy honestly. I know they know he's probably slow but I don't know if the people doing mock drafts genuinely know he's probably slow. Kiper probably thinks he's a high 4.4's guy. Jeremiah is comparing him to Mike Williams who ran high 4.4's at his pro day I believe. I'm probably wrong but I think London's sitting at closer to 20 than 10 right now with the lack of speed, the injury, and not running yet. If he doesn't run at all I think he stays around there, and again if he's 4.6's or lower I see a bubble guy. Hopkins showed more downfield ability in college, ran a 4.57, and went late first in a comparably weak WR class. Even if speed is iffy for evals I don't think we've seen teams discount it except for guys who are absolute behemoths like Mike Evans, and even he ran 4.53 at 230. Kicking way back, USC Mike Williams who was also an absolute jump ball monster and went 10th ran a 4.57 too. I really can't think of a 4.6+ first round guy.

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